Group 1: Economic Indicators and Data Releases - China's industrial output for October is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, while retail sales are projected to grow by 3% [4][6] - The real estate development investment in China for the first ten months is anticipated to decline by 13.9% [4][6] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, indicating a slight rise in inflation pressure [4][8] Group 2: Key Financial Events - The U.S. Treasury will auction $125 billion in government bonds next week, including $58 billion in 3-year bonds on Monday [11][15] - Major earnings reports are expected from companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com, with Tencent's revenue projected to increase by approximately 14% year-on-year [5][14] - The G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting will take place from November 11 to 12 in Canada [12] Group 3: Corporate Developments - AMD is set to hold its annual Analyst Day on November 11, which is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for its stock price, with a target price increase to $300 [10] - Huawei will host an operating system conference on November 14-15, focusing on the openEuler project [13] - The eighth China International Import Expo concluded on November 10, showcasing international trade opportunities [13]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America predicts that there will be no further interest rate cuts during Powell's tenure, contrasting sharply with market expectations for a December rate cut [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of official economic data, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's decision-making and market expectations [2]. - Key economic indicators such as the October CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be absent, leaving the Fed without direct inflation and consumption guidance before the December meeting [2]. - Powell's metaphor of "driving in the fog requires slowing down" illustrates the current policy predicament, emphasizing the need for more data to justify any rate cuts [2]. Group 2: Labor Market Analysis - Alternative data sources are crucial for understanding the U.S. economy in the absence of official statistics, with Bank of America indicating a "low turnover" state in the labor market, suggesting gradual increases in market slack without a collapse [3]. - The unemployment rate is seen as a decisive factor for Fed decisions, with a threshold of 4.3% or below indicating low likelihood for further rate cuts [4]. - Current labor market conditions show weak hiring but manageable layoff rates, with initial unemployment claims remaining at non-worrisome levels [6]. Group 3: Fed Officials' Sentiment - Recent communications from Fed officials lean slightly hawkish, supporting the view that a pause in rate cuts is justified [7]. - Officials express concerns about inflation, with some indicating skepticism about the need for a December rate cut [7]. - The collective cautious tone among Fed officials diminishes market expectations for consecutive rate cuts [7]. Group 4: Economic Forecasts - Bank of America anticipates that the federal funds rate will remain in the range of 3.75-4.0% until late 2025, with potential cuts beginning under a new chair in mid-2026 [9]. - Inflation is expected to remain elevated due to tariff-related pressures, with core PCE growth projected around 3% from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 [9]. - The labor market is forecasted to slow moderately, with the unemployment rate expected to rise gradually, peaking at 4.5% in 2026 [9]. - The overall economic outlook remains constructive, with growth projected at 1.8% for 2025 as uncertainties diminish and fiscal stimulus takes effect [9].

与此同时，另两大力量正在酝酿，可能共同重塑市场格局。首先，美国近期的选举结果揭示了选民 对"可负担性"问题的强烈不满，这股"主街的愤怒"预示着政府可能会加强干预以控制价格，从而挤压企 业利润。其次，Hartnett强调，美国最高法院可能推翻现行关税的裁决，将成为影响市场的重要变量， 可能削弱通胀预期，并为新兴市场带来结构性机会。 综合来看，这些来自信贷市场、政治风向和政策变局的信号，共同构成了Hartnett关于"顶部是一个过 程"的核心论据。尽管他认为触发大规模抛售的"离场"信号尚未出现，但一系列复杂的早期预警指标已 经亮起，要求投资者保持高度警惕，并重新评估资产配置。 AI泡沫的裂缝：从股权狂收看信贷紧缩 美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在其最新的报告中指出，市场顶部的形成是一个缓慢发酵的过 程，而非一蹴而就的瞬间事件。 他认为，当前市场正清晰地展现出这一过程的诸多迹象，其核心线索包括人工智能巨头日益紧张的信贷 状况、源自"主街"民众对生活成本的政治压力，以及美国关税政策可能出现的颠覆性转变。Hartnett并 精辟地指出："顶部是一个过程，底部是一个瞬间"。 最新的动态显示，AI" ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent 5% pullback in the US stock market is a typical year-end seasonal fluctuation within the AI cycle, rather than an unusual signal indicating the end of the upward trend [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Despite the market pullback, there remains potential for further gains before year-end, supported by seasonal factors, the early stage of the AI investment cycle, and relatively light institutional positioning [1][2] - Kapa anticipates a 5-10% increase in the market by year-end, driven by favorable seasonal factors and broad market participation [1][2] - Current cautious sentiment among institutional investors, who believe the market has peaked, may create opportunities for significant upward movement in the remaining trading days of the year [1][2] Group 2: AI Investment and Economic Impact - The core logic supporting continued market growth is based on the belief that the AI revolution is still in its early stages, with institutional investors yet to fully allocate to AI themes [2] - AI investments, while substantial in nominal terms, represent less than 1% of GDP, indicating a more moderate impact compared to historical infrastructure investment peaks [5] Group 3: Valuation and Positioning - Current market valuations and investor positioning are still below historical highs, providing potential support for future market performance [6] - The Nasdaq 100 index is trading at a 46% discount compared to the internet bubble period, suggesting that earnings are supporting valuations [6] - Investor positioning has shifted to a "light" state, indicating that there is significant capital waiting to enter the market once sentiment turns positive [6]

