Group 1 - In August 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of primary aluminum reached 30.14 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] - In August 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 6.98 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] Group 2 - The cumulative production of ten non-ferrous metals from January to August 2025 was 54.32 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that recent copper inventories have shown fluctuations, with the latest inventory level at 153,950 tons, marking a decline to a new low in over a month [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated that copper inventories increased by 14.91% to 94,054 tons, reaching a new high in two and a half months [1] - International copper inventories rose by 2,192 tons to 14,144 tons, while New York copper inventories continued to accumulate, reaching 310,487 tons, the highest level since mid-August 2003 [1] Group 2 - Generally, a continuous decline in domestic and international exchange inventories tends to support copper prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a five-month high, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and concerns over potential supply shortages [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On September 12, LME three-month copper rose by $16, or 0.16%, closing at $10,067.50 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,126, the highest since March 26 [1][2]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by approximately 15%, but have struggled to maintain levels above the psychological threshold of $10,000 [4]. - Concerns over supply are significant, particularly with the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remaining suspended due to ongoing rescue operations for trapped workers [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum increased by $16, or 0.6%, closing at $2,689.50 per ton [2][6]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $57, or 1.97%, closing at $2,957.00 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21, or 1.05%, closing at $2,017.50 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $241, or 1.59%, closing at $15,391.00 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month tin increased by $277, or 0.8%, closing at $34,975.00 per ton [2][10]. Group 3: Production Insights - Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer, saw a 2% year-on-year decline in copper production in July, dropping to 228,007 tons [5].

Group 1: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 225 tons, representing a 0.15% decline, with total inventory at 153,950 tons [1] - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with no variation in registered or canceled warrants [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 100 tons, a 0.20% drop, bringing total inventory to 50,525 tons [1] - Nickel inventory increased by 1,932 tons, a 0.87% rise, resulting in a total of 225,084 tons [1] - Aluminum alloy inventory remained stable at 1,500 tons, with no changes [1] Group 2: Registered and Canceled Warrants - For copper, registered warrants are at 133,225 tons, with a 0.08% decrease, and canceled warrants at 20,725 tons, down by 0.60% [2] - Aluminum registered warrants are at 375,025 tons, unchanged, with canceled warrants at 110,250 tons, also unchanged [2] - Zinc registered warrants decreased by 6.70% to 33,050 tons, while canceled warrants increased by 14.97% to 17,475 tons [2] - Nickel registered warrants are at 216,510 tons, with a slight increase of 0.89%, and canceled warrants at 8,574 tons, up by 0.28% [2] - Tin inventory saw a significant increase in registered warrants by 11.44% to 2,435 tons, while canceled warrants decreased by 7.50% to 185 tons [2] Group 3: Location-Specific Inventory Changes - Copper inventory at Changsha remains at 52,100 tons with no changes, while Kaohsiung shows a decrease of 150 tons to 46,825 tons [4] - Rotterdam's copper inventory decreased by 75 tons to 19,450 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 19.28% [4] - Aluminum inventory at Port Klang remains stable at 314,400 tons, with registered warrants at 206,820 tons [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 100 tons to 50,425 tons, with registered warrants at 32,975 tons [9] - Tin inventory at Yangshan increased by 235 tons to 2,620 tons, with registered warrants at 2,435 tons [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stabilizing while demand remains resilient, driven by the transition from off-peak to peak season and the continued high demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [1][2]. Supply Side Stability - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with seasonal production cuts diminishing due to improved power supply from renewable energy projects [1]. - Although there are expansion plans in overseas markets like Indonesia, challenges such as inadequate power infrastructure slow down the release of new capacity, resulting in limited overall supply growth [1]. Demand Resilience - The market is transitioning from a low-demand season to a peak season, with recovery in downstream processing rates and increasing orders in sectors like photovoltaics and automotive [2]. - Despite previous concerns about weakening export demand, aluminum product exports show strong resilience, with a shift from initial processing products to deep-processing products [2]. Low Inventory Support - The ongoing decline in alumina prices is unlikely to significantly drag down aluminum prices due to strong support from bauxite prices and expected reductions in bauxite export volumes as the rainy season approaches [3]. - Both domestic and overseas aluminum ingot inventories are at historically low levels, which, combined with the upcoming peak season, is expected to lead to further inventory depletion and support a bullish price outlook for aluminum [3].

