Core Viewpoint - The surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by expectations of a weaker dollar and improved demand, with significant increases in copper, gold, silver, and other metals observed as the year ends [2][5]. Group 1: Factors Driving Price Increases - The expectation of a weaker dollar is influenced by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and a shift from balance sheet reduction to asset purchases, which could lead to increased liquidity in emerging markets and commodity markets [2]. - Improved demand expectations are linked to central banks and Wall Street investors increasing their purchases of gold, driving its price higher [2]. - Silver's price increase is attributed to its dual role as both an investment and an industrial metal, with demand rising from sectors like electronics and photovoltaics, which are experiencing high growth [2][4]. Group 2: Specific Metal Demand Drivers - Copper demand is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of AI, which requires substantial electrical and computational infrastructure, with projections indicating that data centers will need large quantities of copper [3]. - Policies in China, such as "Two New" and "Two Heavy," are expected to boost copper demand by supporting durable consumer goods and major engineering projects [3]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is benefiting from the rapid growth of the global energy storage market, particularly in the U.S. and EU, where stable power supply and electric vehicle adoption are driving the need for lithium batteries [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Considerations - Supply disruptions are contributing to the price increases, with uncertainties in the supply of certain metals like silver, which is often produced as a byproduct [6]. - Potential tariffs on non-ferrous metals proposed by the U.S. could lead to increased prices, prompting suppliers to stockpile metals like copper and silver in anticipation of price hikes [6].

"静态平衡表显示，原油供需失衡的格局将从2025年下半年延续至2026年，其价格中枢面临下移压 力。"在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第十期中，银河期货研究所高级研究员赵若晨对 2026年原油市场进行了深度分析。 她表示，在OPEC+加速增产以及非OPEC+产油国持续释放供应，而原油需求放缓的背景下，2026年原 油供需失衡将加剧。 原油供应步入扩张周期 赵若晨表示，供应扩张是导致原油供需失衡的主要原因。2025年以来，OPEC+增产路径明确，其自愿 减产已在2025年三季度提前结束，并启动了新一轮增产计划，预计2026年大概率维持增产，有效的供应 弹性约在100万桶/日。 非OPEC+产油国的供应亦同步增长。赵若晨表示，预计美国页岩油产量在2025年11月达到创纪录的 1386万桶/日。尽管行业对2026年资本支出态度保守，但技术创新仍在支撑原油产量的韧性。值得注意 的是，2026年加拿大、巴西、圭亚那等国的项目将继续为市场贡献稳定增量。 需求增长趋缓 与供应端的扩张相比，原油需求稍显乏力。赵若晨分析称，从长周期看，全球经济增速放缓导致石油需 求增速已下降至1%左右。从能源结构看，交通燃料需求 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite an increase in peanut planting area in 2025, the overall quality of domestic peanuts is declining, leading to a surplus of low-grade peanuts and a differentiation in pricing between high-quality and low-quality products [1] - The peanut market is experiencing weak demand from both consumption and processing sectors, resulting in a situation where high-quality peanuts maintain stable prices while low-quality peanuts see price drops [1] - As of early December, peanut arrivals at oil factories have increased, leading to a decline in purchase prices, with futures contracts falling below 8000 yuan/ton and entering a phase of consolidation [1] Group 2 - As of December 19, the theoretical crushing profit for peanuts in Shandong was 316 yuan/ton, down from 376 yuan/ton at the end of November, yet still at a near five-year high [2] - Peanut oil and peanut meal prices have been declining since the National Day holiday, with peanut oil priced at 14,383 yuan/ton (down 7.25%) and peanut meal at 3,125 yuan/ton (down 3.55%) [2] - Oil factories are reducing peanut purchase prices to offset losses from declining prices of peanut oil and meal, with purchase prices dropping to 7,200 yuan/ton, an 8.86% decrease since the National Day holiday [2] Group 3 - Peanut meal prices in Shandong have decreased to 3,120 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices have increased to 3,040 yuan/ton, indicating a lack of correlation in price movements [3] - High levels of peanut inventory, reaching 106,900 tons as of December 19, are contributing to the weak demand for peanut by-products, despite attractive crushing profits [3] - The current stock levels for peanut oil have reached 45,350 tons, the highest for the same period since 2021, indicating a supply surplus [3] Group 4 - Approximately 30% of peanuts remain unsold with farmers, leading to an extended selling period, which may suppress market prices ahead of the Spring Festival [4] - The quality of peanuts is notably varied this year, with uncertainties in the import market due to new tariffs and logistical challenges affecting supply from Africa [4] - To break the current market stagnation, several positive factors are needed, including increased demand for peanut by-products, heightened purchasing activity from oil factories, and a rebound in the broader oil and protein markets [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dual焦 (coke and coking coal) prices are expected to steadily rise by 2026 due to policy support and supply constraints, while the steel market is transitioning to a dynamic balance, with price stability anticipated [1] Group 2 - The steel industry's main contradiction this year is that the decline in demand is greater than the decline in production, leading to a continuous decrease in crude steel apparent consumption for the fifth consecutive year [2] - The real estate sector is undergoing deep adjustments, with infrastructure investment growth turning negative and manufacturing investment growth dropping below 3%, which impacts overall steel demand [2] - Despite the pressure on demand, steel mill profits are expected to recover significantly in 2025 due to raw material cost reductions [2] - The demand structure for steel is expected to continue adjusting in 2026, with limited incremental demand from real estate policies focused on "digesting stock" and building "good houses" [2] - Manufacturing and exports are anticipated to support steel demand, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a strong manufacturing nation [2] - Although steel demand remains in a downward trend, the space for further decline is limited [2] Group 3 - The dual焦 market is currently in a "tight balance" state, with both coking enterprises and steel mills maintaining low inventory strategies [3] - Domestic coal prices have shown a downward trend, with a significant decrease in coking coal imports, which fell by 4.8% year-on-year [3] - The demand structure for coal is undergoing profound changes, with a slight increase in thermal coal consumption [3] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to experience a "tight balance" in supply and demand, with prices likely to show strong fluctuations due to policy support and supply contraction [3] - The profitability of coking enterprises is constrained by excess capacity and limited bargaining power, leading to ongoing profit competition among steel enterprises [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the recent surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by expectations of a weaker dollar and improved demand conditions [2][3][6] - Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen significant price increases, with central banks and Wall Street investors becoming major buyers, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [3][6] - The silver market benefits from both investment demand and industrial applications, with the gold-silver ratio previously exceeding 80:1, which has influenced silver price increases [3][6] Group 2 - Copper demand is expected to rise significantly due to two main catalysts: the global development of AI, which requires substantial electrical and computational resources, and China's policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][6] - The demand for lithium carbonate is being driven by the rapid growth of the global energy storage market, particularly in the US, EU, and China, where lithium batteries are increasingly used for energy management [5][6] - The prices of polysilicon are rising due to industry stockpiling and increased demand for photovoltaic products from the EU and Belt and Road Initiative countries [5][6] Group 3 - The overall increase in demand for metals is attributed to three main factors: the growth of AI leading to higher demand for non-ferrous metals, the implementation of China's policies enhancing metal demand, and the global shift towards a green economy stimulating demand for new energy metals [6] - Supply disruptions are also contributing to the price increases, with uncertainties in the supply of certain non-ferrous metals, such as silver, which is often produced as a byproduct [6]

