特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 发布日期： 2025-12-24 【1】三季度实际GDP年化季率初值+4.3%，预期+3.3%，前值+3.8%； 【2】三季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+3.5%，预期+2.7%，前值+2.5%； 【3】三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值+2.9%，预期+2.9%，前值+2.6%。 免责声明 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证 券研究所的官方订阅号。 从降息角度看，受政府停摆影响，四季度美国GDP增速或再次承压，但基数效应下，明年一季度美国经济 ...

Group 1: Consumer Products - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to November 2025 are -1%, -6%, and 34% respectively, with November showing a month-on-month increase due to the fading high base effect and strong seasonal demand for replenishment in overseas markets [4] - Exports of electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America from January to November 2025 have seen significant declines of -21%, -10%, and -14% respectively, with November figures showing a year-on-year drop of -40%, -17%, and -44% [4] - Lawn mower exports are primarily directed towards Europe, with 63% of exports in 2024 and 71% in January to November 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 20% in the same period [5] Group 2: Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines have the highest export market in Asia, accounting for 67% of total exports from January to November 2025, with major markets including Vietnam, India, and Indonesia [6] - Forklift exports are primarily to Europe (34%), Asia (30%), and Latin America (15%), with a notable decline in the European market share due to the situation in Russia [6][7] - Machine tool exports are mainly directed towards Asia, with a 50% share in January to November 2025, while exports to Russia have fluctuated significantly, dropping from 22% in 2023 to 10% in 2025 [7] - Mining machinery exports are led by Asia, Africa, and Europe, with cumulative export growth rates of +23%, +33%, and +19% respectively from January to November 2025 [7] - Emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America have shown strong growth, with forklift exports to these regions increasing by 36%, 16%, and 12% respectively [7]

Group 1 - The company experienced a decline in performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 1.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.41 million yuan, down 75.2% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross profit margin improved slightly to 15.11%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points year-on-year, while the return on equity (ROE) decreased to 0.73%, down 2.21 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Asset impairment losses were significant, totaling 80.63 million yuan in the first three quarters, compared to 20.70 million yuan in the same period last year, impacting the company's profitability [4] Group 2 - The global FPSO market is expected to maintain a prosperous outlook, with a projected market size of 13.06 billion USD in 2025, growing to 19.65 billion USD by 2030, representing a CAGR of 8.51% from 2025 to 2030 [5] - Brazil's national oil company plans to invest approximately 91.5 billion USD over the next five years, focusing on exploration and production, which will drive demand for FPSOs [5] - The company has built multiple FPSO products for the South American market, positioning itself to capture market opportunities and pursue high-quality orders [5] Group 3 - The company has successfully secured large contracts, enhancing its engineering and construction capabilities, including a recent contract with MODEC and others for FPSO projects valued between 190 to 240 million USD [6] - The company is recognized for its modular manufacturing of offshore oil and gas development equipment, leveraging advanced construction technology and efficient project management [6] - As overseas FPSO construction projects ramp up, the company's profitability is expected to recover [6]

点击注册小程序 本次交易中，中国神华拟发行A股股份及支付现金购买控股股东国家能源集团及其全资子公司西部能源持 有的相关资产并于A股募集配套资金，其中整体发行股份购买资产支付和现金支付比例为30%和70%。本 次交易共涉及12家标的公司，业务覆盖煤炭、坑口煤电、煤化工等多个领域，本次交易涉及的12家标的公 司全部股东权益评估价值为1437亿元，结合本次各标的公司拟交易的权益比例，并考虑评估基准日后国家 能源集团对化工公司增资49.27亿元事项，此次交易对价为1336亿元，其中现金支付对价为935亿元，通过 发行股份支付对价为401亿元，本次发行股份购买资产的发行价格为29.40元/股。截至2025年1-7月，标的 资产扣非后归母净利润为46亿元，归母净资产为874亿元，计算得出收购资产PE为17.0倍（年化后），收 购PB为1.5倍。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光 ...

Market Overview - In the week of December 15-19, 2025, gold prices increased while domestic equity market indices experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext index showing a significant decline [4] - The retail trade, non-bank financial, and beauty care sectors saw the highest gains, while the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Issuance - A total of 40 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 18.321 billion units. This includes 8 bond funds, 14 equity funds, 11 mixed funds, 3 FOF funds, and 4 money market funds [5] Fund Performance Tracking - The long-term thematic fund indices showed that financial and real estate theme funds performed well, while TMT theme funds experienced a net value decline. As of December 19, 2025, the net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: financial and real estate (2.17%), national defense and military industry (1.75%), cyclical (1.68%), consumption (0.92%), industry rotation (-0.32%), industry balance (-0.65%), new energy (-1.66%), pharmaceuticals (-1.85%), and TMT (-2.02%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - This week, stock ETFs saw significant inflows, with various broad-based ETFs receiving increased investments. The median return for stock ETFs was -0.33%, with a net inflow of 55.232 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -2.06% and a net inflow of 12.373 billion yuan [7][8] - Broad-based ETFs experienced a total inflow of 33.739 billion yuan, while TMT theme ETFs saw an inflow of 6.652 billion yuan [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - This week, 31 new green bonds were issued, totaling 18.530 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of green bonds in the domestic market reached 5.15 trillion yuan, with 4,427 bonds issued [9] - The domestic market currently has 211 ESG funds with a total scale of 149.677 billion yuan. The median net value changes for various ESG fund types were: active equity (-1.35%), passive equity index (-0.54%), and bond ESG funds (0.06%) [9]