Core Insights - LME copper prices surged to a five-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and increased confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On September 11, LME three-month copper rose by $38.5, or 0.38%, closing at $10,051.5 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,062, marking the highest level since March 26 [1][5]. - Nitesh Shah from WisdomTree noted that disruptions in mining production are greater than expected, and capital expenditures for copper mining are insufficient to meet rising metal demand [4]. - The Freeport-McMoRan copper mine in Grasberg, one of the largest globally, has paused operations due to an underground incident [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum increased by $48.5, or 1.85%, closing at $2,673.5 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $13.5, or 0.47%, closing at $2,900.0 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month lead increased by $9.5, or 0.48%, closing at $1,996.5 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $4, or 0.03%, closing at $15,150.0 per ton [2][10]. - LME three-month tin increased by $92, or 0.27%, closing at $34,698.0 per ton [2][11].

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that lead inventory increased to a near two-month high on August 19, but subsequently entered a downward trend, with last week's inventory declining rapidly and this week's inventory continuing to fall, reaching a five-month low of 237,000 tons [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of September 5, lead inventory continued to rise, increasing by 3.34% to 66,834 tons, marking a five-month high [1] - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges tends to support prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - The inventory data for LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange since August 2025 shows a significant decrease in LME inventory from 282,950 tons on August 19 to 237,000 tons by September 10, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory rose from 64,672 tons on August 29 to 66,834 tons on September 5 [5]

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 875 tons, totaling 154,175 tons, with a change of -0.56% [1][4] - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with no percentage change [1][6] - Zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons, totaling 50,625 tons, reflecting a change of -0.39% [1][10] - Nickel inventory increased by 2,058 tons, reaching 223,152 tons, with a change of +0.93% [1][14] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warehouse Receipts - Registered warehouse receipts for copper are at 133,325 tons, with a cancellation of 20,850 tons, resulting in a cancellation rate of 13.52% [2][4] - For aluminum, registered receipts are 375,025 tons, with 110,250 tons cancelled, maintaining a cancellation rate of 22.72% [2][6] - Zinc registered receipts stand at 35,425 tons, with 15,200 tons cancelled, leading to a cancellation rate of 30.02% [2][10] - Nickel registered receipts are at 214,602 tons, with 8,550 tons cancelled, resulting in a cancellation rate of 3.83% [2][14] Group 3: Specific Warehouse Inventory Changes - In Rotterdam, copper inventory decreased by 75 tons to 19,525 tons [4] - In Singapore, aluminum inventory remained at 1,325 tons with no changes [6] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 200 tons to 50,525 tons [10] - Tin inventory in the main warehouse decreased by 25 tons to 2,385 tons [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and recent U.S. inflation data [1][2] - The main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 271,260 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.66% increase, although market sentiment cooled during the day [1] - Supply constraints persist, particularly from Myanmar, where mining activities are hindered by seasonal weather and transportation restrictions, leading to low import levels [1] Group 2 - Domestic refined tin supply is significantly impacted by annual maintenance from leading companies, although overall supply remains relatively loose with high inventory levels [2] - There is potential for marginal recovery in consumption, but the slow resumption of mining in Myanmar limits any significant increase in supply [2] - The macroeconomic environment appears supportive for tin prices, providing strong support for prices on the downside [2]

9月11日国内市场电解铜现货库存14.90万吨，较8日降0.14万吨。周内进口铜虽仍有所到货入库，但日内 进口贴水货源吸引下游逢低采购，加之国产货源到货相对不多，部分仓库入库量有限，库存因此重新去 库。 沪铜小幅高开，日内持续偏强震荡，收盘上涨0.56%，期价重返80000关口。美联储降息预期继续强 化，海外矿端扰动增加，国内精铜社库并未继续累积，沪铜偏强运行。 隔夜公布的美国PPI意外低于预期，特朗普继续督促降息，目前美联储9月降息较为确定，市场继续等待 美国8月CPI表现。 最近国内铜精矿加工费徘徊在较低位置，暗示矿紧状态难以缓解，且海外矿端也传来一些扰动，印尼 Grasberg矿山发生事故，已暂停全部采矿作业，后续仍需关注对矿端的冲击。 对于沪铜走势，新湖期货表示，从近期公布的美国PMI等经济数据来看，美国经济距衰退仍有距离，预 防式降息有助于后续美国经济和制造业改善，从而提振铜价。从基本面来看，铜供需相对健康，铜矿供 应持续紧缺，矿端干扰事件频发；海外炼厂已开启减产，国内炼厂也有望从9月份开启减产；铜需求端 在电网投资高增长背景下韧性较强。基本面支撑叠加降息预期提振，铜价易涨难跌，可考虑逢低建仓。 （ ...