Group 1: Gold Market Overview - International gold prices have maintained a high level of fluctuation after reaching a historical high, with support around $3200 per ounce [1] - The upward momentum for gold prices is contingent on additional positive factors, while previous drivers such as central bank purchases and investment demand are losing marginal effectiveness [1] - The ongoing de-dollarization process, frequent geopolitical crises, and a declining dollar exchange rate are preventing significant downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with second-quarter economic growth primarily correcting distortions from the first quarter rather than indicating strengthened growth momentum [2] - Private domestic sales growth slowed to 1.2% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first quarter, marking the slowest growth in domestic demand since Q4 2022 [2] - Employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and a downward revision of previous months' data [2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The impact of tariffs on U.S. prices has raised inflation concerns, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [3] - The increase in effective tax rates has further escalated inflation rates in import-intensive categories such as furniture and clothing [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Following the release of July's employment data, some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a dovish stance, with discussions of potential rate cuts [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is at 94.1%, with a 62.4% chance of a 50 basis point cut by October [4] - Increased demand for gold investments has been observed, with holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF rising to 964.2 tons, surpassing previous records [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand in Q2 increased by 3% year-on-year to 1248.8 tons, with investment demand remaining stable despite a decline in physical demand due to rising gold prices [5] - Investment demand for gold reached 477.2 tons in Q2, a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in gold bars and coins [5] - In July, there was a further inflow of $3.2 billion into physically-backed gold ETFs [5] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Risks - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term debt since raising the debt ceiling, which could drain liquidity from the financial system [6] - The cash balance in the Treasury General Account is expected to rise significantly, potentially impacting bank reserves and increasing the risk of dollar liquidity issues [6] - A decline in the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements may lead to pressure in the financing market [6]

从绝对量看，当前独立焦化厂和钢厂的焦炭库存高于往年同期，而港口库存低于往年同期，库存总量则 高于往年同期;从变化量看，上游环节和钢厂库存较6月末均出现增长，而港口库存有所消耗。库存出现 一定积累的原因有二：其一，在6月焦炭现货价格连续六轮上涨的背景下，钢厂调整了采购节奏;其二， 7月，高炉出现一定减产。不过，当前，焦炭库存的积累尚不明显，对价格的利空有限。 绝大部分的焦炭被用于钢铁生产的高炉炼铁环节，研判焦炭需求变化，必须关注生铁产量变化和全国高 炉产能利用率变化。全国生铁产量是月度数据，可以反映中期的需求变化，高炉产能利用率是周度数 据，可以反映短期的需求变化。 数据显示，今年上半年，全国生铁产量为43268.1万吨，同比增长2.2%，证明焦炭需求处于扩张状态。 从高炉产能利用率看，全国163家钢厂高炉产能利用率持续上升，从2月底的低点72.67%最高上升至 79.77%，这一数据与生铁产量数据相互验证。 7月，由于高炉利润被明显压缩，高炉产能利用率一度下降，但降幅并不大。7月中旬，全国163家钢厂 高炉产能利用率最低降至78.63%，这样的降幅对焦炭的需求影响有限。7月最后一周，全国163家钢厂 高炉产能 ...

得益于国内甲醇港口库存去化预期增强，同时下游需求有望稳步改善，基本面利多因素提振多头主力推 涨期价，空头主力自知不敌，主动撤退。上周，国内甲醇2101合约呈现放量减仓上行走势，期价再创今 年3月以来的新高2058元/吨。 近一周，甲醇期货2101合约持仓量呈现先增后减态势。其中，多空前20名席位均显著减仓。数据显示， 多头前20名席位的持仓量从8月28日的627620手减少至9月4日的621026手，累计减少6594手;空头前20名 席位的持仓量从8月28日的819244手减少至9月4日的792477手，累计减少26767手。由于甲醇基本面偏乐 观，虽然上周五遭遇宏观利空风险冲击，但是多头尾盘反击明显，空头主力被迫选择撤离。由此导致多 空前20名席位的净空头寸显著回落。数据显示，2101合约净空头寸由8月28日的191624手减少至9月4日 的171451手，净减20173手，降幅达10.53%。 具体来看，在空头前20名席位中，减持的席位有13家，增持的席位有7家。减持方面，东证期货席位和 海通期货席位减持数量居前，分别减少25453手和11253手。同时，申银万国期货席位、银河期货席位、 国泰君安期货席位 ...

