多策略对冲基金两大巨头千禧年（Millennium）和Citadel在2025年为投资者交出了略超10%的回报，但 表现逊于该领域多家规模较小的同行。 据英国金融时报称，知情人士透露，两家机构在经历2025年前几个月的市场动荡后，通过严格的风险管 理和多元化交易策略实现业绩反转。 市场环境的改善为这一复苏提供了支撑。特朗普在年中放弃了许多最激进的关税措施，推动股票指数在 年底前录得强劲涨幅。标普500指数和英国富时100指数2025年分别上涨16.5%和21.5%。 分析认为，这种市场波动性的降低和随后的上涨趋势，为多策略基金创造了更有利的交易环境。 在多策略对冲基金领域，规模较小的机构2025年明显占据优势。ExodusPoint以18%的回报率领跑，较两 大巨头高出约8个百分点。Schonfeld旗舰基金12.5%的涨幅同样超过千禧年和Citadel。 1月2日，据英国金融时报，Izzy Englander执掌的千禧年和Ken Griffin旗下的Citadel在经历上半年短暂亏 损后实现反弹，全年分别录得10.5%和10.2%的涨幅。两家机构年初曾因特朗普关税政策引发的市场震 荡而短暂陷入负收益区间。 ...

Core Insights - The emerging prediction market Polymarket has gained attention for a peculiar bet on whether "Jesus Christ will return to Earth in 2025," which has attracted approximately $3.3 million in funding over the past year, with most investors betting against the return [1] - The bet's peak popularity in April allowed investors who wagered against the return to achieve a 5.5% annualized return before fees, surpassing the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds, typically seen as a safe investment benchmark [1] - As 2025 approaches, Polymarket announced the victory of the "no" camp on January 1, and new bets for Jesus's return by the end of 2026 have opened, with a probability of only 2%, suggesting a potential return of over 5700% for those betting on "yes" [1][3] Summary of Prediction Markets - Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi are viewed as innovative platforms that combine high-risk betting with collective intelligence to provide probabilities for significant real-world events, such as election outcomes or war outbreaks [2] - However, these platforms are also filled with bizarre contracts, including bets on movie performances and social media activity, which some critics argue distract from the value of genuine predictive markets [2] - The peculiar bet on Jesus's return has sparked discussions about its purpose, with some users speculating it may serve as a tax loss strategy, while others criticize it as a trivial market [2] Historical Context - The application of secular odds to religious matters is not without historical precedent, as Blaise Pascal's "Pascal's Wager" from the 17th century used probability calculations as a rationale for belief in God [2] - The ongoing speculation about the Messiah's return has deep roots in Christian history, despite biblical warnings that the exact timing is unknown [2]

Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Investment Trends - The AI infrastructure investment is entering a new phase, with traditional leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon seeing stagnant stock prices since last summer, while new entrants like Broadcom are emerging [1][2] - Investors are shifting focus to companies that can support global computing power regardless of chip type, with memory producers like Micron experiencing significant stock price increases [2] - The "power sector" within AI infrastructure is also transforming, with utility stocks stagnating while gas turbine suppliers like GE Vernova continue to rise [2] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The GLP-1 weight loss drug market is undergoing a notable transition, with Eli Lilly outperforming the market while Novo Nordisk's stock has lost nearly half its value, leading to a 33% downward revision in earnings expectations for 2026 [3] - Investment focus is shifting towards new weight loss products expected to be approved next year, as the biopharmaceutical sector transitions from obesity drugs to a "Cardiology Renaissance" [3] Group 3: Retail Industry Evolution - The boundaries between offline sales, online commerce, and advertising are increasingly blurring, with analysts highlighting opportunities for e-commerce platforms to generate revenue through advertising and marketing agreements [4] - Retailers are exploring alternative revenue sources such as media and membership models, emphasizing the importance of delivery speed and value propositions [4] Group 4: Chinese Economic Growth - Goldman Sachs economists predict that China's economic growth will exceed market consensus, driven by technological advancements and a strong export position, even amidst tariff challenges [6] Group 5: Productivity and Profit Growth - The rise in technology-driven productivity is expected to support economic growth, although there is a risk of "jobless expansion" due to labor shortages caused by immigration restrictions [7] - Long-term productivity improvements are seen as essential to offset the impacts of an aging workforce and declining birth rates [7] Group 6: Alternative Investments - The private credit market is expected to outperform private equity in 2025, continuing to attract retail investor funds, while the cryptocurrency market is expanding with companies like Coinbase and Robinhood positioned favorably [8] Group 7: Military and Defense Sector - The defense sector is experiencing an evolving militarization, with the U.S. Space Force favoring innovators in drone and satellite technology, and Europe potentially needing up to $160 billion in investments over the next five years to enhance military capabilities [9] Group 8: Robotics and Autonomous Vehicles - Advancements in technology are enhancing the capabilities of humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles, with significant profit growth anticipated for industrial tech companies like Tesla [10] - China is actively building capacity in the humanoid robot supply chain and is leading in the autonomous vehicle sector, with projections indicating a $47 billion market for Robotaxis by 2035 [10] Group 9: Nuclear Energy and Rare Earths - The demand for clean energy is reviving interest in nuclear power, which had been sidelined due to past accidents, as it is seen as a potential source of electricity for the AI revolution [11] - Rare earth metals are becoming critical components in technology, with China currently dominating this sector, presenting supply chain opportunities [11] Group 10: Policy Uncertainty - Policy is expected to play a significant role in market dynamics entering 2026, with debates around the Federal Reserve's next steps and leadership potentially dominating market sentiment [13] - Key catalysts affecting market direction include Supreme Court rulings on tariffs, upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, and significant political events [13]

