以下为研究报告摘要： 国内炼焦煤价格继续上涨，焦煤期货价下降。截至2025年9月29日，综合的中国炼焦煤 价格指数报收1424.51元/吨，环比上月上涨63.13元/吨，涨幅为4.64%。截至9月30日，京唐 港对来自澳大利亚的主焦煤库提含税价报收1520.00元/吨，环比上月下降60.00元/吨，降幅 为3.80%；峰景矿硬焦煤普氏价格指数204.95美元/吨，环比上涨4.60美元/吨，涨幅为 2.30%。截至9月30日，焦煤期货价1126元/吨，环比上月下降25元/吨，降幅为2.17%。 三港口合计炼焦煤库存量月环比上升。截至9月26日，三港口（秦皇岛港、黄骅港、曹 妃甸港）炼焦煤库存量共288.49万吨，环比上月上升19.64万吨，涨幅为7.31%。 东兴证券近日发布煤炭行业研究报告：截至2025年9月29日，综合的中国炼焦煤价格指 数报收1424.51元/吨，环比上月上涨63.13元/吨，涨幅为4.64%。截至9月30日，京唐港对来 自澳大利亚的主焦煤库提含税价报收1520.00元/吨，环比上月下降60.00元/吨，降幅为 3.80%；峰景矿硬焦煤普氏价格指数204.95美元/吨，环比上涨4.60美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with a 4.44% increase in the week from October 3 to October 10, ranking first among all primary industries [1][2]. Industry Summary Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance includes a 5.35% increase in the industrial metals segment, a 4.64% rise in the small metals segment, a 4.44% increase in the metal new materials segment, a 4.00% rise in the precious metals segment, and a 1.29% increase in the energy metals segment [1][2]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices continued their upward trend from before the National Day holiday, but the "Tariff War 2.0" has raised concerns about potential downward pressure on prices in the short term [2][3]. - As of October 10, copper prices were reported at $10,374 per ton, down 3.05% week-on-week, while domestic copper prices were at 85,910 yuan per ton, up 3.37% week-on-week [3]. Aluminum - As of October 10, LME aluminum was priced at $2,746 per ton, up 1.63% week-on-week, and domestic aluminum was at 20,980 yuan per ton, up 1.45% week-on-week [4][5]. - The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry decreased by 30,000 tons to 44.135 million tons due to maintenance in Shanxi [4]. Precious Metals - Gold prices reached $4,035.50 per ounce, up 3.15% week-on-week, while domestic gold was priced at 901.56 yuan per gram, up 5.48% week-on-week [6]. - The ongoing trend of declining real interest rates and rising concerns over fiscal pressures have contributed to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6].

Core Insights - The low-altitude economy sector outperformed the market during the period from September 29 to October 12, with the Wind Low Altitude Economy Index rising by 3.92%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.12 percentage points, the CSI 300 Index by 2.46 percentage points, and the ChiNext Index by 5.14 percentage points [1][2] - The National General Aviation Index increased by 2.35%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.55 percentage points, the CSI 300 Index by 0.88 percentage points, and the ChiNext Index by 3.56 percentage points [1][2] Policy Developments - The first local government legislation for low-altitude economy, the "Suzhou Low Altitude Economy Promotion Regulations," came into effect on October 1, outlining responsibilities for city and county governments to promote low-altitude infrastructure planning, construction, and operation [2] - The "Implementation Details for Several Measures to Support High-Quality Development of Low Altitude Economy" by the Shenzhen Transportation Bureau will take effect on October 9, 2025, focusing on key funding projects across the low-altitude economy industry chain, with individual project rewards up to 15 million yuan [3] Industry Advancements - Zero Gravity Aircraft Industry announced nearly 300 million yuan in financing to support the development of its ZG-ONE and ZG-T6 aircraft, as well as the establishment of a national green aviation flight camp [3] - The Guangdong Province Low Altitude Equipment Verification Testing Base was inaugurated to provide a professional platform for low-altitude equipment research, design, manufacturing, and application [3] Product Innovations - Yingwu Intelligent received the first national license for ultra-lightweight single-person flying cars and unveiled the S-ONE flying vehicle, featuring AI capabilities for autonomous operations [4] - WoFei ChangKong's first passenger eVTOL product, AE200-100, has completed major assembly and is preparing for manned test flights, with a backlog of 1,000 commercial orders [4] Market Trends - AirCar Technology and Aviation announced the opening of pre-orders for its LightSport eVTOL, with the first 100 units sold out within days, expected to be delivered by 2027 [5] - The national strategy is increasingly focusing on the low-altitude economy, with various local policies being implemented and state-owned enterprises establishing low-altitude economy companies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gas industry is experiencing stable prices due to sufficient inventory in the US, progress in European storage, and slow recovery in domestic demand [1][2]. Price Tracking - As of October 10, 2025, the week-on-week price changes for various gas prices are as follows: US HH -0.9%, Europe TTF +0.9%, East Asia JKM +0.2%, China LNG ex-factory -0.2%, and China LNG CIF -2.7%, with prices stabilizing around 0.7, 2.8, 2.8, 2.7, and 2.7 yuan per cubic meter respectively [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas market shows a week-on-week price decrease of 0.9%, with total supply down 0.1% to 111.7 billion cubic feet per day, but up 4.3% year-on-year. Total demand increased by 2.7% to 101.3 billion cubic feet per day, also up 2.7% year-on-year [3]. - European gas prices increased by 0.9% due to a 5.8% year-on-year rise in gas consumption from January to June 2025, totaling 240.8 billion cubic meters [3]. - Domestic gas prices decreased by 0.2%, with apparent consumption from January to August 2025 up 0.8% year-on-year to 283.2 billion cubic meters [3]. Pricing Progress - As of September 2025, 65% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [4]. Investment Recommendations - For 2025, the industry is expected to see relaxed supply and cost optimization for gas companies. Key recommendations include companies like Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, with attention to companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages [5].

