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黄金迎来历史性转折:三大驱动力引爆1979年以来最强涨势
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-16 03:09
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift towards a fiscal-led era in the U.S. economy, driven by ongoing political pressures on the Federal Reserve and rising inflation due to tariffs, which may lead to gold replacing the dollar as the primary store of value [1][4]. Group 1: Economic and Market Dynamics - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 31.38% as of the end of August, marking its best performance since 1979, positioning it as one of the strongest asset classes for the year [1]. - The U.S. government's approach to the Federal Reserve is a significant factor in gold's recent rise and the dollar's continued weakness [1][2]. - The labor market data indicates a more severe economic slowdown than expected, while inflation data remains complex and concerning [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence and Political Pressure - The struggle for control over the Federal Reserve has significant implications for gold and the dollar, with President Trump’s actions raising unprecedented legal and constitutional questions regarding presidential power and central bank independence [2][3]. - The dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member due to alleged mortgage fraud has sparked concerns about the independence of the Fed, which has historically not seen such dismissals since its establishment in 1913 [2][3]. - The current political climate may lead to a more politicized Federal Reserve, potentially transforming it into a tool for the White House [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Gold Demand - Inflation risks are increasingly driven by monetary and fiscal policies rather than demand, which is favorable for gold [2]. - The anticipated rise in commodity costs due to tariffs is expected to increase inflationary pressures, further boosting gold demand as a hedge against purchasing power erosion [3][4]. - The potential for negative real interest rates, driven by fiscal policies and regulatory easing, may enhance gold's appeal as a store of value [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Global Financial System - The article suggests that the current dollar-centric global financial system may become unsustainable, with a shift towards gold as a neutral reserve asset [4][6]. - The increasing trust in gold over fiat currencies is evidenced by central banks accumulating gold reserves, highlighting its role as a stable alternative in a changing monetary landscape [4][5]. - The anticipated economic policies, including the "Great and Beautiful" Act and tax cuts, are expected to stimulate the economy, further supporting gold's upward trajectory [5][6].
贝莱德:低市场波动性预示黄金战术机遇,配置比例可升至4%
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-16 03:07
全球最大资产管理公司认为,即使金价突破每盎司3600美元,黄金仍具有巨大价值,并可能继续成为投 资者宝贵的多元化配置工具。 贝莱德全球配置团队董事总经理兼投资组合经理拉斯·科斯特里奇(Russ Koesterich)在最新评论中重申 了对黄金的看涨观点,但对此立场添加了新的注脚。 "短期内或有理由将配置比例提高至该区间的上限。如果波动性如秋季通常表现那样上升,黄金往往会 出现相对于股票的强劲表现,"他称。 在今年这个极度波动且充满经济与地缘政治不确定性的时期,科斯特里奇指出,广泛衡量市场恐慌情绪 的VIX指数最近已跌破15点,创下2月以来最低水平。 "即使是股市波动性的小幅上升也可能利好黄金。回顾过去十五年,黄金相对于股票的表现与隐含波动 率的周度或月度变化之间存在非常一致的关系,"他表示,"历史数据显示,波动率飙升20%通常伴随黄 金平均每周超额收益达3%;在VIX指数罕见飙升50%或以上的情况下,黄金平均超额收益超过5%。" 在年初令人失望的开局之后,标普500指数动能已逐渐增强,该指数近期重返历史高点。尽管科斯特里 奇仍看好股票,但他补充称,随着波动性大幅下降,市场风险正在累积。 "自5月以来,投资者重 ...
