文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 摘要 事件：11月17日，财政部公布2025年前10月财政收支情况。前10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿 元，同比增长0.8%；全国一般公共预算支出225825亿元，同比增长2%。 报告正文 核心观点：广义财政支出"骤降"，或主因高基数、收入下滑、政府债融资回落三因素叠加 10月广义财政支出增速"骤降"，当月支出预算完成度处于过往较低水平。 2025年10月，广义财政支出同 比-19.1%，较9月同比下降21.4个百分点；广义财政收入同比-0.6%，较9月同比下降3.8个百分点。10月广 义财政支出预算完成5.6%，低于2024年的7.2%及过去五年平均6.2%，处于历年10月财政支出进度较低水 平。 10月广义财政支出增速"骤降"，部分缘于2024年同期高基数影响及收入端掣肘。 2024年9月以来，广义 财政支出持续提速，10月当月同比达20.4%，较9月增速提升7.8个百分点；一是因为广义财政收入明显修 复，二是因为2024年10月地方新增专项债基本发行完毕且正加快使用。相比2024年同期，当前广义财政 收入回落，进一步掣肘广义财政支出发力。 10 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of "reform" as a source of dividends for the economy, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to accelerate reform processes and enhance domestic demand policies [3][67][83] - The domestic economic environment has undergone three significant changes: the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new supply-side reform framework [2][8][21] - The article discusses the "non-typical recovery" of the economy, driven by improved consumer confidence and the effects of ongoing domestic demand policies, which are expected to lead to a recovery in investment growth and corporate profitability [4][5][55] Group 2 - The article highlights the need for a clear industrial adjustment strategy, focusing on advanced manufacturing as a backbone while upgrading traditional sectors and accelerating the opening of the service industry [67][74] - It points out that the structural changes in exports are evident, with a shift towards high value-added products and a decrease in low value-added goods, indicating a robust export resilience [21][22] - The article stresses the importance of addressing the "internal competition" within industries, which has led to a decline in profit margins and necessitates policies aimed at enhancing corporate profitability and operational vitality [15][41][55]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic situation in China and the implications of U.S. tariff policies, highlighting the potential decline in tariff levels and its impact on trade dynamics [5][8]. Deep Dive - The macroeconomic analysis by Zhao Wei emphasizes the need for a comprehensive understanding of China's economic landscape and future outlook, particularly in light of recent global events [6][7]. Hot Topics - The article analyzes the ongoing debate regarding U.S. tariffs, suggesting that the scale of tariffs may decrease by 25% under baseline scenarios, which could significantly affect trade relations [8]. - The Supreme Court's deliberations on the legality of "countervailing tariffs" under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are highlighted, with various justices expressing differing views on the extent of executive power in tariff imposition [8]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article identifies three main factors contributing to the recent rise in inflation, indicating that the impact of internal competition is limited, and other external factors are more influential [11]. - It discusses the necessity of maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions through a combination of policy tools to support economic growth [12]. - The recent resolution of the U.S. government shutdown is noted, with implications for market stability and employment figures, as ADP employment data exceeded expectations [16][19]. - The analysis points out the economic challenges stemming from overdrawn commodity demand and investment slowdowns, while also noting the recovery in service consumption and easing debt pressures [20]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is re-emerging, indicating shifts in consumer behavior regarding savings [22].