Core Insights - The chemical industry report indicates mixed price movements among 100 tracked chemical products, with 20 experiencing price increases, 32 seeing declines, and 48 remaining stable [1][3] - The average price of WTI crude oil fell by 3.25% to $58.9 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 2.79% to $62.73 per barrel [4] Industry Dynamics - In the week of October 6-12, 34% of tracked chemical products saw month-on-month price increases, while 49% experienced declines, and 17% remained unchanged [1][3] - The top gainers in weekly average prices included sulfur, trichloroethylene, liquid ammonia, propylene oxide, and soft foam polyether, while the largest decliners were methanol, phenol, ethylene glycol, urea, and vitamin E [3] - The report highlights a significant drop in vitamin prices post-National Day, with vitamin A and E prices decreasing by 1.67% and 5.68% respectively compared to the previous week [5] - Ethylene prices also fell by 3.26% to 6,530 yuan per ton, with a year-to-date decline of 16.22% [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the third-quarter earnings season, undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies [2][7] - The long-term investment themes include the potential for sustained high oil prices, recovery in the oil service industry, and growth in new materials sectors, particularly in semiconductor and OLED materials [7][8] - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, CNOOC, Sinopec, and various technology and chemical companies, with a focus on those with strong performance potential in high-demand sectors [8][9]

重大事件 1）中国具有针对性的稀土出口管制措施，新增对钼、锰、铽、铑、镭五种关键稀土元 素的管制，并规定只要产品含中国稀土原料，无论是否出口均需许可。2）美国总统特朗普 表示将于11月1日起对中国加征100%的额外关税并管制所有关键软件的出口，以此回应中国 实施稀土出口管制。3）特朗普政府正加大力度，将联邦政府对企业的拨款转换为股权，以 保障美国关键矿产和半导体供应链的安全，旨在减少对中国的依赖。以下公司与此次战略投 报告要点： 期间（2025.9.29-2025.10.12）市场回顾 1）海外AI芯片指数期间上涨2.66%，只有博通小幅度下跌3%，其余成分股均出现上 涨。2）国内AI芯片指数下跌0.6%，其中通富微电涨幅超20%，兆易创新与澜起科技涨幅超 过10%。3）英伟达映射指数上涨0.2%，相关产业链公司股票多数出现下滑的情况。4）服务 器ODM指数上涨5.8%，成分股大都呈现上涨情况，其中Wistron、超微以及Wiwynn涨幅超 10%。Quanta下跌23.1%，为唯一下跌成分股。5）存储芯片指数上涨12.2%，近期存储芯片 板块受AI需求驱动持续活跃，但企业级需求增长与供应链调整导致市场波动加 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a slight decline in the CSI 300 index by 0.51% during the week of October 6-10, 2025, with the machinery equipment sector also down by 0.26%, ranking 19th out of 31 in the Shenwan industry classification [2][3] - The rail transit equipment sub-sector showed the best performance with an increase of 2.81%, while the overall PE-TTM valuation for the machinery equipment industry decreased by 0.18% [2][3] Machinery Equipment Sector - The top three sub-sectors with the highest PE-TTM increases were rail transit (+2.77%), engineering components (+2.75%), and printing and packaging machinery (+2.34%) [2][3] - The sub-sectors that experienced the largest declines were laser equipment (-6.18%), other automation (-3.54%), and building equipment (-2.11%) [2][3] Semiconductor Equipment - The market's focus is shifting from individual equipment breakthroughs to providing comprehensive solutions for advanced processes in semiconductor manufacturing [3] - The global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment is projected to exceed $100 billion in 2025, marking a 7% growth, with significant investments expected in mainland China's wafer fabs from 2026 to 2028 [3] Humanoid Robots - The commercialization of general-purpose humanoid robots is accelerating, with FigureAI launching its third-generation humanoid robot, Figure03, designed for enhanced safety and collaboration in home environments [4] - The HelixAI model enables significant advancements in perception, planning, and self-learning capabilities, indicating a shift towards autonomous decision-making in humanoid robots [4] Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Domestic nuclear fusion projects are transitioning from experimental validation to engineering, with demand for related equipment beginning to materialize [5] - The installation of key components, such as the BEST Dewar base and magnetic support systems, is progressing faster than expected, which is likely to accelerate procurement in critical areas of the supply chain [5] Investment Recommendations - Companies in the semiconductor equipment sector that expand their product lines and streamline processes are expected to benefit from the current trend towards self-sufficiency [6] - Leading robot manufacturers are advancing cost reduction and channel expansion, with a focus on core component suppliers [6] - The investment logic in the nuclear fusion supply chain is centered on segments with clear performance visibility and established customer relationships [6]

