在知名风险投资机构Andreessen Horowitz（A16z）于近期举办的"2026创想"（Big Ideas for 2026）线上研讨会中，其合伙人团队描绘了一幅AI技术 演进的清晰蓝图：人工智能正从一个等待指令的聊天工具，进化为一个能够主动执行任务的"代理"（Agent）。 a16z AI应用投资团队合伙人Marc Andrusko大胆预测，"到2026年，作为AI应用主要用户界面的输入框将会消亡。"他认为，下一代AI应用将不再需 要用户繁琐地输入指令，而是通过观察用户行为，主动介入并提供待审核的行动方案。 这一转变的背后，是AI商业价值的巨大跃迁。Andrusko指出，"我们过去关注的是每年三四千亿美元的全球软件支出，而现在我们兴奋的是仅美国 就存在的13万亿美元劳动力支出。这使得软件的市场机会扩大了约30倍。" 他将未来的AI代理比作最顶尖的"S级员工"："最高主动性的员工会识别问题、诊断问题根源、实施解决方案，最后才来告诉你：'请批准我找到的 这个方案。'这就是 AI 应用的未来。" 猜测二："代理使用优先"与机器可读性。 a16z成长型投资合伙人Stephanie Zhang 提出了一个颠 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic surge, driven by expectations of monetary easing and geopolitical risks, but a significant risk of forced selling looms due to the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January 2026 [1][7][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals are on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979, with gold prices nearing a 70% increase and silver prices soaring nearly 140% year-to-date [8]. - Platinum and palladium have also seen remarkable gains, with platinum rising to over $2,075 per ounce, marking a nearly 130% annual increase, and palladium reaching approximately $1,802 per ounce, with an expected annual increase of over 95% [12]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The macroeconomic backdrop includes a weakening US dollar and widespread expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, despite officials predicting only one [10]. - Increased military activity near Venezuela has added geopolitical risk premiums to the market [10]. - Chinese trading activity has significantly contributed to the surge in platinum prices, with trading volumes on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surpassing those of the New York Mercantile Exchange [11][13]. Group 3: Risks and Upcoming Events - JPMorgan warns of a potential technical sell-off during the January 2026 rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, as gold and silver have significantly outperformed the market over the past three years [7][19]. - Passive funds tracking the index, with over $60 billion in assets, may be forced to sell approximately 9% of the total open contracts in silver and about 3% in gold during the rebalancing period [20][21]. - The upcoming sell-off could counteract the traditional seasonal strength typically seen in precious metals at the beginning of the year, leading to potential market volatility [21].

周二，据英国金融时报报道，TikTok母公司字节跳动计划明年增加资本支出，进一步建设人工智能基础 设施。据媒体援引知情人士消息，字节跳动初步计划的2026年资本支出达1600亿元人民币（约合230亿 美元），较今年的1500亿元有所增长。 投资重点将集中在AI基础设施建设上，其中约一半资金将用于采购先进半导体芯片以开发AI模型和应 用，字节跳动预算明年在AI处理器上投入850亿元人民币。 知情人士称，若获准采购更多先进芯片，字节可能会大幅增加资本开支。 根据本土数据分析公司QuestMobile的数据，豆包已成为中国月活跃用户数和下载量最高的AI应用。该 公司还通过推广火山引擎云服务与阿里展开激烈竞争。 高盛分析师指出，字节跳动的AI服务已成为中国使用量最大的平台。10月份，该公司日均token使用量 大幅增长至超过30万亿次，相比之下谷歌同期为43万亿次。 据一位字节跳动投资者表示，与阿里和腾讯等其他中国大型科技公司相比，字节跳动作为非上市公司的 优势在于能够更灵活地进行激进投资，在AI领域进行长期布局。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、 ...

作者：鲍奕龙，华尔街见闻 曾在今年上半年风靡市场的加密货币囤积策略正面临转折。 据周五提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件显示，亿万富翁Peter Thiel支持的ETHZilla公司已出售价值 7450万美元的以太坊代币用于偿还债务，而开创这一模式的Strategy也在本周暂停了比特币购买，转而 充实现金储备。 根据文件，ETHZilla将继续评估包括出售以太坊和股权融资在内的多种融资策略。这是该公司四个月内 第二次出售以太坊，此前在10月底曾出售约4000万美元以太坊用于股票回购。 与此同时，Strategy创始人Michael Saylor在过去一周将公司现金储备增至21.9亿美元，并停止购买比特 币。 该公司此前表示已建立现金储备以偿还此前证券发行产生的高额利息。据TD Cowen分析师Lance Vitanza测算，Strategy每年需支付约8.24亿美元的利息和股息。 这些动向表明，通过上市公司囤积加密货币的商业模式正面临考验。比特币自10月初创下历史高点以来 已下跌约30%，Strategy股价同期暴跌超50%。 这家总部位于佛罗里达州棕榈滩的公司原名180 Life Sciences Corp.， ...

