Group 1: Major Assets & Overseas Events & Data - Most developed countries' government bond yields have risen significantly, with the US 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 12.0 basis points to 4.14% [15] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.9% during the week, while the dollar index fell by 0.5% to 98.98 [94] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.6% to $60.1 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices decreased by 0.6% to $4197.6 per ounce [33][94] Group 2: US National Security Strategy - The US released its 2025 National Security Strategy, emphasizing the protection of US territory and security in the Western Hemisphere as top priorities [62] - The strategy criticizes the decline of Europe and demographic changes, insisting that Europe must bear the primary costs of its own defense [62] - The importance of the Middle East has been downgraded, with a focus on avoiding re-engagement in prolonged ground wars [62] Group 3: Employment and Consumption Data - In November, ADP employment in the US decreased by 32,000, contrary to market expectations of an increase of 10,000, with weakness concentrated in small businesses [69] - The actual PCE consumption in September was flat at 0%, below the market expectation of 0.1%, indicating weakness in consumer spending [72] Group 4: Commodity Prices - The prices of most commodities rose, with LME copper increasing by 5.7% to $11,616 per ton and WTI crude oil rising by 2.6% [33][38] - The inflation expectations rose by 3 basis points to 2.26% [42]

摘要 2025年中以来，美国新增非农就业"断崖式"下滑，失业上行风险有所增加。美国就业市场缘何"大逆 转"、AI的"替代效应"有多大？2026年，美国"无就业的增长"会否延续？ 一、热点思考：大逆转与再平衡——2026年美国就业市场展望 （一）AI与就业：创造还是毁灭？"结构性冲击"有所体现，但整体拖累有限 AI对美国就业市场的"需求冲击"引发市场关注，但目前主要是结构性的。 美国企业AI的采用率已从2年 前的3.7%升至10%（2025年9月）；10月挑战者裁员数达15.3万个，同比提升175%，其中21.7%来自科技 行业；归纳而言，AI的结构性冲击或集中体现在三大方面：高AI暴露度行业、职场年轻群体、高薪职 位。 但整体而言，AI或并非2025年美国就业转弱的主要原因。 主要依据是：1）2023年以来，AI 采用率提升 幅度与就业增速变化的负向相关性较弱（R²= 0.09）；2）居民职业结构调整尚未出现加速迹象；3）在应 用AI的企业中，企业更倾向重新"培训"员工，而非裁员。 （二）2025年美国就业"大逆转"的主因：移民、政府裁员影响或更大 回顾2025年，美国就业市场供需双双走弱，表现为"低招聘、低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, emphasizing the need for strengthened coordination, structural optimization, and deepened reforms in the context of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5]. Group 1: In-depth Topics - The fiscal and monetary policy in 2026 is expected to enhance coordination and optimize structure, focusing on deepening reforms [5]. - The combination of "expansive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy" in Japan may trigger a reversal in carry trade, highlighting the need to be cautious about the divergence and potential shifts in monetary policy between the US and Japan [5]. Group 2: Data Commentary - The November PMI showed a limited rebound, primarily influenced by high inventory levels and the fading effects of holidays [9]. - In the US, September retail sales were weaker than expected, leading to a significant increase in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold rising by 3.4% to $4223.9 per ounce [9].