Core Insights - The automotive market in China showed positive growth in August, with retail sales reaching 1.995 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and a month-on-month increase of 8.2% [2][3] - In September, the cumulative registration of domestic passenger cars reached 1.9989 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while new energy vehicles (NEVs) saw a significant year-on-year increase of 13.2% with 1.1667 million units registered [2][3] - The production and sales figures for August were 2.815 million and 2.857 million units respectively, reflecting month-on-month increases of 8.7% and 10.1%, and year-on-year increases of 13% and 16.4% [2][3] Market Performance - The CS automotive sector rose by 6.38% in September, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points and the Shanghai Composite index by 5.73 percentage points [3] - Year-to-date, the CS automotive sector has increased by 54.34%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices, which rose by 35.25% and 30.52% respectively [3] Cost Tracking - As of September 30, 2025, prices for float glass, aluminum ingots, and zinc ingots showed year-on-year changes of +7.4%, +3.7%, and -10.7% respectively, with month-on-month changes of +5.4%, -0.1%, and -1.6% [3] Inventory Levels - The inventory warning index for Chinese automotive dealers in September 2025 was 54.5%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, remaining above the threshold [3] Market Focus - The report highlights advancements in autonomous driving and robotics, including Tesla's FSD version updates and various companies launching robotaxi services [4] - There is a strong emphasis on the growth of new energy vehicles and the introduction of new models from various manufacturers, including Tesla and Geely [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands and electric vehicle trends, recommending companies like Leap Motor, JAC Motors, and Geely for their strong new product cycles [5] - It also highlights opportunities in the smart technology sector with companies like Coboda and Huayang Group, as well as in the robotics sector with Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a mixed performance in the market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index declining by 0.51%, while the public utility index rose by 3.45% and the environmental index increased by 1.49% [2] Market Review - The public utility and environmental sectors ranked 4th and 10th respectively among 31 primary industry categories, indicating a strong performance relative to other sectors [2] - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power increased by 7.83%, hydropower by 2.30%, and renewable energy generation by 3.72%. The water sector rose by 5.55%, gas by 7.05%, and testing services by 1.53% [2][3] Important Events - As of October 12, 2025, multiple provinces have released documents related to the "Document No. 136" and initiated or completed competitive pricing for new energy incremental projects [2] Specialized Research - Green methanol, produced from renewable resources, significantly reduces carbon emissions during its production process. It must meet two key criteria: the hydrogen source must be green hydrogen, and the carbon source must be from biomass or carbon capture technologies [2] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include: - For coal-fired power, companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric are suggested due to stable profitability [3] - In the renewable energy sector, leading companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy are recommended, along with regional offshore wind power firms [3] - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable earnings [3] - High-dividend hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power are highlighted for their defensive attributes [3] - In the gas sector, Jiufeng Energy is recommended for its capabilities in marine gas trading [3] - For the environmental sector, companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities are suggested due to improving cash flows [4]

Core Insights - The launch of the first batch of green liquid fuel industrialization pilot projects by the National Energy Administration marks a significant acceleration in the industrialization of green liquid fuels, defining 2025 as the "substantial industrialization year" for China's green liquid fuel development [2][4]. Group 1: Policy and Project Overview - The National Energy Administration announced nine pilot projects focusing on green methanol, green ammonia, and cellulose ethanol, including significant projects like the coupling of wind power and biomass to produce methanol in Jilin and the production of 50,000 tons of green methanol in Inner Mongolia [2][4]. - The projects require simultaneous technological breakthroughs and market validation, with a completion deadline set for the end of 2026, ensuring a closed-loop system from production to application [2][4]. Group 2: Future Industry Landscape - The future green fuel industry is envisioned as a comprehensive ecosystem driven by green electricity, utilizing green hydrogen as a bridge, and integrating biomass resources to serve transportation, shipping, and green chemicals [3]. - Key technological pathways include the synthesis of green methanol from green hydrogen and captured CO2, and the production of biodiesel from various biomass materials, which will play a crucial role in decarbonizing shipping [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The shift in investment logic for the green liquid fuel industry will transition from "theme speculation" to "performance-driven," with the concentration of projects expected to generate substantial orders and revenue for related listed companies [4][5]. - Recommended areas for investment include full industry chain integrators, core equipment manufacturers, key materials and components suppliers, and fuel production and operation enterprises, with specific companies highlighted for their critical roles in the industry [5].