过去几年，辜朝明是国内金融圈绕不过去的一个名字。在股市、楼市的各种鬼故事里， " 日本式的资产 负债表衰退 " 一度是最为撩拨的话题。 但天弘基金的姜晓丽并不跟从这种叙事的引力，她养成了一个新的习惯 —— 每天研读《人民日报》。 以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 在探索绝对收益方法论的最开始的起点上，天弘与几乎所有公募绝对收益团队一样，瞄准债券市场，做 好固收投资。可实际上，一旦遇到债券熊市，就算满仓配置货币，还是没有办法抵抗下跌。 通过报刊史料，在微观文本和宏观结构之间建立桥梁，是不少研究中国近现代史的历史学者所常见的方 法。但在投资领域，这条理解宏观的分析路径在大部分时间里称不上主流。 作为债券出身的基金经理，姜晓丽在此前大部分从业时间里也并不是一个会把投资胜率建立在政策分析 上的人。但身处 2022 年的波动中，她明确地感受到，现实世界里一些底层的框架和规律正在发生深刻 的变化： 政策对经济和市场的影响力正在日益增强，政府对特定产业的重视往往决定了市场的方向。 在这种脉络下，权威媒体的印刷物成为了她不能忽视的参考资料，政府对经济运行、产业方向的调整意 图，显露 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is undergoing a significant transition from being primarily an automotive manufacturer to focusing on artificial intelligence and software capabilities, but this shift is accompanied by challenges and a decline in traditional automotive sales [5][17][30]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla reported its worst quarterly results, with net profit plummeting by 71% and automotive revenue dropping by 20% year-over-year, leading to a state of substantial losses [3][5]. - The company's market value has seen a dramatic decrease, with $500 billion evaporating during a quarter of declining vehicle deliveries [3][17]. Group 2: Transition Challenges - The transition period for Tesla is marked by a stabilization in automotive business growth while preparing for AI-related ventures, which is causing significant "growing pains" [5][14]. - Despite ambitious plans for AI and autonomous driving, Tesla's actual business progress has lagged behind its high valuation, leading to a disconnect between market expectations and reality [14][17]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Strategy - The Cybertruck, despite high pre-order numbers exceeding 2 million, has faced production delays and disappointing sales, with only 6,406 units sold in the first quarter of 2023 [21][24]. - The anticipated Model 2/Q, a budget vehicle aimed at a price point of $25,000, has not yet materialized, raising concerns about Tesla's ability to maintain sales momentum as existing models show signs of fatigue [23][24]. Group 4: Market Position and Competition - Tesla's reliance on the Chinese market is increasing, with China being the only market showing positive growth for Tesla in 2024, although its market share has significantly declined from 15.8% in Q1 2021 to 5.6% in the same period this year [24][30]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly with the emergence of numerous affordable electric vehicle models from Chinese manufacturers, which poses a threat to Tesla's market position [24][30].

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of China's home appliance industry is shifting from a focus on speed and scale to a deeper transformation centered on industry chain reconstruction, value narrative upgrades, and future demand exploration. The new formula for sustainable value growth emphasizes insight into human nature and technological leadership [1]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The home appliance industry is moving away from the old script of cheap products for market access to a new era defined by high-end innovation and technology barriers [1]. - The transition from "technical OEM" to "standard-setting" represents a significant power shift in the industry, with companies like Fotile leading the way in establishing international standards [3][4]. - Fotile's journey from being a follower to a standard setter in the kitchen appliance sector illustrates the importance of innovation and the need for Chinese voices in global standards [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The home appliance market has shifted from a growth phase to a competition for existing market share, with two main battlegrounds: replacement wars based on experience upgrades and demand creation through scenario innovation [6]. - The evolution of high-end brands from merely meeting basic needs to creating immersive experiences reflects a significant shift in consumer expectations and market strategies [8]. Group 3: Fotile's Innovations - Fotile's new generation of high-end integrated refrigerators exemplifies the brand's commitment to creating a "true freshness" experience, utilizing advanced nitrogen preservation technology [10]. - The integration of AI technology into Fotile's kitchen ecosystem aims to enhance user experience through smart cooking and health management solutions [10]. - Fotile's approach to innovation is characterized by a deep understanding of local consumer needs, leading to significant market share in high-end segments [10]. Group 4: Chinese-style Innovation - The concept of "Chinese-style innovation" emphasizes continuous evolution and optimization based on real user needs, contrasting with Western innovation that often seeks groundbreaking discoveries [15]. - Fotile's development of integrated cooking centers addresses common pain points in Chinese kitchens, showcasing a practical response to consumer demands [13]. - This approach highlights the importance of understanding and solving everyday problems, leading to rapid iterations and effective applications in the market [15]. Conclusion - The transformation of the home appliance industry in China is marked by a shift from cost-driven success to innovation and experience-driven value creation, with Fotile serving as a prime example of this evolution [17][18].