Core Viewpoints - The challenges lie in the overspending of consumer demand and the impact of clearing accounts on investment, while the highlights are the recovery of service consumption and the alleviation of debt issues [2][66] Production - The reduction in working days and high inventory from previous periods have constrained production, leading to a significant decline in industrial value-added growth, which fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.9% in October [9][33] - The manufacturing sector experienced a notable decline in production growth, with a marginal drop of 2.4 percentage points to 4.9% in October [33][66] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth in October was slightly down to 2.9%, primarily due to a decline in goods retail, which fell by 0.5 percentage points [6][52] - The "old-for-new" consumption model saw significant declines in categories such as automobiles (-8.2 percentage points to -6.6%) and home appliances (-17.9 percentage points to -14.6%) [17][66] - Service consumption remained resilient, with restaurant income improving by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8% [17][66] Investment - Fixed asset investment saw a substantial decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6 percentage points to -10.7% in October [19][67] - The impact of land acquisition costs and corporate account clearing has significantly affected investment, with other expenses dropping by 18.8 percentage points to -14.3% [19][67] - Manufacturing and service sector investments have also seen considerable declines, indicating ongoing effects from corporate account clearing and anti-involution policies [19][67] Real Estate - Demand-side sales and housing prices remain weak, with new housing sales area and sales amount dropping significantly by 15.1 percentage points and 17.1 percentage points, respectively [24][67] - The supply side shows a continued decline in credit financing for real estate companies, with new starts and completions also experiencing significant drops [24][67] Summary - Short-term factors are disrupting the economy, but their impact is weakening at the margins; policies are actively countering these effects, and the economy is expected to maintain resilience in the fourth quarter [31][68] - Potential risks include overspending in consumer demand and the impact of account clearing on investment, alongside structural highlights such as the alleviation of debt effects on investment [31][68]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" has re-emerged, with a significant decrease in resident deposits and a corresponding increase in non-bank institution deposits, indicating a shift in financial asset allocation [2][10][48]. Financial Data Summary - In October, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 6.5%, while the social financing stock fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.5%, and M1 decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.2% [1][9][46]. - Resident deposits decreased by approximately 770 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank institution deposits increased by the same amount, reflecting a "seesaw" relationship [2][10][48]. - M1 growth rate decline is linked to the decrease in resident deposits, which is directly related to the contraction in resident credit [2][10][13]. Loan Structure Analysis - In October, corporate loans remained predominantly short-term, with short-term loans and bill financing increasing by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 10.0%, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7% [3][19][48]. - Despite a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for three consecutive months, corporate investment sentiment remains cautious, as indicated by a decline in the PMI business expectations index [3][19][48]. Social Financing Trends - The growth rate of social financing stock has further declined, primarily due to a decrease in net government bond financing following the end of front-loaded fiscal financing [3][23][48]. - In October, net government bond financing decreased by 560.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which was a core factor in the slowdown of social financing growth [3][23][48]. Future Outlook - The stability of social financing is expected to improve with the implementation of two fiscal policies, including the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bond limits [4][49][26]. - These policies aim to stabilize economic operations towards the end of the year and align with the government bond issuance at the beginning of 2026, creating favorable conditions for economic growth [4][49][26]. Regular Monitoring - In October, new credit amounted to 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, primarily from the resident sector [5][50]. - The total social financing added in October was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, driven by declines in government bonds and RMB loans [5][32][50]. - M2 decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 8.2%, while the new M1 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.2%, with significant changes in deposit structures [5][38][50].

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating the legality of Trump's IEEPA reciprocal tariffs, with a majority of justices (6 out of 9) leaning towards declaring them illegal, citing that tariff authority belongs to Congress and that the IEEPA was intended to limit presidential power rather than expand it [1][6][34] - Three potential outcomes of the Supreme Court's ruling are anticipated: a high probability of declaring the tariffs illegal but possibly delaying the ruling's effect to allow the government time to adjust; a moderate probability of declaring some tariffs illegal while allowing others, such as those on fentanyl; and a low probability of upholding the legality of the tariffs [11][12][34] - If the reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, the overall tariff structure in the U.S. may decline significantly, with a potential 25% reduction in tariff revenue, impacting the trade policy landscape [3][19][29] Group 2 - In response to a potential ruling against the reciprocal tariffs, Trump may resort to existing tariff laws such as Sections 232, 301, and 338, with a short-term reliance on Section 122 for global tariffs [2][35] - The likelihood of comprehensive tariff refunds is low, with targeted refunds being more feasible, as legal principles dictate that remedies must align with the harm suffered by the plaintiffs [18][35] - The current tariff revenue structure shows that reciprocal tariffs account for 45% of total tariff income, with significant contributions from Section 301 and Section 232 tariffs, indicating a complex interplay of tariffs that may be affected by the court's decision [3][19][27] Group 3 - The U.S. effective tariff rate stands at 9.75%, with the highest rates applied to Chinese imports at 40.4%, indicating a significant reliance on tariffs for revenue generation [27][19] - If the reciprocal tariffs are invalidated, the U.S. may struggle to maintain similar levels of tariff revenue, with projections suggesting a drop to approximately $2.554 trillion in annual tariff income [29][31] - The ongoing investigations into Section 232 tariffs cover an import scale of $544.4 billion, with reports expected in the coming months, which could influence future tariff strategies [2][17][35]

