文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 2025年初以来，美国大幅"抢进口"，但"累库存"现象相对滞后。展望未来，美国"抢进口"能否持续，"安 全"库存水平会否提升？ 热点思考： 美国经济："消失的"库存？ 一、2025年初以来，美国累库幅度大幅落后于"超额进口" 年初以来，美国"抢进口"现象极为显著。 特朗普胜选以来，随着加征关税预期升温，美国"抢进口"现象 极为显著。中国出口、美国进口、港口数据对"抢进口"现象均有所反映。5月12日中美日内瓦谈判以来， 中国-美国集装箱预订量大幅提升，新一轮"抢进口"已拉开序幕。 但是，一季度美国补库幅度远弱于商品进口，库存"去哪儿了"？ 美国一季度GDP中，商品进口拖累经济 增速5个百分点（环比年化），但库存仅拉动GDP增速2.6个百分点，幅度仅为商品进口的一半。从月度 数据角度来看，美国商品进口增速也远超库存增速。 二、如何理解美国库存与进口的分歧？一季度内需稳健+库存统计滞后 内需韧性和统计的滞后性可解释"消失"的库存。 1）一季度，美国多数行业库存增速提升，但由于美国 内需保持韧性，尤其是投资需求，导致库销比相对稳定。3月，美国商业库销比仅为1.3 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent judicial challenge to Trump's tariffs, where the U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the IEEPA were illegal, infringing on Congress's trade legislative authority [31] - Following the ruling, Trump appealed to the Federal Circuit Court, which issued a stay on the lower court's decision, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect during the appeal process [31] - The article highlights the performance of major asset classes, noting that U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, saw increases of 2.0% and 1.9% respectively, while the Nikkei 225 rose by 2.2% [2][3] Group 2 - The article reports that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points to 4.41%, indicating a decline in bond yields across developed markets [13] - The dollar index increased by 0.3% to 99.44, while the offshore yuan strengthened to 7.2065 against the dollar [17][24] - Commodity prices generally declined, with WTI crude oil down 1.2% to $60.8 per barrel and COMEX gold down 1.8% to $3289.4 per ounce [26][29] Group 3 - The article notes that the April PCE inflation in the U.S. was in line with market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [37] - The meeting between Powell and Trump did not include discussions on interest rate cuts, emphasizing that the Fed's decisions are independent of presidential influence [33][55] - The article mentions that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were slightly below expectations, while continuing claims were higher than anticipated, indicating potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [43]

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [2][10][52] - The new export index remains low, while domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI shows overall improvement, with production and new order indices rising by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion threshold, while the new order index remains in contraction territory, indicating faster production but weaker demand [2][10] - Industries with high domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, have seen PMIs rise by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [2][21] - Conversely, export-dependent sectors like textiles and chemicals have underperformed, with production and new order indices below the critical point [2][21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, with the construction sector experiencing a notable decline due to weak real estate performance [2][67] - The construction PMI fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51%, while civil engineering activities are accelerating, as indicated by a PMI of 62.3% [29][67] - Service sector PMI saw a marginal increase to 50.2%, driven by improved activity in tourism and dining during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, necessitating close monitoring of fiscal policies' impact on domestic demand [45] - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs has created a temporary freeze on tariff enforcement, adding to the external uncertainties [45] - Service consumption and infrastructure investment are expected to be key areas for fiscal support, potentially enhancing domestic demand [45]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. legislative actions, particularly the tax reduction bill passed by the House of Representatives, and its potential impact on the economy, including deficits and interest rates [6][10][17]. Group 1: Deep Topics - The article analyzes the recent U.S. court ruling regarding Trump's tariffs, questioning the legality and future implications of such tariffs on trade [3][7]. - It highlights the ongoing "pressure test" series on tariffs, focusing on how these legal and legislative changes may affect market dynamics [6][7]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article raises concerns about an impending "storm" in U.S. Treasury bonds, suggesting that the tax reduction bill could exacerbate deficits and influence interest rates [9][10]. - It discusses new employment trends based on recent wage data, identifying sectors experiencing wage increases and those showing signs of "anti-involution" [11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policies following the tax bill's passage, suggesting that new policies may help stabilize fiscal spending and support economic recovery [13][14]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes a continuous increase in automobile sales, indicating a strong performance in the automotive sector despite broader economic challenges [15][16]. - It mentions that industrial production remains stable, although infrastructure projects have seen a decline, reflecting mixed signals in economic recovery [16][18].

