Core Viewpoint - The CPI rebound in November is primarily influenced by structural factors, and after excluding these disturbances, both CPI and PPI remain weak [2][8][71] CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 0.7%, driven by a low base and reduced supply in certain categories, particularly food [2][8][71] - Food prices rose, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant increases of 21.8% and 2.7% respectively, while pork prices remained low at -15% year-on-year [2][8][71] - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, largely supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year [2][8][72] PPI Analysis - The PPI in November recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [7][45] - Factors influencing PPI include rising coal prices due to anti-involution policies, which increased by 9.5% month-on-month, contributing 0.3% to the PPI [3][35][73] - However, the decline in steel and oil prices negatively impacted the PPI, leading to an overall weak performance in downstream prices [3][35][73] Service CPI Insights - The service CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% in November, with weak demand for travel and further declines in rental prices [3][25][62] - The core service CPI decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, primarily due to reduced travel demand post-holiday, affecting hotel and flight prices [3][25][62] Future Outlook - There is potential for further increases in commodity prices, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize, leading to a moderate recovery in inflation [4][41] - The CPI is expected to see a mild rebound due to low base effects and high gold prices, but constraints from reduced government subsidies and rising youth unemployment may limit the extent of this rebound [4][41] Regular Tracking - The November CPI rebound was significantly driven by food items, with food CPI rising by 3.1 percentage points to 0.2% year-on-year [5][50][74] - Non-food CPI categories such as household appliances and communication tools experienced declines, with respective decreases of -0.1% and -1.9% [5][55][74] - Overall service CPI showed a marginal decline, with core service CPI performing worse than seasonal trends [5][62][74]

低利率环境下，海外债市的调整往往快速且迅猛，有三大特征 ： 1）调整幅度较大，美、德、法、日的 平均调整幅度分别为81、53、59、74bp；2）调整速度较快，这些调整通常发生在1-2个月内；3）调整往 往伴随期限溢价走高，美法日的10Y国债利率回调幅度明显大于2Y国债。 此外，债券"凸性"会放大低利率下的市场波动 。 利率下行会导致久期非线性拉长，价格敏感度显著上 升。这种"不对称"机制使低利率区间内，同样利率反弹带来的资本损失远超高利率区间。测算显示，低 利率下30Y国债反转时的价格跌幅约为高利率下的1.7倍，回撤压力剧增。 （二）"高波动"的陷阱背后？一致预期演绎到极致，宏观环境变化下出现反噬 海外经验显示，低利率环境下债市依然保持较高波动、且调整中易出现1-2月内调整50-100bp的现象，我 们将其称为低利率下的"高波动"陷阱。这或是当下市场普遍忽视的另一个"盲点"。 （一）海外经验"镜鉴"？"低利率"环境下，存在"高波动"陷阱 海外经验显示，低利率并非债市低波动的"避风港"。 1）以美债为例，10Y美债利率与波动率的关系存在 结构性断裂，1990年后美债"利率走低则波动收窄"的规律失效。2）美国以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in exports in November is primarily supported by the dissipation of short-term supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand [3][10][82] Export Data Summary - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3% and recovering from a decline of 1.1% in October [2][9][82] - The rebound in exports is attributed to factors such as an increase in working days and the reduction of "production rush" effects, which had previously impacted supply [3][10][82] - The increase in working days in November (up by 2 days year-on-year) contributed significantly to the export recovery [3][10][82] Country-Level Analysis - Regions that previously experienced significant supply shocks saw notable rebounds in exports in November, indicating that the easing of supply disruptions was a key driver [3][21][82] - Exports to emerging economies showed a clear recovery in November, with exports to Africa and Latin America increasing by 17.1 and 12.8 percentage points, respectively [3][21][82] - Despite the rebound, there was no significant improvement in demand from these emerging economies, as indicated by stable PMI readings in South Africa and Brazil [3][21][82] Commodity Export Trends - Commodities that had previously shown significant export volatility also experienced a notable recovery in November, with food, steel, and auto parts exports rebounding sharply [4][29][83] - The export growth rates for consumer electronics and light industrial products also improved significantly in November after substantial declines in October [4][29][83] Import Data Summary - Imports in November increased by 1.9% year-on-year, recovering from a previous expectation of 2.9% [2][9][82] - Processing trade imports saw a significant rise of 9.2 percentage points to 13.9%, indicating a recovery in trade performance due to the easing of supply disruptions [4][37][82] - Major commodities such as crude oil and electromechanical products also showed improved import growth rates in November [4][37][82] Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions, combined with ongoing improvements in external demand and China's competitive export advantages, is expected to support exports for the remainder of the year [5][45][46] - The potential for improved exports to the U.S. is bolstered by the easing of tariffs and the possibility of inventory replenishment in the U.S. market [5][45][46] - Continued industrialization in emerging markets is anticipated to drive demand for intermediate and capital goods, further supporting China's export performance [5][45][46] Regular Tracking - November saw a general recovery in both exports and imports, with notable increases in consumer electronics and light industrial products [6][71][82] - Capital goods exports showed mixed results, with intermediate goods like auto parts and integrated circuits experiencing growth [6][59][68] - Exports to non-U.S. developed economies and emerging markets showed positive trends, while exports to the U.S. declined [6][68][71]

