Core Viewpoints - The report utilizes a volume-price analysis framework to assess China's exports to the U.S. during the first round of trade friction and the impact of fentanyl tariffs, aiming to identify products with greater export resilience [3] - From a long-term perspective, technological barriers determine resilience, with high value-added products showing significant advantages. Industries with technological barriers and product differentiation exhibit stronger pricing power during long-term tariff impacts, creating a virtuous cycle of "volume and price increase + increased dependency." Recommended sectors include pharmaceuticals, electrical machinery and equipment, organic compounds, and aluminum products [3] - In the short term, the decline in exports is widespread, with more resilience reflected through re-export trade. Products with high import dependency from China show weak overseas substitution. The fentanyl tariff has caused a sharp decline in China's short-term exports to the U.S., with no significant differences among products of different natures. Products demonstrating export resilience through re-export trade include toys, furniture, footwear, glass products, miscellaneous non-ferrous metal products, and electrical machinery and equipment. Additionally, products with high import dependency from the U.S. show low overseas substitution rates, making it difficult for other countries to fill the demand gap. Attention should be paid to the replenishment demand from U.S. importers in high import dependency products, which may lead to export rebounds [3] Industry Analysis - Industries meeting all three criteria of long-term perspective, re-export trade, and high import dependency include electrical machinery and equipment. Industries meeting two criteria include organic compounds, miscellaneous products, and footwear. Industries meeting one criterion include pharmaceuticals, aluminum and its products, toys, furniture, glass products, miscellaneous non-ferrous metal products, knitted garments, and wooden products [3]

Market Overview - The convertible bond market experienced narrow fluctuations during the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index showing a change of 0% (previous week +1.1%) and the China All Share Index declining by 0.4% [3] - Year-to-date, the China Convertible Bond Index has increased by 4.7%, while the China All Share Index has risen by 1.3%, indicating that the convertible bond market has outperformed the equity market [3] Performance by Rating and Size - High-rated bonds (AA+ and above) saw a change of -0.11%, medium-rated bonds (AA) changed by -0.44%, and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) changed by -0.38%, with high-rated bonds experiencing the least decline [4] - In terms of bond size, large-scale convertible bonds (balance over 5 billion) increased by +0.43%, while medium-scale (5 to 50 billion) and small-scale (under 5 billion) bonds decreased by -0.39% and -0.34%, respectively, with large-scale bonds showing the highest increase [4] Price and Premium Analysis - The average price of convertible bonds is 121.63 yuan, with an average parity of 93.35 yuan and an average conversion premium rate of 30.0% as of June 13, 2025 [5][6] - The average conversion premium rate for medium parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 to 110 yuan) is 24.3%, which is higher than the median conversion premium rate of 19.8% since 2018 [6] Future Outlook - The convertible bond market's future performance will be influenced by economic negotiations, fundamental factors, and macro policies [7] - Current focus areas include convertible bonds linked to companies that can boost domestic demand and those involved in domestic substitution, particularly those with strong underlying stocks [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various market factors, indicating a mixed performance across different stock pools with specific factors yielding positive or negative returns [2][3][5]. Group 2 - In the overall market, the profitability factor achieved a positive return of 0.54%, while the residual volatility and beta factors gained 0.28% and 0.23% respectively, indicating a small-cap style market performance [2]. - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors included the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (2.85%) and the TTM inverse P/E ratio (2.32%), while the worst performers were the 5-minute return skew (-1.53%) and gross profit margin TTM (-1.03%) [3]. - The CSI 500 stock pool saw the ROIC enhancement factor perform well with a return of 1.46%, while the worst performers included the 5-day reversal (-1.25%) [3]. - The liquidity 1500 stock pool had the TTM inverse P/E ratio as the best performer (1.30%), while early morning return factors showed negative performance [3]. Group 3 - The fundamental factors showed varied performance across industries, with net asset growth rate and net profit growth rate factors performing consistently well in the telecommunications, beauty care, and commercial trade sectors [5]. - Valuation factors, particularly the earnings yield (EP) factor, performed well in the telecommunications, oil and petrochemical, and steel industries [5]. - The small-cap style was notably significant in the beauty care, media, and computer industries this week [5]. Group 4 - The PB-ROE-50 combination achieved positive excess returns across stock pools, with the CSI 500 pool gaining 1.34% and the CSI 800 pool gaining 1.37% [6]. - The public fund research selection strategy and private fund research tracking strategy both recorded negative excess returns relative to the CSI 800, with losses of -1.58% and -1.45% respectively [7]. - The block trading combination underperformed relative to the CSI All Index, with an excess return of -0.62% [8]. - The targeted issuance combination achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Index, with a gain of 1.17% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities is experiencing a mixed performance, with new home sales showing a slight decline in transaction volume but an increase in average prices, while the secondary housing market is seeing significant growth in transaction volume [2][4][6]. New Housing Market - In May 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in 30 core cities was 11.48 million square meters, down 8.5% year-on-year, but up 5.7% month-on-month [2]. - From January to May 2025, the total transaction area for new residential properties in these cities was 55.21 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [2]. - The average price of new residential properties in May 2025 was 25,885 yuan per square meter, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year [2]. - The average price for new homes in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen varied significantly, with Beijing at 59,645 yuan per square meter, up 17.8% year-on-year, while Guangzhou saw a decline of 9.1% [3]. Secondary Housing Market - In May 2025, the transaction area of second-hand residential properties in 15 core cities was 13.57 million square meters, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year [4]. - From January to May 2025, the total transaction area for second-hand residential properties was 66.70 million square meters, up 17.3% year-on-year [5]. - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 10 core cities was 24,426 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [5]. - Key cities showed varied average prices for second-hand homes, with Beijing at 28,896 yuan per square meter, up 5.6% year-on-year, while Guangzhou experienced a decline of 7.5% [6]. Investment Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2025 due to the implementation of previous real estate policies and increased local government autonomy in market regulation, leading to further regional and city-level differentiation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for FY2025, indicating challenges in the market while also showing improvements in gross and operating profit margins due to strategic changes and product offerings [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 89.656 billion, a decrease of 17.5% year-on-year [2]. - The profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.916 billion, reflecting a 9.0% decrease year-on-year when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for FY2025 was 29.5%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, primarily driven by rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of fixed-price products [3]. - The operating profit margin rose to 16.4%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, despite an increase in sales and administrative expense ratio to 13.9% [3]. Group 2: Store Operations and Strategic Initiatives - As of March 31, 2025, the total number of stores decreased by 905 to 6,644, with a net reduction of 896 stores in mainland China [4]. - The company's transformation strategy showed early signs of success, with differentiated product lines like the "Chow Tai Fook Fortune" and "Chow Tai Fook Palace" series achieving retail values of approximately HKD 4 billion each [4]. - The company expanded its customer base through collaborations with popular IPs such as "Black Myth: Wukong" and "Chiikawa" [4]. - New concept stores were opened in major cities like Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Xi'an, and Shanghai, enhancing the consumer experience while closing underperforming locations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of credit growth in China, highlighting that while there is a slowdown in year-on-year growth, it does not indicate a decrease in credit support for the real economy. Instead, it suggests that measures like local government debt replacement are beneficial for economic growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, an increase of 340 billion from April but a decrease of 330 billion compared to the same month last year [3]. - The replacement of local government hidden debts is a significant factor affecting credit growth, allowing local governments to alleviate financial burdens [3]. Economic Indicators - Weakening effective demand is reflected in recent economic data, with manufacturing PMI for April and May at 49.0% and 49.5%, respectively, lower than the first quarter average of 49.9% [3]. - The PPI year-on-year growth rates for April and May were -2.7% and -3.3%, respectively, also lower than the first quarter average of -2.3% [3]. Historical Context and Policy Response - Historical experiences show that proactive policy responses can maintain or even strengthen credit support for the economy despite external shocks, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic years [4]. - In 2022, a new policy tool was introduced to address capital shortages for major projects, leading to a significant increase in effective credit demand [4]. New Financial Tools - A new type of policy financial tool was proposed in a recent political meeting, which could theoretically leverage 20 trillion in credit demand for every 500 billion issued [5]. - This tool is seen as a key measure to promote credit issuance, suggesting a positive outlook for future credit growth [5]. Credit Growth Perspective - The article questions whether more credit growth is always beneficial, noting that excessive competition among financial institutions can lead to unsustainable practices [5]. - A moderate decline in credit growth is considered normal amid economic restructuring and increased direct financing [6]. Target Growth Rates - Considering various factors, a credit growth rate of around 7.5% for major state-owned banks is viewed as satisfactory in light of the GDP and CPI growth targets of approximately 5% and 2%, respectively [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong demand for AI chips and the growth of the North American AI sector, while also noting the weak recovery in non-AI chip applications [3][4]. Group 1: AI Sector Insights - AI inference demand is experiencing explosive growth, with Nvidia reporting a significant increase in token processing by Microsoft, which handled over 100 trillion tokens in FY25Q3, a fivefold year-on-year increase [3]. - Sovereign AI demand is emerging, exemplified by a $15 billion collaboration agreement between Nvidia, AMD, and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund [3]. - Nvidia's supply capabilities have improved significantly, with major customers deploying nearly 1,000 GB200 NVL72 racks weekly, and production of the GB300 expected to ramp up by the end of FY26Q2 [3]. - ASIC deployments are projected to increase significantly in 2026, with Broadcom indicating that three major clients will deploy 1 million AI accelerator chip clusters by 2027 [3]. Group 2: Non-AI Sector Insights - Global wafer fab utilization rates are low, projected between 60% and 70% in 2024, below the healthy range of 80% to 90% [4]. - IDC has revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast from 2.6% to 0.6% due to economic uncertainties and reduced consumer spending [4]. - PC shipments are underperforming, with GPU shipments down 1.6% year-on-year and CPU shipments down 0.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [4]. Group 3: Storage Market Trends - The storage market has begun to recover since late March 2025, with price increases for several DDR3 and DDR4 products due to production halts by major manufacturers [5]. - Downstream demand is showing signs of substantial growth as inventory digestion is nearly complete, with expectations of price increases for DRAM and NAND Flash products in Q3 2025 [5].