Core Viewpoint - A legal challenge against the Trump administration's key tariff powers is leading to market expectations of a significant, albeit possibly temporary, reversal of trade barriers [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Challenge and Market Reaction - The market's expectation of the Trump administration winning the IEEPA tariff case has significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from approximately 40% to 27% following initial court comments perceived as unfavorable [2]. - The outcome of this legal challenge is a key variable influencing current market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Potential Market Impact - If the court ultimately overturns the tariffs imposed under IEEPA, it could trigger a trading surge, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations, an increase in stock prices (especially small-cap stocks), and a strengthening of certain emerging market currencies like the Mexican peso and Brazilian real [1][4]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to drop from 12.5% to around 9% if IEEPA tariffs are overturned, which would benefit countries heavily reliant on trade with the U.S. [4][6]. Group 3: Beneficiaries and Losers - The primary beneficiaries of a potential IEEPA overturn would be countries with high trade dependency on the U.S., such as Vietnam and Mexico, while the EU and the UK would benefit the least [6]. - Other countries like India, which has not reached a trade agreement with the U.S., could see significant tariff reductions [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Market performance on the day of the hearing indicated a favorable sentiment towards small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index outperforming the S&P 500 [8]. - The foreign exchange market saw the Mexican peso and Brazilian real rise, aligning with the analysis of potential winners [8].

中国10月CPI同比 0.2%，前值 -0.3%。 中国10月PPI同比 -2.1%，前值 -2.3%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government is experiencing a prolonged shutdown, leading to a halt in the release of key economic data, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming December meeting [2][3] - The Labor Statistics Bureau has postponed the release of the October CPI report, raising concerns that it may not be published at all, further complicating discussions on interest rate decisions [2][3] - The absence of official data may provide a rationale for policymakers concerned about inflation to maintain interest rates in December, despite market expectations leaning towards a rate cut [2][3] Data Vacuum and Decision-Making Challenges - The current situation poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve, which relies on data for decision-making; the lack of recent employment and inflation data undermines the foundation for policy decisions [3] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, and the absence of official data may strengthen the position of those focused on inflation risks [3][4] Alternative Indicators - In the absence of official data, some private sector employment reports are helping to fill the gaps, but alternative inflation indicators are harder to obtain and less comprehensive [4] - The Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" model suggests that the October CPI year-on-year increase may be similar to September's lower-than-expected 3% [4] Impact of Government Shutdown - The timing of the government shutdown's resolution will be crucial for the Fed's December decision, as it will determine how quickly economic data can be updated [5][6] - Various scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential impact of data recovery on policy decisions, ranging from receiving outdated reports to having multiple recent employment reports available before the December meeting [6] Scenarios for Employment Reports - Scenario one involves receiving an outdated September employment report, which is unlikely to influence a rate cut decision [6] - Scenario two considers the release of both September and October reports, which could complicate the decision if the unemployment rate remains stable [6] - Scenario three anticipates the release of three complete employment reports, where the unemployment rate will significantly influence the Fed's decision on whether to maintain or cut rates [6]