2026年首个交易日，AI芯片供应链股票强势上涨，在美股大盘走势分化的背景下成为市场焦点。台积 电美股和台股双双创下历史新高，三星电子韩股大涨7.2%刷新收盘纪录，带动整个AI板块逆市走强。 周五（1月2日），韩国首尔综合指数收涨2.3%，历史上首次突破4300点大关，主要受三星电子HBM4业 务获客户认可的消息提振。台积电则受益于2nm制程量产兑现及AI芯片需求激增的双重利好。与此同 时，纳斯达克指数当日小幅收跌，标普500指数微涨，凸显AI相关股票的独立行情。 除了台积电、三星电子之外，周五多只AI相关股票录得涨幅。Sandisk、Micron、Western Digital、 Intel和Constellation Energy位列涨幅榜前列。英伟达、Broadcom等万亿美元市值科技公司也出现上 涨。 日前，台积电在官网低调宣布，其2nm制程（N2）技术已按计划于2025年第四季度投入量产，标志着 全球半导体行业正式迈入2nm时代。这一技术采用第一代纳米片晶体管架构，相比N3E工艺，在同等功 耗下性能提升10%-15%，在同等速度下功耗降低25%-30%。 市场对AI基础设施投资的持续乐观情绪推动了这 ...

金银在开年首日高开低走，交易员正在评估下周启动的商品基准指数权重调整可能带来的市场冲击。黄金、白银刚刚结束自1979 年以来表现最佳的年度涨势，但即将面临被动型基金的集中抛售压力。 周五（1月2日）交易时段，黄金一度上涨1.9%，但在美国交易时段回吐大部分涨幅，收盘仅上涨0.2%至每盎司4328.35美元。白银 早盘最高涨幅达4%，随后回落至1.3%，报每盎司72.61美元。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通12月12日发布的研报量化了抛售规模：白银将遭遇最沉重的抛售，卖盘规模约占其期货市场总未平 仓合约的9%，报告特别强调今年白银的抛售压力"比去年更为突出"。黄金的抛售规模预计约占其期货市场总未平仓合约的3%。 分析指出，尽管交易员预期美联储进一步降息和美元走弱将支撑贵金属今年继续上涨，但近期的指数再平衡可能对价格构成压 力。据悉，彭博商品指数的年度权重重置将导致逾60亿美元的黄金期货和超过50亿美元的白银期货在为期五天（1月8日至14日） 的展期窗口内被卖出。 TD Securities高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali警告，未来两周内Comex白银市场将有相当于未平仓合约总量13%的头寸被抛 售，"将 ...

华见早安之声 2026年欧股开门红，美股反弹艰难，芯片股力撑但特斯拉拖累。 泛欧股指收创历史新高，ASML涨7%。三大美股指仅纳指未收涨、盘中曾齐跌。特斯拉收跌2.6%，软件股抵消多数芯片股涨势，Salesforce跌超4%；英伟 达涨超1%，三星劲敌美光涨10%。白宫推迟对部分家庭用品征关税后，家庭用品零售商RH涨近8%。 中概指数涨超4%，百度大涨15%，阿里涨超6%。离岸人民币低开高走，盘中涨超百点、逾两年半来首次涨破6.97。 美债收益率盘中V形反弹，30年期美债收益率创四个月新高。美元盘中逼近逾一周高位，全周反弹。比特币盘中较日低涨近3%、逼近9.09万美元，以太坊一 度涨超5%。 盘中纽约期银涨超5%，黄金涨近2%后一度转跌。伦铝创逾三年新高。原油三连阴，盘中曾跌超1%，本周勉强连涨两周。 亚洲时段，2026港股开门红，恒科收涨4%，壁仞科技一度涨近120%，百度大涨9%，人民币继续走强。 要闻 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 《求是》杂志特约评论员：改善和稳定房地产市场预期。 中芯国际同意定向增发3.57亿股，以公司股权置换得中芯北方股权，国家集成电路基金所持 ...