在经历了连续两年的上涨后，中国股市正站在一个新的起点。 据追风交易台消息，高盛投资组合策略研究团队刘劲津（Kinger Lau）等分析师在其12月22日最新发布 的研报中，系统复盘了2025年中国股市的十大核心趋势，指出市场可能正在酝酿一轮由盈利增长接棒估 值修复驱动的"慢牛"行情，而人工智能（AI）、"反内卷"政策以及资本回流正成为定义未来市场走向的 关键变量。 这份题为《从2025年学到的10个股票洞见》的报告显示，中国A股和H股在2025年分别录得16%和29% 的年度回报，显著超越了该行年初的预测。报告强调，这一轮上涨主要由估值驱动，而非盈利增长，这 标志着市场周期可能正从"希望"阶段向"增长"阶段过渡。 今年的涨势主要由估值修复引领。报告数据显示，"MSCI中国指数的12个月远期市盈率从2025年初的 9.9倍上升至目前的12.5倍，而远期每股收益（fEPS）全年则下降了4%"。 风格方面，成长和GARP（合理价格成长）策略表现最佳，而价值和高股息策略则相对落后。 高盛预计，"牛市行情将继续，但步伐会放缓"，并预测到2027年底中国股市将上涨38%，主要由2026年 和2027年14%和12%的盈利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent technical buy signal triggered by the US Dollar Index (DXY) suggests a potential upward trend for both US stocks and crude oil, with historical data indicating a strong likelihood of dollar appreciation following this signal [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar Index Analysis - The DXY experienced its 39th golden cross on December 19, indicating a bullish signal as the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average [4][7]. - Historical data shows that after a golden cross, the dollar index has a 68-79% probability of rising within 20-60 trading days, with an average increase of approximately 1.22% [7][8]. - This particular golden cross is notable as it is the 16th occurrence since 1970 when the 200-day moving average was declining, leading to an 80% probability of dollar appreciation in the following days [3][8]. Group 2: Impact on Other Asset Classes - The S&P 500 index typically shows mixed performance in the initial phase after the golden cross, but tends to strengthen after 35 trading days, especially when the 200-day moving average is declining [11]. - Crude oil has a perfect record following the golden cross, with a 100% probability of rising 35 trading days later, averaging a gain of 9.07% [11]. - In contrast, gold and 10-year Treasury yields exhibit a neutral response to the dollar's golden cross, with approximately 50% probability of upward movement, indicating a divergence in traditional safe-haven assets [11].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the establishment of Xinyin Financial Asset Investment (信银金投), a key subsidiary of CITIC Bank, which aims to enhance the bank's comprehensive financial services and support its strategic transformation towards a "light and strong" model [1][10][20] - Xinyin Financial Asset Investment will leverage CITIC Group's full financial license resources and integrate into the "CITIC Equity Investment Alliance" ecosystem, enhancing its capabilities in fundraising, investment, management, and exit [1][4] - The establishment of the AIC (Asset Investment Company) is seen as a critical step in CITIC Bank's "Five Leading" strategy, which focuses on wealth management, comprehensive financing, transaction settlement, foreign exchange services, and digitalization [5][16] Group 2 - The AIC's business scope has expanded from pure debt-to-equity swaps to include core debt-to-equity swaps, direct equity investments, private equity management, and financial advisory services [2][3] - The market demands more long-term capital operations that focus on early, small, and hard technology investments, prompting banks to transition from traditional funding intermediaries to comprehensive financial service providers [3][6] - Xinyin Financial Asset Investment will focus on two core functions: market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps to reduce corporate debt ratios and enhance equity financing, and utilizing equity investment licenses to support high-level technological self-reliance [4][10] Group 3 - The establishment of the AIC is expected to support CITIC Bank's comprehensive financing business, filling gaps in credit solutions for technology and startup enterprises [7][8] - The AIC will also contribute to achieving CITIC Bank's wealth management goals by providing equity investment products for private banking and high-net-worth clients [9][10] - The bank's comprehensive financing balance increased by 4.35% to 14.91 trillion yuan by the end of the third quarter, indicating a focus on quality and efficiency rather than just scale [8][17] Group 4 - The new management team at CITIC Bank, including the appointment of younger executives, aims to foster a more dynamic and capable leadership structure [19] - The bank's transformation towards a "light and strong" model is still in progress, with mixed results in terms of profitability and asset quality [18][20] - The AIC's role in the bank's strategy is to enhance the overall ecosystem and support the transition to a more efficient and value-driven banking model [10][16]

