Group 1: Solar Industry - The current trading range for polysilicon is between 40,000 to 49,000 CNY/ton, with a significant increase in the price of N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers, averaging 1.05 CNY/piece, up 22.09% week-on-week [3] - Short-term policy support is strong, but the sustainability of this support is crucial for alleviating the operational pressures faced by many companies in the solar industry, which are currently experiencing cash flow issues [3] - The market is closely watching the "storage" plan for silicon materials, as the expected price of silicon will influence the valuation of the stored capacity and the willingness of financial participants [3] Group 2: Wind Energy - Wind energy is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, with significant earnings elasticity anticipated in the wind turbine assembly segment due to larger turbine sizes and reduced component costs [4] - The 136 document reshapes the logic of new energy installations, with expectations for a recovery in wind power development and power station sales due to favorable output curves [4] Group 3: Solid-State Batteries - The outlook for solid-state batteries remains positive despite recent weak performance due to prior high gains; focus should be on all-solid-state battery equipment and lithium sulfide segments [5] - Attention is also directed towards the progress of semi-solid batteries and electrolyte modifications, which can leverage solid-state battery processes for improved performance and faster implementation [5] Group 4: Energy Storage - The recent policy in Gansu regarding electrochemical large-scale storage capacity is expected to counterbalance the gradual elimination of capacity leasing fees, positively impacting independent storage IRR [5] - The current high demand for energy storage tenders in China is driven by consumption pressure and improved business models, with strong overseas storage market conditions also noted [5]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：铜价短期震荡 截至2025年7月18日，SHFE铜收盘价78410 元/吨，环比7月11日-0.03%；LME铜收盘价9795 美元/吨，环 比7月11日+1.36%。（1）宏观：美国6月CPI继续反弹，市场预计美联储7月不降息概率为94%，美元短期 或偏强。（2）供需：线缆开工率虽有回升但低于去年同期，7-9月国内空调排产环比下降，需求Q3偏弱； 美国铜套利行为或被提前终止，美国以外铜市场短期面临供应压力，铜价短期震荡。但矿端、废铜后续仍 维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求Q4回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，Q4铜价有望上行。 冶炼：TC现货价维持在-43美元/吨附近 1）产量：2025年6月SMM中国电解铜产量113.49 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of China's electrical equipment exports in June 2025, indicating mixed results across different categories, with some experiencing growth while others faced declines [3]. Inverter Exports - In June 2025, inverter export value reached $920 million, remaining flat year-on-year but increasing by 10% month-on-month [4]. - By region, exports to Europe were $340 million (down 2% YoY, up 2% MoM), Asia was $370 million (up 8% YoY, up 18% MoM), and Oceania was $30 million (up 19% YoY, up 80% MoM) [4]. Transformer Exports - For the first half of 2025, total transformer exports amounted to 26.96 billion yuan, a 37% increase YoY, with June exports at 5.41 billion yuan (up 48% YoY, up 21% MoM) [5]. - The breakdown for the first half shows large, medium, and small transformers exported 10.38 billion, 10.31 billion, and 6.27 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 44%, 55%, and 9% [5]. - Large and medium transformers (grid-level) totaled 20.68 billion yuan in exports for the first half, up 49% YoY, with June exports at 4.22 billion yuan (up 63% YoY, up 26% MoM) [5]. Electric Meter Exports - Total electric meter exports for the first half of 2025 were 5.4 billion yuan, a 3% increase YoY, but June exports fell to 910 million yuan (down 22% YoY, down 4% MoM) [6]. - By region, exports to Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, South America, and Oceania were 1.89 billion, 1.29 billion, 1.73 billion, 70 thousand, 340 million, and 130 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of -1%, -10%, 11%, -49%, 26%, and 95% [6]. High Voltage Switch Exports - Total high voltage switch exports for the first half of 2025 reached 18.16 billion yuan, a 32% increase YoY, with June exports at 3.08 billion yuan (up 31% YoY, up 10% MoM) [7]. - Exports by region included 10.95 billion to Asia, 2.15 billion to Africa, 1.94 billion to Europe, 410 million to North America, 2.08 billion to South America, and 630 million to Oceania, with growth rates of 29%, 38%, 36%, -1%, 72%, and 6% respectively [8]. Component and Battery Exports - In June 2025, the export value of components and batteries was $2.2 billion, down 24% YoY and down 9% MoM [9]. - By region, exports to Europe were $830 million (down 29% YoY, down 8% MoM), Asia was $950 million (down 17% YoY, down 13% MoM), and Africa was $160 million (up 9% YoY, up 6% MoM) [9].

