Group 1: Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month-on-month, reaching 178.25 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with a net increase of 1.48 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [4] - By category, the custody of interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased, while interbank certificates of deposit saw a decrease [4] - The custody of interest rate bonds was 123.94 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.46 trillion yuan; credit bonds reached 19.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.27 trillion yuan; and financial bonds totaled 12.80 trillion yuan, up by 0.10 trillion yuan [4] Group 2: Bond Holder Structure and Changes - Among major institutions in the bond market, only securities companies and foreign institutions saw a decrease in bond custody, while other institutions reported increases [5] - Policy banks, commercial banks, and non-legal entity products increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while reducing interbank certificates of deposit [5] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with policy banks and commercial banks consistently adding to their holdings, while securities companies significantly reduced theirs [5] Group 3: Bond Market Leverage Observation - The balance of repurchase agreements decreased month-on-month, leading to a decline in the bond market leverage ratio [6] - As of the end of November 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase agreements was 11.05 trillion yuan, down by 360.125 billion yuan, with a leverage ratio of 106.61%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points month-on-month [6]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 26年广东电力宽松延续，现货市场有望提供业绩增量 回顾历史，2025年现货市场均价、月度长协价格长期低于年度长协均价。2025年1到11月的实时市场、日前市 场现货市场均价低于2025年的长协均价391.86元 / MWh；月度中长期交易综合价也低于当年年度长协均价水 平。2025年广东电力供需宽松；考虑到广东省省内26年仍有装机增量，我们预计2026年的电力供需状况将延续 2025年的宽松格局。广东大规模绿电入市，现货市场电价预计将加大振幅，1）电力运营商或将通过灵活策 略，通过现货、长协电价差进行盈利；2）绿电大规模入市更将凸显火电稳电网作用，其功能性溢价有望通过 现货市场显现。 事件： 广东省2026年度电力交易结果落地。 火电电量电价接近下浮20%水平，绿电综合电价高于机制电价 成交均价372.14厘/千瓦时，同比-5.03%，基本为市场参考价下浮20%水平。其中年度双边协商交易电价372.14 厘/千瓦时，同比-5.03%，成交电量占年度交易总成交量的99.87%。绿电双边协商交易电价372.21厘/千瓦时， 叠加环境溢价4.93厘/千瓦时，对应综合电价为377.14厘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The brain-computer interface (BCI) market is poised for rapid growth driven by policy and technological advancements, with a projected market size reaching $7.63 billion by 2029 from $2 billion in 2023, indicating a significant opportunity in this emerging sector [4]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - Major countries are launching initiatives to support BCI development, with the U.S. investing approximately $4.5 billion in its "Brain Initiative" and China planning to allocate hundreds of billions in funding for brain science research [4]. - The Chinese government has set clear targets for BCI technology breakthroughs by 2027 and the establishment of a complete industry ecosystem by 2030 [4]. Group 2: Clinical Applications and Growth - The medical sector is currently the most developed application area for BCI technology, focusing on neurorehabilitation, functional replacement, and disease treatment [5]. - The integration of BCI devices into healthcare is expected to be facilitated by insurance pricing policies, which will enhance the commercialization of these technologies [5]. - Both invasive and non-invasive BCI products are entering clinical trials or receiving market approval, with invasive technologies showing promise in restoring motor functions for paralyzed patients [5]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Development - Despite the lead of foreign companies, domestic firms are accelerating the localization of BCI technologies, particularly in flexible electrodes and real-time language decoding [6]. - The industry chain is evolving with upstream breakthroughs, midstream integration of devices and algorithms, and downstream applications expanding into pediatrics and psychiatry [6]. - Cities like Shanghai and Beijing are expected to develop into industrial clusters for BCI technology [6].