Group 1: Major Assets & Overseas Events & Data - Global stock indices mostly declined, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and the Nasdaq down 3.0% [2][3] - The US government ended its shutdown after a bipartisan agreement, affecting 670,000 federal employees [52] - The US ADP employment data for October showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 30,000 [65] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7, while the services PMI rose to 52.4, indicating mixed signals in the economy [61] - The US high-frequency job vacancy numbers and retail index showed a decline, suggesting a slight cooling in consumer activity [67] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar index decreased by 0.2% to 99.55, while major currencies like the euro and yen appreciated against the dollar [25][32] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.0% to $59.8 per barrel, and most commodity prices declined during the week [36][41]

Economic Analysis - The report emphasizes the increasing external instability and uncertainty, highlighting severe challenges to the international economic and trade order [2][20] - The global economic growth momentum has been adjusted from "weak" to "insufficient," indicating heightened concerns about the global economic outlook [2][20] - Domestically, while risks and challenges remain, there is a focus on reinforcing the foundation for economic recovery, with a call to maintain strategic determination and confidence [2][20] Policy Framework - The monetary policy stance has shifted from "implementing detailed moderate easing" to "implementing effective moderate easing," focusing on the effectiveness of policies [3][21] - The report introduces the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, emphasizing coordination with fiscal policy [3][21] - Structural monetary policy tools will be effectively implemented to support key areas such as technological innovation and small and micro enterprises [3][7] Exchange Rate and Risk Management - The report reiterates the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility and enhancing expectation guidance [3][22] - The omission of previous warnings about preventing fund circularity suggests that related risks may have been controlled to some extent [3][22] Financial Indicators - The analysis of financial total indicators indicates that the growth of social financing and money supply is generally aligned with nominal economic growth, with a slight lag in loan growth being reasonable [4][8] - The report discusses the long-term impacts of financial market development and structural changes on monetary total and financial regulation [4][8] Digital Economy Support - The report outlines plans for the next phase of financial support for the digital economy, including the development of a financial technology plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan period [4][23] Interest Rate Relationships - The report highlights the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships across various dimensions, including central bank policy rates and market rates [4][23]

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from -2.3% [9][59] Group 1: Factors Influencing Inflation - Factor 1: The anti-involution effect led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI was limited. In contrast, copper prices, which were less affected by anti-involution, saw a significant increase, contributing 0.2% to the PPI [2][10][60] - Factor 2: The CPI's rise above zero was attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution effect. The food CPI increased by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year [2][17][61] - Factor 3: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core CPI increased to 1.2% year-on-year, with significant price increases in accommodation and travel services due to the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][24][61] Group 2: Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] - Although the low base, steady improvement in service consumption demand, and high gold prices may support core CPI, the limited rebound in CPI for the year is anticipated due to the tapering of national subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI [4][37][62] Group 3: Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables and fruits [5][43][63] - Non-food items such as household appliances and communication tools saw a decline in CPI, with household appliances dropping to 5.0% and communication tools to 1.2% [5][48][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal trends, rising to 0.8% year-on-year [7][52][63]

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