不过，Tether在声明中并未解释利润或收入变动的具体原因。由于公司披露信息有限，外界难以准确判 断年度利润下降的驱动因素。 加密货币下行或拖累业绩 Tether通过发行数字代币获得资金，并将这些资金投资于旨在维持其USDT稳定币与美元挂钩的资产。 该公司将储备金投资于广泛的资产类别，包括加密货币。自去年10月以来，数字货币市场经历了一轮下 跌，这可能对Tether的投资收益构成压力。但由于公司披露范围有限，外界难以确切分析利润下滑的成 因。 全球最大稳定币发行商Tether在启动融资进程的同时，2025年利润出现显著下滑，这家即将跻身全球估 值最高私营公司行列的企业正面临盈利能力的考验。 Tether在近日发布的声明中披露，公司2025年实现利润100亿美元，较上一年的130亿美元下降23%。这 一业绩公布之际，该公司正在进行一轮融资，融资完成后其估值将位居私营公司前列。 Tether首席执行官Paolo Ardoino在新闻稿中表示： "2025年重要的不仅是增长规模，更是其背后的结构。USDT之所以扩张，是因为全球对美 元的需求越来越多地转向传统银行体系之外，特别是在金融系统缓慢、分散或难以接入的地 区 ...

英伟达公司首席执行官黄仁勋澄清了此前宣布的对OpenAI最高1000亿美元投资计划的性质，称这"从来 不是一项承诺"，公司将"逐个评估"每轮融资。 黄仁勋周日在中国台北对记者表示，"这从来不是一项承诺。他们邀请我们投资最高1000亿美元，当然 我们非常高兴和荣幸受到邀请，但我们将一步一步地投资。"这一表态回应了外界对该投资计划执行情 况的质疑。 此前据华尔街日报周五报道，这项9月宣布的投资计划已陷入停滞，英伟达内部一些人对该交易表示怀 疑。报道援引知情人士称，黄仁勋曾私下强调这份1000亿美元协议不具约束力，并批评OpenAI的商业 方式缺乏纪律性。 当被问及该报道似乎暗示他对OpenAI不满意时，黄仁勋周六表示"那是胡说"，并称"我相信OpenAI。他 们所做的工作令人难以置信。他们是我们这个时代最重要的公司之一。"这类循环投资安排持续引发市 场对AI需求真实性的担忧。 投资协议的非约束性质 根据9月签署的意向书，英伟达计划向OpenAI投资最高1000亿美元，用于支持新数据中心和其他人工智 能基础设施。该协议旨在帮助OpenAI建设容量至少10吉瓦的数据中心——相当于纽约市的峰值电力需 求——并配备英伟达 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bernstein analyst Mark C. Newman raised SanDisk's target price from $580 to $1000, a 72% increase, based on a projected EPS of $90.96 for FY2027, corresponding to a P/E ratio of only 11 times [1][10]. Financial Performance - SanDisk's Q2 FY2026 revenue reached $3 billion, a 31% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations of $2.673 billion by 13.2% [2]. - Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 52.1%, significantly above the market expectation of 42%, and operating margin reached 37.5%, surpassing the expected 24.4% [2]. - Non-GAAP EPS was reported at $6.20, exceeding the market expectation of $3.49 by 77.4% [2]. Margin Expansion Drivers - Margin expansion was driven by a significant increase in average selling price (ASP), which surged over 35% quarter-over-quarter, and a notable reduction in unit costs by approximately 9% [5]. - Factory startup costs decreased to $24 million from $72 million in the previous quarter, contributing to the overall cost reduction [5]. Q3 Guidance and Stock Catalyst - The Q3 guidance is expected to be a major catalyst for stock price increase, with projected revenue of $4.4 to $4.8 billion, indicating a 53% quarter-over-quarter growth [6]. - Non-GAAP gross margin guidance for Q3 is set at 65-67%, which would represent a 1490 basis point increase [6]. - Non-GAAP EPS is projected to reach $12-14, significantly higher than the analyst's base case estimate of $6.5 [6]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Earnings forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have been significantly raised to $38.92 and $90.96 per share, respectively, with the latter being 188% higher than market consensus [7]. - FY2026 revenue forecast is now $15.145 billion, up 28.8% from previous estimates, while FY2027 revenue is projected at $25.766 billion, a 43.9% increase [11]. Data Center Demand and AI Influence - SanDisk is strategically prioritizing supply allocation to data centers over PC/mobile devices, with data center revenue growing 64% quarter-over-quarter [8]. - Management has raised the outlook for data center demand growth to over 60% by 2026, driven by AI workloads [8][9]. Valuation and Market Position - The new target price of $1000 reflects an EV/FCF multiple of 10.3 times, which is 195% higher than market consensus [10]. - Despite a year-to-date stock increase of 127.2% and over 1100% in the past 12 months, the current valuation remains attractive due to future earnings growth potential [10].