A股小幅高开，沪指涨0.04%，创业板涨0.14%。海南自贸区概念股持续发酵，乳业、光伏、黄金、网络安全题材活跃。稳定币、核聚变、算力硬 件概念股调整。 港股指数高开，恒指上涨0.29%，恒生科技指数涨0.14%。大型科技股多数飘红，美团、百度、京东、阿里巴巴涨幅在1%以内，快手跌3.3%，此 前快手称遭到灰黑产攻击，已报警；金属狂欢！金银铜同创新高，铂钯金全线大涨，黄金股、铜业股等有色金属股继续强势。另外，消费电子概 念股、海运股、电力股走低。 消息面，隔夜美股三大指数收涨，特斯拉、美光科技创新高。 国债期货开盘表现分化，30年期主力合约涨0.08%报111.930元，10年期主力合约涨0.05%报107.990元，5年期主力合约持平于105.840元，2年期主 力合约持平于102.462元。 国内商品期市开盘多数上涨，铂金涨8.30%，钯金涨5.99%，沪金涨2.44%，沪银涨3.21%。，沪镍涨3.06%，集运指数(欧线)涨2.69%，燃油涨 2.06%，焦煤涨1.58%，碳酸锂涨1.05%。 消息面，隔夜国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨2.13%报4480.60美元/盎司，COMEX白银期 ...

曾在今年上半年风靡市场的加密货币囤积策略正面临转折。 据周五提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件显示，亿万富翁Peter Thiel支持的ETHZilla公司已出售价值7450万美元的以太坊代币用于偿还债务，而开 创这一模式的Strategy也在本周暂停了比特币购买，转而充实现金储备。 根据文件，ETHZilla将继续评估包括出售以太坊和股权融资在内的多种融资策略。这是该公司四个月内第二次出售以太坊，此前在10月底曾出售 约4000万美元以太坊用于股票回购。 与此同时，Strategy创始人Michael Saylor在过去一周将公司现金储备增至21.9亿美元，并停止购买比特币。 该公司此前表示已建立现金储备以偿还此前证券发行产生的高额利息。据TD Cowen分析师Lance Vitanza测算，Strategy每年需支付约8.24亿美元的 利息和股息。 根据周一向SEC提交的文件，该公司在截至12月21日的一周内通过出售普通股筹集了7.48亿美元，将现金储备增至21.9亿美元，但暂停了比特币购 买。 这些动向表明，通过上市公司囤积加密货币的商业模式正面临考验。比特币自10月初创下历史高点以来已下跌约30%，Str ...

目前的"延误"是一个涵盖极广的概念，其成因复杂多样。从公用事业公司无法兑现电力承诺、关键设备 到货滞后，到现场劳动力短缺导致的施工进度延误，各类情况层出不穷。 对于旨在建设大规模AI基础设施的建筑商而言，交付速度与规模的复杂性正在显现：发电机、变压器 和液冷组件的等待时间不断延长，且由于英伟达最先进的硬件必须采用液冷，这一尚处实验阶段的技术 仍有许多难题待解。 这种行业性的普遍滞后正在引发资本市场的连锁反应。从近期案例来看，并非所有的延误影响都相同， 真正令市场担忧的是涉及政治阻力、融资失败以及具有约束力的合同告吹。这些因素不仅直接冲击了相 关公司的股价，也迫使部分资本方重新审视项目的经济可行性。 与此同时，行业巨头正试图从源头解决这一瓶颈。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋上周在加州总部秘密召集了 一次峰会，旨在推动"表后"发电模式，即数据中心自行建设发电设施以绕过电网互连的漫长等待。 对于行业而言，能否快速解决电力供应和工程延误问题，将决定谁能在这场AI竞赛中生存。 政治阻力与融资难题 部分项目的延误并非源于技术问题，而是遭遇了地方政府的政治阻力，尤其是当数据中心规模从几百兆 瓦跃升至吉瓦（GW）级别时。 随着人工智 ...