非OPEC+产油国的供应亦同步增长。赵若晨表示，预计美国页岩油产量在2025年11月达到创纪录的1386万桶/日。尽管行业对 2026年资本支出态度保守，但技术创新仍在支撑原油产量的韧性。值得注意的是，2026年加拿大、巴西、圭亚那等国的项目将 继续为市场贡献稳定增量。 需求增长趋缓 与供应端的扩张相比，原油需求稍显乏力。赵若晨分析称，从长周期看，全球经济增速放缓导致石油需求增速已下降至1%左 右。从能源结构看，交通燃料需求因新能源替代而进入下降通道。未来，原油的需求增长将主要依靠化工原料(石脑油、NGL)来 支撑。 她表示，在OPEC+加速增产以及非OPEC+产油国持续释放供应，而原油需求放缓的背景下，2026年原油供需失衡将加剧。 原油供应步入扩张周期 赵若晨表示，供应扩张是导致原油供需失衡的主要原因。2025年以来，OPEC+增产路径明确，其自愿减产已在2025年三季度提 前结束，并启动了新一轮增产计划，预计2026年大概率维持增产，有效的供应弹性约在100万桶/日。 具体到主要消费国，赵若晨认为，美国油品需求整体平稳；中国则呈现"原料加工需求尚可，下游需求偏弱"的特征，汽油、柴 油需求因新能源替代和经 ...

