Core Viewpoint - NIO's financial performance shows signs of improvement with a narrowing loss and increasing revenue, indicating potential for profitability in the near future [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, NIO's total revenue increased by 16.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter to 21.79 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 13.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The Non-GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed by 37.3% year-on-year and 33.1% quarter-on-quarter to 2.76 billion yuan [4]. - The delivery volume in Q3 2025 rose by 40.8% year-on-year and 20.8% quarter-on-quarter to 87,000 vehicles, with automotive business revenue increasing by 15.0% year-on-year and 19.0% quarter-on-quarter to 19.2 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Cost Management and Profitability Outlook - NIO's Non-GAAP R&D expense ratio decreased by 6.6 percentage points year-on-year and 4.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 8.9%, while the Non-GAAP SG&A expense ratio fell by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 18.0% [5]. - The Non-GAAP loss per vehicle narrowed to 32,000 yuan, and free cash flow turned positive, with total cash on hand reaching 36.7 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025 [5]. - Management guidance for Q4 2025 indicates expected deliveries of 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles and a gross margin of 18%, suggesting a potential turnaround to profitability [5]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Expansion - New model orders are gradually being released, with the ES8 and L90 showing strong performance, indicating a potential recovery in fundamentals as sales of high-margin models increase [6]. - NIO plans to launch three new mid-to-large SUVs in 2026, aiming to cover various price segments and boost domestic sales [6]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion and has established a joint venture for chip supply, which may open new profit models [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year [4]. Group 1: Business Performance - The core OTA business achieved revenue of 4.609 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [5]. - Accommodation booking revenue reached 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [5]. - Transportation ticketing revenue was 2.209 billion yuan, a 9.0% increase year-on-year, supported by the growth in international ticket sales [5]. - Other business revenue surged to 0.821 billion yuan, marking a 34.9% increase, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [5]. - Vacation revenue decreased to 0.900 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing safety concerns regarding travel to Southeast Asia [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin reached 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage point [6]. - Profitability improvements were driven by revenue scale effects and the application of AI technologies, enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience [6]. - The number of annual paying users reached 253 million, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [6]. - The international and hotel management businesses are expected to contribute more profits in 2026, with the international business projected to break even [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that Q4 2025 core OTA revenue will maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, with other business revenue driven by hotel management continuing to grow [7]. - Accommodation revenue is expected to sustain double-digit growth, while transportation revenue is projected to grow in single digits, and vacation business may face continued pressure [7].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 11月25日，美国商务部发布2025年9月美国零售额数据： 【1】零售销售环比为+0.2%，预期为+0.4%，前值为+0.6%； 【2】核心零售销售（不含汽车和汽油）环比为+0.3%，预期为+0.3%，前值由+0.7%修正至+0.6%。 市场反应： 零售数据公布后，道琼斯指数、标普500指数与纳斯达克指数收涨，三大指数分别较前一交易日上涨 1.43%、0.91%和0.67%。10年期美债收益率下行3BP至4.01%，2年期美债收益率下行3BP至3.43%。 核心观点： 如何看待9月超预期回落的消费数据？在关税政策与政府停摆扰动下，居民消费意愿受到冲击。一方面，9 月特朗普对华威胁加征100%关税，贸易摩擦升级打击了居民消费意愿 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the structure and components of launch vehicles, emphasizing the importance of multi-stage rockets for meeting orbital insertion demands [4][5] - It highlights the trend towards reusable, low-cost, and environmentally friendly technologies in the aerospace industry, with a focus on liquid oxygen-methane engines as the next core technology [6][7] Group 1: Rocket Structure and Systems - Launch vehicles consist of multiple systems including structural, propulsion, guidance, control, and safety systems, typically featuring 2 to 4 stages [4] - Key performance indicators include payload capacity, orbital accuracy, reliability, and launch costs, with various domestic and international models catering to different orbital needs [4] Group 2: Propulsion Systems - The propulsion system is critical for cost and performance, with solid engines being simpler and having shorter launch cycles, while liquid engines offer higher thrust and better controllability [5] - Liquid engines are categorized into three types: liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen, liquid oxygen/kerosene, and liquid oxygen/methane, with the latter gaining traction for its cooling performance and cost-effectiveness [5][7] Group 3: Industry Trends - The industry is moving towards reusable technologies, significantly reducing launch costs, and transitioning to non-toxic propellants [6][7] - Liquid oxygen-methane engines are being rapidly developed both domestically and internationally, with