AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 2025年8月，美国总统特朗普在"真相社交"（Truth Social）平台发文，猛烈抨击其第一任期财政部长史 蒂文·姆努钦（Steven Mnuchin），因其2017年建议自己任命鲍威尔为美联储主席。 特朗普数月来一直怒斥鲍威尔降息速度不够快，他在文中写道："史蒂夫·'曼努钦'（此处为特朗普故意 写错姓氏）给我推了这么个'废物'，真是'帮了大忙'。他总是行动迟缓，造成的损失不可估量。" 这番对特朗普第一任期最忠诚内阁成员之一的尖锐批评，正值现任财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）筹备为鲍威尔寻找继任者之际——鲍威尔的主席任期将于明年到期。 下一任美联储主席的任命事关重大。特朗普毫不掩饰地表示，期望自己选中的人能迅速降息。但这一任 命也让贝森特陷入异常尴尬的境地，特朗普明确表示，这位财政部长的前途与美联储接下来的行动紧密 挂钩。 上月在华盛顿的一场演讲中，特朗普开玩笑称，对贝森特未能说动鲍威尔降息感到失望。 "斯科特唯一搞砸的就是美联储的事，"这位美国总统在沙特投资论坛的讲话中表示，"要是你不赶紧搞 定，我就解雇你。" 特朗普预计将很 ...

彼得斯发表此番评论时，债券交易员和大型宏观基金经理正在推演特朗普重组美联储带来的影响——即便只是政策变动的蛛丝马迹，也可能在全球市场引发 震荡。在特朗普数月来对美联储发起前所未有的攻击（包括辱骂鲍威尔、试图罢免理事会成员库克）之后，他任命鸽派美联储主席的可能性不断上升。 哈塞特被广泛认为支持特朗普偏好低利率的立场。特朗普本周表示，美联储主席一职的角逐"已锁定最终人选"，同时称哈塞特是"潜在的美联储主席人选"。 PGIM固定收益部门联席首席投资官格雷戈里·彼得斯（Gregory Peters）表示，即便凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）获得批准出任下一任美联储主席，他也可能 无法实现美国总统特朗普所期望的快速降息节奏。 彼得斯发表上述言论之际，外界普遍猜测，如果白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特被任命为美联储主席，他可能会为了取悦特朗普而大幅降息。但这位PGIM 基金经理指出，由于美联储的利率决策最终由委员会决定，哈塞特无法仅凭一己之力兑现这一诉求。 同时担任美国财政部借款顾问委员会成员的彼得斯在接受彭博电视台采访时表示，"他在委员会内部是否有足够的公信力来推动共识？我们不知道答案。我 认为他没有这种公信力， ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 随着存储价格上涨，处理器、电池等笔记本关键组件的成本也在同步攀升。这位经理指出，哪怕生产成 本只上涨一美分，PC制造商都会高度敏感。他补充说，10月之后生产的系统已经处于亏损状态，因为 零售端价格无法同步调整。 音频由扣子空间生成 据Digital Asia，PC制造商正计划对2026年新款产品大幅提价。 随着对AI硬件的需求飙升导致传统存储芯片出现严重短缺，供应被进一步挤压，组件成本被推高。据 ZDNet Korea的报道，这一短缺正迫使华硕、宏碁和联想等主要厂商上调2026年机型的售价，ZDNet Korea称业内普遍计划至少涨价20%。 在AI与传统PC业务争夺有限产能的背景下，行业人士预期折扣周期可能要到2028年才会回来。若主流 存储产能无法重建，未来两到三年PC厂商都将承受持续的供应紧缩与高成本压力，PC市场的价格底线 将被彻底改写。 AI需求挤压PC组件供应 此次存储短缺源于三星电子、SK海力士以及美光科技将产能向高带宽存储HBM倾斜。这类高利润组件 是AI加速器的关键，也因此急剧压缩了主流PC组件的供应，包括DDR5与LPDDR5 DRAM以及SSD。 据 ...