油脂油料：上周外盘美豆仍然继续创新高，周度美豆优良率延续下滑态势。同时，由于之前中西部部分 地区干旱，机构下调美豆单产预测，令市场继续走强。同时，中国仍然在快速采购美豆，周度出口销售 报告超出市场预期。油脂市场继续走高，豆油和棕榈油继续创出新高，市场对于国内豆油收储对油脂带 来的提振呈现乐观预期。棕榈油方面，产地和国内棕榈油库存都处于较低水平，但是8月以来产地棕榈 油出口环比放缓，产量环比微增。当前，市场预估8月底马来西亚棕榈油库存将增至180万吨左右，上月 为170万吨。国内方面，油厂延续高压榨，周度压榨仍维持在200万吨左右水平，国内油厂豆粕库存继续 积累，当前豆粕库存已增至历史偏高水平，但是豆粕成本端受美盘提振，期价延续振荡偏强格局。 玉米：玉米期价在高位振荡，目前市场多空均有相应空间和炒作题材。多头方面，台风"美莎克"导致吉 林东部受灾严重，第15次临储的当日利空指导效应已经消失，释放多头空间;空头方面，市场流传3条消 息，分别是"中粮获得1000万吨配额外进口额度""国粮局定向3000万吨饲用水稻、小麦拍卖将于近两周 内展开"以及"国家决定轮换粮不再轮回"。从大逻辑上看，在经济缓慢恢复中，控制CPI ...

煤矿主产区严查 近期，郑煤走势强劲，连续拉涨并突破580点;港口动力煤价格也小幅上调。其根本原因在于供应端持续 收缩以及运输遇阻，上下游传导不畅加剧了供需错配。 近期青海露天矿违法开采事件进一步发酵，使得露天矿严查关停预期进一步升温;陕北地区露天矿也面 临严查，部分煤矿已经关停。今年以来，主产区煤矿持续面临严格的监察，内蒙古?"倒查20年"的政策 力度很大，极大抑制了超产煤;陕西地区煤管票政策执行得非常严格，并且露天矿开采受到显著影响。 整体来看，今年以来国内打击黑煤、超产煤力度加大。有关机构发布的数据显示，今年1—7月原煤累计 产量21.2亿吨，同比下降0.1%;7月原煤产量环比进一步下降，单月产量为3.2亿吨，同比下降3.7%，环比 下降4.9%。 在扩大内循环的政策主导下，今年全年专项债发行规模是3.75万亿元，1—8月已经发行2.9万亿元，后期 剩余额度8537亿元，财政部要求在10月底前全部发行，那么9—10月月均发行规模为4268亿元，明显高 于1—8月月均发行力度。大规模的专项债投放将明显支撑新基建、新型城镇化建设，交通、水利等重大 工程建设，从而带动第二产业用电量回升。除基建大发力外，9月房地 ...

中信建投期货黑色系研究员赵永均告诉期货日报记者，宏观预期向上，市场风险偏好持续回升，三季度 受雨季影响需求回落明显，但市场对"金九银十"旺季预期强烈，螺纹钢价格稳中有升。回顾今年螺纹钢 市场，高库存、低利润成为最主要的特点。 "进入9月份以来，钢材产量处于历史同期最高水平，但销量与去年基本持平，这也是近期钢材价格回落 的一个重要原因。"赵永均说，分地区来看，西南、华东和华南三地产量同比增幅明显高于其他地区， 并且销售表现羸弱。受唐山限产影响，华北地区产量下降明显，并且近期成交转好，特别是雄安地区， 但销量仍未达到二季度水平，其他地区产销情况比较温和。 分析师告诉期货日报记者，9月是传统的需求旺季，上周期货市场的大跌并没有击垮贸易商的信心，本 周看涨钢材市场的人数增加。虽然钢贸商对后市较为乐观，但其中也有部分人认为目前库存压力仍不容 小视，短期的上涨空间较为有限，预计本周涨幅不足30元/吨。 据有关统计，目前共有产线检修计划12起，涉及11家钢厂、20条以上产线，预计影响成材产量4.615万 吨/天左右。目前共有高炉检修计划7起，涉及7家钢厂、9座高炉，预计影响铁水产量3.68万吨/天左右， 其中正在检修2起， ...