notable advancements in various projects [7]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In September, U.S. consumer spending growth was below expectations, primarily due to the escalation of trade tensions with China, including a 100% tariff threat from Trump, which negatively impacted consumer sentiment [4] - The risk of a government shutdown at the end of September further restricted consumer spending capacity, as many government employees would face salary suspensions [4] - Despite the disappointing consumer data, it may not significantly influence hawkish officials regarding interest rate cuts, leaving uncertainty for potential cuts in December [4] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Commercial Aerospace - The demand for commercial space launches is on the rise, which is expected to sustain the growth of the launch vehicle industry [5] - Launch vehicles are multi-stage aerospace transport tools, with their performance determined by the collaboration of various systems, including structure, control, and propulsion [5] - Key technological advancements, such as reusability and liquid oxygen-methane engines, are driving improvements in cost and performance within the launch vehicle sector [5] Group 3: Company Performance - NIO - NIO reported a total revenue of 21.79 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7% [6] - The gross margin improved to 13.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 37.3% year-on-year and 33.1% quarter-on-quarter, amounting to 2.76 billion yuan [6] Group 4: Company Performance - Tongcheng Travel - Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [8] - The adjusted net profit reached 1.06 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [8] - The core OTA business generated revenue of 4.609 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, while the gross margin for the company reached 65.7%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [8]

Consumer Products - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to October 2025 are -0.4%, -6%, and 37% respectively, with October 2025 showing declines of -17%, -16%, and -15% year-on-year [4] - The decline in export growth is attributed to high base effects and calendar effects, with one less working day in October 2025 compared to October 2024, leading to adjusted year-on-year growth rates of -12%, -11%, and -11% when calculated on a daily average basis [4] Capital Goods - The export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, industrial sewing machines, and mining machinery in October are -13%, -4%, -10%, and 1% respectively, showing significant declines compared to September [5] - Cumulative growth rates from January to October 2025 for these categories are 0%, 13%, 13%, and 21%, with a decrease of 2-3 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [5] - The decline in export growth is also linked to high base effects and calendar effects, with adjusted daily average growth rates for October being -8%, 2%, -5%, and 6% [5]

Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is 52.41, with a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October 2025 is -2.0 percentage points, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is $4064 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The operating rates for cement and asphalt have dropped to the lowest level in five years [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 1.89%, cement price index down by 0.47%, rubber up by 0.34%, coke up by 3.29%, coking coal down by 0.95%, and iron ore up by 1.40% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization, cement, and asphalt operating rates have decreased by 0.22 percentage points, 10.80 percentage points, and 8.8 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remain at low profit levels, with flat glass operating rate at 74.86% [6] - The weekly price change for titanium dioxide and glass is 0.00% [6] - The profit margins for flat glass and titanium dioxide are -58 yuan/ton and -1526 yuan/ton respectively [6] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.25%, copper down by 1.35%, and aluminum down by 2.42% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 71.07%, a decrease of 2.61 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 329,000 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.46% [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,500 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of 1357.4 yuan/ton, down by 19.55% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of 4161 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down by 9.96% [8] Price Comparison - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.03 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 50 yuan/ton [10] - The price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel in Shanghai is 540 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is 1122.79 points this week, an increase of 2.63% [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the US is 76.20%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index has decreased by 3.77%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being engineering machinery at -1.65% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 40.01% and 85.11% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 公司于 2025 年 11 月 24 日发布截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日 25Q3 业绩。 业绩： 1）营业收入大幅增长： 25Q3 公司收入 1.71 亿元，同比增长 144%。各业务板块收入方面，产品营收 0.79 亿元，同比大幅增长 429%，产品收入增长主要系 robotaxi 和 robobus 销量增长；服务收入 0.92 亿 元，同比增长67%，服务收入增长主要系智能数据和辅助驾驶运营支持服务收入增长。Robotaxi 相关业务 营收 3,530 万元，同比增长 761% 。2）盈利能力提升： FY25Q3 公司实现毛利润 0.56 亿元，同比大幅增 长 1133.55%，毛利率同比增长 26.4 ...

