恭贺新春 2026年既是"十五五"的启幕之年，更是经济转型与制度改革全面发力的关键节点。2026年，经济将步入 非典型"复苏"状态，名义GDP修复过程中带动企业盈利改善；由于供需两端的助力，在行业间、企业间分 化明显，结构性特征依然会非常突出。 "反内卷"与"扩内需"将成为打破循环阻滞的核心抓手。 一方面，政策通过"反内卷"遏制低价竞争，修复 企业受损利润表，推动PPI转正与盈利回升；另一方面，政策突出"投资于人"，依托民生保障改革与服务 业开放，或将持续打开服务消费增长空间。为增强内需动能，财政政策仍将靠前发力，加大化债力度以缓 解对投资资金的"挤出效应"，确保固定资产投资，尤其是设备更新领域及数字基建与能源转型等方向投资 稳步修复，激发经济内生动力。 短期来看，2026年A股有望在"顺周期"新叙事下迎来资金"再平衡"的延续。伴随名义GDP修复与资产回报 率预期改善， 资金有望从低利率、高波动的债市向权益市场流动，推动资产价格重估。 尽管外部贸易形 势仍存在不确定性，但国内政策工具箱储备充足、出口结构持续优化，经济发展仍具韧性。资本市场将不 仅反映经济量的增长，更将定价质的提升与盈利的实质性改善，A股有望在 ...

Core Insights - The transformation of the Chinese economy is a critical issue that requires a new analytical framework due to the failure of traditional analysis methods in interpreting current economic phenomena and guiding market investment activities [2] - The transformation process is a complex system project that involves extensive data and requires a clear understanding of economic operation logic while avoiding vague generalizations [2] - Different economic entities have unique endowments and external environments during key transformation stages, necessitating substantial data analysis to approach the truth and identify universal patterns that can provide insights for China's transformation [2] - Structural differentiation during the transformation is significant, breaking traditional economic laws, which means macroeconomic logic must be supported by solid microeconomic foundations [2] Research Focus - The systematic analysis of China's economic transformation and the adjustment of research frameworks under transformation have been a long-standing interest and research direction for the company, spanning nearly a decade of professional experience [4] - The process of learning, thinking, and reconstructing frameworks is a lengthy growth journey, with many issues still requiring further exploration [4] - Deepening the understanding of transformation issues benefits personal development and helps in comprehending recent economic and financial phenomena [4] - The concept of transformation does not follow a fixed model or path; it requires selecting the most suitable direction based on endowment differences [4] - Transformation is a systemic project that extends beyond economic issues, representing a comprehensive overhaul [4] - The transformation process is akin to a "metamorphosis," where choosing the right direction means that slow progress can be more effective than rushing [4]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 重点推介 热点思考：开年经济与政策的"新变化" 1. 开年生产景气有何新变化？ 1月制造业生产景气大幅回落，或与春运返乡前置有关；春运开启后，劳务输出大省的迁入强度、用工 大省的迁出强度上行。但近两月平均看，生产景气仍延续前期的修复态势。 2. 需求层面有何亮点？ 2026年春节滞后于2月拉长节前"抢出口"窗口期，或令年初出口景气延续。内需方面，春节假期偏长叠 加多地提前布局春节消费下，社零或有阶段性反弹；"十五五"适度超前新基建的要求，叠加增量政策的 支撑下，投资或有适度改善。 3. 政策有何积极信号？ 地产最艰难的时段或已过去，多维度政策着力稳定房地产市场运行。多部委加强政策协同，财政与金融 政策联动发力，重点围绕消费、设备投资、民营经济。地方政策部署时点前移，如部分地区"新年第一 会"前置至元旦后，推动全年工作早启动。 热点思考 高频跟踪 1、热点思考 | 日债"豪赌"：选举后"高市财政"的约束——"大财政"系列之四 2、热点思考 | 积极因素正在累积 1、海外高频 | 欧央行2月例会按兵不动，金油共振上涨 2、政策高频 | 中 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - Industrial production has slightly declined, with a small recovery in blast furnace operation rates, which increased by 0.5% week-on-week and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4% [2] - Apparent steel consumption decreased by 5.1% week-on-week and fell by 6.8 percentage points year-on-year to -5.5% [2] - Steel social inventory saw a significant increase, rising by 5.6% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Construction Industry Insights - Cement production showed a slight recovery, but the shipment rate declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.7% and a year-on-year drop of 1.7 percentage points to -7.7% [19] - The cement inventory ratio increased, rising by 2.3% week-on-week and 3.2 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [19] - The average price of cement decreased by 0.8% week-on-week [19] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Patterns - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 1.6% week-on-week but increased by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to -19% [37] - The transaction performance in first-tier and