当投资世界的注意力几乎被关税所垄断的时候，中国公募基金行业还需要面对更多内生的问题。 在吴清主席履职证监会的一年零三个月之后，讨论多时的《公募基金高质量发展行动方案》 （下称《方 案》） 终于出台。行业内许多从业者对《方案》有一个直击本质的简称： 公募改革 。 相比于2022年4月证监会发布的《关于加快推进公募基金行业高质量发展的意见》 （下称《意见》） 里的十六条表述，如今正式推出的《方案》，总计发布了25条举措。华创证券在一篇研报中总结为，" 中国公募基金行业成立近三十年来最深入的一次'体检'及最大范围的一次配套改革 [2]。" 以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 从时间点来看，改革并非没有压力。 外部——许多基金投资者，尤其是主动权益基金的持有人，在过去四年承受着不尽如人意的投资体验， 排山倒海的信任危机压在公募行业声誉之上；内部——积重难返的经营治理、人才建设、规模导向等问 题，在行业下行期里愈发外显。 才走了二十多年发展历程的中国公募基金，过去所面临的核心矛盾是行业体量太小。很大程度上，规模 为王的排名方式和评价体系，是一种高效的解决方式，也最终带来了今天中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry is undergoing significant changes, with companies like NetEase facing challenges in mobile game development and shifting focus back to PC and console games, indicating a potential market realignment. Group 1: Game Development Challenges - NetEase has shut down 12 mobile games in a year, including the short-lived "Tianqi Action," which lasted only 45 days, reflecting a negative birth rate of new games [1][3] - The company is experiencing a decline in user retention and game engagement, with "Egg Party" seeing a 40% year-on-year drop in user retention by July [5][6] - The rising costs of game development and user acquisition are making it increasingly difficult for new projects to break even, with the cost to acquire a single paying user reaching 500 yuan [6][7] Group 2: Strategic Shifts and Management Changes - The return of founder Ding Lei and the dismissal of several high-level executives signal a strategic overhaul within NetEase, reminiscent of past significant changes in the company's direction [3][4] - Ding Lei has emphasized a more rigorous approach to game projects, stating that all projects will be evaluated equally, with some being scaled up and others halted [3][4] Group 3: Performance of PC Games - Despite challenges in the mobile sector, NetEase's PC games have shown promising performance, with titles like "Yan Yun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel Showdown" achieving significant user engagement and revenue projections [12][13] - The PC gaming market is experiencing growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.88% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing the mobile gaming sector [12][20] Group 4: Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The gaming market is becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like Tencent and ByteDance adapting their strategies, including reducing reliance on user acquisition spending [10][20] - The trend of cross-platform games is rising, with the number of cross-platform titles increasing eightfold since 2021, indicating a shift in how games are developed and marketed [20][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing price war in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of the rapid growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and the resulting market dynamics. It highlights how the price war is a reflection of market concentration and the inevitable restructuring of the industry as it transitions from a fragmented to a more concentrated market structure [3][18][45]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - In 2024, there are 227 models with price reductions in the domestic market, which is 1.5 times that of 2023 and 2.3 times that of 2022 [3]. - The price war in the automotive sector is characterized as a necessary outcome of industrial development rather than merely a social issue of "involution" [3][5]. - The emergence of price wars in manufacturing is often linked to changes in market concentration, transitioning from a competitive landscape to an oligopoly [5][9]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The last significant price war in the memory chip sector occurred during the 2008 financial crisis, leading to a consolidation of major players [6][8]. - The smartphone market in China experienced a similar trajectory, with a vast number of models leading to intense price competition before consolidating into a few dominant brands [10][11]. - The automotive industry is undergoing a comparable transformation, with the rise of NEVs causing a disruption in the long-standing market order [18][26]. Group 3: Market Structure and Future Outlook - The market for NEVs is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the top ten companies holding approximately 78% of the market share, indicating a shift towards oligopoly [46]. - The article predicts that the