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is about six times the investment of the Three Gorges Project [4][3] - The project will construct five cascade power stations, with an estimated installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts, based on the average cost of hydropower projects in 2023 [4][4] - The construction is expected to generate an annual engineering order volume of 33.6 to 44.8 billion yuan over a 15-20 year period, significantly boosting the construction sector [4][4] Group 2 - China Power Construction Corporation is a leading enterprise in water conservancy and hydropower construction, holding over 65% of the construction tasks for large and medium-sized hydropower stations in China [6][6] - The company is projected to secure approximately 21.8 to 29.1 billion yuan in engineering volume from the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream project, which would account for 1.7% to 2.3% of the company's new contract amount in 2024 [6][6] - In the first five months of 2025, the company signed 488 new hydropower projects with a contract amount of 65.387 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.66% [6][6]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 "反内卷"预期加强，板块有望延续上行行情 发布日期： 2025-07-20 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证 券研究所的官方订阅号。 本周港口煤价延续上涨，海外天然气价格回落 （1）本周（7.13-7.18）秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓价（5500大卡周度平均值）为637元/吨，环比+9元/吨 （+1.46%）；（2）陕西榆林动力混煤坑口价格（5800大卡）周度平均值为483元/吨，环比+8元/吨 （+1.68%）；（3）澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤FOB ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various sectors in the financial market, highlighting the strong performance of pharmaceutical-themed funds and the anticipated recovery in the steel sector due to policy changes aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity [3][5]. Group 1: Fund Market Insights - Equity funds continue to perform well, with mixed-asset funds rising by 3.06% [3] - Pharmaceutical-themed funds show significant advantages, while passive products in Hong Kong's pharmaceutical and communication sectors also perform well [3] - There is a noticeable trend of profit-taking in stock ETFs, with passive funds reducing exposure to broad-based ETFs while increasing investments in financial, real estate, and dividend-themed ETFs [3] Group 2: Steel Industry Analysis - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions," emphasizing the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [3] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, with price-to-book ratios likely to improve as a result [3] Group 3: Copper Market Overview - Non-commercial short positions in COMEX copper have reached their lowest level since April 2012, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4] - The U.S. June CPI continues to rebound, with a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in July, which may lead to a stronger dollar [4] Group 4: Coal Mining Sector Outlook - The government is implementing a new round of policies to stabilize growth in key industries, including coal mining, which is expected to maintain an upward trend [5] - The focus on eliminating low-price competition and enhancing product quality is anticipated to support the coal sector's performance [5] Group 5: Renewable Energy Equipment Exports - In June 2025, inverter exports amounted to $920 million, remaining flat year-on-year, while component and battery exports totaled $2.2 billion, down 24% year-on-year [6] - Transformer exports increased by 48% year-on-year to 5.41 billion yuan, indicating strong demand in this segment [6] Group 6: China Power Construction Company - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly benefit China Power Construction Company [6] - The company holds over 65% market share in domestic hydropower and is projected to secure annual contracts worth 21.8 to 29.1 billion yuan from this project [6]

Group 1: Market Strategy - The market has shifted from being policy-driven to being driven by fundamentals and liquidity since September last year, with expectations for a potential upward trend in the second half of 2025, possibly surpassing the peak of the second half of 2024 [3] - The A-share market continues to show a trend of oscillation upwards, with the ChiNext index leading the gains, indicating an increase in market risk appetite despite differing capital flows [4] - The market style is transitioning from reversal to momentum, which may support further upward movement of the index, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy catalysts such as "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" [4] Group 2: Fixed Income and Credit Bonds - A total of 386 credit bonds were issued from July 14 to July 18, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 4010.95 billion yuan, representing a week-on-week decrease of 14.72% [4] - Among the credit bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 173 issues totaling 1759.1 billion yuan, while local government bonds saw an increase of 16.25% with 178 issues totaling 1065.35 billion yuan [4] - Financial bonds experienced a significant decrease of 40.42%, with 35 issues totaling 1186.5 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - The Guangxi Petrochemical project has been fully completed, marking a significant step in the integrated refining and chemical transformation, with the ethylene unit achieving high-quality commissioning [6] - China National Petroleum Corporation is accelerating its transformation into high-end new materials, achieving a breakthrough in new material sales and establishing five new material bases to enhance production capacity [6] - In the agricultural sector, the average price of live pigs has decreased by 3.65% week-on-week to 14.27 yuan/kg, while the average price of 15 kg piglets has increased by 0.22% to 31.96 yuan/kg [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to show a trend of oscillation