Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence among major institutions regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding GDP growth predictions, which range from 0.8% to 2.9% [2][7][75]. Group 1: Disagreements on U.S. Economic Outlook - There is a notable disagreement among 74 research institutions regarding the U.S. GDP growth for 2026, with 65% predicting an increase, 27% forecasting a decline, and 8% expecting stability [2][7][75]. - The main reasons for optimism include fiscal and monetary easing, while concerns revolve around tariffs, inflation, employment, and fiscal debt [2][13][75]. - The most significant divergence is observed in fiscal policy assessments, with a total of 26 mentions and a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 15:11, indicating worries about potential overextension of policies [2][19][75]. Group 2: Misconceptions Among Institutions - A common misconception is that the "Beautiful Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts with limited incremental effects; however, it actually increases the tax cut intensity, with an expected overall tax reduction of 40% in 2026 compared to 2025 [3][25][76]. - Another misconception is that the effects of the tax cuts will be reflected in 2025; in reality, the benefits will manifest in the first half of 2026, particularly around April when tax refunds peak [3][31][76]. - It is also mistakenly believed that the act has already exhausted corporate cash flows, leading to a lack of investment in 2026; however, the act includes provisions that allow companies to benefit from past investments without requiring new expenditures [3][37][76]. Group 3: Potential Economic Growth in 2026 - The first half of 2026 is expected to see a tax refund surge, potentially increasing total refunds by about 30% to reach $412 billion, with per capita refunds rising by $700 to $1,000 to approximately $3,743 [4][43][77]. - The high consumer propensity to spend in the U.S. (46%) suggests that the tax cuts could quickly translate into GDP growth [4][49][77]. - In the second half of 2026, additional fiscal measures are anticipated, particularly in defense and infrastructure, with defense spending projected to rise by 10.4% and border infrastructure spending increasing by 65% [4][61][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of equipment investment in 2024, attributing it to structural factors such as the growth of broad infrastructure and service sector investments rather than solely relying on the "Juglar cycle" and "two new" policies [2][3]. Group 1: Equipment Investment Insights - The strong growth in equipment investment is driven by the establishment of a modern industrial system, with significant contributions from the energy transition in central and western regions, which boosts public utility equipment investment [2][3]. - The increase in fiscal spending on research and the improvement in travel chain demand have led to a higher growth rate in service-related equipment investments [2][3]. Group 2: Sustainability of Equipment Investment - Equipment investment is expected to continue its high growth into 2026, supported by policies focused on modern industrial system construction, "dual carbon" initiatives, and investments in human capital [3]. - Digital infrastructure, hub-related investments, and carbon reduction equipment are anticipated to rebound, while resilient external demand is expected to sustain equipment investment related to exports [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the early meetings held by various regions after the New Year, focusing on their different priorities for the year ahead and the potential economic space in early 2026, providing insights for tracking and assessment [1]. Group 1: Central Government Initiatives - The central government has increased investment ahead of schedule, with the National Development and Reform Commission issuing a list of early construction projects for 2026, totaling 295 billion yuan, an increase of 95 billion yuan compared to 2025 [2][9]. - The "two heavy" projects will receive 220 billion yuan, focusing on urban underground pipelines and high-standard farmland, while central budget investments exceed 75 billion yuan, targeting urban renewal and water conservancy [2][9]. - The "old-for-new" policy has been refined, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in special long-term bonds issued to support this initiative, with changes in subsidy structures for automobiles and home appliances [3][12]. Group 2: Local Government Responses - Many regions have moved their "New Year First Meetings" to after New Year's Day, emphasizing early initiation of key work for the year, contrasting with 2025 when most meetings were held after the Spring Festival [4][16]. - Regions like Shanghai and Fujian focus on optimizing the business environment and boosting confidence in the private economy, with specific measures to eliminate market entry barriers and address overdue payments [19][20]. - Core cities such as Hubei, Nanjing, and Suzhou are concentrating on cultivating new productivity, while Zhejiang and Henan are focusing on stabilizing investment to support growth [21][46]. Group 3: Economic Potential and Tracking Indicators - The postponement of the Spring Festival by 19 days in 2026 creates a pattern of "heavy production and investment in January, heavy consumption in February," aligning with the central government's emphasis on early economic stability [5][22]. - Since 2019, the proportion of actual GDP in the first quarter has increased annually by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting the importance of early economic performance [26]. - Local government debt issuance plans indicate a potential increase of approximately 340 billion yuan in January 2026 compared to the previous year, with 257.78 billion yuan planned for issuance [35][41].