【固收】促信贷还有"撒手锏"——2025年6月13日利率债观察 众所周知，地方政府隐性债务置换是用成本低、期限长的地方政府债券来置换成本高、剩余期限短的债 务，这有利于纾解债务链条，让地方政府卸下包袱，轻装上阵。所以，在地方政府隐性债务置换阶段，虽 然信贷增长的速度并不高，但这不意味着信贷支持实体经济力度出现了下降，反而是有利于经济增长的。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 2025 年 4 月 7 日至 6 月 12 日期间， AI 芯片龙头公司英伟达 /AMD/ 博通累计上涨 54%/38%/75% （ vs 纳斯达克指数累计上涨 26% ），北美 AI 板块股价表现强劲， AI 相关利好频出。 （张旭） 2025-06-13 您可点击今日推送内容的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the continuous growth and innovation of Shengyi Technology in the copper-clad laminate industry, emphasizing its market position, financial performance, and strategic initiatives in the AI server sector [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Position and Innovation - Shengyi Technology has maintained its leading position in the copper-clad laminate industry, ranking second globally in rigid copper-clad laminate sales with a market share of 14% in 2023 [3]. - The company has actively pursued innovation, applying for 58 domestic patents, 5 foreign patents, and 3 PCT patents in 2024, with a total of 682 authorized effective patents by the end of 2024 [3]. Group 2: AI Server Market Development - The global AI server market is projected to grow from $125.1 billion in 2024 to $158.7 billion in 2025, and is expected to exceed $222.7 billion by 2028 [4]. - Shengyi Technology is responding to the increasing demand for AI servers by collaborating with major domestic and international clients on GPU and AI projects, with products already in mass supply [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Shengyi Technology achieved a revenue of 20.388 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.739 billion yuan, up 49.37% year-on-year [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.611 billion yuan, a 26.86% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 564 million yuan, reflecting a 43.76% growth [5]. Group 4: Production and Sales Growth - In 2024, Shengyi Technology produced 14,371.48 million square meters of various copper-clad laminates, a 17.03% increase from the previous year, and sold 14,348.54 million square meters, up 19.40% [6]. - The production of bonding sheets reached 18,903.45 million meters, a 12.28% increase, while sales were 18,820.27 million meters, growing by 11.50% [6]. - The production and sales of printed circuit boards were 147.16 million square meters and 145.69 million square meters, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.10% and 15.24% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the potassium fertilizer market, highlighting the price agreements for 2025 contracts and the implications for supply and demand dynamics in the context of global geopolitical uncertainties [2][3][4]. Group 1: Potassium Fertilizer Contracts - In June 2025, a major potassium fertilizer import contract was established between the Russian Potash Company (BPC) and Indian importer IPL at a price of $349 per ton, marking a $70 per ton increase (25%) from the previous year [2]. - On June 12, 2025, China's potassium fertilizer import negotiation team reached an agreement with a Dubai-based supplier for a contract price of $346 per ton CFR, translating to approximately 2830 RMB per ton based on the exchange rate at that time [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Uncertainties - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contribute to uncertainties in the global potassium chloride supply chain, prompting China to enhance its focus on the security of strategic resources like potassium [3]. - The potential for further sanctions from Western countries against major potassium producers such as Russia and Belarus adds to the supply chain risks [3]. Group 3: Future Demand Projections - Global demand for potassium chloride is projected to exceed 80 million tons by 2030, driven by population growth and increasing food quality expectations, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.3%-3.2% from 2023 to 2030 [4]. - China is expected to be the largest market for potassium chloride, with demand estimated at 17.5-18.5 million tons in 2024, while other Asian regions are anticipated to see significant growth in demand, increasing by 37.4%-48.4% compared to 2020 levels [4].