third-tier cities was better than in second-tier cities, with first-tier cities showing a week-on-week increase of 2.7% and a year-on-year recovery of 7.2 percentage points to -29.7% [37] - Port cargo throughput and railway freight volume both showed year-on-year increases, with port container throughput rising by 12.0 percentage points to 14.5% [45] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with pork prices stable, egg prices rising by 0.1%, and vegetable and fruit prices declining by 3.1% and 0.3% respectively [76] - The industrial product price index decreased by 1.8% week-on-week, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.9% and metal prices down by 3.6% [85]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic changes at the beginning of 2026, highlighting the resilience of the economy despite previous downward pressures, with a focus on production, demand, and price trends [8][66]. Economic Monthly Data - Industrial value-added growth is projected to be 4.8% in November 2025, 5.2% in December 2025, and 5.4% in January-February 2026 [2]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by -2.6% in November 2025, -3.8% in December 2025, and -9.8% in January-February 2026 [2]. - Real estate investment is forecasted to drop significantly by -15.9% in November 2025, -17.2% in December 2025, and -31.1% in January-February 2026 [2]. Production Changes - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% in January 2026, indicating a significant drop in production, likely due to the early return of workers during the Spring Festival [3][10]. - Despite the drop in January, the average PMI over the past two months shows a recovery trend, increasing by 0.5 percentage points to 49.7% compared to November 2025 [10]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in the metallurgical chain increased by 2.2 percentage points compared to December 2025, reflecting a recovery in production [14]. Demand Highlights - Export demand is expected to remain strong due to a delayed Spring Festival, extending the "rush for exports" window, with foreign trade cargo volume increasing by 13.9% year-on-year [5][25]. - Social retail sales are projected to see a slight recovery in January-February 2026, with an expected growth of around 1.9% due to the long holiday period and increased service consumption support [31]. Investment Outlook - Investment is anticipated to improve moderately due to supportive policies and increased government debt financing, with a positive outlook for infrastructure investment [6][39]. - The operating rates for asphalt and grinding are expected to maintain resilience, indicating stable investment activity in early 2026 [39]. Price Trends - PPI is expected to show weak recovery, with January PPI projected to rise to -1.4% year-on-year, while CPI is anticipated to exhibit a "V-shaped" trend due to the timing of the Spring Festival [46][56]. - The core CPI is expected to remain low, influenced by weak demand and reduced government subsidies, despite some support from rising gold prices [56].

美国1月就业数据"全面向好"，非农新增13万人，两倍于市场预期，时薪增速韧性，失业率下至4.3%，劳动参与率回升。"满分"的 就业报告是否存在水分、未来就业市场趋势如何？ 一、概览：美国1月非农就业超预期，失业率回落至4.3% 美国1月非农新增13万人，失业率回落至4.3%，就业数据"全面向好"。 机构调查方面，1月美国非农新增就业13万人，市场预期6.5万 人。1月私人部门时薪环比0.4%，市场预期0.3%；家庭调查方面，1月美国失业率回落至4.3%，市场预期4.4%，劳动参与率提升至 62.5%。 年度基准修正落地，2025年月均新增就业仅1.5万人。 "年度基准修正"将2025年3月季调后非农就业下修89.8万人，非季调口径下修 86.2万人（市场预期82.5万人）。经过数据修订后，2025年非农就业新增（季调）从58.4万人下修至18.1万人。 就业数据公布后，美债利率、美元指数、美股均上涨。 北京时间2月11日9:30PM美国1月就业数据公布后，2Y美债利率、10Y美债利 率、美元指数均出现上行，其中10Y美债利率一度突破4.2%；美股上涨，显示市场对于"裁员"担忧消退，金价回落，对应降息预期下 修 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、 耿佩璇 事件： 2月11日，国家统计局公布1月通胀数据，CPI同比0.2%、前值0.8%、预期0.4%、环比0.2%；PPI同 比-1.4%、前值-1.9%、预期-1.5%、环比0.4%。 核心观点：1月通胀分化，背后源于春节错位、输入性因素拉动提升，需求偏弱共同影响 1月PPI降幅明显收窄，主因铜价对PPI的拉动进一步增加，基期轮换也有一定程度的影响。 1月PPI环比 0.4%，同比上行0.5个百分点至-1.4%。我国价格指数每五年进行一次基期轮换，2026年开始为新一轮基 期轮换调整，但对每月PPI同比的影响仅为0.08个百分点。更重要的是，1月铜价涨幅扩大，相应有色采 选、有色压延业价格环比分别5.7%、5.2%， 拉动PPI环比0.5% ，为最强贡献项。钢价对PPI贡献也为 正， 拉动PPI环比0.1%。 相比之下，煤油等大宗商品价格、中下游PPI表现偏弱。 国际原油价格下行影响国内石油开采、精炼石 油产品制造价格分别下降3.1%和2.5%， 油价拖累PPI环比-0.08% ，煤价也有走弱， 拖累PPI环比-0.15% 。中下游产能利用率也未明显改善，导致上游涨 ...