报告正文 2. 政策跟踪：制造业是国民经济的重要支柱 2.1 总书记河南考察：制造业是国民经济的重要支柱 5月19-20日，习近平总书记对"十五五"规划编制工作作出重要指示并赴河南进行考察调研。习近平总书 记指出，"十五五"规划编制要坚持科学、民主、依法决策，企业要根据规划调整战略，把握政策红利，推动 产业结构优化升级。在河南考察时，总书记强调，制造业是国民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保 持制造业合理比重，同时，现代制造业离不开科技赋能，要大力加强技术攻关，走自主创新的发展路子。 2.2 商务部例行发布会：做强国内市场、促进消费 5月22日，商务部召开例行新闻发布会，剔除做强国内市场，促进消费，更好发挥消费对经济循环的牵 引带动作用。发布会上，商务部剔除将加快实施提振消费专项行动，推进促消费政策落实；加快完善现代商 贸流通体系，支持再生资源回收和二手商品流通，推进电商高质量发展；加快推进内外贸一体化，帮扶企业 有效应对外部冲击。对于刚刚结束的APEC第三十一届贸易部长会议，发言人表示中方愿与各方深化经济合 作，加快区域经济一体化。 | 时间 | 事件 | 内容概要 | 主要内容 加快实施提振消费专项行 ...

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant "front-loading" of fiscal debt financing and expenditure structure, which has stabilized economic performance in the first half of the year [1][2][4] - From January to April 2025, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2%, indicating strong fiscal support for the economy [2][8] - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds, with net financing of 4.8 trillion yuan from January to April, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][21] Group 2 - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt, of which 6.3 trillion yuan has been financed by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32] - The issuance of treasury bonds has accelerated, with 42.7% of the budget target achieved by May 24, 2025, significantly higher than the average of 16.9% from 2020 to 2024 [3][21] - The government is expected to maintain high levels of net financing through the third quarter, with projections of 2.3 trillion yuan in the second quarter and 3.8 trillion yuan in the third quarter [4][35] Group 3 - The government may introduce incremental policies to smooth fiscal expenditure and ensure the achievement of annual economic goals, especially given uncertainties in economic recovery in the second half of the year [5][37] - Policy tools such as budgetary and non-budgetary measures will be utilized to stabilize economic fluctuations, with a focus on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment as key areas for fiscal support [6][50] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending by reducing burdens and increasing income, with significant potential for recovery in service consumption, which currently stands at only 87.7% of historical trends [50][51]

Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1% [1][4] - Chemical production shows marginal recovery, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 0.1, 0.7, and 0.8 percentage points respectively [1][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to -2.6% [1][17] Construction Industry - Construction activity has weakened, with significant declines in grinding and cement shipment rates, down 1.1 percentage points to -4.6% and 1 percentage point to -8% respectively [1][29] - The asphalt operating rate has notably decreased by 8.8 percentage points to -2% [1][41] - Cement average prices continue to decline [1][29] Downstream Demand - New housing transactions show marginal improvement, with average daily transaction area increasing by 14.2% year-on-year to 0.9%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][53] - Automotive sales remain strong, with retail and wholesale volumes increasing by 15.4% to 28.5% and 21.4% to 22.1% respectively [2][80] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has improved, while container shipping prices show mixed performance [2][89] Price Trends - Prices of agricultural and industrial products have generally declined, with pork, vegetables, fruits, and eggs decreasing by 0.2%, 1.1%, 1.5%, and 1.3% respectively [2][99] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 1%, with energy and chemical prices down by 1.3% and metal prices down by 0.6% [2][111]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new trends in employment and wage data for urban employees in 2024, highlighting shifts from high salary pursuits to a focus on reducing work intensity and improving work-life balance [1]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Employment is shifting from a focus on high salaries to a trend of "anti-involution," where workers prefer industries with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages. This change has been observed since 2021, contrasting with the pre-2019 trend of concentrating on high-paying sectors [2][9]. - The average annual wage growth for urban non-private sector employees has slowed to 2.8% in 2024, down from a peak in 2021, with significant declines in sectors like information technology and finance [2][9]. - Industries such as transportation and light manufacturing have shown resilience in wage growth due to direct revenue increases, with transportation revenue growth exceeding 8% in 2024 [2][21]. Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence and Employment Shifts - There is a convergence in wage growth between eastern and western regions of China, with the wage growth gap narrowing from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2024 [4][53]. - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating to the central and western regions, while production-related jobs continue to flow into the eastern regions. This trend is supported by stronger wage growth in the service sector in these areas [4][75]. - The service consumption pattern is shifting from local to cross-province, further concentrating service sector employment in the central and western regions, driven by faster consumption growth in these areas [5][80]. Group 3: Wage Growth in Private and Flexible Employment - Wages in the private sector have generally lagged behind those in the non-private sector, but certain industries within the private sector, such as education and retail, have experienced higher wage growth [6][96]. - New forms of flexible employment, such as ride-hailing and delivery services, have seen significant wage increases, with average monthly salaries for these roles reaching 10,506 yuan, surpassing traditional employment salaries [7][114]. - The work intensity for new flexible employment roles is higher, with average weekly working hours for platform workers reaching 54.3 hours, indicating a trade-off between higher pay and increased workload [7][122].