报告正文 事件： 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法 治国工作条例》。 政治局会议在基调上有何亮点？统筹经济工作和经贸斗争、重视政策效果和经济增长 会议重提2025年4月政治局会议首提的"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，凸显对外部环境不确定性的 关注与内部发展稳定性的重视。 这一表述在2024年12月会议"更好统筹发展和安全"基础上深化延伸，既体现 对内外双重任务的统筹考量，也与"十五五"规划建议的形势判断相契合，精准呼应"以国内循环的稳定性对冲 国际循环的不确定性"的核心要求。 会议以"提质增效"替代"以进促稳"，凸显对政策质量、效率与可持续性的平衡考量。 会议延续提出"继续实施 更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，更强调"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"。2026年财政政策 或将保持扩张取向并优化支出结构。中性情景预期赤字率维持在4%左右，特别国债与新增专项债规模较2025 年小幅扩张；货币政策更注重流动性呵护，结构上以精准支持为核心，预计央行可能实施1次幅度约10BP的降 息。 会议提出"推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"，锚定 ...

二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国公布《国家安全战略》 多数发达国家国债利率大幅上行，有色价格大涨。 当周，标普500上涨0.3%，纳指上涨0.9%；10Y美债收 益率上行12.0bp至4.14%；美元指数下跌0.5%至98.98，离岸人民币升至7.0691；WTI原油上涨2.6%至60.1 美元/桶，COMEX黄金下跌0.6%至4197.6美元/盎司。 美国公布《国家安全战略》，系统阐述特朗普政府第二任期的外交与安全优先事项。 新战略将把保护美 国国土与西半球安全置于首位。对欧洲的衰落、人口变化持批评态度，要求欧洲必须为自身国防承担主 要成本；中东重要性被下调，强调避免再次卷入长期地面战争。 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国公布《国家安全战略》 （一）大类资产：多数发达国家国债利率大幅上行，有色价格大涨 当周，发达市场股指多数上涨、新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指方面，德国DAX、纳指、恒生 指数各上涨0.9%，英国富时100、法国CAC40分别下跌0.6%、0.1%；新兴市场股指方面，韩国综合指数、开 罗CASE30、胡志明指数分别上涨4.4%、3.6%、3.0%，巴西IBOVESPA指数、伊斯坦布尔 ...