Core Viewpoint - Europe is experiencing a new heatwave, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in several regions, leading to wildfires and casualties [1] Group 1: Weather Impact - Multiple regions in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, and the Balkans are facing extreme heat and wildfires, resulting in at least 4 fatalities and thousands of evacuations [1] - Spain's national meteorological agency reported temperatures reaching up to 44 degrees Celsius in certain areas, exacerbating the risk of wildfires due to high temperatures, strong winds, and low rainfall [1] Group 2: Wildfire Incidents - In Madrid's suburbs, a fire destroyed a stable, resulting in one death, and spread to nearby farms and homes [1] - In Catalonia, a 61-year-old Hungarian laborer died while working in the fields, suspected to be related to the extreme heat [1] - Castilla y León reported 32 active fire points, with over 1,200 firefighters deployed for firefighting efforts, leading to mass evacuations [1] Group 3: Firefighting Efforts - In northern Portugal, over 1,300 firefighters and 16 aircraft are engaged in firefighting, with one wildfire burning for 10 days [1] - Turkey's northwest, Albania, and Montenegro are also reporting large-scale wildfires, with casualties including a man in Albania and a soldier in Montenegro [1] - Greece has initiated emergency evacuations for tourists in several wildfire-affected areas [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has issued a risk warning letter highlighting the increased uncertainty factors affecting the market, urging member units to enhance investor education and risk prevention efforts, and reminding investors to participate rationally and trade in compliance [1] Group 1 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has identified multiple uncertainty factors impacting the market [1] - The exchange emphasizes the importance of investor education and risk prevention measures [1] - Investors are advised to engage in rational participation and comply with trading regulations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, has allocated 1.146 billion yuan to support disaster prevention and relief in agricultural production, focusing on stabilizing autumn grain production in 13 major grain-producing provinces [1] Group 1: Financial Support - The central government has provided financial assistance specifically for the application of plant growth regulators, foliar fertilizers, stress resistance agents, and pesticides to key autumn grain crops such as corn, soybeans, and medium rice [1] - This funding aims to ensure stable autumn grain production and contribute to a successful overall grain harvest for the year [1]

期货日报网讯（记者 曲德辉 见习记者 肖佳煊）8月13日，股票市场全天震荡走高，沪指突破去年10月8 日高点，创近4年新高。A股全天成交额2.18万亿元，较上个交易日放量2699.99亿元，全市场超2700只 个股上涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.48%，深成指涨1.76%，创业板指涨3.62%。 中邮证券指出，PEEK材料耐磨、耐热、抗腐蚀、密度较低质量较小，在性能、商业价值上都处于工程 塑料的"皇冠"位置，目前在汽车制造业、航空航天业、工业制造业、医疗行业得到了广泛的应用。 从板块来看，AI硬件股持续爆发，工业富联等多股续创历史新高。券商股一度冲高，国盛金控2连板。 有色金属概念股震荡走强，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业双双创历史新高。板块方面，有色金属、PEEK材料、 CPO、光刻机等板块涨幅居前，煤炭、银行、港口、物流等板块跌幅居前。 中金公司认为，算力是后GPT-5时代的"硬通货"，在"DeepSeek创新热"过后，全球各大模型厂商在2025 正以更快的节奏将更强能力的产品推向市场；用户侧，token的加速消耗也推动着算力需求持续提升。 银河证券也表示，AI应用强赋能推动算力硬件高成长可期，通信行业在系统协同优化趋势下 ...