这位同时投资了马斯克旗下五家公司的顶级投资人近日表示，市场仍严重低估了马斯克的价值，而SpaceX过剩的火箭运力将催生太空数据中心 这一可能的"史上最大市场机会之一"。 访谈视频亮点总结： 逆向投资的逻辑胜利： 2019年市场仅将SpaceX视为增长受限的火箭发射公司，Maguire凭借物理学背景预判了Starlink的技术可 行性，在市场普遍给出"零估值"时重仓，完成了从360亿到8000亿美金的认知变现。 "势能转换"的经营哲学： 马斯克不同于急于变现的常规CEO，他习惯在零收入状态下长期积累基础设施能力（如Gigafactory和 Starship），一旦技术跨越临界点，便会以年产百万或改写产业模型的方式释放惊人动能。 激光链路重塑全球通信： 依靠9000多颗卫星组成的真空激光通讯网，Starlink实现了比海底光缆更快的跨洲际数据传输速度，使 其从单纯的接入工具演变为承载全球长距离流量的核心数字基建。 D2D改写电信产业格局： 通过收购频谱与优化V3卫星，SpaceX的卫星直连手机技术（D2D）正处于爆发前夜，预计2028年将 实现大规模普及，甚至可能在未来五年内取代消费者固定网络成为公司最大的营收来 ...

Core Insights - Shaun Maguire from Sequoia Capital believes that SpaceX's upcoming IPO will be "the healthiest wealth creation event in history," with the company's valuation skyrocketing from $36 billion in 2019 to $800 billion [1][12] - The market is still significantly undervaluing Elon Musk's contributions, particularly regarding SpaceX's excess rocket capacity, which could lead to the emergence of space data centers as a major market opportunity [1][4] Investment Overview - Sequoia Capital has invested approximately $1.2 billion in SpaceX since 2019, with the current value of this investment estimated at $12 billion, yielding a tenfold return [3][30] - Maguire's investment decision was initially seen as "crazy" due to the limited growth potential of SpaceX at that time, as the market had assigned zero value to its Starlink satellite network and Starship rocket [3][6] Starlink Business Evolution - SpaceX's valuation increase is primarily driven by four phases of the Starlink business: 1. Consumer network reaching 9.2 million subscribers by the end of 2024 [3][7] 2. Expansion into the enterprise market, particularly with airlines [7][19] 3. Government and defense services through the Starshield product line [7][19] 4. The Direct-to-Cell service, which is expected to have 6 million subscribers by the end of 2024 and could surpass consumer network revenue by 2028 [8][21] Space Data Center Opportunity - The space data center initiative is seen as a significant opportunity for SpaceX, as the company anticipates excess launch capacity once Starship becomes operational in 2026 [4][9] - The demand for AI data centers on Earth is constrained by power, land, and regulatory issues, creating a mismatch with SpaceX's excess capacity [9][10] Musk's Unique Business Philosophy - Musk's approach differs from conventional CEOs, focusing on long-term infrastructure development before monetization, which allows for explosive growth once technological milestones are achieved [5][10] - Maguire emphasizes that Musk's ability to integrate hardware and infrastructure gives him a competitive edge in the AI race, as physical resources become increasingly critical [10][11] Cultural Impact of the IPO - The upcoming SpaceX IPO is expected to create a constructive wealth flow, as many employees are mission-driven and have been with the company for over 15 years, focusing on the company's goals rather than personal wealth [11][50] - The culture at SpaceX is characterized by a commitment to its mission, which may mitigate the negative effects often associated with sudden wealth [50][53]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market volatility, including a significant drop in stocks and a rebound in the dollar, has led to a record single-day plunge in silver prices, yet the macroeconomic logic driving the rise of gold and physical assets remains intact, according to Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar has declined by 12% since Trump's inauguration, which is seen as a policy-driven move to boost manufacturing in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin [2][4]. - Historical data shows that since 1970, the average decline in a dollar bear market is 30%, indicating ongoing long-term downward pressure on the dollar, which supports physical assets [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The traditional 60/40 stock-bond strategy is no longer suitable; instead, a "permanent portfolio" consisting of 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% gold, and 25% cash is recommended, which has shown impressive performance [6][7]. - The "permanent portfolio" strategy recorded a remarkable 23% return in 2025, marking the best performance since 1979 [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Hartnett suggests that the