automotive industry may reach a tipping point in 2-3 years, resulting in the elimination of over half of the existing car manufacturers [55]. - The ongoing price war is seen as a strategy by industry leaders to consolidate their positions and push out weaker competitors [44][50]. Group 4: Implications for Industry Players - The price war is expected to lead to a significant restructuring of the automotive industry, with new entrants and established players competing on a more level playing field due to technological advancements [26][28]. - The article emphasizes that the profitability of the automotive sector is under pressure, with an average profit margin of only 4.3% across the industry [41]. - The transition to NEVs is viewed as a critical opportunity for the Chinese automotive industry to leapfrog traditional competitors and reshape its market dynamics [58].

以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张伟栋 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 2022年11月，OpenAI 发布了全新对话式AI大模型ChatGPT，密切关注海外科技行业动态的王鑫晨知道AI的 时代来了，而此时距离ChatGPT用户破亿、并引爆人工智能投资热情还有一个多月时间。 作为一项革命性技术，人工智能的发展并非一帆风顺。在ChatGPT之前至少已经历三轮浪潮，而早在2012年 AlexNet在图像识别竞赛夺冠标志技术质变，到2016年基于深度学习的AlphaGO战胜李世石引燃公众的兴 趣，AI便开始从实验室走向了更广阔的天地。 也正是从十年前开始，嘉实基金投研团队就意识到AI时代的步步逼近。他们建立了AI产业链专题研究的大 课题，等待着产业奇点时刻的出现。 这种漫长而连贯的努力，在人类科学技术的进步中，和科技的投资里 总是必要，因为足够高的学习成本投入，才能在机会出现的一瞬间有果断出手的底气。 从2016年到2022年，耗时六年的AI产业跟踪似乎始终没有带来大规模的投资机会，嘉实科技研究产业"六 化"趋势里，继互联网化、电子化、信息化、云化、5G化，"全面AI化"已然在列。OpenAI在11月末发布的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of kale from a decorative plant to a "superfood" in the beverage industry, driven by marketing strategies and consumer health trends [3][4][5]. Group 1: Kale's Rise in Popularity - In 2025, kale transitioned from being a decorative plant to a sought-after superfood, praised for its nutritional benefits such as antioxidant properties and potential cancer-fighting abilities [3][4]. - The price of kale surged from 0.8 yuan per pound in 2024 to 3.5 yuan per pound in 2025, marking an increase of over 300% [4]. - The domestic market share of kale increased from 5% to 55% as tea brands began to source it for their products [4][5]. Group 2: Marketing Strategies - The marketing success of kale in the U.S. was largely due to strategic promotion by the American Kale Association, which utilized social media to enhance its visibility [12][14]. - Celebrities and cooking tutorials played a significant role in popularizing kale, transforming it from a lowly vegetable to a trendy food item among the middle class [15][17]. - In China, tea brands adopted similar marketing tactics, associating kale with health and fitness, particularly during the Paris Olympics [18][19]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Product Development - The tea industry has seen a trend towards health-conscious products, with brands emphasizing the nutritional benefits of kale to attract consumers concerned about weight gain [21][22]. - The introduction of kale-based products, such as the "Champion Slimming Bottle," generated significant sales, with over 1.6 million bottles sold within ten days [22]. - The trend of using niche ingredients like kale is not unique; other ingredients such as avocado and oil fruit have also gained popularity through similar marketing strategies [24][30]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The beverage industry is characterized by high competition and product homogeneity, leading brands to continuously seek out unique ingredients to differentiate themselves [30][31]. - Despite the initial success of niche ingredients, the industry often sees a rapid influx of similar products from competitors, diluting the uniqueness of the original offering [29][30]. - The article highlights that while niche ingredients can drive short-term sales, they may not provide sustainable differentiation in a crowded market [34][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of Laopu Gold into a luxury brand, highlighting its unique pricing strategy and market positioning, which has led to significant growth in revenue and valuation despite the challenges faced by the luxury goods market. Group 1: Company Overview - Laopu Gold sought to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2020 but faced scrutiny over its high gross margin of nearly 40%, which led to its decision to pursue a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange instead [3]. - In November 2023, Laopu Gold's founder initiated a Pre-IPO round, with