Group 1 - The most difficult period for the real estate sector may have passed, with supply and demand pressures easing. Recent data shows a marginal recovery in supply and demand, with the year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction area narrowing by over 5 percentage points to -14.7% in the last 3-4 weeks before the festival. The decline in government fund revenue also narrowed to -11.7% [3][47][48] - Various supportive policies are continuously being implemented to stabilize the real estate market. Regulatory focus has shifted towards risk management and livelihood protection, with some companies no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly. Out-of-risk companies must report key financial indicators and progress on debt resolution [3][17][47] - Local governments are launching breakthrough policies to support the acquisition of second-hand housing for rental purposes, with Shanghai's pilot program serving as a significant example. The program aims to acquire small second-hand apartments under 70 square meters in specific districts [3][48][19] Group 2 - Multiple ministries are enhancing policy coordination, with fiscal and financial policies working together to support three key areas: consumption, equipment investment, and the private economy. In January, the net financing scale of government bonds increased by over 280 billion yuan year-on-year, with a significant reduction in the proportion used for debt repayment [4][20][49] - The central bank and the Ministry of Finance have announced measures to expand interest subsidies and reduce financing costs for market entities. The National Venture Capital Fund is directed to invest early, small, long-term, and in hard technology sectors [4][25][49] - Other departments, including commerce and human resources, are also strengthening collaboration to stimulate service consumption. A new work plan was issued to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, focusing on sectors like retail, catering, and tourism [5][27][50] Group 3 - Local governments are proactively advancing economic work, moving away from a wait-and-see attitude. Some regions have scheduled their first meetings of the year immediately after New Year's Day to kickstart annual work [6][51][32] - By the end of January, 20 provinces and cities had disclosed their GDP targets for 2026, with a weighted average of 5.1%. Major provinces like Guangdong and Henan expressed positive outlooks, emphasizing the pursuit of better results in actual work [6][35][51] - The upcoming Spring Festival will be the longest in history, making holiday consumption a key driver for first-quarter domestic demand and a foundation for economic recovery throughout the year. Policies are shifting from traditional physical consumption stimulation to a balanced focus on both physical and service consumption [7][42][52]

政策基调：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。 货币政策基调上，《报告》延续"适度宽松的货币政策"，重申对物价的重视与"灵活高效运用降准降息等 多种政策工具"，与中央经济工作会议精神一致。 物价作为供需信号被重点关注，货币政策与增长、物 价的关联更清晰。"灵活高效"表明央行紧盯宏观运行，将在关键时点精准发力，熨平经济波动。1月，央 行行长潘功胜也表示"今年降准降息还有一定的空间"。 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 2026年2月10日，央行发布2025年四季度货币政策执行报告（以下简称《报告》）。 经济形势分析：外部通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性；要支持"十五五"实现良好开局 外部形势判断上，《报告》突出强调"外部环境变化影响加深"，新增"通胀走势与货币政策调整存在不确 定性"表述，体现央行对四季度以来国际环境复杂性的担忧加剧。 相较三季度报告"外部不稳定不确定性 因素较多，国际经济贸易秩序遇到严峻挑战"的表述，四季度报告更聚焦贸易秩序变化对全球通胀及货币 政策的深层影响。 国内经济形势评估上，《报告》更侧重内需，提出"把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of cultivating future industries to seize technological and industrial advantages, enhance modern industrial systems, and improve people's quality of life [2] - The focus is on the strategic, forward-looking, and disruptive characteristics of future industries, which require tailored development based on national strategic needs and technological maturity [2] - The article highlights the need for collaboration between emerging and traditional industries, leveraging the advantages of a new type of national system and the role of enterprises in driving innovation [2] Group 2 - The Central Document No. 1 outlines the goal of agricultural modernization and comprehensive rural revitalization, emphasizing the enhancement of agricultural production capacity and the implementation of precise assistance measures [4] - Key targets include stabilizing grain production at around 1.4 trillion jin, improving agricultural technology innovation, and ensuring farmers' stable income through various support mechanisms [4][5] - The document also stresses the importance of building beautiful and livable rural areas through infrastructure improvements and ecological protection [4][5] Group 3 - The "Happy New Year" initiative aims to stimulate consumption during the Spring Festival, focusing on six key areas including food, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping, and entertainment [6] - The initiative includes measures such as prize invoices, subsidies for replacing old products, and financial incentives to encourage consumer spending [6][7] Group 4 - The State Council's press conference elaborated on the Central Document No. 1, highlighting four key tasks and two major support guarantees for rural revitalization [8] - The tasks include enhancing agricultural production capacity, implementing regular assistance, promoting farmers' income stability, and advancing rural construction [8][9] Group 5 - The market regulatory authority has outlined six key areas of focus to support high-quality economic development, including promoting a unified national market and optimizing the consumer environment [10] - The regulatory efforts will also address platform economy governance and enhance quality standards across various sectors [10][11] Group 6 - Shanghai has initiated a pilot program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental projects, targeting young professionals and new residents [12] - The program aims to match housing supply with demand effectively, ensuring a balance between work and living conditions for talent in the city [12][13]