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

Group 1 - The article highlights that major asset classes saw an increase, with equities and precious metals like gold and silver experiencing significant gains. The S&P 500 rose by 3.7% and the Nasdaq by 4.9% during the week [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.0 basis points to 4.02%, while the dollar index fell by 0.7% to 99.44, indicating a strengthening of other currencies against the dollar [2][21][32] - The article notes that the WTI crude oil price increased by 0.8% to $58.6 per barrel, and COMEX gold rose by 3.4% to $4223.9 per ounce, reflecting a positive trend in commodity prices [2][47][54] Group 2 - The article discusses the signing of the "Genesis Plan" by Trump, aimed at doubling U.S. scientific productivity over ten years, although it lacks specific budget allocations [2][64] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for 2025 reached $1.65 trillion, with total expenditures at $7.29 trillion and tax revenues at $4.49 trillion, indicating a slight decrease in the deficit compared to the previous year [2][65] - The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve indicates a slight decline in employment and a reduction in hiring activity, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][77] Group 3 - U.S. retail sales for September grew by only 0.2%, falling short of market expectations, with notable declines in categories such as sporting goods and online retail [2][81] - The article mentions that the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed predicts a 3.9% growth rate for the U.S. economy in the third quarter, indicating a stable economic outlook despite the retail sales data [2][84]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic stimulus plan introduced by Prime Minister Kishi Sanae, which is expected to weaken the yen and increase inflationary pressures in Japan. The combination of expansive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy may lead to risks of a reversal in carry trade, necessitating caution regarding the divergence in monetary policies between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve [2][8]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - Kishi Sanae's economic stimulus plan amounts to 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD), slightly exceeding market expectations of 17 trillion yen. The fiscal deficit rate for Japan is projected to rise significantly in 2026 [3][9]. - The stimulus plan focuses on three main areas: 55% for inflation subsidies and social welfare (11.7 trillion yen), 34% for strategic industry investments (7.2 trillion yen), and 8% for defense and diplomacy (1.7 trillion yen) [3][15]. Group 2: Impact on GDP and Inflation - The expansive fiscal policy may raise Japan's GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2026, which is lower than the contributions expected from the US (0.6 points) and Germany (0.63 points). The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase by 1.77 percentage points in Japan, compared to 1.0 points in the US and 0.84 points in Germany [4][23]. - While the inflation subsidies may temporarily lower the overall CPI growth by 0.7 percentage points in early 2026, they could simultaneously increase core inflation pressures in the medium term due to rising real incomes and a weaker yen [4][29]. Group 3: Risks of Carry Trade Reversal - The combination of high inflation and a weak yen makes it difficult for Kishi's expansive fiscal policy to coexist with the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy. Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan suggest a potential shift towards interest rate hikes [5][35]. - The divergence between the yen and US dollar interest rates, with the yen reaching a low of 157.9 against the dollar while the US-Japan 2-year interest rate spread narrows to around 2.5%, indicates that the market has priced in risks associated with Japan's fiscal expansion [5][41]. - The current conditions suggest a potential for a reversal in carry trade, although the impact may be milder compared to August 2024. Factors such as net short positions in the yen, the degree of divergence between exchange rates and interest rates, volatility, and triggering conditions should be monitored [5][47].

