Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver and copper have replaced gold as the hot metals for trading heading into 2026, with both institutional and retail traders building positions for record price increases [1] - Silver prices have nearly doubled this year, with most gains occurring in the past two months due to soaring demand for silver ETFs and historic supply tightness in the London market [1][2] - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, saw nearly $1 billion in inflows last week, surpassing the largest gold fund, further supporting spot silver prices [1] Group 2: Volatility and Investor Behavior - Western investors, previously under-allocated in precious metals, are flocking to silver ETFs, indicating significant room for further inflows as allocations normalize [2] - The implied volatility of options for silver has reached its highest level since early 2021, reflecting increased retail trader interest [1][2] - Higher volatility in the silver market may require substantial price movements to sustain momentum, especially as the market enters uncharted territory [2] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - Demand for copper is expected to rise due to its financial attributes being less pronounced, but increasing needs from AI data centers and clean energy projects may lead to supply shortages in the coming years [4] - Recent price movements have seen copper futures rise above $11,600 per ton, with a structural bullish outlook due to supply constraints from major mine disruptions [4] - Global supply-demand balance for copper has tightened significantly, influenced by actual or potential tariffs affecting copper inflows to the U.S. [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - The current supply tightness in both precious metals and copper is partly attributed to arbitrage trading, with potential for a 10% to 15% pullback in the short term, but this is not expected to affect long-term trends [5]

Group 1 - In November, China's copper ore and concentrate imports reached 2.526 million tons, with a cumulative import of 27.614 million tons from January to November, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase [1] - In November, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 570,000 tons, with a cumulative export of 5.589 million tons from January to November, showing a decline of 9.2% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - In November, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 4.883 million tons from January to November, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% [1] - The import value of copper ore and concentrate in November was $52.13 billion, with a cumulative value of $53.449 billion from January to November, which is a 22.7% increase year-on-year [1] - The export value of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November was $14.23 billion, with a cumulative value of $138.85 billion from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [1]

以下为2025年11月以来三大交易所铜库存数据：（单位：吨） 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来三大交易所铜库存对比 | 日期 | COMEX | LME | SHFE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/5 | 436, 853 | 162, 550 | 88, 905 | | 2025/12/4 | 435, 831 | 162, 825 | | | 2025/12/3 | 434, 283 | 162, 150 | | | 2025/12/2 | 431, 938 | 161, 800 | | | 2025/12/1 | 429, 346 | 159, 425 | | | 2025/11/28 | 418, 727 | 159, 425 | 97, 930 | | 2025/11/27 | | 157, 175 | | | 2025/11/26 | 417,666 | 156, 500 | | | 2025/11/25 | 415, 880 | 156, 575 | | | 2025/11/24 | 4 ...

12月5日（周五），铝制品产商Constellium的首席执行官Jean-Marc Germain周五表示，欧盟应取消迫在 眉睫的碳边境税，该税可能会通过提高成本和使污染更严重的海外供应商受益，令欧盟铝行业陷入长期 衰退风险。 欧盟的碳边境调整机制（CBAM，即"碳边境税"）将从1月开始对少数进口大宗商品征税，旨在保护欧 洲生产商免受气候监管法规相对宽松产地更便宜的竞争对手的影响。但行业人士认为该机制存在严重缺 陷，并希望本月欧盟对该机制的最终调整能够解决他们的担忧。 "关于CBAM，首先要做的就是根除它，摆脱它。问题的核心是欧洲的竞争力。我们故意搬起石头砸自 己的脚。" 他称，铝升水上涨意味着铝产品成本增加，这意味着无论来源如何，所有铝供应都变得更为昂贵。他警 告称，对于Constellium在欧洲的工业客户来说意味着成本通胀走升。 他称，CBAM的漏洞意味着海外供应商可以通过运送废料来避免被征税，或者可以将低碳铝运往欧洲并 继续为其他地区供应高碳铝。"这对地球没有任何好处。" 他指出，CBAM的影响不会立竿见影，但最终可能会看到业者投资其他地方并关闭欧洲的产能，"这将 是一个逐渐衰退的过程。" Const ...

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices surged to record highs, driven by Citigroup's upward price forecast and a weakening dollar ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] Group 1: Copper Market Insights - On December 5, LME three-month copper closed at $11,620.50 per ton, up $170.50 or 1.49%, with an intraday peak of $11,705 [1][2] - Copper prices have increased approximately 3.9% this week and have risen over 30% year-to-date [3] - Citigroup forecasts copper prices to continue rising, with an average price of $13,000 in Q2 2025, up from a previous estimate of $12,000, and a bullish scenario predicting $15,000 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply Factors - Analysts suggest that the rise in copper prices is a gradual process, with funds beginning to favor copper due to anticipated shortages from supply constraints at major mines [3] - The arbitrage between Comex and LME is expected to lead to increased copper flows to the U.S., exacerbating supply tightness in the LME market [3] - Despite the upward trend, LME spot copper's premium over three-month contracts has decreased from approximately $88 per ton to $33, indicating a lack of urgent demand for the metal [3] Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month zinc rising 0.24% to $3,098 per ton, previously reaching a near one-year high of $3,125 [2][3] - LME spot zinc's premium over three-month contracts has narrowed but remains around $145 per ton [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup is bullish on copper prices, expecting them to reach $13,000 per ton in the next 6-12 months, indicating a potential increase of approximately 15% [1] Group 1: Copper and Aluminum Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts aluminum prices to reach $3,500 per ton by 2027, suggesting a potential increase of around 20% [1] - The company anticipates tin prices will hit $45,000 per ton next year, projecting a rise of 15% [1]