and upward movement, with the ChiNext Index leading the major broad-based indices [4] - As of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the Shanghai 50 by 0.28%, the CSI 300 by 1.09%, the CSI 500 by 1.20%, the CSI 1000 by 1.41%, the ChiNext Index by 3.17%, and the Northbound 50 Index decreased by 0.16% [5] Valuation Insights - As of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index is in the "danger" valuation percentile, while other major broad-based indices are in the "moderate" valuation percentile [6] - According to the CITIC industry classification, sectors such as building materials, light industry manufacturing, electric equipment and new energy, national defense and military industry, textile and apparel, pharmaceuticals, banking, computers, and comprehensive finance are in the "danger" valuation percentile [7] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - The market's risk appetite is increasing, but investors have not yet reached a consensus on further upward movement of the index [4] - Institutional research indicates that the top five stocks receiving the most attention this week are Xinyi Technology (183 institutions), Yingxi Network (171), Tuojing Technology (148), Zhongji Xuchuang (145), and Xinshi Da (140) [9] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 21.456 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect net inflow at HKD 11.658 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect at HKD 9.798 billion [10] ETF Performance - The median return for stock ETFs this week was 1.38%, with a net outflow of CNY 15.043 billion, while the median return for Hong Kong stock ETFs was 5.53%, with a net inflow of CNY 5.289 billion [10] - The median return for cross-border ETFs was 1.07%, with a net outflow of CNY 718 million, and for commodity ETFs, the median return was 0.39%, with a net outflow of CNY 1.235 billion [10] Fund Concentration - As of July 18, 2025, the degree of separation among fund clusters has slightly increased compared to the previous week, with excess returns for clustered stocks and funds showing a slight increase [11]

Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 401.095 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% week-on-week [2] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 173 issues with a scale of 175.91 billion yuan, down 2.02%, representing 43.86% of the total issuance [2] - City investment bonds had 178 issues with a scale of 106.535 billion yuan, an increase of 16.25%, making up 26.56% of the total [2] - Financial bonds totaled 35 issues with a scale of 118.65 billion yuan, down 40.42%, accounting for 29.58% of the total [2] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.17 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.39 years, city investment bonds 4.07 years, and financial bonds 2.21 years [2] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.07%, with industrial bonds at 1.93%, city investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.83% [2] Group 2: Secondary Market - Credit spreads varied by industry, with the largest increase in AAA-rated spreads in the pharmaceutical and biological sector, up 6.1 basis points, while the largest decrease was in the electronics sector, down 2.8 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated spreads, the steel industry saw the largest increase of 8 basis points, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector had the largest decrease of 5 basis points [5] - In the city investment bond sector, the largest increase in AAA-rated spreads was in Jilin, up 1.8 basis points, while Shanxi saw the largest decrease, down 3.4 basis points [5] - The trading volume for credit bonds ranked as follows: commercial bank bonds at 433.848 billion yuan (up 2.87%), company bonds at 356.402 billion yuan (down 1.49%), and medium-term notes at 324.001 billion yuan (down 5.68%) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements in the petrochemical industry in Guangxi, particularly the completion of the integrated refining and chemical project, which aims to transform the region's petrochemical landscape and meet market demands for high-end chemical materials [2]. Group 1: Project Completion and Impact - The Guangxi petrochemical integrated refining and chemical project has been completed with a total investment of 30.5 billion yuan, including the construction of a 1.2 million tons/year ethylene cracking unit and 14 other chemical facilities [2]. - The project marks a transition from a "fuel-type" refinery to a "chemical products and organic materials-type" refinery, filling the gap in high-end chemical new materials in the region [2]. Group 2: New Materials Development - Since 2021, the company has been advancing its new materials sector by establishing dedicated research institutes and elevating new materials to a core business alongside refining and basic chemicals [3]. - In 2024, the company achieved significant breakthroughs in new materials, including the development of metallocene polyethylene catalysts and nylon 66 synthesis [3]. Group 3: Production Growth - In 2024, the production of new chemical materials reached 2.045 million tons, a 49.3% increase from 1.37 million tons in the previous year, marking three consecutive years of substantial growth [4]. - The company has established itself as a leader in various product categories, including being the world's largest producer of paraffin and holding a 53% market share in low-sulfur petroleum coke in China [4]. Group 4: New Material Bases and Capacity Expansion - The company is developing five major new material bases, including projects in Dushanzi, Lanzhou, Jilin, Liaoyang, and Blue Ocean, with a focus on high-end chemical new materials [5]. - The Blue Ocean high-end polyolefin new materials project has a total investment of 10.1 billion yuan and will produce various products applicable in aerospace, healthcare, automotive, photovoltaic, and high-end packaging [5].