Core Viewpoints - The PMI for November shows limited recovery, primarily influenced by high inventory levels and the fading effects of holidays [2][4][88] - In the manufacturing sector, the PMI increased slightly to 49.2%, reflecting weak overall performance despite a low base [2][10][44] - The production index remains weak, with only a minor increase to the threshold line of 50%, indicating ongoing production challenges [2][10][19] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, with production and new orders indices showing slight improvements of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively [5][44][89] - High inventory levels from previous months continue to constrain current production, with the finished goods inventory index decreasing to 47.3% [2][19][87] - Key industries such as high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods have seen their PMIs fall into contraction territory, while energy-intensive industries have shown some improvement [3][22][88] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, primarily due to a high base from the previous month and the impact of holiday effects [3][36][59] - Service industries, including retail and hospitality, experienced declines in their PMIs, while sectors like telecommunications and financial services remained in a high growth zone [3][36][88] - The construction sector's PMI improved to 49.6%, with significant increases in new orders and employment indices, indicating a potential recovery in this area [30][36][76] Economic Outlook - The short-term disturbances from high inventory levels are expected to dissipate, and with supportive fiscal policies being implemented, economic growth is anticipated to remain resilient [4][42][88] - The easing of debt-related investment constraints is reflected in the improvements seen in energy-intensive and construction sectors [4][42][88] - Overall, the combination of external demand stability and the rollout of fiscal measures is projected to support economic resilience through the end of the year [4][42][88]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 11 . 2 2 - 11 . 2 8 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 1、热点思考 | 跟随市场——9月非农点评与12月美联储降息展望 高频跟踪 1、海外高频 | 特朗普下调食品关税，高市早苗推出财政刺激草案 2、数据点评 | 利润走低的"三重拖累" 3、Top Charts | 投资"失速"的真相？ 电话会议 1、"周见系列" 第58期: 《2026年财政金融展望》 2、"洞见系列" 第102期: 《跟随市场--9月非农点评与12月美联储降息展望》 3、"速见系列" 第13期: 《热点思考》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 跟随市场——9月非农点评与12月美联储降息展望 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.11.23 目录 热点思考 9月非农数据是否支持降息、联储内部哪一派"票数"占优？ | 行业 | 就业总人数 占比(%) | | | | | | | | | 新增非农就业人数 季调(千人) | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in industrial enterprise profits in October is primarily attributed to a high base effect, weakened profit margins, and declining revenue, collectively referred to as the "triple drag" [2][10][79]. Revenue - In October, industrial enterprise revenue showed a notable decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.8%, down from 2.4% in the previous month. The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, fell by 6.8 percentage points to -1.4% [1][7][81]. - All three major industrial chains—petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer—experienced significant revenue declines, with year-on-year reductions of 6.3, 6.6, and 6.3 percentage points, respectively [2][16][81]. Profitability - Industrial enterprise profits saw a substantial year-on-year decline of 27.1 percentage points to -5.5% in October, with the operating profit margin dropping by 20.9 percentage points to -6.1% [5][44][83]. - The profit margin decline is largely driven by increased expense ratios and other loss items, which saw significant reductions compared to the previous month [2][10][79]. Industry Analysis - Industries such as non-metallic products, rubber and plastics, and general equipment faced the most significant profit declines, with respective reductions of 2, 1.4, and 1.9 percentage points [3][19][20]. - The revenue of these industries also fell sharply, with non-metallic products, rubber and plastics, and electrical machinery experiencing year-on-year declines of 19.7%, 14.2%, and 9.5% [19][20]. Cost Structure - Industrial enterprises faced increasing cost pressures, with the cost rate reaching 85.6%, a relative high compared to recent years. The cost's impact on profit remained negative at -3.2% [3][27][28]. - The metallurgy and consumer chains reported cost rates of 86.1% and 85.1%, respectively, indicating a persistent high cost environment [27][28]. Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to be intensified, with improvements in underutilized capacity. However, cost pressures for industrial enterprises remain significant, necessitating further monitoring of policy effects [4][42][82]. - The ongoing profitability challenges are primarily due to rigid cost pressures stemming from downstream investment behaviors, with expectations for gradual alleviation as enterprises accelerate debt repayments [4][42][82].

Core Insights - The article discusses the mixed signals from the U.S. labor market and the implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly regarding the potential for a rate cut in December [1][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Analysis - The September non-farm payroll data showed a mixed performance, with 119,000 jobs added, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [1][5]. - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-over-month in September, a significant slowdown from 0.4% in August [1][5]. - The rise in the unemployment rate was primarily driven by individuals who were unemployed or left their jobs, while the contribution from new entrants to the labor market remained stable [10][17]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The interest rate cut speculation began after the October FOMC meeting, where Powell's hawkish comments shifted market expectations, leading to volatility in asset prices [3][25]. - Following the mixed non-farm data, the probability of a December rate cut increased slightly by 9% after the November 20 data release, but a more significant rise to nearly 70% occurred after dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams on November 21 [3][34]. - The uncertainty surrounding the December rate cut is influenced by the lack of timely economic data due to government shutdowns, which may lead the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach [3][42]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Fed's Stance - Economic fundamentals and the availability of data suggest that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, as the September non-farm data did not provide clear signals of economic strength or weakness [42][43]. - The Fed's risk balance has shifted from a preventive rate cut approach to a more data-dependent strategy, especially as the current interest rates approach neutral levels [42][43]. - Recent statements from Fed officials indicate a divided stance on further rate cuts, with a slight majority opposing immediate cuts, reflecting concerns about inflation and the current economic conditions [42][43].