美联储9月票委尘埃落定:米兰携白宫身份强势入驻,库克惊险守住席位
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-16 01:50
米兰在当地时间周一深夜获得快速确认,意味着他将出席周二在华盛顿召开的备受市场期待的联邦 公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议。米兰曾表示一旦获得确认,计划从白宫经济顾问委员会主席职位上申 请无薪休假,但迄今未承诺辞去该职务。 SHMET 网讯:美国参议院周一确认了美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事人选史蒂芬·米兰 (Stephen Miran),此时距美联储召开议息会议考虑是否降息仅剩一天。 市场普遍预期美联储将宣布自2024年12月以来首次降息,但降息幅度仍存悬念。美联储主席鲍威尔 至今顶住了总统特朗普的施压攻势,但他在上月暗示经济状况——包括关税政策引发的不确定性,可能 需要在9月会议上降息。 米兰本周不太可能成为降息决定的关键投票。在7月下旬的上次会议上,FOMC成员以9比2的投票 结果决定维持利率不变。但批评人士指出,米兰可能试图影响委员会成员。他们警告称,米兰同时担任 白宫高级顾问的身份,将损害央行相对于特朗普政府的独立性。 这一前景加剧了民主党人和部分经济学家的担忧:若白宫任命官员在为总统服务的同时担任美联储 的"独立"理事,美联储独立性将面临威胁。参议院银行委员会首席成员、马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽 莎白 ...
A股盘前市场要闻速递(2025-09-16)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-16 01:45
Group 1: National Market Development - Xi Jinping's article emphasizes the need to address issues in the national unified market, focusing on eliminating low-price competition, government procurement irregularities, and local investment attraction problems [1] - The article calls for promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade, improving regulatory frameworks, and correcting performance evaluation biases [1] Group 2: International Trade Relations - Chinese officials reached a consensus on resolving TikTok-related issues through cooperation, aiming to reduce investment barriers and enhance economic cooperation [2] - Mexico's president announced discussions on imposing tariffs up to 50% on Chinese goods, with China opposing unilateral and protectionist measures [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Emerging market ETFs saw a fifth consecutive week of inflows, with a total of $2.17 billion in the week ending September 12, 2023, and a year-to-date total of $19.8 billion [3] - China led the inflows with $653.9 million, while Argentina experienced the largest outflow of $6.99 million [3] Group 4: Corporate Developments - CATL's sodium-ion battery has received national standard certification, becoming the world's first certified sodium-ion battery [4] - Longpan Technology signed a procurement agreement with CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, with a total sales amount exceeding 6 billion yuan [4] - Tianyang Technology collaborates with Oracle and IBM to provide financial technology services [4] Group 5: Stock Market Activities - Shanghai Construction Engineering clarified that recent news regarding the Koka gold mine was based on previously disclosed information and does not impact current operations significantly [5] - Loongson Technology announced the completion of its first GPGPU chip, the 9A1000, with plans for delivery within the third quarter [6] - Purun Co. is planning to acquire controlling stakes in a high-performance 2D NAND storage chip company [7] Group 6: Shareholder Changes - China Pacific Insurance announced a transfer of state-owned shares without affecting its controlling shareholder status [8] - Fourhui Fushi reported a reduction in shareholding by its major shareholders, decreasing their combined stake from 65.74% to 64.80% [9] Group 7: New Projects and Investments - Junsheng Electronics secured a global automotive intelligence project with an estimated total order value of approximately 15 billion yuan, set to begin production in 2027 [10] - Xinda Zheng plans to acquire at least 51% of Jiaxin Liheng Facility Management, leading to a significant asset restructuring [10] - Dingtong Technology intends to invest up to $15 million to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Vietnam for developing and producing communication connectors and cooling products [11]
金十数据全球财经早餐 | 2025年9月16日
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-15 22:54
男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国拟将更多钢铁和铝制品衍生品纳入关税范围 美国拟扩大战略铀储备,以减少对俄依赖并提振核能前景 印度与美国将于周二在新德里举行贸易谈判 特朗普宣布:美军在国际水域对委内瑞拉毒贩进行了第二次打击 特朗普呼吁不应再强制企业发布季报 马斯克单日购入逾250万股特斯拉股票 市场盘点 周一,交易员们正在为本周美联储降息做准备,并寻找今年进一步降息的线索,美元指数日内持续走低,最终收跌0.28%,报97.34。基准的10年期美债收益 率收报4.0440%,2年期美债收益率收报3.5450%。 现货黄金首次站上3680美元,再创历史新高,最终收涨0.98%,收报3678.89美元/盎司;现货白银最终收涨1.21%,报42.67美元/盎司。 由于乌克兰加大对俄罗斯石油基础设施的打击力度,油价周一收高。WTI原油最终收涨1.09%,报63.27美元/桶;布伦特原油最终收涨0.91%,报67.48美元/ 桶。 美股道指收涨0.1%,标普500指数涨0.47%,纳指涨0.94%,后两者续创收盘新高。特斯 ...
