Economic Data - China's January Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [3] - Eurozone's January Manufacturing PMI final value is reported at 49.4, showing continued contraction [3] - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for January is anticipated to rise to 48.3 from 47.9, suggesting a potential stabilization in manufacturing [3] Central Bank Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its policy rate to 3.85% from 3.6% [4] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both expected to maintain their current interest rates during their upcoming meetings [9] Major Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports are expected from major companies including Disney, Pepsi, Merck, and Pfizer, with a focus on their performance in the current economic climate [4][26] - Tech giants like Google and Amazon will report on their cloud business growth, which is critical for assessing AI monetization capabilities [6][26] Geopolitical Events - Ongoing tensions in Iran are highlighted, with the US increasing military presence in the region, which may impact global markets [12] - Japan and Thailand are set to hold significant elections on February 8, which could influence regional political stability [15][17] IPOs and Market Movements - Muyuan Foods is set to launch its IPO in Hong Kong, potentially raising up to 14 billion HKD (approximately 1.8 billion USD) [28] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures, reflecting a tightening in trading conditions [11] Commodity Market Changes - CME has raised the margin requirements for gold from 6% to 8% and for silver from 11% to 15%, indicating a move to reduce leverage in the precious metals market [10] - The Chinese government has implemented a temporary 5% import tax on whiskey starting February 2 [19]

Core Viewpoint - Binance attributes the record $19 billion liquidation event on October 10 to a combination of macroeconomic risks, high leverage, and liquidity exhaustion, denying that core system failures were the main cause, although this explanation has not quelled industry concerns regarding its marketing strategies and market influence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 10, global markets were under pressure due to tariff-related news, leading to over $100 billion in unliquidated Bitcoin derivatives and a rapidly shrinking order book, which together triggered a chain liquidation [2][3]. - The sell-off was self-reinforcing, as market makers initiated automatic risk controls and reduced exposure, causing liquidity to vanish from the order book, with Kaiko data indicating that buy depth nearly disappeared during peak volatility [2]. - The turmoil extended beyond the cryptocurrency market, with the U.S. stock market losing approximately $1.5 trillion that day, marking the largest single-day drop for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices in six months [2]. Group 2: Platform Issues and Compensation - Binance acknowledged two specific platform incidents during the crash but asserted that these did not cause broader market volatility. The first incident involved a slowdown in internal asset transfer systems, affecting transfers between spot, wealth management, and futures accounts, which was attributed to database performance issues under increased traffic [3]. - The second incident involved temporary index deviations for USDe, WBETH, and BNSOL, occurring after most liquidations had already taken place, which Binance claims was due to thin liquidity and delays in cross-exchange rebalancing [3]. - Binance has compensated users over $328 million and initiated additional support plans to stabilize affected participants, with total compensation reaching approximately $600 million post-crash [3]. Group 3: Leadership Statements - Binance co-founder Zhao Changpeng denied that the platform was a key driver of the liquidation wave, labeling ongoing accusations as "far-fetched" and confirming that users affected by platform issues had been compensated [4][5]. - Zhao Changpeng, who resigned as CEO in November 2023, acknowledged failures in maintaining effective anti-money laundering protocols, with Binance Holdings agreeing to hire an independent compliance overseer [5]. - OKX CEO Xu Mingxing criticized Binance's "irresponsible marketing activities" for triggering the crash, particularly pointing to the promotion of high-yield products linked to the USDe stablecoin, which he claimed led to a "leverage cycle" that exacerbated the market's vulnerability [6].