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of innovation-driven development and the integration of technology and industry to enhance productivity and competitiveness in various sectors [1][2] - Key government leaders have been conducting local investigations to outline strategies for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on technological innovation, green transformation, and ensuring food security [1][2] - The government is prioritizing the development of new industries, smart technologies, and green initiatives to foster sustainable economic growth [1][2] Group 2 - The "Zhong Caiping" series of articles published in the People's Daily outlines economic work directives, emphasizing the need for localized economic strategies and the importance of consumer demand and investment [3][4] - The articles advocate for a coordinated approach to macroeconomic policies, including a moderately loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures to stimulate growth [3][4] - The focus is on enhancing living standards and expanding domestic consumption as a key driver for economic recovery [3][4] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has outlined its 2026 work plan, which includes maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy and reducing financing costs for businesses to support economic development [6][7] - The plan emphasizes the importance of financial services in supporting the real economy, particularly in areas like consumer services and technological innovation [6][7] Group 4 - A notification from nine departments aims to promote green consumption, outlining tasks such as increasing the supply of green products and enhancing recycling systems [8][9] - The initiative includes developing green services and optimizing the consumption environment to encourage sustainable practices among consumers [8][9] Group 5 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has issued guidelines to improve housing quality, focusing on standards, design, and the use of green materials [10][11] - The guidelines aim to promote smart construction and enhance the lifecycle management of housing to ensure safety and sustainability [10][11] Group 6 - An action plan for "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" has been released, focusing on enhancing AI capabilities and expanding its application in various industries [12][13] - The plan includes fostering innovation, optimizing the industrial ecosystem, and ensuring safety in AI applications [12][13] Group 7 - A joint opinion from four departments aims to enhance cultural and sports consumption among workers, promoting various activities and improving the overall consumption environment [14][15] - The initiative encourages the development of cultural events and sports activities to meet the spiritual and cultural needs of workers [14][15]

Core Viewpoints - The widening gap between M2 and M1 growth rates is primarily due to the "misalignment" in government debt financing and the increasing stability of residents' capital market allocations [1][52] - In December 2025, the M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.5%, while the new M1 growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.8% [42][51] - The government bond net financing in December 2025 decreased by 10,733 billion yuan, which is a significant factor dragging down social financing [23][52] Government Debt and Financing - The misalignment in government debt financing at the end of the year is the primary factor affecting social financing, with a notable decrease in government bonds issued [2][23] - The issuance of local government refinancing bonds concentrated at the end of 2024 and the front-loading of fiscal efforts in 2025 contributed to this misalignment [23][52] - In January 2026, 24 provinces and cities planned to issue 2,577.8 billion yuan in new debt, which is an increase of 1,356.8 billion yuan compared to January 2025 [2][23] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The central bank introduced two new policies: a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and enhancements to these tools to increase support for private, technological, and green sectors [26][28] - Following the interest rate cut on January 15, 2026, the one-year re-lending rate decreased from 1.5% to 1.25% [26][28] - The new structural monetary policy tools are expected to guide banks in credit allocation and stabilize net interest margins, creating room for future interest rate cuts [28][54] Credit and Loan Trends - In December 2025, new credit totaled 9,100 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 800 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in household loans [29][55] - Household loans decreased by 4,416 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, influenced by low employment prospects and fluctuations in real estate prices [15][29] - Corporate medium and long-term loans saw a rebound for the first time in 31 months, with an increase of 3,300 billion yuan in December 2025, attributed to the impact of new policy financial tools [18][53]