investment trends of the 2020s will be dominated by factors such as war, inflation, protectionism, and wealth redistribution, with gold prices reflecting negative real interest rates in the U.S. [10]. - The potential for a significant capital outflow exists if non-U.S. investors reduce their holdings in U.S. equities and government bonds by just 5%, which could lead to a $1.5 trillion capital outflow [12]. - Hartnett emphasizes that the great bull market in gold can only be ended by "greater events," and the current bullish sentiment may trigger a deleveraging risk in the first half of the year [14]. Group 4: 2026 Trading Strategy - Looking ahead, Hartnett maintains a contrarian view, suggesting that the reverse trade in 2026 may be to go long on bonds, despite acknowledging the risks associated with high global debt levels [17]. - The recommended trading strategy for 2026 includes a "BIG + MID" combination, focusing on Bitcoin, international stocks, gold, and mid-cap stocks, aiming to capture outperforming asset classes under a new macro paradigm [17].

松壑/文 2月1日起，腾讯元宝的10亿元推广红包投放在各微信群里快速蔓延，用户只要点红包进入元宝App就能 参与瓜分。 早上醒来，会发现微信群、朋友圈、公众号留言就被一串串"元宝口令"、"分享链接"刷屏，熟人关系网 络被拉成了一个又一个临时裂变的红包会场，甚至个别微信群主不得已来出面维持秩序，要求成员停止 分享。 满天红包的现象，放回腾讯的产品逻辑里审视，会显得格外突兀。 因为产品体验一直是被微信乃至腾讯最被珍视的底色。十年前刚刚坐稳国民级应用的时刻，张小龙们思 考的不是微信还能加点什么花哨功能，而是"对用户的时间占用太多了"。 产品逻辑上，腾讯和微信一直希望做得少而准，尽量不打扰，以此换取用户长期信任与注意力，哪怕是 开放微信广告都慎之又慎，哪怕是任何一项细微的改动创新，都要经过漫长的实验、内测和灰测。 第二是把原本相对独立的社交链路进行重组。元宝派在产品设计上，首次把微信与QQ两套社交矩阵打 通使用，这是过去很少有的跨链联动力度，这不仅带来了更强的导流压强，也基本是将压箱底的用户生 态资源给交了出来，足以看出腾讯此次的重视力度。 但腾讯为什么如此着急。 因为AI不是某一单点功能，它未来注定会重塑人和产品、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese electric vehicle market is facing challenges in early 2026 due to the reduction of purchase tax incentives and seasonal fluctuations, leading to anxiety within the industry. However, GAC Aion's BU reported a significant sales increase of 63.9% year-on-year in January, indicating potential resilience and growth opportunities in the sector [1]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Goals - GAC Aion BU plans to launch at least five new models in 2026 and aims to introduce no fewer than 30 new and updated models over the next 2-3 years [1]. - The goal for GAC Group is to achieve over 2 million units in sales for its self-owned brands by 2030, with Aion expected to contribute significantly, targeting over 1 million units [1]. - The establishment of Aion BU is seen as a core engine for GAC's breakthrough in the new energy vehicle sector, necessitating a departure from its "comfort zone" [1]. Group 2: Organizational Changes - The formation of Aion BU represents a strategic integration within GAC, aiming to eliminate internal resource competition and enhance collaboration across research, marketing, and distribution [2]. - The initial sales rebound in January is attributed to the organizational benefits of this integration, which has shortened decision-making chains and improved responsiveness to market changes [2]. Group 3: Channel Integration - As of the end of January, Aion and Haobo have completed the integration and upgrade of 254 service outlets across 147 cities, transitioning from independent high-end showrooms to combined "Aion + Haobo" service centers [3]. - This integration allows dealers to leverage Aion's existing customer base, improving cash flow and operational efficiency, which is deemed more practical than maintaining a high-end brand image [3]. Group 4: Product Development and Marketing - Aion BU's collaboration with Huawei is a significant development, with plans to launch smart models co-created with Huawei, addressing gaps in intelligent driving technology [4]. - Aion is shifting its marketing strategy to focus on local engagement, exemplified by partnerships with regional sports teams, aiming to connect with consumers in lower-tier cities [4]. - The overseas market has shown promising growth, with a reported 17.2% increase in sales in 2025, indicating potential for expansion beyond domestic markets [4]. Group 5: Challenges Ahead - Aion BU faces the challenge of maintaining product competitiveness while navigating the complexities of brand positioning between Aion and Haobo [5]. - The company must continue to convert organizational reforms into tangible competitive advantages in a highly competitive market environment [5].