特朗普提名沃什执掌美联储，引发市场对政策方向的重新定价。这位曾任美联储理事的候选人长期主张大幅削减央行资产负债表，这一立场与特 朗普反复要求压低长期借贷成本的诉求形成潜在冲突，令投资者开始评估这一政策张力将如何影响债市走向。 缩表立场成为核心关切 沃什在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事，此后成为央行部分政策的著名批评者，特别是多轮量化宽松政策使美联储持有的美国国债和其他资产 在峰值时达到近9万亿美元。 周五，长期国债收益率上涨，30年期与2年期国债收益率差扩大至1.35个百分点，接近2021年以来的最高水平。大型资管机构认为，这一市场波动 反映出交易员对沃什近年表态的消化：他批评美联储在2008年金融危机和2020年疫情期间的大规模购债行为。 PGIM固定收益联席首席投资官Greg Peters表示："你有一个反对资产负债表扩张的人，却处在希望降低利率的背景下。这是一个张力点，这就是 市场关注的焦点，这就是收益率曲线陡峭化的原因。" 不过，亿万富翁投资者、沃什的长期导师德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）周五对媒体表示，这位政策制定者并非永久"鹰派"，"我见过他在货 币政策上两个方向 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent market volatility, the core drivers of the market have not changed significantly since the beginning of the year, according to Goldman Sachs' trading head Mark Wilson [1][5]. Market Volatility - The market experienced extreme volatility this week, with Microsoft suffering its second-largest single-day market value loss, dropping 10%, while SAP fell 16% [2]. - Silver saw a dramatic single-day drop of 30%, with the SLV ETF trading volume exceeding $32 billion, and the GLD ETF recorded over $30 billion in trading volume for two consecutive days [3][4]. Key Market Drivers - Key market drivers such as the continued strength of the dollar, sustained enthusiasm for AI investments, robust U.S. economic growth, and geopolitical shifts remain unchanged [1][6][8]. - Year-to-date market performance reflects these trends, with rare earths up 35%, nuclear stocks up 21%, and European defense stocks up 20% [8]. Investor Positioning - Investor positioning has reached extreme levels, with total exposure at the 99th percentile, indicating overcrowding in holdings [1][9]. - The semiconductor and semiconductor equipment sectors now account for 12% of hedge fund net risk exposure, up from just 1% two years ago, while the software sector has decreased from 18% to 3% [9]. Annual Core Views - Wilson maintains six core views established in December, including the notion that the AI narrative has reached a critical juncture, and the upcoming Federal Reserve chair appointment could be pivotal for the market [10][11]. - The importance of hard assets, particularly those linked to infrastructure demand, is emphasized, alongside the need for diversification in stock market investments [11]. Emerging Themes - Emerging themes include UK real estate stocks trading at over 30% discounts to net asset value, challenges for European equities amid a weakening dollar, and the significant shift in hedge fund exposure from software to semiconductors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant sell-off over the weekend, with Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 to its lowest level since April of the previous year, continuing a month-long downward trend. This sell-off was triggered by the nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, negatively impacting both cryptocurrencies and precious metals like gold and silver, as market bets on dollar depreciation began to unravel [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell sharply, reaching a low of $75,709.88, with a one-day drop of 10% [1]. - Ethereum and Solana saw even steeper declines, with drops of 17% and over 17%, respectively [1]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased by approximately $111 billion within 24 hours [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sell-off occurred in a context of thin liquidity and limited buying interest, leading to a total decline of over 30% for Bitcoin [3]. - Approximately $1.6 billion in long and short positions were liquidated, primarily in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with most liquidations happening in the last four hours [4][3]. - Retail investor interest is reported to be extremely low, with trading volumes expected to remain subdued for the next one to two quarters [6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran may also influence Bitcoin prices, as recent events have raised concerns in the market [9]. - Delays in new regulatory frameworks for the cryptocurrency industry have further weakened interest in digital assets, as the Senate committee shifted focus away from cryptocurrency legislation [9]. - Despite Waller's previous positive remarks about Bitcoin, his nomination appears to have reversed the upward momentum in both precious metals and cryptocurrencies [9]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver have regained favor among investors concerned about fiat currency, while Bitcoin has failed to attract significant inflows despite the recent surge in gold prices [7]. - The lack of buying interest highlights the challenges Bitcoin faces in its role within broader investment portfolios, as it struggles to serve as both a momentum trade and a hedge against currency depreciation [8].

Core Viewpoint - Ford is exploring a potential joint venture with Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xiaomi to produce electric vehicles in the U.S., which could facilitate the entry of Chinese automakers into the U.S. market [1] Group 1: Joint Venture Discussions - Ford has held talks with Xiaomi regarding the establishment of a joint venture in the U.S. for electric vehicle manufacturing [1] - The discussions are in preliminary stages, and Ford is also in contact with other Chinese automakers like BYD for potential collaborations in the U.S. [1] Group 2: Company Responses - Ford has denied the report, stating that it is "completely false and has no basis in fact" [2] - Xiaomi did not respond to requests for comment, and BYD declined to comment [2] Group 3: Market Challenges - Ford's CEO, Jim Farley, is a supporter of Chinese electric vehicles and has imported a Xiaomi model for personal use [3] - Analysts suggest that Ford is particularly vulnerable to competition from Chinese electric vehicles, as it has discontinued several key models in anticipation of an electric vehicle transition that has stalled [3] - Discontinued models include the compact crossover Ford Escape and the midsize SUV Ford Edge, with no replacements available until at least 2027 when a new low-cost electric vehicle platform is planned [3] Group 4: Stock Market Reaction - Following the news, Ford's stock price fell by 0.22% to $13.85 in after-hours trading [4]