工作不好找？期货行业招工难？这种形势下，期货公司如何破局？ 政策与行业协同。中国期货业协会等机构积极推动人才培训和政策支持。行业正努力构建"入学—入职 —在职"的全职业周期培养体系，并将金融科技、人工智能等新技能纳入培养方案，以匹配行业数字化 转型的需要。 推动行业整体形象提升。加强期货市场功能作用的宣传，提升行业整体形象和社会认知度，有助于增强 对人才的吸引力。 在"稳就业"方面，中辉期货坚信，企业成长与国家战略同频共振方能彰显长远价值。从创立之初，"以 人为本"便被中辉期货定为公司的人才战略。 期货行业是我国金融领域的重要组成部分。近年来，随着期货市场的蓬勃发展和服务实体经济功能的日 益深化，行业对人才的需求愈发迫切，但也面临着"需求旺盛"与"结构性短缺"的局面。数据显示，截至 2025年10月，期货从业人员近9万人。但是，期货公司仍为人才流失及招不到合适的员工而苦恼。 对此，中辉期货综合管理部负责人认为有以下三点原因： 一、人才供给与需求错配。许多金融毕业生怀揣着"交易员"或"分析师"的梦想入行，但行业大量的基础 岗位是具有销售性质的市场开发。这导致毕业生的期望与现实不符，人才流动频繁。此外，风控、合规 ...

近期，贵金属及有色金属板块连续大涨，市场参与热情较高。期货日报记者注意到，为了防范市场风险，12月26日上期所发布通知，提示市场做好风险控 制。通知显示，近期国际形势复杂多变，有色金属和贵金属品种波动较大，请各有关单位采取相应措施，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，理性投资，共同 维护市场平稳运行。 元旦假期临近，上期所同日发布《关于2026年元旦期间有关工作安排的通知》，对黄金、白银相关期货合约的涨跌停板幅度及交易保证金比例做出调整。 此外，2026年1月5日(星期一)交易后，自第一个未出现单边市的交易日收盘结算时，涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例调整如下：黄金期货AU2601、 AU2602、AU2603、AU2604合约，白银期货AG2601、AG2602、AG2603、AG2604合约维持涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例不变；其他期货合约的涨跌 停板幅度和交易保证金比例恢复至原有水平。 记者注意到，自12月以来，上期所针对贵金属市场行情多次发布风险提示和风控举措，引导市场理性参与：12月8日，发布针对贵金属市场的风险提示； 12月10日，调整白银期货相关合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度；12月22日，调整白银期货相 ...

广期所通知称，自2025年12月30日结算时起，工业硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度及交易保证金标准维持不 变；多晶硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度维持不变，投机交易保证金标准、套期保值交易保证金标准调整为 15%；碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，投机交易保证金标准调整为12%，套期保值交易保证 金标准调整为11%；铂、钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为13%，投机交易保证金标准、套期保值交易保 证金标准调整为15%。2026年1月5日恢复交易后，自各品种期货持仓量最大的合约未出现涨跌停板单边 无连续报价的第一个交易日结算时起，工业硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度及交易保证金标准维持不变；多晶 硅、铂及钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度、投机交易保证金标准及套期保值交易保证金标准维持假期期间标准 不变；碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度、投机交易保证金标准及套期保值交易保证金标准恢复至调整前水 平。(齐宣) 本报讯12月26日，上期所、郑商所、广期所分别发布通知，公布2026年元旦假期风控措施。 郑商所通知称，自2025年12月30日结算时起，棉花、菜油、菜粕、PTA、甲醇、短纤、对二甲苯、瓶片 期货合约的交易保证金标准为9%，涨跌停板幅度为8%，其中菜粕 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that major exchanges, including CME Group, are raising margin requirements for various metal futures due to increased market volatility and concerns over price fluctuations in the precious metals market [2][5][7] - CME Group announced on December 26 that it will increase the margin requirements for gold, silver, lithium, and other metal futures after market close on December 29, reflecting deep concerns about abnormal volatility in the precious metals market [2][5] - The margin adjustments are based on the CME SPAN system, which objectively calculates the maximum potential loss of investment portfolios under adverse conditions, leading to differentiated margin standards for various products [5][6] Group 2 - The margin for COMEX 100-ounce gold futures will increase from $20,000 and $22,000 to $22,000 and $24,200, representing a 10% increase, while the margin for COMEX 5000-ounce silver futures will see an increase of over 13% [7] - Palladium futures, which have the lowest liquidity, will experience the highest margin increase of 20%, attributed to significant supply gaps and poor liquidity [7] - The adjustments reflect a broader trend in the market, with domestic futures exchanges also raising margin requirements for silver, gold, lithium carbonate, platinum, and palladium ahead of the New Year holiday [8][9]