Core Insights - Hainan is a crucial natural rubber production base in China, facing significant challenges due to typhoons and climate anomalies affecting supply and prices [1][2] - The natural rubber industry in Hainan is experiencing structural contradictions, with competition from other crops and aging rubber trees impacting production [3] - Different companies are adopting varied strategies to navigate the challenging environment, with state-owned enterprises focusing on global resource allocation and technology innovation, while private firms are implementing defensive measures [4][5] Group 1: Industry Challenges - Typhoon "Mojia" caused substantial damage to rubber plantations in Hainan, leading to a tight supply of raw materials and rising prices [1] - The aging tree structure and adverse weather conditions have resulted in reduced rubber production, with local processing capacity facing fierce competition [2][3] - The economic benefits of alternative crops like betel nut and agarwood are leading to decreased willingness among farmers to harvest rubber, further exacerbating supply issues [3] Group 2: Company Strategies - A leading state-owned enterprise is focusing on global resource layout and technological innovation, including the promotion of smart tapping technology to reduce labor costs [4] - Private processing companies are adopting a defensive strategy by reducing production to control losses and seeking to import raw materials from lower-cost regions [5] - Some companies are extending their operations downstream to enhance product value and cope with high local raw material prices [5] Group 3: Future Trends - The natural rubber industry in China is expected to undergo a significant transformation, balancing strategic resource security with economic realities [6] - The planting area and raw material output in Hainan are projected to decline slowly, while processing capacity will undergo consolidation due to strict environmental regulations [6] - The industry is likely to evolve into a dual-circulation model, combining domestic resource security with overseas resource expansion [6]

2017年国家启动"两区"划定，将天然橡胶作为重要农产品，要求划定保护区，海南省规划保护面积840万亩。其 中，白沙黎族自治县(简称白沙县)是原国家级少数民族贫困县，以种植业为主，橡胶是其支柱产业，种植面积达 104万亩，人均橡胶种植面积和人均产量分别名列海南第一和全国第二。 2011年以来胶价的持续低迷导致胶农收入锐减，橡胶树弃管、弃割现象严重。为稳定胶农收入、助力橡胶产业发 展，在白沙县政府和上期所的支持下，新湖期货携手中国人民财产保险股份有限公司海南省分公司(简称人保财 险海南省分公司)于2017年首次将"保险+期货"精准扶贫创新模式引入海南，将全国首单天然橡胶"保险+期货"试点 项目落地白沙县，创新应用金融工具管理橡胶价格波动风险。 服务方案与开展过程 业务模式 在白沙县开展的天然橡胶项目采用"保险+期货"模式，这是一种将农户和期货市场通过保险公司进行间接联结的 具有中国特色的金融模式，为农业产业的风险管理提供了有效的金融手段。这一模式打造了"农民买价格保险或 收入保险保收益，保险公司购买场外期权对冲风险，期货公司风险管理公司复制期权覆盖风险"的闭环。 图为"保险+期货"模式流程 方案设计 胶水是生产 ...