Group 1 - The global scale of green and low-carbon methanol projects is rapidly increasing under the "carbon neutrality" background, with a total planned capacity of 56.3 million tons by November 2025; GENA Solutions estimates that the actual global production capacity of green methanol could reach 6 to 13 million tons by 2030, with securing purchase agreements and financing during the construction phase being the core challenges for project implementation [4][5] - The gasification stage of biomass methanol technology is the core of process control, and its technical level and operational stability directly determine the feasibility and economics of the project; the three methanol production process routes each have their advantages and disadvantages, and balancing costs and carbon utilization rates based on raw material characteristics is a key test for project implementation [4] - Green methanol projects require a core closed loop of resources, technology, and customer composition from planning to mass production; stable and accessible biomass raw materials and low-cost renewable energy are essential for ensuring the sustainability and economy of raw material supply; technology is the core support, with both electrolysis and biomass methanol technologies having application prospects, while customer engagement is crucial for locking in future cash flows through long-term purchase agreements in the context of high green methanol costs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator sales in China continue to grow, indicating a recovery in the internal demand cycle, with significant increases in various types of construction machinery sales, particularly in the excavator segment [4][5][6]. Group 1: Excavator Sales and Market Trends - In November 2025, China's excavator sales (including exports) reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units, up 9.1% [4]. - From January to November 2025, total excavator sales were 212,162 units, reflecting a 16.7% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 108,187 units, increasing by 18.6% [4]. - The non-excavator construction machinery segment shows a notable recovery, with loader sales up 29.4%, grader sales up 24.7%, truck crane sales up 25.8%, crawler crane sales up 102.0%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 36.4% in November 2025 [4]. Group 2: Future Demand Drivers - The ongoing replacement cycle of construction machinery is expected to drive sales, with a projected compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [5]. - The export of used construction machinery to developing countries is reducing the domestic machinery inventory, further supporting new machine sales [5]. Group 3: Policy and Investment Impact - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a proactive fiscal policy in 2026, which is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment and subsequently boost demand for construction machinery [7]. - The upcoming large-scale Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an estimated total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is anticipated to significantly increase demand for construction machinery, with potential equipment needs reaching 120 to 180 billion yuan [10]. Group 4: Export Performance - In November 2025, excavator exports totaled 10,185 units, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase, while the total export value of construction machinery reached $5.23 billion, up 16.6% [8]. - From January to November 2025, excavator exports amounted to 103,975 units, a 14.9% increase, with total export value at $53.76 billion, reflecting a 12.4% growth [8]. Group 5: Electrification Trends - Electric loader sales in November 2025 reached 2,935 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 192.0%, with an electrification rate of 25.7%, up 14.1 percentage points [9]. - From January to November 2025, electric loader sales totaled 27,049 units, a 160.9% increase, with an electrification rate of 23.4%, up 12.9 percentage points [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expanding its pipeline and storage business capabilities through the acquisition of a 100% stake in the East China Pipeline Design Institute for a transaction price of 191 million yuan, enhancing its competitiveness in the sector [4][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanjing Engineering Company, signed a share transfer agreement with a subsidiary of Sinopec to acquire the East China Pipeline Design Institute [4]. - The East China Pipeline Design Institute, established in 1993, specializes in the storage and transportation of petroleum and chemical products, with a projected net profit of 10.48 million yuan for 2024 and a net asset value of 168 million yuan as of August 31, 2025 [5]. Group 2: Strategic Benefits - This acquisition will strengthen the company's integrated EPC service capabilities across the entire business chain, from design to procurement and construction [5]. - The transaction will enhance the company’s qualifications and execution capabilities in long-distance pipelines and storage facilities, facilitating entry into emerging markets such as hydrogen pipelines and aviation fuel pipelines [5]. - The acquisition is expected to provide significant leverage for the company to expand its engineering services in the Middle East, thereby enhancing its international market competitiveness [5]. Group 3: Market Growth Potential - The company has accelerated its domestic and international market expansion, achieving a new contract amount of 91.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [6]. - The domestic new contract amount reached 54.5 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year, while overseas contracts totaled 36.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 38.6% increase [6]. - As of September 2025, the company’s uncompleted contract amount stood at 215.5 billion yuan, marking a 24.8% year-on-year growth, indicating a robust pipeline for future revenue [6].