Core Insights - Nvidia is actively seeking to secure more chip supply from TSMC due to strong demand driven by the AI boom, highlighting TSMC's critical role in the AI supply chain [1][2] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expressed confidence in the company's growth, stating that their business is becoming stronger month by month, and emphasized the importance of TSMC in Nvidia's success [1][3] - TSMC's advanced manufacturing capabilities are in high demand globally, with Nvidia aiming to become a major customer for TSMC's 3nm process, potentially accounting for about 30% of TSMC's total output [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - The visit to Taiwan by Huang was primarily to secure more wafers for Nvidia's Blackwell series chips, as capacity constraints are a significant challenge in meeting the high market demand for Nvidia's products [1] - Huang's statement "Without TSMC, there is no Nvidia" underscores the deep strategic dependence Nvidia has on TSMC for both semiconductor manufacturing and advanced packaging services [3] - Nvidia's relationship with TSMC is deepening, with Huang's fourth visit to Taiwan this year indicating a strong commitment to maintaining this partnership amid increasing competition in the AI accelerator market [3]

Core Insights - The synthetic stablecoin USDX issued by Stable Labs has experienced a significant de-pegging from its $1 value, raising concerns about potential cascading effects on decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols [1][3] - Major DeFi protocols, including Lista DAO and PancakeSwap, have initiated emergency measures to monitor the situation and mitigate risks associated with the USDX crisis [1][3] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the de-pegging of USDX, Lista DAO launched an emergency governance vote (LIP 022) to authorize forced liquidation of assets linked to MEV Capital and Re7 Labs [3][4] - Lista DAO executed a flash loan to recover over 2.9 million USD1 tokens, aiming to contain the crisis before it escalated further [1][3] - PancakeSwap has alerted users to monitor their positions in affected liquidity pools, indicating the widespread impact of the USDX situation [5][6] Group 2: Underlying Issues - Speculation regarding the cause of USDX's de-pegging includes a potential link to a $128 million theft from Balancer, which may have forced Stable Labs to liquidate its Bitcoin and Ethereum short positions [7][8] - Concerns have been raised about the management of USDX, with questions about the lack of active portfolio management and the apparent failure of major borrowers to repay loans [7][8] Group 3: Company Background - Stable Labs, the issuer of USDX, claims to comply with EU MiCA regulations and has a notable investment background, having raised $45 million at a $275 million valuation [8] - Despite its significant backing from well-known investors, Stable Labs has remained silent regarding the USDX crisis, contributing to market uncertainty [8]

在一场围绕联邦政府预算的激烈博弈中，法律天平暂时向行政部门倾斜。美国最高法院已批准特朗普政 府的请求，允许其暂缓发放约40亿美元的食品援助资金，这一决定将直接影响全美4200万低收入人口的 生计，并加剧了因政府停摆引发的社会经济不确定性。 据媒体8日报道，最高法院于周五发出指令，暂时中止了下级法院一项强制要求政府全额支付本月 SNAP福利（通常被称为食品券）的裁决。此举意味着，这项原定于当天到期的"补充营养援助计划"资 金缺口的司法判令被按下暂停键。该计划每月总开支约为85亿至90亿美元。 发布这项行政中止令的是Ketanji Brown Jackson大法官。她指出，此举旨在给予下级上诉法院更多时 间，来审议政府提出的正式申诉。根据指令，在位于波士顿的第一巡回上诉法院就政府的请求作出裁决 两天后，这项中止令将自动失效。 由民主党前总统奥巴马任命的John McConnell指责共和党籍的特朗普政府是出于"政治原因"扣留SNAP 福利。他命令农业部动用一个拥有233.5亿美元资金、由关税收入支持的儿童营养项目，来弥补SNAP的 资金缺口。 对此，特朗普政府迅速向最高法院提出紧急申诉。司法部律师警告称，若不阻止 ...