2017年以来，东证期货在重视自身经营发展的同时，一直坚守初心，将行业发展融入服务国家战略中， 在20个省份的74个乡村振兴地区开展帮扶项目，投入资金超8700万元，涉及产业、教育、消费、场外期 权、"保险+期货"和"订单收购+期货"等多种帮扶形式。 项目背景 为积极响应习近平总书记提出的"走好新时代长征路"的号召，2021年，东证期货打造了公益品牌"IF公 益"，意在通过"保险+期货"的新兴金融模式扶持乡村农业经济，以公益"反哺"的力量，推动成就了中国 革命的红色地标收获来自新农村的富裕果实，践行"如期收获好成果，只为乡村更美好"的口号。截至目 前，"IF公益"项目覆盖江西省瑞金市和井冈山市、贵州省安龙县、广西全州县、四川省泸定县、广东省 南雄市、云南省宣威市、宁夏西吉县等地，共计投入近1240万元，从"保险+期货"、消费、产业、文化 及党建等领域对长征沿线地区进行帮扶。 服务方案 2024年下半年，东证期货"IF公益"继续沿着红军长征足迹，来到隶属甘南藏族自治州的迭部县，与迭部 县政府就帮扶意向项目进行深入交流，并签署了乡村振兴战略合作协议。根据迭部县产业发展特色及实 际需求，东证期货"IF公益"从党建共 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of platinum and palladium futures have surged, driven by macroeconomic liquidity and tightening supply in the physical market, with platinum futures reaching 568.45 CNY per gram and palladium futures at 508.45 CNY per gram, marking increases of 6.99% and 7% respectively [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties are key supports for the price increases of platinum and palladium [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of downward risk, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, which may further support the Fed's easing measures [2] - Inflation is gradually receding, with the core CPI falling to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Platinum supply is expected to remain tight, with a projected supply gap of 46.4 tons by 2025, providing upward momentum for prices [3] - The palladium market has shifted to a state of oversupply, with expectations of a further increase in surplus to approximately 16.9 tons by 2026, which may exert downward pressure on prices [3] - The demand for platinum is supported by its applications in hydrogen energy and stable industrial uses, despite structural impacts from electric vehicle developments [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current price increases of platinum and palladium reflect strong macroeconomic expectations, but there is a risk of rapid corrections if market sentiment shifts [3][4] - The ongoing adjustments in the EU regarding the ban on fuel vehicles may improve future demand expectations for platinum and palladium [2] - In the absence of clear negative factors, precious metals are expected to maintain strength in the short term, although their volatility remains relatively low [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The spot silver price increased by 2.79% to $69.0304 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $69.4549 during trading [1] - The spot gold price rose by 2.48% to a new record of $4449.18 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures climbed 2.16% to $4482.30 per ounce, also a historical high [1] - The rise in precious metals prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Light crude oil futures for February 2026 increased by $1.49 per barrel, closing at $58.01, a rise of 2.64% [1] - Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 rose by $1.60 per barrel, closing at $62.07, marking a 2.65% increase [1] Group 3: Economic Policy and Federal Reserve - Federal Reserve Governor Milan warned that without further interest rate cuts next year, the U.S. economy could face recession risks, highlighting a divide within the Fed regarding interest rate policy [2] - Milan emphasized that rising unemployment rates should prompt a shift towards a more dovish stance among Fed decision-makers [2] Group 4: European Union Sanctions on Russia - The EU has decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, until July 31, 2026 [8] - Sanctions include prohibiting imports of Russian oil and certain petroleum products, as well as excluding several Russian banks from the SWIFT system [8][9] - The EU continues to provide various forms of support to Ukraine and is prepared to impose additional sanctions if necessary [9]

为帮助期货从业人员进一步掌握期权专业知识、提升运用衍生工具服务实体经济的能力，由郑商所、中 期协、广期所联合主办的"期货从业人员期权专题培训班"近日在广州举行。来自期货公司、风险管理子 公司的180名业务骨干参加本次培训。 在实战操作方面，多位讲师表示，要注重从风险管理的角度看待期权，探寻与期权工具属性高度适配的 应用场景，尤其是企业主体。"与金融公司或者个人参与者期望通过承担风险获得高收益不同，大多数 现货企业并不能通过承担巨大的现货价格风险而获得回报。"厦门象屿期权业务部经理尹驰表示，对产 业企业而言，套期保值的主要目的是降低风险，不应将追求超额收益作为套期保值的直接目标。 参加培训的学员反映，此次培训内容充实、案例生动，既有理论高度，又紧贴业务实际，对于系统梳理 期权知识体系、解锁复杂策略应用、拓展产业服务思路具有极大的启发和帮助。他们将把所学所悟转化 为服务实体经济、管理市场风险的实际能力，为推动我国期货期权市场高质量发展、护航实体经济行稳 致远贡献专业力量。 期权市场的发展，离不开专业人才的支撑。多位与会嘉宾表示，期权工具更复杂，场内期权交易、场外 期权和做市业务专业性也更强，从业人员的专业素养、业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of fee reductions for futures delivery and related costs by multiple exchanges aims to support the real economy and enhance risk management for enterprises in response to increasing market volatility and demand for hedging tools [15][16]. Group 1: Fee Reductions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange, its subsidiary Shanghai Energy, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, and other exchanges will waive delivery fees, standard warehouse receipt transfer fees, margin fees for standard warehouse receipts, and conversion fees for the year 2026 [1][7][8][9][10]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will also implement a 50% reduction in fees for hedging transactions, excluding high-frequency traders [11][12]. - The China Financial Futures Exchange will reduce delivery fees for stock index futures and government bond futures by 50%, as well as fees for exercising stock index options, also excluding high-frequency traders [2][13]. Group 2: Market Impact - The fee reductions are seen as a key measure to enhance the participation of enterprises in the futures market, aligning with the increasing demand for risk management tools due to significant price volatility in commodity markets influenced by geopolitical factors and macroeconomic policies [15][16]. - The measures are expected to lower the hedging costs for enterprises, making it easier for small and medium-sized enterprises to engage in hedging activities, thus broadening the use of hedging tools across the entire industry chain [15][16]. - The focus on optimizing delivery costs is anticipated to encourage more eligible physical resources to enter the futures delivery system, improving the efficiency of warehouse receipts and facilitating better resource allocation for enterprises [16].