爱泼斯坦的幽灵，仍在美国权力金字塔的上空徘徊。 美国司法部在周五宣布，已完成对与已故性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦相关文件的审查，并公布了迄今为 止规模最大的一批邮件档案。这批文件不仅再度揭示了爱泼斯坦与全球权贵的广泛交往，也将比尔·盖 茨、埃隆·马斯克等当代标志性人物重新推上舆论风口。 其中最具爆炸性的内容，来自一封疑似由爱泼斯坦发送给自己的邮件，信中声称，比尔·盖茨曾在与"俄 罗斯女孩"发生性关系后，试图隐瞒性病，并请求爱泼斯坦协助提供抗生素，悄悄让妻子服用。 邮件写道： "你随后含着眼泪恳求我删除有关你性病的邮件，请求我提供抗生素，好让你可以偷偷给梅 琳达服用……" 如果属实，这不仅是私人丑闻，更触及权力、金钱与道德的危险交汇点。 美国司法部强调，这批文件的公布并未带来大量全新事实，尤其是在爱泼斯坦与特朗普关系方面。但真 正的变化并不在"是否有新名字"，而在"细节密度"与"权力结构的横向连接"。 比尔·盖茨的发言人迅速否认了相关指控，称这些说法"荒谬且完全不实"，并指这是爱泼斯坦在关系破 裂后试图"陷害和抹黑"的行为。 事实上，盖茨与爱泼斯坦的关系早已不是新鲜话题。过去几年，盖茨本人已多次承认与爱泼斯坦有过会 ...

Core Insights - The recent release of documents by the U.S. Department of Justice has revealed details about the relationship between Goldman Sachs partner and General Counsel Kathy Ruemmler and Jeffrey Epstein [1] Group 1: Relationship Details - Ruemmler referred to Epstein as "Uncle Jeffrey" in emails from 2016 to 2019, indicating a personal connection [2][4] - She received various gifts from Epstein, including shoes, handbags, and wine, with a specific mention of an Apple Watch band in 2018 [2][4] Group 2: Political and Public Relations Involvement - Ruemmler provided political and public relations support to Epstein, including drafting a response for Donald Trump regarding their relationship during the 2016 election [5] - The documents illustrate how Epstein leveraged connections with elite individuals like Ruemmler to maintain his social standing [5] Group 3: Goldman Sachs' Response - Goldman Sachs has expressed unwavering support for Ruemmler, stating that her professional interactions are normal and that her role in the company remains unchanged [6] - CEO David Solomon has praised Ruemmler as an exceptional legal advisor and confirmed that she disclosed relevant information to the company in 2023 [6]

Core Insights - OpenClaw, a new desktop agent, has gained significant popularity in tech communities, enabling users to interact with AI in a natural chat interface and perform complex tasks [1][4] - The product's design allows for local operation, enhancing privacy and security, which has led to a surge in demand for MacMini as a dedicated device for running OpenClaw [4][17] - The rise of OpenClaw has sparked interest from cloud service providers, with companies like Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud quickly launching dedicated services and templates for OpenClaw deployment [4][5] Group 1: Product Features and Market Response - OpenClaw can perform a variety of tasks, from comparing car dealership quotes to managing email subscriptions and flight bookings, showcasing its versatility [1] - The agent's ability to maintain long-term memory and context allows it to proactively send reminders and alerts, likened to a "24-hour standby Jarvis" [1] - The rapid adoption of OpenClaw has led to a proliferation of tutorials and guides, indicating strong community engagement and interest [1][4] Group 2: Financial Implications and Operational Costs - Users have reported high operational costs associated with OpenClaw, particularly due to its extensive use of API tokens, which can be quickly depleted [5][6] - Traditional chatbots consume fewer tokens per interaction compared to OpenClaw's autonomous operation, which can lead to significant expenses [6] - The need for efficient and cost-effective models is emphasized, as the performance of agents like OpenClaw heavily relies on underlying large models [6][7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Trends - The emergence of OpenClaw has intensified competition among desktop agents, with various players entering the market, including Manus and MiniMax [8] - The future of software is shifting towards a "thousand-end battle," where the focus will be on the capabilities of agents rather than just models [8] - Major tech companies like Apple and Microsoft are expected to evolve their AI offerings into comprehensive agents, leveraging their unique system-level access [10][11][12] Group 4: Hardware and Infrastructure Developments - The demand for dedicated hardware, such as MacMini, has surged due to its compatibility with OpenClaw, although it is not seen as a long-term solution [17][18] - New hardware solutions, including AI mini PCs and cloud-based "AI boxes," are emerging to provide cost-effective alternatives for users needing lightweight agents [20] - The competition for control over desktop agents is expected to intensify, with both software and hardware players vying for market share [20]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the acceleration of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, with emerging frontier technologies leading and supporting the rapid rise of future industries [1] - It highlights the importance of advancing national construction and the rejuvenation of the nation from a strategic perspective, while leveraging objective conditions and comparative advantages [1] - The article advocates for a steady and progressive approach to cultivate future industries, aiming for continuous breakthroughs in development [1]