Market Overview - The domestic equity market index experienced a downward trend during the week of November 17-21, 2025, with all Shenwan industry sectors collectively declining. The banking, media, and food and beverage sectors showed relative resilience, while the power equipment, comprehensive, and basic chemical industries faced the largest declines [4] Fund Issuance - A total of 41 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 36.035 billion units. This includes 7 bond funds, 3 FOF funds, 12 mixed funds, 16 stock funds, 1 REIT, 1 international (QDII) fund, and 1 money market fund [5] Fund Performance Tracking - The performance of long-term thematic funds was poor this week, with the financial real estate thematic fund showing relative resilience. As of November 21, 2025, the net value declines for various thematic funds were as follows: financial real estate -3.02%, national defense and military industry -3.19%, consumption -3.31%, TMT -4.47%, industry balance -4.92%, industry rotation -4.93%, cyclical -5.28%, pharmaceuticals -5.98%, and new energy -8.82% [6] ETF Market Tracking - Different investment range ETFs saw inflows this week, with significant passive fund accumulation in broad-based thematic ETFs, particularly in TMT. The median return for stock ETFs was -4.61%, with a net inflow of 49.533 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -6.25% and a net inflow of 17.821 billion yuan. Cross-border ETFs had a median return of -3.42% with a net inflow of 2.329 billion yuan, while commodity ETFs had a median return of -2.50% and a net inflow of 6.495 billion yuan. Notably, the small-cap thematic ETFs saw a significant net inflow of 11.983 billion yuan [7] Fund Position Monitoring - The estimated position of actively managed equity funds increased by 0.14 percentage points compared to the previous week. In terms of industry allocation, there was an increase in funding for household appliances, non-ferrous metals, and banking, while basic chemicals, automobiles, and computers saw a reduction in funding [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - This week, 24 new green bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 24.369 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.04 trillion yuan and a total of 4,323 bonds issued as of November 21, 2025. In terms of fund performance, the median net value changes for actively managed equity, passive stock index, and bond ESG funds were -5.71%, -4.76%, and +0.03%, respectively. High-quality governance, ecology, and ESG-themed funds showed significantly better performance. As of November 21, 2025, there were 213 ESG funds in the domestic market, with a total scale of 145.742 billion yuan [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic equity market indices experienced fluctuations and a downward trend, with various industry-themed funds performing poorly, while financial and real estate-themed funds showed relative resilience [4] - Passive funds significantly increased their positions in various broad-based ETFs, with notable inflows into TMT-themed ETFs [4] Group 2: Steel Industry Insights - The operating rates for cement and asphalt have dropped to the lowest levels for the same period in five years, indicating potential challenges in the construction sector [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's recent policies aim to promote the orderly exit of outdated steel production capacity, suggesting a potential recovery in steel sector profitability to historical average levels [5] Group 3: Machinery Export Data - In October 2025, the export growth rates for various machinery products, including electric tools and forklifts, showed significant declines, primarily due to high base effects and calendar impacts [6] - The export amounts for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers decreased by 17%, 16%, and 15% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting a broader trend of declining export performance in the machinery sector [6] Group 4: Company Performance - Company revenue for Q3 2025 reached 171 million yuan, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 144%, driven by significant growth in robotaxi and robobus sales [7] - Product revenue surged by 429% to 79 million yuan, while service revenue increased by 67% to 92 million yuan, highlighting strong demand for intelligent data and driving support services [7] - Revenue from robotaxi-related businesses reached 35.3 million yuan, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 761% [7]