特朗普“带飞”!一场46年未见的“淘金热”正在席卷全球
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-15 15:03
Group 1 - Investors like Kenneth Pack are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against perceived chaos from the Trump administration, with gold investments now comprising 17% of his portfolio [1] - Gold prices have surged by 39% this year, with expectations that annual price increases may exceed those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic or the 2007-09 recession [1] - The current rise in gold prices is not driven by a financial collapse but rather by uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy and its global role [1] Group 2 - Trump's attempts to reshape global trade have contributed to inflation and disrupted economic forecasts, with the dollar experiencing its weakest first half in over fifty years [2] - Geopolitical tensions, including the lack of progress in resolving conflicts in Ukraine and elsewhere, are causing market disruptions [2] - Demand for gold storage has surged, with IBV International Vaults planning to double its vault offerings to meet increased client demand [2] Group 3 - The recent gold price increase has been fueled by significant purchases of gold bars by central banks and Chinese investors, along with a surge in U.S. ETFs linked to physical gold [3] - Following indications from the Federal Reserve about potential interest rate cuts, gold prices rose again in August, attracting speculative investments [3] - Concerns about high inflation combined with slow growth, reminiscent of the conditions in 1979, are creating a favorable environment for gold [3] Group 4 - Confidence in U.S. growth and the dollar's role as a reserve currency may undermine the current gold price surge, but trade tensions and U.S. withdrawal from global affairs make this outlook fragile [4] - Despite record levels in the stock market, investors are seeking to hedge their bets by investing in non-dollar-denominated assets [4] - Consumer sentiment is declining, leading more Americans to sell their gold for its material value rather than craftsmanship [4]
真金白银的“信任票”!马斯克豪掷10亿美元,自掏腰包买入特斯拉
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-15 12:36
Group 1 - Tesla CEO Elon Musk purchased approximately $1 billion worth of Tesla stock, leading to a surge in the company's stock price during pre-market trading [1] - Musk bought 2.57 million shares at prices ranging from $372.37 to $396.54 per share through a revocable trust, marking a rare instance of a CEO using personal funds to buy company stock [1] - Despite the purchase, Musk's ownership stake in Tesla increased by less than 1% [1] Group 2 - The stock purchase coincided with discussions about a potential $1 trillion compensation plan for Musk, contingent on Tesla achieving ambitious market value and performance milestones [1] - Tesla's current market value is approximately $1.3 trillion, with a target to exceed $2 trillion [1] - Musk's confidence in Tesla's future is reflected in this purchase, despite challenges such as a 13% decline in global vehicle deliveries in the first half of the year [2]
俄罗斯“大秀肌肉”对峙北约,美官员突访白俄军演现场
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-15 12:17
Group 1 - Russia successfully tested the Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile in the Barents Sea and conducted joint military exercises with Belarus, named "Zapad-2025," aimed at enhancing military command and coordination capabilities in case of an attack [1] - The Tsirkon missile can strike targets within 1,000 kilometers and has a speed of 9 Mach (approximately 11,000 km/h), with a warhead weight of 300-400 kg [1] - NATO initiated "Eastern Sentry" operations following Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg warning that Russian actions are escalating regional tensions [1] Group 2 - The Su-34 fighter-bomber, equipped with 12 hardpoints and capable of carrying 8 tons of munitions, was used for ground attack tasks during the exercises, emphasizing its low-altitude penetration capabilities [2] - The U.S. Department of Defense officials were allowed to observe the Belarus military exercises, marking the first time NATO member countries were invited to such events [2] - Recent U.S. diplomatic actions towards Belarus, including the release of prisoners in exchange for the lifting of sanctions on the Belarusian airline Belavia, indicate a shift in U.S. policy towards the region [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus aim to strengthen military alliances, while the U.S. seeks to circumvent sanctions against Russia through Belarus [3] - The deployment of hypersonic weapons by Russia serves as a deterrent against NATO's conventional military advantages, while the U.S. may be looking to create conditions for negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - Recent personal diplomacy from the Trump administration towards Belarus contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's tougher stance, indicating potential shifts in U.S. strategy towards Russia [3]