高盛集团为有关铜前景的辩论注入了一些谨慎声音，称其突破每吨1.1万美元的涨势将被证明是短暂 的，因为仍有超多的金属可以满足全球需求。 包括奥蕾莉亚·沃尔瑟姆（Aurelia Waltham）在内的该行分析师在一份报告中写道："近期铜价上涨大部 分是基于对未来市场紧张的预期，而非当前的基本面。我们预计当前突破1.1万美元的情况不会持续。" 由于担忧在全球关税征收前，铜正被抢运至美国，导致全球供应紧缩，铜价周三在伦敦金属交易所飙升 至每吨11540美元的创纪录水平。大宗商品贸易公司摩科瑞能源集团（Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.）上周 警告供应出现"极端"错配，加剧了此轮行情。 亚太地区矿业股周四跟随铜价上涨。香港上市的洛阳钼业（CMOC Group Ltd.）上涨6%，澳大利亚上市 的Capstone Copper涨幅高达8.2%，其他矿业股亦普遍上涨。 尽管高盛上调了对明年上半年的铜价预测，并表示美国的关税贸易将支撑价格，但该行暗示，通过提高 区域溢价和收紧伦敦金属交易所价差，可以避免美国以外地区库存"严重偏低"的情况。 高盛表示，今年需求将比供应少约50万吨，而铜短缺要到2029年才会出 ...

Core Insights - The CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, expressed concerns about AI companies taking on excessive risks by committing vast sums of money for AI system development, highlighting a dilemma in the industry regarding investment versus uncertain economic returns [2][3] Group 1: Investment and Risk Management - Companies are facing a dilemma of needing to invest heavily in data centers, which take years to develop, while the speed of AI's economic value growth remains uncertain [3] - Amodei noted that some companies are operating recklessly, referring to them as having "turned the risk knob too high" [3] - OpenAI has committed $1.4 trillion to AI infrastructure projects, raising concerns about a potential AI bubble [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI employees, aims to position itself as a responsible AI manager, focusing on enterprise rather than consumer applications [4] - Anthropic raised $13 billion in a recent funding round, achieving a valuation of $183 billion, and is planning a large-scale IPO potentially exceeding $300 billion [4] - The company is in discussions for new private funding, with Microsoft and Nvidia planning to jointly invest $15 billion [4] Group 3: Product Focus and Market Position - Anthropic has not experienced urgent situations like "red alerts" that competitors such as OpenAI and Google have faced, as it focuses on enterprise-level AI [5] - The company's models are designed for enterprise needs, emphasizing coding, intellectual activities, and scientific capabilities rather than user interaction [5] - Anthropic's latest model, Claude Opus 4.5, excels in generating computer code and office documents, differentiating it from competitors [5][6]

一位经验丰富的美国白银矿业高管表示，白银这轮破纪录上涨的幕后推手并非对冲基金，而是强劲的实 物需求，这一需求短期内根本无法满足。 Hecla Mining前首席执行官、现为行业顾问的菲尔·贝克（Phil Baker）表示，如今贵金属专业人士承受 的压力之大，是他前所未见的。 他提到："在伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）的会议上，市场参与者对白银问题的担忧和压力，真的让我 感到震惊，这种压力是我以前从未见过的。"他进一步指出："对我来说，很明显，这些人不会再允许他 们的库存跌到以前那么低的水平了。"白银需求的潜在驱动力 当投资者将焦点放在西方期货市场上时，贝克认为，印度才是白银故事的核心。 他直言："在我看来，真正推动白银价格上涨的，是印度正在发生的一切。"他强调："它就是真正的驱 动力，名副其实的。" 他提到，印度作为全球第五大经济体，其白银进口量正在飙升。他透露，印度10月进口了大约6000万盎 司白银，而一年前约为1500万盎司。贝克表示："需求依然是'永无止境'的。" 根据印度贸易和政府数据显示，印度在2023年至2024年的白银进口量确实激增，使其成为全球最大的白 银消费国之一。 白银从伦敦流出的目的地是 ...

