Policy Tracking - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the introduction of a comprehensive financial policy aimed at stabilizing the stock market, real estate market, and enhancing financial support for private and technology-driven enterprises [1][2]. 1. Financial Policy Announcement - On May 7, a press conference was held to introduce a "package of financial policies" to support market stability and expectations, detailing three major types of monetary policy measures and ten specific initiatives [1]. - The central bank's measures include a comprehensive reduction in reserve requirements and interest rate cuts to alleviate the financial burden on commercial banks, thereby creating room for lower loan rates [1]. 2. Support for Private Economy - The newly introduced Private Economy Promotion Law aims to ensure the legal status of the private economy and emphasizes the importance of promoting its sustainable and high-quality development [2][4]. - The law focuses on fair competition, investment financing, and technological innovation, establishing a solid legal framework for the private sector [4]. 3. Regional Financial Cooperation - The 28th ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting discussed global and regional macroeconomic conditions, emphasizing the need for enhanced regional financial cooperation to address uncertainties in the global economy [5][6]. - China expressed its commitment to deepening financial cooperation within the region, supporting multilateral financing models, and promoting stability in the financial markets [5][6]. 4. Macro Policy Adjustments - The Chinese government plans to adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve a GDP growth target of around 5% by 2025, with a focus on building a unified domestic market and expanding high-level openness [7][8]. - The government aims to share development opportunities with the Asia-Pacific region while addressing global challenges [7][8]. 5. Financial Services for Small and Micro Enterprises - The National Financial Supervision Administration released a notice outlining goals for small and micro enterprise financial services, aiming for stable credit growth and improved service quality [9][10]. - The notice emphasizes the importance of maintaining effective credit supply and reducing the comprehensive financing costs for small and micro enterprises [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent easing of US-China tariff tensions, drawing parallels to the previous tariff phase under the Trump administration, highlighting the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing [2]. Group 1: Underestimated Tariff Exemption Mechanism - The tariff exemption mechanism operates independently and is primarily initiated by US importers, not reliant on US-China negotiations [3][9]. - During the first tariff phase, the highest percentage of exempted goods reached 60%, with a total of 50 rounds of exemptions since 2018, amounting to a maximum of 118.3 billion [3][12]. - The current round of exemptions is progressing faster than the previous phase, with 26.5% of total US imports from China in 2024 already included in the exemption list [3][14]. Group 2: Reasons for Tariff Exemptions - Exempted products generally have a high dependency on Chinese imports, with rubber and plastics showing exemption rates of 62.9% and 62.2% respectively [4][19]. - Tariffs have led to increased industry costs, with a direct correlation observed between high tariff rates and significant increases in Producer Price Index (PPI) for affected industries [4][24]. - The exemptions also aim to alleviate supply-demand mismatches in the US industry, particularly in sectors where domestic competitiveness has declined [5][29]. Group 3: Assessing the "Irreplaceability" of Chinese Manufacturing - The article proposes a five-dimensional framework to evaluate the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing, focusing on industries with strong supply chain ties to China [6][36]. - Industries such as machinery, rubber plastics, and electrical equipment are highlighted as having significant difficulty in decoupling from Chinese supply chains [6][38]. - The analysis identifies nine sectors with irreplaceable products, including computer communication electronics and rubber plastic manufacturing [6][36]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - Industries with high import price increases and low reductions in dependency on China, such as rubber plastics and chemical products, indicate a persistent irreplaceability [7][43]. - High markup industries, including electric vehicles and consumer electronics, maintain strong market competitiveness despite tariff pressures, with some products showing price premiums of 1.5 to 2.4 times in the US market [7][50]. - Industries reliant on Chinese supply chains, such as textiles and consumer electronics, exhibit lower cost rates compared to the manufacturing average, reinforcing their dependency on Chinese imports [7][53].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial production remains stable, with marginal improvements in infrastructure construction and a significant increase in human mobility [1][4][25]. Group 1: Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate shows resilience, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 3.1% [1][4]. - The chemical chain production has improved, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 1.5, 1.2, and 1.6 percentage points to 1.3%, 1.2%, and 2.9% respectively [1][9]. - However, the operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires has significantly declined, down 11.3 percentage points to -17.9% [1][9]. Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates declining by 14% to -5% and 3.8% to -6.3% respectively [1][15]. - Asphalt operating rates have increased year-on-year, up 7% to 2% [1][22]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Port cargo throughput has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4 percentage points to 4.2% [1][26]. - The migration index has shown a strong performance, increasing by 50.5 percentage points to 51.4% [1][29]. - New housing transactions have increased by 36.2% year-on-year to 26.8%, with all city tiers showing recovery [1][25]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with vegetable, pork, and egg prices falling by 2.2%, 2.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2][36]. - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 0.4% [2][41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent US-UK trade agreement, termed the "Economic Prosperity Agreement," represents a strategic move by the US to maintain tariffs while adjusting its trade negotiation tactics, focusing on political gains for the Trump administration [1][2][57]. - The US retains a 10% baseline tariff on the UK while reducing tariffs on automotive and steel products, and the UK has agreed to increase agricultural imports from the US and purchase Boeing aircraft worth $10 billion [1][6][57]. - The agreement is seen as a framework document without legal binding, reflecting the special ally status of the UK and the relatively limited economic significance of the trade relationship [1][12][57]. Group 2 - The US trade negotiation strategy has shifted to prioritize political achievements for Trump, with a focus on increasing tariff revenues, as evidenced by Trump's declining approval ratings [2][15][57]. - The US has softened its hawkish stance in trade negotiations, avoiding complex issues like digital service taxes and drug trade, and instead focusing on agriculture and automotive sectors [2][15][58]. - The US is actively pursuing trade negotiations with 17 economies, including India, Japan, and Vietnam, with a particular emphasis on smaller economies to quickly secure agreements [3][21][59]. Group 3 - Key contradictions in trade negotiations with the EU center around digital service taxes and automotive import barriers, with the EU maintaining a significant trade surplus with the US [3][24][59]. - The US-Japan negotiations face challenges primarily in the automotive and agricultural sectors, with Japan's agricultural policies being a significant barrier to concessions [3][30][59]. - The article suggests that future trade conflicts may evolve through issue segmentation, leading to localized agreements rather than comprehensive ones, especially with smaller economies [4][37][60]. Group 4 - The likelihood of achieving comprehensive agreements with core economies in the short term is low, and a phased approach focusing on localized agreements is deemed more realistic [4][60]. - Historical precedents indicate that US trade conflicts often end in political backlash or through WTO rulings, suggesting a cautious approach to future negotiations [4][49][60].

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 陈达飞 等 申万宏源宏观 . 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 热点思考：金 融压力或 是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 一、滞胀环境下，美联储如何平衡"双重使命"？ 金融压力或为主要矛盾周 关税冲击下，滞胀是美联储决策的"难题"。 关税的经济效应为"滞胀"。制造业PMI、短期通胀预期等指 标已表明，滞胀风险渐行渐近。"双重使命"的平衡导致美联储左右为难。5月FOMC例会表明，美联储或 将选择"事后反应"的立场，而非"事前防范"。 滞胀环境下，金融压力或成为美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾： 1）胀的风险或超过滞的压力；2）金融压力上 行或强化经济下行风险、弱化通胀上行风险；3）综合而言，由于关税引发的通胀是"临时的"，美联储或 在"风险平衡"的考虑之后，更加关注经济下行风险。 二、"双重使命"之外，金融压力如何影响美联储的"决策"？加剧经济压力，促使联储转鸽 当金融压力持续且显著上行时，美联储或考虑政策对冲。 金融压力可综合衡量融资条件、违约风险或风 险偏好。一方面，金融压力上行本就隐含了经济下行的预期；另一方面，在"金融加速器"机制之下，金 融压力上行或进一步加剧经济下行压力，比如 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of stagflation due to tariffs and the divided market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, emphasizing the importance of financial market conditions in the Fed's decision-making process in 2025 [3][51]. Group 1: Overseas Major Assets & Events - The overseas asset performance showed divergence, with a significant rebound in oil prices. WTI crude oil increased by 4.7% to $61.0 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 3.1% to $3,326.3 per ounce [4][26][29]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of 0.5%, with mixed performances across developed market indices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.37% [4][13]. - The U.S. and the UK reached a trade agreement, with the U.S. maintaining a 10% tariff on UK imports while reducing tariffs on UK automobiles for the first 100,000 units [4][33]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The May FOMC meeting highlighted a "wait-and-see" approach, acknowledging the uncertainty in economic prospects and the rising risks of higher unemployment and inflation. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at [4.25%-4.50%] [39][41]. - Fed officials expressed that the current economic conditions do not necessitate immediate adjustments to interest rates, emphasizing the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy [41][39]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3 were reported at 228,000, lower than the market expectation of 230,000, indicating a robust labor market [45]. - Germany's industrial production in March increased by 3% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 1%, driven by strong performances in pharmaceuticals and motor vehicles [43][44].

Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs on PPI is significant, while improved consumer demand provides substantial support for core CPI [4][5][47] - International oil prices have declined, and weak demand for steel and coal has led to a drop in commodity prices, negatively affecting PPI [4][10] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated demand for certain goods, leading to a slight increase in core CPI despite the overall decline [5][48] Inflation Data Summary - On May 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released April inflation data: CPI year-on-year at -0.1%, previous value -0.1%, expected -0.2%; PPI year-on-year at -2.7%, previous value -2.5%, expected -2.8% [3][46] - April PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, slightly better than market expectations [10][30] PPI Analysis - The decline in PPI is attributed to falling international oil prices, which have led to a decrease in domestic oil prices, negatively impacting sectors like oil extraction and processing [4][10] - The real estate sector's downturn and seasonal factors have contributed to reduced demand for steel and coal, further dragging down PPI [4][10] - The low capacity utilization in downstream industries, exacerbated by increased tariffs, has also constrained PPI recovery [13][47] CPI Analysis - Core CPI showed a limited decline, primarily due to the "old-for-new" policy, which has stimulated demand and led to price increases in certain consumer goods [5][48] - Food CPI improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to -0.2%, driven by seasonal supply constraints and reduced imports [20][34] - Gold price increases have supported other goods and services prices, contributing positively to overall CPI [22][48] Service Sector Insights - The core service CPI increased by 0.44% month-on-month, slightly better than seasonal trends, driven by a rebound in travel demand [6][25][49] - Significant price increases were observed in travel-related services, such as airfare and vehicle rentals, reflecting improved consumer activity [25][49] Future Outlook - The impact of tariffs on PPI is expected to be greater than on CPI, with potential downward pressure on both indices in the second quarter [7][27] - However, policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand may provide support for inflation recovery [7][27]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者宏观团队 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 4 . 2 7 - 5 . 9 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、 深度专题 | 提振消费的"关键"？ 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第29期 《聚焦"政治局会议"》 《美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四》 4、"洞见"系列会议第59期 《美国经济：滞涨困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五》 深度专题 热 点 思 考 1 热点思考 | 美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四 热点思考 2025.4.28 1 深度专题 | 提振消费的"关键"？ 深度专题 2025.5.7 4月中央政治局会议提出"设立服务消费与养老再贷款"，促消费工具箱再"上新"。提振消费的"关键"何在，后续 还有哪些期待？ 1、 热点思考 | 美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四 2、 热点思考 | 美国经济：滞胀困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五 3、 3分钟看清五一全球要闻 1、 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭等 申万宏源宏观 . 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 5月09日，央行发布2025年一季度货币政策执行报告（以下简称《报告》）。 央行对外部环境关注度显著提高，《报告》指出"当前外部冲击影响加大，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易 保护主义抬头，地缘冲突持续存在"。 2024年四季度报告对应表述是"当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响 加深"。两次相比较，本次更加突出了外部环境的不利影响，显示出央行密切关注美国单边贸易保护主义 对我国经济的扰动。 央行肯定一季度经济表现，并强调要"要坚定发展信心，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的不确 定性"。 2024年四季度报告认为"国内需求不足、风险隐患仍然较多等困难挑战也还存在"，而本次报告则 认为"我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固"。针对下一阶段，央行强调我国具备诸多优势条 件，经济长期向好的基本趋势没有改变。 政策基调：灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏，降低银行负债成本。 总基调方面，《报告》提出"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强 等 申万宏源宏观 . 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 文 | 赵伟、屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 联系人 | 屠强 事件： 5月9日，海关公布4月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比8.1%、预期0.6%、前值12.4%；进口 （美元计价）同比-0.2%、预期-6.9%、前值-4.3%。 核心观点：领先指标显示，5月"抢出口"或将继续。 4月出口同比回落主因春节错位扰动消退，春节调整后同比明显回升。 4月出口同比（美元计价）较3月 回落4.3pct至8.1%，更多受春节错位扰动消退的影响。经测算，春节错月因素拖累4月出口增速6.7pct。春 节调整后，4月出口同比较3月回升4.0pct至8.1%。 4月出口偏强主因"抢出口"，包括通过新兴经济体"转出口"与通过加墨"转运"，"4月生产-下旬出港-5月中 旬美国到港"的抢出口数据链条均在改善。 从国别数据看，4月对东盟（+17.6pct到21.0%）、对韩国 （+8.1pct至-0.1%）等出口增速均明显上升。从中观指标看，4月制造业PMI生产指数仍维持49.8%的较高 水平。4月中下旬港口外 ...