上海期货交易所发布关于做好市场风险控制工作的通知，称近期国际形势复杂多变，有色金属和贵金属 品种波动较大，请各有关单位采取相应措施，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，理性投资，共同维护市场 平稳运行。 （文华综合） 沪铜期货主力合约突破十万关口，涨约1.9%，受全球铜短缺预期等推动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity basis data as of December 25 shows various fluctuations in spot and futures prices across different commodities, indicating market trends and potential investment opportunities in the commodity sector [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Changes - Copper's spot price is 94,825, with a futures closing price of 96,210, resulting in a basis of -1,385, reflecting a decrease of 1.46% [1]. - Zinc shows a slight increase in basis at 230,90, with a futures price of 23,065, indicating a marginal change of 0.11% [1]. - Aluminum's spot price is 17,125, with a futures price of 17,315, leading to a basis of -190, down by 1.11% [1]. - Rubber has a spot price of 15,200 and a futures price of 15,730, resulting in a basis of -230, down by 3.49% [1]. - The price of rebar is 3,310, with a futures price of 3,127, showing a basis increase of 183, up by 5.53% [1]. Group 2: Monthly Average Prices - The monthly average price for plastic is 6,400, up by 1.56% from the previous month [2]. - The average price for PP (polypropylene) is 6,800, reflecting an increase of 7.85% [2]. - Ethanol's price decreased by 5.03%, with a current price of 3,632 [2]. - PVC (polyvinyl chloride) has seen a decline of 5.71%, with a price of 4,500 [2]. - Cotton prices have increased by 6.70%, reaching 15,279 [2]. Group 3: Market Insights - The basis for industrial silicon is 9,250, with a futures price of 8,832, indicating a basis increase of 415, up by 4.49% [2]. - The price of lithium carbonate is 115,850, down by 6.62% from the previous period [2]. - The price of polysilicon has decreased significantly by 21.52%, now at 50,000 [2]. - The average price for sugar is 5,322, showing a slight increase of 1.00% [4]. - The average price for urea is 1,730, reflecting a minor decrease of 0.58% [4].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Silver prices surged by 6.6%, reaching a new historical high, while platinum increased by over 9%, hitting the limit up during trading [2] - The decline in silver warehouse receipts over three consecutive days indicates strong demand, supporting the upward movement in silver prices [2] - The geopolitical uncertainty and continued loose monetary policies from major economies have led to increased investment in silver ETFs, further boosting silver prices [2] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices rose by over 3%, reaching a historical high, while alumina saw a significant increase of 5.6%, hitting the limit up during trading [4] - The global copper supply remains tight, raising concerns about potential impacts on the smelting sector, despite weak domestic demand [4] - The influx of 2.6 billion in capital into the non-ferrous metals sector, with 1.7 billion specifically targeting copper, indicates strong investor interest [6] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices increased significantly, with the main contract rising by over 8%, driven by market news [3] Group 4: Trading Volume and Market Activity - Overall trading activity in the futures market has increased, with silver maintaining the highest trading volume at 2.88 million contracts [11] - Alumina's trading volume surged to 1.97 million contracts, reflecting heightened market interest following recent price increases [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of copper prices, which rose by 3.6% to reach a new high, driven by a weak US dollar and a rebound in precious metals [1] - Domestic demand for copper remains weak, leading to an increase in spot discounts and a rise in social inventory, although the impact on copper prices is limited [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released an article emphasizing the need to optimize and enhance traditional industries, including improving project verification mechanisms to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction [1] Group 2 - Despite the accumulation of non-US inventories, overall inventory levels remain low, which has not significantly impacted copper prices [1] - Jinrui Futures indicates a generally positive macro outlook, with signs of US siphoning, and anticipates that copper prices may maintain a strong oscillation with an upward shift in focus, while cautioning about high price risks [1]

夜盘沪铜走强，早间延续强势，目前主力合约涨幅逼近3%。当前全球铜矿紧张局面延续，且市场担忧会进一步向冶炼端传导，叠加贵金属大涨带动，期铜 重心不断上移。高铜价对下游需求形成抑制，本周国内现货贴水不断扩大，社会库存出现明显增加，但非美地区库存仍然偏低，拖累暂时有限。 （文华综合） （截至12月25日9:09，沪铜的价格走势） ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices rising by 1% and hovering near record highs, influenced by precious metal trends and domestic demand weakness [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Shanghai copper opened lower but rebounded throughout the day, closing up 1% [1] - The current price of copper is affected by the volatility in precious metals and the weak domestic demand, leading to an expansion of the cash discount and a significant increase in social inventory [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. data shows resilience, indicating signs of stabilization, which has impacted the copper market [1] - The expectation of overseas liquidity and key economic data from China and the U.S. will be crucial for future price movements [1] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic cash discounts continue to widen, suggesting weak downstream demand [1] - Strong U.S. economic growth data enhances market confidence in metal demand, while high tariff expectations on U.S. copper lead to significant inventory mismatches [1] - Global electrification and AI development present a broad demand outlook for copper, with a weak U.S. dollar boosting the metal sector [1] - The global mining sector remains tight, with low inventories in non-U.S. regions and expectations of reduced domestic refined copper production, indicating a likely strong short-term price trend for copper [1]