the company's revenue from its Beijing SKP store surpassing 100 million yuan, achieving a store efficiency comparable to luxury brands [4]. - After its listing, Laopu Gold's market capitalization increased tenfold, challenging the traditional valuation perceptions in the Hong Kong market [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Positioning - The jewelry industry, particularly gold, is characterized by low profit margins, with major players like Lao Fengxiang and China Gold consistently reporting gross margins below 10% [6]. - Laopu Gold has managed to maintain a gross margin above 40% and a net margin that reached 17% last year, significantly outperforming its competitors [8]. - The company has adopted a luxury brand strategy, including high-end store locations and a unique customer loyalty program, which has contributed to its elevated market perception [11]. Group 3: Pricing Strategy - Laopu Gold has successfully implemented a pricing strategy that allows it to maintain high prices for its products, with average prices nearly doubling from 2017 to 2022 [16]. - The company has increased its prices multiple times in recent years, aligning its pricing strategy with the rising gold prices, which has contributed to its revenue growth [19]. - Despite the luxury market's downturn, Laopu Gold has expanded its store presence, indicating a strong market positioning and willingness to capitalize on opportunities during challenging times [22][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The founder of Laopu Gold has expressed ambitions for the company to achieve an average store efficiency exceeding 1 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [25]. - The luxury market's dynamics suggest that Laopu Gold's expansion may continue to thrive even as traditional luxury brands face challenges, as high-end malls may lower their selection criteria during downturns [23]. - The company's luxury positioning will need to withstand fluctuations in gold prices to validate its market strategy fully [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article contrasts the investment strategies and performances of Warren Buffett and Chinese investor Dan Bin, highlighting the differing outcomes of their approaches to technology stocks and market trends [3][4][5]. Group 1: Investment Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reached a historical high market value, with significant cash reserves of $347.7 billion due to a reduction in Apple holdings [3]. - Dan Bin's fund, Marathon No. 17, experienced a 22.5% loss this year, attributed to increased investments in U.S. tech stocks, contrary to Buffett's strategy [3][5]. - The article notes that Dan Bin has a history of fluctuating performance, achieving top results at times while facing criticism during downturns [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Dan Bin's investment philosophy is described as "Era Investment," focusing on large-cap companies that represent significant market trends [6][7]. - His early investments included leading companies in the financial and real estate sectors, which were pivotal during their respective market booms [7]. - The article emphasizes that Dan Bin's strategy involves betting on companies that embody the prevailing economic era, such as Kweichow Moutai and Tencent [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The article discusses the cyclical nature of investment performance, noting that Dan Bin has managed to recover from past losses by adapting to new market trends [10][19]. - It highlights the importance of managing liabilities effectively, especially for active equity managers like Dan Bin, who has maintained a stable investor base despite market fluctuations [12][19]. - Dan Bin's approach to public relations and marketing is also noted, as he frequently engages with investors through social media to maintain visibility and trust [15][16]. Group 4: Industry Perception - The article mentions that Dan Bin's reputation is mixed within the investment community, with some praising his transparency and others criticizing his investment decisions [4][12]. - Despite the criticisms, Dan Bin's ability to maintain a significant fund size over 20 years is recognized as a testament to his operational capabilities [19]. - The competitive landscape of the private equity sector is highlighted, with a growing preference for quantitative strategies over traditional discretionary management [19].