Core Viewpoint - The December export performance was supported by pricing effects, new product launches, and improvements in external demand, with exports increasing by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, surpassing expectations of 2.2% and the previous value of 5.9% [2][9][79] Group 1: Export Performance - December exports showed a 0.7 percentage point increase from November, reflecting both structural and aggregate factors, with a notable appreciation of the RMB since November contributing to a 0.4 percentage point increase in export value [2][10][79] - The export growth was driven by strong performance in consumer electronics and production materials, influenced by the launch of new mobile devices and improvements in external demand from emerging economies and U.S. inventory replenishment [2][3][10] - Exports to emerging economies remained robust, with a 1.4 percentage point increase to 13.5% year-on-year, while exports to developed economies showed a decline, particularly a 1.5% drop to the U.S. and a 3.3% drop to Europe [2][17][66] Group 2: Commodity Analysis - Consumer electronics exports rose significantly by 16.3 percentage points to 19.6%, with mobile phone exports boosted by new product launches from companies like Huawei [3][25][79] - Production materials such as aluminum, integrated circuits, and steel saw export growth rates of 23.9%, 13.6%, and 3.5% respectively, indicating a continued demand from emerging economies and a shift in import shares towards China [3][25][79] - Import data showed a 3.8 percentage point increase in December, with processing trade imports rising by 2.9 percentage points to 16.8%, reflecting ongoing improvements in exports [32][80] Group 3: Future Outlook - The export competitiveness of China is expected to remain strong into 2026, supported by the industrialization of emerging economies and potential easing of U.S.-China tariff conflicts, which may lead to a rebound in exports to the U.S. [4][40][41] - The ongoing improvements in external demand and the increase in China's global export share suggest that exports will maintain resilience in the coming years [4][40][41] Group 4: Regular Tracking - December saw a general strengthening in both exports and imports, with consumer electronics exports rebounding while light industrial product exports declined [5][51][68] - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports exhibited a divergence in growth rates, with energy resource exports showing a recovery [5][54][68]

Overview - The overall CPI for December in the US met expectations, while the core CPI was slightly weaker than anticipated, primarily due to weak performance in the goods sector. The December CPI year-on-year was 2.7% and month-on-month was 0.3%, aligning with market expectations. However, the core CPI year-on-year was 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7%, and month-on-month was 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.3% [1][5][43]. Structure - Vehicle inflation significantly weakened, with new and used car prices showing month-on-month changes of 0% and -1.1%, respectively, which had a considerable negative impact. In contrast, clothing, furniture, and toy prices, which are sensitive to tariffs, showed some month-on-month improvement, indicating that tariff transmission may still have room to operate. Statistical biases, such as double-month samples and holiday effects, may have influenced inflation but to a lesser extent than market expectations [2][18][44]. - Core service inflation in December saw an uptick, particularly in rent and super core services. The rent CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in December, up from 0.2% in September, although future rent inflation is expected to return to a cooling trend. Non-rent services, including medical and transportation services, also experienced inflation increases, with airfares rising to 5.2%, reflecting robust consumer demand in the US [24][44]. Outlook - In the first half of 2026, US inflation may still exhibit "stickiness," but a transition to a "disinflation" phase is anticipated in the second half. The implementation of tax cuts in early 2026 is expected to gradually boost household income, consumption, and inflation, thereby enhancing the final mile of tariff transmission. However, as the impact of tax cuts diminishes in the latter half of 2026 and the first-year tariff transmission concludes, inflation is projected to begin a sustained decline [29][34][45]. - The Federal Reserve's response function indicates that inflation is not currently the primary concern, and the pace of interest rate cuts may be "delayed." The Fed is expected to adopt a "data-dependent" approach in 2026, with potential rate cuts contingent on economic data showing significant weakness. The impact of the "Inflation Reduction Act" tax cuts on the economy and inflation will likely influence the timing of any rate cuts [34][45].