Core Viewpoint - The peak of a bull market is a result of multiple factors interacting over time, including policy and external environment factors, fundamental factors, and market trading factors [4]. Group 1: Warning Signals for Bull Market Peaks - Policy tightening and external risks are key warning signals for bull market peaks, with historical examples including internal policy tightening and external shocks like the subprime crisis from 2005-2007, and trade frictions from 2016-2018 [5]. - A decline in fundamentals is a significant warning signal for bull market peaks, characterized by a downturn in core profit metrics such as actual GDP growth, nominal GDP growth, and A-share net profit growth [5]. - Structural bull markets show that the decline in leading sectors' profit growth serves as a leading indicator for the overall market, reinforcing the signal of a bull market's end [5]. Group 2: Trading Signals for Bull Market Confirmation - Trading signals are crucial for confirming bull market peaks, with different signals being more applicable to comprehensive bull markets versus structural bull markets [6]. - High turnover rates and the number of stocks reaching new highs are more indicative of comprehensive bull markets, signaling overheating and exhaustion of upward momentum [6]. - Valuation-related signals, such as historical high price-to-earnings ratios and significant shareholder net reductions, serve as universal warning signals across various bull markets [7]. Group 3: Current Market Outlook - Currently, there are no clear warning signals indicating a peak in the bull market, suggesting that future performance in the A-share market remains promising [8]. - Internal policies are still actively supportive, and the overall stability of US-China relations is improving, with external risks gradually easing [8]. - The fundamentals of the A-share market are on an upward trend, with a low probability of continued decline, particularly in the context of accelerating AI industry development [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share bull market is not showing significant warning signals of a peak, and future performance remains promising [4][5] - The factors leading to the peak of a bull market can be categorized into three main types: policy and external environment factors, fundamental factors, and market trading factors [4] Group 2: Credit Bond Research - ABN products currently do not show significant premium compared to other asset-backed securities, but they still have a yield advantage over some ordinary credit bonds [6] - In a context of scarce high-yield assets, ABN products can serve as a direction for enhancing returns, with lower valuation volatility compared to ordinary credit bonds, providing stability in investment portfolios [6] Group 3: Insurance Sector Insights - In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets have become crucial for insurance companies to enhance investment returns, supported by regulatory policies that encourage equity market entry [7] - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the stock asset proportion of five listed insurance companies reached 9.3%, the highest in nearly a decade, with expectations for further increases in the third quarter [7] - Projected stock scale increments for the insurance industry from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1.7 trillion, 2.4 trillion, and 3.1 trillion under pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, respectively [7]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 据 SMM 价格数据，2025 年 12 月 23 日六氟磷酸锂散单价格 16.95 万元/吨，相比 12 月 1 日价格维持高位。 点评： 6F 价格维持高位震荡，供给增量有限且集中在 26 年下半年 据 SMM 价格数据，2025 年 12 月 23 日六氟磷酸锂散单价格 16.95 万元/吨，相比 12 月 1日价格维持高位。据 SMM 数据，2025 年 11 月，中国六氟磷酸锂产量环比上涨约 11%，同比上升约 33.62%；预计 12 月中国六氟 磷酸锂产量环比增加约 1.6%，同比增长约 40.3%。经过本轮高景气周期，多数小企业缺乏扩产信心和能力， 未来供给端的增量主要来源于头部企业，预计供给释放节奏也 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【宏观】关税扰动边际消退，美国经济增速回升——2025年三季度美国经济数据点评 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【高端制造】同比高基数效应消退及海外季节性补库需求旺盛带动十一月出口同比改善—— 高端制造 行业海 关总署出口月报（十八） 2025年11月，同比高基数效应消退及海外季节性补库需求旺盛带动十一月机械消费品和资本品出口同比改善。 从中期维度看，中美达成新的经贸协议，贸易不确定性下降，对美出口有望边际回暖，建议关注泉峰控股等； 我国对非洲、拉丁美洲等新兴地区的出口金额增长较快。 （黄帅斌/庄晓波/陈奇凡）2025-12-24 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【电新】六氟博弈长单涨价，看好锂电材料反弹 ——碳中和 ...