Core Insights - The hedge fund industry is expected to achieve its strongest performance in at least five years in 2025, driven by market volatility from the Trump administration's trade war, which has created lucrative opportunities for traders [1][2] - Bridgewater Associates' flagship fund, Pure Alpha II, recorded a historic return of 34%, marking a significant recovery from the previous years' returns of less than 3% [1][4] - The overall performance of hedge funds in 2025 is characterized by a mix of strategies, with event-driven funds leading the pack [5][6] Performance Summary - **Top Performing Funds**: - Melqart Opportunities Fund achieved a return of 45.1%, the highest among major hedge funds [5] - Bridgewater's Asian fund recorded a return of 37%, while both Pure Alpha II and Bridgewater China achieved 34% [4] - D.E. Shaw's Oculus fund returned 28.2%, and its Composite fund achieved 18.5% [6] - **Market Context**: - The strong performance of hedge funds is attributed to significant gains in the U.S. stock market, particularly driven by artificial intelligence themes, and the volatility in bond and currency markets due to trade tensions [2] - In 2025, the three major U.S. stock indices recorded double-digit annual gains for the third consecutive year, a trend not seen since 2019-2021 [2] Strategy Performance - **Event-Driven Funds**: - Event-driven strategies have shown flexibility and adaptability, with Melqart Opportunities leading at 45.1% and Kite Lake Special Opportunities at 17.9% [5] - **Multi-Strategy Funds**: - D.E. Shaw's flagship funds outperformed market benchmarks, with Oculus achieving a return of 28.2% and Composite at 18.5% [6] - Other multi-strategy funds displayed varied performance, with Dymon at 18.1% and Millennium at 10.5%, which did not outperform the S&P 500 [6][8] - **Equity Strategies**: - Equity long/short strategies showed significant divergence, with Soroban Opportunities at 25% and Anson Investments Master at 21.2% [7] - Other equity funds like Schonfeld's Fundamental Equity and Marshall Wace's Eureka recorded returns of 16.5% and 11.6%, respectively [7] Quantitative Strategies - **Quantitative Funds**: - Winton's multi-strategy fund had the lowest return at 7.4%, while AQR Capital Management's Apex Strategy achieved a 19.6% increase [8]

特斯拉第四季度交付量同比下降16%，至418,227辆，预估为440907辆。相比之下，比亚迪在第四季度 和全年电池电动车销量均实现增长，全年交付接近226万辆电动车，而特斯拉为164万辆。 $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ 去年的汽车销量下降了8.6%，使其在全球电动车制造商排名中明显落后于中国的 $比亚迪股份 (01211.HK)$ （BYD）。 特斯拉在周五发布的声明中表示，第四季度交付量同比下降16%，至418,227辆，预估为440907辆。特 斯拉四季度交付量低于媒体调查的分析师预期以及公司自身目标。 相比之下，比亚迪在第四季度和全年电池电动车销量均实现增长，全年交付接近226万辆电动车，而特 斯拉为164万辆。 马斯克通过大力宣传其长期推进的自动驾驶出租车（robotaxi）业务进展，将外界注意力从特斯拉不断 下滑的销量上转移开来。不过，尽管公司在年底开始进行无人驾驶测试，目前消费者只能在美国奥斯汀 和旧金山湾区，从数量有限的车辆中叫车，而且前排仍配有安全监督员。 比亚迪在去年进一步拉开了与特斯拉的差距。此前在2024年，比亚迪在整体表现上仅略逊于特斯拉。虽 然比亚迪在当年第四季度交付的纯电动车数 ...

特斯拉去年的汽车销量下降了8.6%，使其在全球电动车制造商排名中明显落后于中国的比亚迪 （BYD）。 特斯拉在周五发布的声明中表示，第四季度交付量同比下降16%，至418,227辆，预估为440907辆。特 斯拉四季度交付量低于媒体调查的分析师预期以及公司自身目标。 特斯拉在年末通过宣传Cybercab来提升市场期待。这是一款双座紧凑型车型，配有蝴蝶门。马斯克在 2024年底首次展示的原型车没有方向盘和踏板，但特斯拉董事会主席Robyn Denholm在10月接受媒体采 访时表示，如果监管机构有要求，公司将会在量产车型中配备这些部件。 相比之下，比亚迪在第四季度和全年电池电动车销量均实现增长，全年交付接近226万辆电动车，而特 斯拉为164万辆。 周五美股盘前，特斯拉股价上涨1.5%，在2025年最后几个交易日连续六天下跌后有所回升。该股去年 全年上涨了11%。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑 到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其 特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 比亚迪在去年进一步拉开了与特斯拉的差距。此前在202 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 特斯拉第四季度交付量418227辆，预估440907辆。 ...