Economic Data - China's January Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [3] - Eurozone's January Manufacturing PMI final value is reported at 49.4, showing continued contraction [3] - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for January is anticipated to rise to 48.3 from 47.9, suggesting a potential stabilization in manufacturing [3] Central Bank Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its policy rate to 3.85% from 3.6% [4] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both expected to maintain their current interest rates during their upcoming meetings [9] Major Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports are expected from major companies including Disney, Pepsi, Merck, and Pfizer, with a focus on their performance in the current economic climate [4][26] - Tech giants like Google and Amazon will report on their cloud business growth, which is critical for assessing AI monetization capabilities [6][26] Geopolitical Events - Ongoing tensions in Iran are highlighted, with the US increasing military presence in the region, which may impact global markets [12] - Japan and Thailand are set to hold significant elections on February 8, which could influence regional political stability [15][17] IPOs and Market Movements - Muyuan Foods is set to launch its IPO in Hong Kong, potentially raising up to 14 billion HKD (approximately 1.8 billion USD) [28] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures, reflecting a tightening in trading conditions [11] Commodity Market Changes - CME has raised the margin requirements for gold from 6% to 8% and for silver from 11% to 15%, indicating a move to reduce leverage in the precious metals market [10] - The Chinese government has implemented a temporary 5% import tax on whiskey starting February 2 [19]

Core Viewpoint - Binance attributes the record $19 billion liquidation event on October 10 to a combination of macroeconomic risks, high leverage, and liquidity exhaustion, denying that core system failures were the main cause, although this explanation has not quelled industry concerns regarding its marketing strategies and market influence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 10, global markets were under pressure due to tariff-related news, leading to over $100 billion in unliquidated Bitcoin derivatives and a rapidly shrinking order book, which together triggered a chain liquidation [2][3]. - The sell-off was self-reinforcing, as market makers initiated automatic risk controls and reduced exposure, causing liquidity to vanish from the order book, with Kaiko data indicating that buy depth nearly disappeared during peak volatility [2]. - The turmoil extended beyond the cryptocurrency market, with the U.S. stock market losing approximately $1.5 trillion that day, marking the largest single-day drop for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices in six months [2]. Group 2: Platform Issues and Compensation - Binance acknowledged two specific platform incidents during the crash but asserted that these did not cause broader market volatility. The first incident involved a slowdown in internal asset transfer systems, affecting transfers between spot, wealth management, and futures accounts, which was attributed to database performance issues under increased traffic [3]. - The second incident involved temporary index deviations for USDe, WBETH, and BNSOL, occurring after most liquidations had already taken place, which Binance claims was due to thin liquidity and delays in cross-exchange rebalancing [3]. - Binance has compensated users over $328 million and initiated additional support plans to stabilize affected participants, with total compensation reaching approximately $600 million post-crash [3]. Group 3: Leadership Statements - Binance co-founder Zhao Changpeng denied that the platform was a key driver of the liquidation wave, labeling ongoing accusations as "far-fetched" and confirming that users affected by platform issues had been compensated [4][5]. - Zhao Changpeng, who resigned as CEO in November 2023, acknowledged failures in maintaining effective anti-money laundering protocols, with Binance Holdings agreeing to hire an independent compliance overseer [5]. - OKX CEO Xu Mingxing criticized Binance's "irresponsible marketing activities" for triggering the crash, particularly pointing to the promotion of high-yield products linked to the USDe stablecoin, which he claimed led to a "leverage cycle" that exacerbated the market's vulnerability [6].