在严格的化债纪律约束下，各地对传统基建的投资意愿不足，叠加地方政府专项债及新型政策性金融工具等资 金有所分流，导致基建投资增速下滑， 1—11月，我国基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应 业）累计同比下降1.1%，降幅较1-10月走扩1.0pct；细分领域来看，1-11月管道运输业投资累计同比增长 16.8%，增速较上月提升3.0pcts，水上运输业投资及铁路运输业投资1-11月累计同比增长8.9%及2.7%。 推动投资止跌回稳，着力扩大有效投资 中央经济工作会议中提出推动投资止跌回稳，中央预算内投资资金、地方政府专项债及新型政策性金融工具仍 将是主要的投资资金源；国家发展改革委固定资产投资司发表文章《着力扩大有效投资》，整体来看，"十五 五"期间我国投资仍将保持一定增量，但将更加注重投资效益，重视项目质量及项目落地，重大工程仍将是传 统基建领域的重点；在稳住传统领域投资基本盘的基础上，也将积极培育投资增长新动能，努力保持投资平稳 增长；在政府投资为主导的背景下，也将进一步促进民间投资发展，积极支持民营企业参与具有一定收益的铁 路、核电、水电等重点领域项目建设。在制度方面，将进一步完善投资审批管理 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound after an initial decline during the week of December 15-19, 2025, with major broad-based indices showing a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous week [4] - The net inflow of funds into stock ETFs was 55.353 billion yuan, with large-cap thematic ETFs being the primary focus for net inflows [4] - Following the Central Economic Work Conference in December, market trading sentiment improved, leading to a better funding environment that supports further market growth [4] - Short-term fundamental factors continued to outperform, indicating a transition from a funding-driven market to a fundamental-driven market, with a focus on "dividend + technology" as the main investment theme for the medium to long term [4] Index Performance - The performance of major indices varied, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03%, the SSE 50 increasing by 0.32%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.28%, the CSI 500 remained unchanged, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.26% [4] - As of December 19, 2025, the valuation percentiles for the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index were categorized as "moderate," while the Shanghai Composite Index and SSE 50 were classified as "dangerous" [4] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 index constituents decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a deterioration in the short-term Alpha environment, while the cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 constituents increased, suggesting an improvement in the short-term Alpha environment [5] - Time series volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 constituents increased compared to the previous week, indicating a better Alpha environment [5] Fund Flow Tracking - The top five stocks attracting the most institutional attention last week were Changan Automobile (214 institutions), Yipinhong (119), Boying Welding (115), Huatong Cable (101), and Zuoli Pharmaceutical (95) [6] - During the week of December 15-19, 2025, the net inflow of southbound funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect was 16.274 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect experiencing a net outflow of 420 million HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect seeing a net inflow of 16.694 billion HKD [6] - The median return for stock ETFs was -0.25% with a net inflow of 55.353 billion yuan, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of -0.86% with a net inflow of 0.902 billion yuan [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market environment for ABN products, highlighting that their premium over other asset-backed securities is not significant, but they still offer a yield advantage over some ordinary credit bonds [5] - ABN products are positioned as a potential investment direction to enhance returns, especially in a context where high-yield assets are scarce [5] - The valuation volatility of ABN products is generally lower than that of ordinary credit bonds, providing a degree of resilience against overall industry shocks, which can help optimize portfolio stability [5] Group 2 - Financial and real estate theme funds have shown superior performance, while TMT theme funds have experienced a net value decline [6] - There was a significant inflow of funds into stock ETFs, with a net inflow of 55.353 billion yuan, primarily directed towards large-cap broad-based ETFs and Hong Kong stock ETFs [6] - The central economic work conference has positively influenced market trading sentiment, leading to improved funding conditions and laying a foundation for further market upward movement [6] Group 3 - Infrastructure investment has declined, but certain sub-sectors continue to grow rapidly, with a focus on stabilizing investment and emphasizing project quality and implementation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [7] - Major engineering projects will remain a key focus within traditional infrastructure sectors [7] Group 4 - China Shenhua's acquisition of coal mining, coal power, coal chemical, and logistics services from the State Energy Group is valued at 133.6 billion yuan, with a PB/PE of 1.5/17.0 times [7] - Post-transaction, the company's coal production capacity is expected to increase by 57%, and its recoverable coal reserves will rise by 98%, enhancing profitability [7] - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong investment value [7]

《银行间债券市场企业资产证券化业务规则》重新明确了ABN的定义：ABN是指发起机构通过特定目的 载体发行的，由基础资产所产生的现金流作为偿付支持的证券化融资工具。ABN产品通过对流动性较弱的 资产进行"打包"，将其转化为可在市场自由交易的标准化证券，进而实现资产的流动性转化与价值盘活。 2、ABN发展与市场现状 点击注册小程序 初步探索阶段（2012年-2015年）：2012年8月，银行间市场交易商协会发布《银行间债券市场非金融企业 资产支持票据指引》，ABN产品被正式推出。该阶段尚未强制要求引入特定目的载体（SPV），导致ABN 产品的破产隔离功能有限，整体产品结构相对简单。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、ABN基础概念与产品特点 持有人结构：根据银行间市场交易商协 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年1-11月，百城宅地成交建面同比-15%，成交楼面均价同比+9% 2025年1-11月，百城成交住宅类用地建面为2.21亿平，累计同比-15.1%；成交楼面均价为6,295元/平方米， 累计同比+9.4%。分能级城市来看，1-11月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为1,041万平，累计同比-29.6%；成交建面778万平，累计同比-28.7%；成 交楼面均价为39,283元/平方米，累计同比+29.5%。 2025年1-11月，新增土储价值排名前三的房企为中海地产（962亿元）、华润置地（757亿元）、招商蛇口 （754亿元）。 2025年1-11月，新增土储面积排名前三的房企为中海地产（438万平）、保利发展（36 ...