Core Viewpoint - The profit recovery in April is primarily due to short-term improvements in costs and expenses, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure on profits in the third quarter due to tariff disturbances [3][76]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In April, industrial profits increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, driven by improvements in cost and expense pressures [3][9]. - The contribution of costs and expenses to overall profit improved, with costs contributing +2.7 percentage points and expenses +0.5 percentage points [3][76]. - Actual operating revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, contributing 4.9% to overall profit growth [3][9]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Industry Performance - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86%, with a year-on-year marginal decline of 12.6 basis points [3][17]. - The cost rate for downstream consumer manufacturing increased by 59.7 basis points to 84.3%, which is significantly lower than seasonal trends [3][17]. - The petrochemical and metallurgy sectors showed weaker cost performance compared to previous years, with cost rates rising by 37.3 basis points to 86.5% and declining by 18.2 basis points to 87%, respectively [3][17]. Group 3: Revenue Support from Infrastructure and Exports - The coal and metallurgy sectors, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant support to revenue due to infrastructure investment and export activities [4][27]. - The actual revenue growth rate fell by 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, with the petrochemical sector experiencing a notable decline of 3 percentage points to 2.1% [4][27]. - The consumer manufacturing sector maintained a relatively high revenue growth rate of 7.8%, supported by short-term export activities [4][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - The impact of tariffs on profitability may manifest with a lag, and the low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors adds uncertainty to future profit recovery [4][33]. - Historical data indicates that the impact of profit margins on profits is greater than that of revenue, with current low capacity utilization keeping cost rates high [4][33]. - Previous experiences suggest that after tariff implementation, profit growth may decline more sharply than revenue due to increased fixed costs and reduced asset turnover [4][33]. Group 5: Regular Tracking of Industrial Enterprises - Industrial enterprise profits showed a recovery, primarily benefiting from improved profit margins, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [5][78]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises remained stable, with significant increases in the food and beverage sectors, where revenue growth rates rose by 8.8%, 7.0%, and 2.9% year-on-year [5][50]. - Inventory growth slightly declined, indicating that terminal demand still requires further recovery, with nominal inventory down 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [5][61].

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美债利率异常波动的核心驱动事件是美国减税法案及日债需求走弱。 在二者的影响下，美债利率5月份 出现三次大幅异常上升。从根源上看，此次美债下跌源自减税引发的债务可持续担忧，但5月20日，日债 拍卖走弱大幅加速了美债利率上涨，导致美债与美元走势明显分化。 美债期限溢价升至新高，反应了财政、通胀、货币和交易的扰动。 美债期限溢价去年10月转正，至5月 22日升至0.9%，成为影响利率走势的主导因素。4月30日以来，10年美债利率上升37BP，其中期限溢价 上升28BP，短端实际利率预期上涨11BP，期限溢价贡献达七成。 （二）《美丽大法案》的进展及争议？2026年赤字率或挑战8%，但对经济的边际贡献有限 共和党在参议院仅有三个席位优势，《美丽大法案》能否按期通过存在不确定性。 法案现已递交参议 院，各委员会或在6月上旬进行审议，6月中旬前后举行全体投票。若参议院对法案进行较大修改，需众 议院再次投票、或与参院"协调"消除分歧——集中在医疗补助、SALT领域。 法案以延续TCJA减税为主体，经济影响可类比2010年奥巴马延长减税政策，增量提振效果或较为有限。 延长现 ...