12月5日（周五），一名秘鲁高级外交官表示，印度企业集团阿达尼（Adani）和印度铝业公司 （Hindalco Industries）正在探索在秘鲁铜行业的投资，可能是通过合资企业，也可能是参股现有矿山。 "目前处于初始阶段，他们正在努力寻找机会，"他说道，这里他所指的是Adani和Hindalco。 秘鲁是全球第三大铜生产国，铜用于电力线路、建筑和制造业等行业。在与印度谈判一项更广泛的自由 贸易协定之际，该国正在吸引新的投资。 印度在截至2025年3月的财政年度里铜进口量增长了4%，至120万吨。政府表示，到2030年需求料攀升 至300万-330万吨，到2047年料达到890万-980万吨。 "Birla （Hindalco）和Adani正试图在秘鲁投资。我们愿意提供便利，"秘鲁驻印度大使Javier Paulinich在 新德里表示。 秘鲁在2024年生产了约270万吨铜，该行业吸引了49.6亿美元的外国投资。 印度是全球增长最快的主要经济体。根据印度政府7月份发布的一份政策文件，预计需求激增和潜在的 供应短缺，印度已敦促该国的矿业公司投资海外，以确保铜供应链的安全，并应对可能出现的供应中 断。 印度是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the changes in metal inventories at the London Metal Exchange (LME), highlighting fluctuations in stock levels for various metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin, which may indicate market trends and potential investment opportunities. Group 1: Copper Inventory - Copper inventory decreased by 275 tons to 162,550 tons, reflecting a 0.17% decline [1] - Registered warrants for copper increased by 0.20% to 98,700 tons, while cancellations decreased by 0.74% to 63,850 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 39.28% [2] - The inventory change across various locations shows a significant outflow, with 475 tons leaving the inventory [4] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,600 tons to 528,300 tons, a decline of 0.49% [1] - Registered warrants for aluminum stood at 485,400 tons, with cancellations at 42,900 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 8.12% [2] - The inventory at major locations like Port Klang and Rotterdam showed a decrease, indicating a tightening supply [5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory - Zinc inventory increased by 1,050 tons to 55,375 tons, marking a 1.93% rise [1] - Registered warrants for zinc rose to 50,300 tons, with no cancellations reported, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 9.16% [2] - The increase in inventory suggests a potential oversupply in the market [9] Group 4: Tin Inventory - Tin inventory decreased by 90 tons to 3,085 tons, a decline of 2.83% [1] - Registered warrants for tin were recorded at 2,790 tons, with cancellations at 562 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 9.56% [11] - The reduction in inventory may indicate a tightening market for tin [11]

"我们继续投资于这一对Anglo Asian具有战略重要性的合作关系，通过建立新的物流中心，这将显著提 高效率。" 7月，该公司宣布Demirli矿成功投产。根据其预测，该矿今年预计将交付4,000吨铜精矿，之后从2026年 起将增至15,000吨。 （文华综合） 为方便运输，该公司表示在Ganja附近建立了一个专门的物流中心用于储存和配送，靠近阿塞拜疆与格 鲁吉亚之间的主要高速公路。该地点将允许托克集团的卡车无需获得进入卡拉巴赫的许可即可接收精 矿，而卡拉巴赫的进入是受到限制的。 Anglo Asian首席执行官Reza Vaziri在新闻稿中表示："我们在Demirli矿场持续取得重大进展，该矿已按 时按预算投产，并完成了与托克集团的首批铜精矿销售。" 12月4日（周四），Anglo Asian矿业公司已开始从其新开发的Demirli矿场销售铜精矿，这是该公司与大 宗商品贸易集团托克（Trafigura）近期签署协议的一部分。 11月13日，这家在阿塞拜疆经营矿场的伦敦上市矿商与托克集团签署了合同，向托克集团销售其在卡拉 巴赫Demirli矿场生产的铜精矿，后者同意提前支付2,500万美元。 11月下半月 ...

与市场的乐观情绪相悖，高盛集团试图抑制对铜价破纪录涨势的热情，称铜价突破每吨1.1万美元的涨 势不太可能持续，因为全球供应依然充足。 在本周对客户的报告中，以Aurelia Waltham为首的高盛分析师们认为，近期铜价上涨的核心原因是"对 未来市场供应紧张的预期，而非当前基本面因素"，并补充称他们预计当前价格水平难以持续。 展望未来，高盛表示，预计至少到2029年以前不会出现全球性铜短缺，因为预计今年需求仍将比供应少 约50万吨。 "需求不佳，供应过剩——但价格却在上涨。这是一种特殊动态，"他表示，甚至预测非美国市场可 能"没有阴极铜。" **消除短缺担忧** 然而，高盛的分析师则持有不同的观点。虽然他们承认正在发生的供应短缺，导致明年上半年铜价预测 走高，但美国以外的"极低"库存可以通过提高地区溢价和收紧LME价差来避免。 "虽然2026年16万吨的小幅度过剩使得市场更趋于平衡，但这意味着我们预计全球铜市场不会很快进入 短缺状态，"他们写道，并补充说，价格明年将"局限于"每吨10,000-11,000美元区间。 铜价长期被看涨的预测最终都未能应验。尽管到2025年之前主要矿场的中断收紧了供应，但尽管清洁能 ...