关乎未来数月市场命运!美联储接下来还会降息多少次?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-15 10:52
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the first time in 2025, with a focus on the impact of a weak job market, persistent inflation, and increasing pressure from the White House [1][2] - The most recent dot plot indicated that Fed officials generally anticipate two rate cuts this year, with a consensus prediction of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [1][2] - There are differing opinions on the aggressiveness of future rate cuts, with some economists predicting multiple cuts in the coming months, while others suggest a more cautious approach [3][4] Group 2 - Wilmington Trust's chief economist predicts that the Fed will maintain a neutral stance on future rate cuts, but expects three cuts by the end of this year and three more in early next year, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 2.75% to 3% [4] - Concerns about the labor market's weakness and potential negative GDP growth have led to predictions of a 50% chance of recession and worsening unemployment [5] - Former Kansas City Fed President George emphasizes the need for the Fed to balance its dual mandate of employment and inflation, noting that recent job market data has been disappointing [6]
每日数字货币动态汇总(2025-09-15)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-15 10:44
Group 1 - The likelihood of the U.S. government establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the end of this year is high, as indicated by Galaxy Digital's research head Alex Thorn, who believes the market is underestimating this possibility [1] - Recent legislative proposals suggest that the U.S. Treasury is reviewing the feasibility and technical considerations of a strategic Bitcoin reserve [1] - Bitcoin is currently experiencing strong support between $110,000 and $114,000, with the next resistance level around $117,000 [1] Group 2 - The IRS has expanded its cryptocurrency monitoring from targeted investigations to near real-time blockchain tracking, having seized $3.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency in 2021, which accounted for 93% of total asset seizures that year [2] - A report indicates that 75% of cryptocurrency users identified through exchange data may have potential tax compliance issues [2] - The IRS is set to implement a new reporting system for cryptocurrency transactions starting in 2025 [2] Group 3 - Standard Chartered Bank is interested in engaging in cryptocurrency trading in Hong Kong, anticipating the development of related custody and financing services in the next one to two years [2] - Goldman Sachs highlights the increasing trend of blockchain integration in capital markets, with tokenized securities moving from concept to mainstream application [3] - Gemini's co-founder predicts Bitcoin could reach $1 million in ten years, viewing it as a modern version of gold [3] Group 4 - South Africa's Pizza Hut and KFC have begun accepting Bitcoin payments, facilitated by payment service provider ZAPPER integrating with the Lightning Network [5] - Circle's USDC has approximately 90% of its asset reserves managed by BlackRock, emphasizing the importance of network security and regulatory oversight for digital assets [9] - Amazon has posted a job opening for a "Crypto Ecosystem Lead" with a salary of $500,000, indicating a growing interest in the cryptocurrency sector [10] Group 5 - Analysts expect an increase in institutional investment in Bitcoin during Q4 of this year, as traditional finance prepares for the upcoming year [6] - Yala reported a recent attack on its protocol but confirmed that all user assets remained unaffected [6] - Gemini's strategy of reserving 30% of its IPO shares for retail investors may help mitigate the risks associated with initial price surges seen in recent cryptocurrency-related IPOs [7] Group 6 - Ethereum's co-founder Vitalik Buterin announced plans for a tenfold expansion of the Ethereum network next year while maintaining decentralization and security [8] - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers expressed skepticism about stablecoins significantly increasing demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to prevent bank runs and anonymous transactions [10]