12月22日，南华期货（603093）正式在香港联合交易所主板挂牌，成功登陆香港资本市场，实 现"A+H"上市。此次上市标志着南华期货完成境内外资本市场多重布局，为其国际化战略推进与业务创 新发展注入强劲动力。同时，这也是继弘业期货（001236）之后，国内第二家期货公司实现"A+H"布 局。 南华期货本次全球发售共计1.08亿股境外上市普通股，发行价格为每股12港元，共募资12.03亿港元。截 至当日收盘，南华期货H股股价报9.10港元/股；南华期货A股股价报19.61元/股，涨幅为1.82%。 对于本次全球发售所得款项净额，南华期货表示，计划全部划拨境外全资子公司横华国际，用于加强公 司于中国香港、英国、美国及新加坡的境外附属公司的资本基础，以持续拓展境外业务，优化业务架 构，提升公司在全球市场的竞争力和风险应对能力。 西安交大客座教授景川认为，南华期货实现"A+H"上市，将进一步拓宽融资渠道，增强资本实力。同 时，南华期货在境外资本市场亮相，有助于吸引全球投资者和机构客户，提升其在全球衍生品市场的知 名度与公信力，加快其全球布局。目前，期货行业正从传统"通道经纪"向"专业服务"转型，南华期货借 助双平台 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) aims to enhance its role in financial services by expanding its futures and options offerings, particularly in the context of green development and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area initiative [1][2]. Group 1: Development and Achievements - Since its establishment in April 2021, GFE has been pivotal in supporting green development and the Belt and Road Initiative, with its influence and market scale steadily increasing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. - GFE has launched 10 futures and options products, including industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and multi-crystalline silicon, forming a preliminary new energy metal futures sector that aids risk management for industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [1][2]. Group 2: Awards and International Cooperation - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures received the "Best New Contract Award" and "Annual New Contract Award" from FOW magazine in 2023 and 2024, respectively, highlighting their innovative advantages and market performance [2]. - GFE has joined the United Nations Sustainable Stock Exchanges initiative to enhance its global influence in the green low-carbon sector and maintains close cooperation with international exchanges like Deutsche Börse and the Singapore Exchange [2]. Group 3: Future Plans and Innovations - GFE plans to focus on new energy, new materials, and carbon emissions in its future product offerings, while also deepening the application of the photovoltaic meteorological index in the futures market [3]. - The exchange is actively exploring cross-industry innovations, such as collaborating with the Central Meteorological Observatory to develop a photovoltaic meteorological index for managing weather-related risks in the industry [2][3].

出口保持高位，在显著成本优势及市场多元化策略推动下，2025年钢材出口预计创历史新高。商务部、 海关总署已公布对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，自2026年1月1日起执行。此次管理范围涵盖钢坯 等低附加值产品及部分高端产品，但未包括线材、螺纹钢等建筑用钢。该政策旨在引导钢铁出口向高附 加值产品（如高端板材、特钢）集中，预计普通钢材出口将减少，而高端产品出口竞争力增强，有利于 优化出口结构。 近期，钢材价格在需求淡季和成本下行双重影响下呈先抑后扬走势。据报道，蒙古国政府于12月10日召 开会议，通过多项决议计划增加2026年煤炭出口。受蒙煤进口通关效率提升影响，焦煤、焦炭价格承 压，进而带动钢材价格震荡走弱。当前，环保限产导致供应收缩，叠加下游逐步启动补库，黑色系板块 有所反弹。 展望2026年，在制造业需求具备一定韧性的背景下，部分出口转内销仍面临压力，预计钢材价格重心将 维持低位运行。需关注"碳中和"带来的绿色溢价，以及"反内卷"政策对供应端的潜在影响。（作者单 位：国元期货） 宏观方面，美国已进入降息周期，但预计2026年降息节奏将相对温和；国内经济保持韧性，但生产恢复 速度仍快于需求复苏。政策层面聚焦" ...