哈祖斯预计，美联储将在1月暂停降息周期，随后在3月和6月实施降息，从而将联邦基金利率推低 至3%-3.25%的最终水平（目前为3.75%-4%）。 通胀将如何影响美联储政策？ SHMET 网讯：尽管美联储很可能在12月降息，但2026年的货币政策前景则更难预测。高盛研究团 队的基本"工作假设"是，随着经济增长重新加速且通胀降温，政策制定者将在明年上半年放缓宽松步 伐。 高盛研究团队首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）在团队最新的《全球展望》报告中写道，大幅 延迟发布的9月就业报告显示出劳动力市场降温的迹象，这可能已为联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在 12月会议上降息25个基点一锤定音。 他补充道，考虑到下一份就业报告定于12月16日发布，而下一份消费者价格通胀数据将于12月18日 公布，"日程表上几乎没有什么能阻碍12月10日的降息决定。" 2026年预计会有多少次美联储降息？ 明年的降息前景则不那么明朗。高盛研究团队预测，由于关税影响减弱，加之减税措施和更为宽松 的金融环境，美国经济增长将在2026年加速至2%-2.5%。 高盛的经济学家预计，这些因素将促进就业创造，并将失业率稳定在仅略高于今年 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US ADP employment numbers decreased by 32,000 in November, marking the lowest level since March 2023, while the market had expected an increase of 10,000 [11] - The US Treasury Secretary, Yellen, indicated that certain sectors of the economy are showing signs of weakness, suggesting a need for interest rate cuts [11] - The dollar index fell by 0.45% to 98.88, following the unexpected drop in employment data, which heightened expectations for a rate cut next week [2][6] Group 2: Market Performance - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil increasing by 0.84% to $59.12 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 0.64% to $62.78 per barrel, as investors believe that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to lead to the lifting of oil-related sanctions [3] - The US stock market saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise by 0.86%, the S&P 500 by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq by 0.17%, while Nvidia shares fell by 1% and Tesla shares rose by 4% [3] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by 1.28% to 25,760.73, with the technology index dropping by 1.58% [4] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish long-term outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026 due to strong demand from central banks and investors [11] - The company Moer Thread is set to be listed on the STAR Market on December 5 [11] - The new stock LeMo Technology saw a first-day increase of 36.25% upon its listing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has urged Italy to reconsider a proposal that declares its gold reserves as property of the people, which critics argue could pave the way for the government to sell gold [1][2] Group 1: ECB's Position - The ECB's governing council requested the Italian government to reassess the proposal to maintain the independence of the Italian central bank under the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) [1] - The ECB expressed uncertainty regarding the specific purpose of the proposed clause, highlighting that gold is already considered national property [1][2] Group 2: Economic Context - Italy's economy is projected to grow only 0.5% this year, with debt significantly exceeding 130% of economic output, complicating fiscal support for citizens and growth initiatives [3] - The Italian government has included tax cuts for the middle class in its latest budget proposal, which is expected to be approved by year-end, and has successfully reduced the deficit to within the EU's 3% limit [3] Group 3: Gold Reserves and Political Implications - Approximately half of Italy's gold reserves are stored in the central bank's vaults in Rome, with the remainder located in the US, UK, and Switzerland [4] - Former Italian central bank governor Salvatore Rossi warned that approving the amendment could lead to significant conflict with European institutions, questioning the political wisdom of such a move [2]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is shifting focus towards robotics technology, with plans for an executive order potentially being announced next year [1] - The Department of Commerce is committed to the development of robotics and advanced manufacturing as a core strategy to bring critical production back to the U.S. [1] - Interest from Congress is growing, with proposals for a national robotics committee being discussed, indicating that robotics technology is becoming a major focus area [1] Group 2 - Significant investment is required to catch up in the robotics sector, with funding expected to reach $2.3 billion by 2025, doubling from the previous year [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the global humanoid robotics market could reach $38 billion by 2035, highlighting the industry's growth potential [2] - Companies are seeking tax incentives and federal funding to integrate advanced automation and enhance supply chains [2] Group 3 - A paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research indicates that automation may lead to job losses and reduced income for workers in replaceable roles [3] - There is a contrasting vision where robotics and manufacturing can mutually benefit each other, promoting job creation through the development and maintenance of robots [3] - The Association for Advancing Automation suggests that robotics can enhance worker productivity, potentially expanding job opportunities rather than replacing them [3]