Core Insights - Peru's copper production in October increased by 4.8% year-on-year, reaching 248,192 tons [1] - For the first ten months of 2025, Peru's copper production totaled 2,296,587 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [1] Group 1: October Metal Production Data - In October, the production figures for major metals in Peru were as follows: - Copper: 248,192 tons - Gold: 10,045,656 grams - Zinc: 134,029 tons - Silver: 348,160 kilograms - Lead: 26,955 tons - Tin: 3,094 tons [2] - Year-on-year changes for October production were: - Copper: +4.8% - Gold: +2.0% - Zinc: +30.9% - Silver: +13.0% - Lead: -3.0% - Tin: +31.7% [2] Group 2: Cumulative Production Data (January to October) - Cumulative production from January to October included: - Copper: 2,296,587 tons - Gold: 90,521,273 grams - Zinc: 1,251,905 tons - Silver: 3,126,328 kilograms - Lead: 260,146 tons - Tin: 28,517 tons [2] - Year-on-year changes for cumulative production were: - Copper: +3.0% - Gold: +0.3% - Zinc: +18.8% - Silver: +8.8% - Lead: +7.2% - Tin: +5.7% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Capstone Copper company faces potential labor strikes at its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile if new labor contract negotiations fail [1] Group 1: Labor Relations - The Mantoverde mine's workers' union, consisting of 645 members, rejected a contract proposal in mid-December [1] - The government has initiated a five-day preliminary mediation process, which can be extended for another five days if both parties agree [1] - The union stated that the company "has not presented any new proposals to advance negotiations" [1] Group 2: Company Ownership and Production - Capstone Copper holds a 70% stake in the Mantoverde copper mine, while Mitsubishi Minerals owns the remaining 30% [1] - The mine is expected to produce between 29,000 to 32,000 tons of cathode copper by 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have reached a historic high, driven by strong U.S. economic growth and a weakening dollar, with three-month copper prices closing at $12,162.5 per ton on December 24, 2023, marking a 0.85% increase [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Performance - LME three-month copper rose by $102, or 0.85%, closing at $12,162.5 per ton, with an intraday peak of $12,282 [1][2]. - Copper prices have increased by 2.4% this week and over 8% in December, positioning for the best monthly performance since April 2024, with an annual increase of 38% [3]. - The copper premium at Yangshan Port surged to $55 per ton, the highest level since September 24 [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3 2023, surpassing market expectations and marking the fastest quarterly growth in two years [3]. - Consumer spending in the U.S. showed strong growth, while both investment and imports declined [3]. Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $21.5, or 0.73%, closing at $2,960.5 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $3, or 0.1%, closing at $3,090.5 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month lead rose by $12, or 0.61%, closing at $1,994.5 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month tin increased by $23, or 0.05%, closing at $42,815 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month nickel rose for the sixth consecutive day, increasing by $47, or 0.3%, closing at $15,786 per ton, amid market speculation about reduced mining output in Indonesia by 2026 [4].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed schedule of trading hours for various exchanges during the holiday period from December 24 to December 26, 2025, highlighting early closures and market holidays for different commodities and indices [1]. Group 1: Trading Hours Overview - CME will have early closures for stock indices and interest rates on December 24, with no trading on December 25, and normal trading resuming on December 26 [1]. - NYMEX will also close early for crude oil and other energy products on December 24, with a complete market holiday on December 25, and normal trading on December 26 [1]. - CBOT will see early closures for agricultural products on December 24, a market holiday on December 25, and delayed opening on December 26 [1]. Group 2: Specific Commodities and Indices - ICE (U.S.) will have early closures for cotton, coffee, cocoa, and orange juice on December 24, with a market holiday on December 25, and normal trading on December 26 [1]. - CBOE will close early for the VIX index on December 24, with no trading on December 25, and normal trading on December 26 [1]. - HKEX will operate half-day trading on December 24, with a market holiday on December 25, and no trading on December 26 [1].