Group 1: Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces has improved slightly, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year rise of 1.3 percentage points to 2.2% [1][4] - Apparent steel consumption has decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 0.6% and a year-on-year drop of 1.5 percentage points to 0.6% [1][6] - Steel social inventory continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.5% [1] Group 2: Chemical and Automotive Industries - In the chemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash has significantly increased, with a week-on-week rise of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points to -2.2% [10][11] - The operating rate of PTA has also improved, with a week-on-week increase of 3.2% and a year-on-year rise of 4.1 percentage points to -4.2% [10][14] - The automotive sector shows weaker performance, with the operating rate of semi-steel tires declining by 2.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 2.8 percentage points to -13% [10] Group 3: Construction Industry - The cement production and demand have marginally improved, with a week-on-week increase in grinding operating rate of 2.1% and a year-on-year rise of 5.2 percentage points to 9.9% [22][23] - Cement shipment rates have slightly decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 1.5% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points to 0.5% [22][26] - Cement inventory continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points to 1.3% [22][29] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased by 47.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 13.6 percentage points to 38.4% [44][45] - The transaction volume in first-tier and second-tier cities remains weak, with week-on-week declines of 30.8% and 61.9% respectively [44][48][51] - Port cargo throughput has also declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6 percentage points to -0.4% [56][63] Group 5: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices show differentiation, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively, while egg prices increased by 1.4% [98][99] - The industrial product price index has risen by 1.7% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 0.7% and the metal price index rising by 3.9% [110][111]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the economic "temperature difference" at the end of 2025, highlighting a divergence between macro indicators like PMI and micro indicators such as production and consumption [2][4][10] - At the end of 2025, production indicators such as high furnace operation and PTA operation showed a decline, while manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1% in December [2][10] - Consumer high-frequency indicators continued to decline at the end of 2025, yet the overall consumer goods industry PMI rose to 50.4%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors like textiles and apparel [20][10] Group 2 - Investment indicators such as asphalt operation rates and cement shipment rates did not show significant improvement, but the construction industry PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8% at the end of 2025 [3][32][10] - The article identifies three reasons for the divergence in macro and micro indicators: the shift in economic growth momentum, the risk of demand overextension in consumer sectors, and the impact of previous debt issues on investment rhythms [4][5][44][67] Group 3 - The article anticipates that service consumption and new infrastructure investments will contribute more than expected to the economy at the beginning of 2026, despite pressures on commodity consumption due to the tapering of "old-for-new" policies [6][78][82] - The easing of the debt impact on investment is expected to lead to a rebound in broad infrastructure and service sector investments in early 2026, with a focus on digital infrastructure and carbon reduction investments [82][86] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 is projected to extend the "export rush" window, potentially boosting January export figures [105][110]

摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：海外风险偏好集体回升，地缘冲击下金油大涨 海外风险偏好集体回升，地缘冲击下金油大涨。 当周，标普500上涨1.6%，纳斯达克指数上涨1.9%；美 债下行1.0bp至4.18%；美元指数上涨0.7%至99.14，离岸人民币升至6.9760；WTI原油上涨3.1%至59.1美 元/桶，COMEX金价格上涨3.6%至4473.0美元/盎司。 美国TGA余额降低，美债净发行规模回落。 截至1月7日，美国TGA余额降至7836亿美元；本周（12月31 日-1月7日），美债净发行规模下降，15日滚动净发行额降至-27.03亿美元。美国2025日历年累计财政赤 字规模1.82万亿，低于2024年同期的1.91万亿美元。 美国12月失业率回落至4.4%，12月ISM制造业PMI弱于预期。 美国12月非农就业新增5万人，弱于市场 预期，但失业率回落至4.4，劳动力供给收紧或是非农、失业率分化的主因。美国2025年12月ISM制造业 PMI为47.9，连续第三个月下滑。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰"。 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：海外风险偏好 ...