摘要 2025年中以来，美国新增非农就业"断崖式"下滑，失业上行风险有所增加。美国就业市场缘何"大逆 转"、AI的"替代效应"有多大？2026年，美国"无就业的增长"会否延续？ 一、热点思考：大逆转与再平衡——2026年美国就业市场展望 （一）AI与就业：创造还是毁灭？"结构性冲击"有所体现，但整体拖累有限 AI对美国就业市场的"需求冲击"引发市场关注，但目前主要是结构性的。 美国企业AI的采用率已从2年 前的3.7%升至10%（2025年9月）；10月挑战者裁员数达15.3万个，同比提升175%，其中21.7%来自科技 行业；归纳而言，AI的结构性冲击或集中体现在三大方面：高AI暴露度行业、职场年轻群体、高薪职 位。 但整体而言，AI或并非2025年美国就业转弱的主要原因。 主要依据是：1）2023年以来，AI 采用率提升 幅度与就业增速变化的负向相关性较弱（R²= 0.09）；2）居民职业结构调整尚未出现加速迹象；3）在应 用AI的企业中，企业更倾向重新"培训"员工，而非裁员。 （二）2025年美国就业"大逆转"的主因：移民、政府裁员影响或更大 回顾2025年，美国就业市场供需双双走弱，表现为"低招聘、低 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、深度专题 | 2026年：财政货币政策展望 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 日本宽财政，市场忽视了什么？ 高频跟踪 1、数据点评 | PMI修复的"短期掣肘"？ 2、海外高频 | 美国9月零售弱于预期，黄金白银大幅上涨 电话会议 1、"周见系列" 第59期: 《2026年财政收支展望》 2、"洞见系列" 第103期: 《日本资财政，市场然视了什么?》 第104期: 《2026年:财政货市政策展望》 3、"速见系列" 第14期: 《每周热点》 第15期: 《每周热点》 深度专题 1 深度专题 | 2026年：财政货币政策展望 点击看全文 深度专题 2025.12.2 "十五五"开局之年，财政货币政策预计强化协同、优化结构、深化改革。 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 日本宽财政，市场忽视了什么？ 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.12.1 "宽财政+紧货币"组合可能触发套息交易反转，需警惕美日货币政策的分化与转向。 11 . 2 9 - 1 2 . 5 周度研究成果 高 频 ...

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、李欣 越 、王茂宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国9月零售弱于预期，黄金白银大幅上涨 权益资产悉数上涨，黄金白银大幅上涨。 当周，标普500上涨3.7%，纳斯达克指数上涨4.9%；10Y美债收 益率下行4.0bp至4.02%；美元指数下跌0.7%至99.44，离岸人民币升至7.0713；WTI原油上涨0.8%至58.6美 元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨3.4%至4223.9美元/盎司。 特朗普签署 "创世纪计划"，在十年内将美国科研生产力翻倍。 11 月 24 日，特朗普签署 "创世纪计划" 行 政令，要求由能源部牵头整合国内超算和数据资源，联合科技巨头打造美国科学与安全平台。但行政令 本身并未给出具体预算数字，也未设置单列的拨款条款。 美联储公布最新褐皮书，美国9月零售弱于预期。 11月褐皮书指出就业略有下降，招聘活动的减少是降 低劳动力需求的主要渠道，而非大规模裁员；美国9月零售销售环比0.2%，弱于市场预期，可能受到劳动 节假期提前消费影响；联储GDPNow显示美国三季度经济或增长3.9%。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic stimulus plan introduced by Prime Minister Kishi Sanae, which is expected to weaken the yen and increase inflationary pressures in Japan. The combination of expansive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy may lead to risks of a reversal in carry trade, necessitating caution regarding the divergence in monetary policies between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve [2][8]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - Kishi Sanae's economic stimulus plan amounts to 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD), slightly exceeding market expectations of 17 trillion yen. The fiscal deficit rate for Japan is projected to rise significantly in 2026 [3][9]. - The stimulus plan focuses on three main areas: 55% for inflation subsidies and social welfare (11.7 trillion yen), 34% for strategic industry investments (7.2 trillion yen), and 8% for defense and diplomacy (1.7 trillion yen) [3][15]. Group 2: Impact on GDP and Inflation - The expansive fiscal policy may raise Japan's GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2026, which is lower than the contributions expected from the US (0.6 points) and Germany (0.63 points). The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase by 1.77 percentage points in Japan, compared to 1.0 points in the US and 0.84 points in Germany [4][23]. - While the inflation subsidies may temporarily lower the overall CPI growth by 0.7 percentage points in early 2026, they could simultaneously increase core inflation pressures in the medium term due to rising real incomes and a weaker yen [4][29]. Group 3: Risks of Carry Trade Reversal - The combination of high inflation and a weak yen makes it difficult for Kishi's expansive fiscal policy to coexist with the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy. Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan suggest a potential shift towards interest rate hikes [5][35]. - The divergence between the yen and US dollar interest rates, with the yen reaching a low of 157.9 against the dollar while the US-Japan 2-year interest rate spread narrows to around 2.5%, indicates that the market has priced in risks associated with Japan's fiscal expansion [5][41]. - The current conditions suggest a potential for a reversal in carry trade, although the impact may be milder compared to August 2024. Factors such as net short positions in the yen, the degree of divergence between exchange rates and interest rates, volatility, and triggering conditions should be monitored [5][47].