Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the global bond market, particularly focusing on the U.S. Treasury market, and highlights the misinterpretations by the market regarding the underlying risks and economic policies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Turmoil - The recent turmoil in the global bond market has led to a "triple whammy" in the U.S. markets, triggered by geopolitical tensions and significant investment withdrawals, such as the Danish pension fund's exit from U.S. Treasuries [2]. - The market is experiencing liquidity shocks, with notable events like Trump's statements at the Davos Forum contributing to temporary market stabilization [2]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Risks - Short-term risks associated with U.S. Treasuries are deemed manageable; however, fundamental issues remain unresolved, with projections indicating that the deficit rate could rise to 6.8% due to reduced political motivation for fiscal tightening and increased supply-side investments [3]. - Long-term risks include potential tariff impacts and geopolitical tensions instigated by the U.S., which may undermine the perceived safety of U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 3: Policy Expectations - The article suggests that conventional monetary policy measures, such as Quantitative Easing (QE) or Yield Curve Control (YCC), are unlikely to be employed by the Federal Reserve to lower Treasury yields, especially in a non-war or non-zero interest rate environment [4]. - Trump may consider implementing "structural" financial repression measures to lower real interest rates as a response to debt risks, but the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [4].

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 耿佩璇 摘要 事件：1月27日统计局公布2025年12月工业企业效益数据，营业收入累计同比1.1%、前值1.6%；利润累计同比0.6%、前值0.1%。12月末，产成品存货同比 3.9%、前值4.6%。 核心观点：12月利润明显回升，更多源自其他损益项的拉动，与8月利润表现相近。 总体：12月利润同比有所回升，主因并非营收和成本率的贡献，反弹较大的是其他损益，与8月走势较为相近。 12月工业企业利润当月同比回升18.5个百分点 至5.1%。从影响因素看，利润率对利润增速的拉动上行21.7个百分点至8.6%；其中成本率贡献较小，而其他损益项等短期指标对利润的拉动较大，较前月上 行23.4个百分点至18.3%。与8月情况相似，彼时其他损益等对利润同比的拉动也较前月大幅上行24.8个百分点至18.3%。 行业：12月个别行业利润走强对本月利润的拉动较大，背后或与其他收益等短期指标改善有关，也与8月行业层面的利润表现相似。 12月，有色加工、煤炭 采选等行业利润大幅回升，单个行业利润拉动整体利润回升5.7、4个百分点至5.4%、1.8%。从影响因素看，上述行业的营业收入、成本压力并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the US financial markets, characterized by a simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, while highlighting the underlying issues of debt expansion and geopolitical risks that remain unresolved despite temporary market stabilization following Trump's statements at the Davos Forum [2][4][7]. Group 1: Market Turmoil and Immediate Responses - On January 20, a "triple kill" occurred in the US markets, with collective sell-offs in US, European, and Japanese bonds, leading to a drop in risk assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold [3][8]. - Key triggers for this market turmoil included concerns over US-EU trade disputes, a Danish pension fund's exit from US debt investments, and rising fiscal risks in Japan [13][19]. - Trump's remarks at the Davos Forum on January 21 helped to temporarily ease market fears by ruling out military action over Greenland and announcing a framework agreement with Europe [19][20]. Group 2: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The US fiscal deficit is projected to continue rising, with the 2026 deficit rate expected to reach 6.8%, driven by increased defense spending and immigration enforcement costs [4][66]. - Political motivations for fiscal tightening have weakened, with both parties showing a consensus on fiscal expansion, which may lead to a sustained increase in the deficit regardless of electoral outcomes [26][66]. - Geopolitical risks and tariff concerns are likely to persist, with Trump potentially using alternative tariff measures even if existing ones are deemed illegal [37][66]. Group 3: Structural Financial Measures - To mitigate debt risks, Trump may implement "structural" financial repression measures aimed at lowering real interest rates, as the current pace of fiscal consolidation is insufficient to alleviate market concerns [5][49]. - The article suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to employ quantitative easing (QE) or yield curve control (YCC) to lower US bond yields under normal conditions, as these measures are typically reserved for extreme crises [55][67]. - The potential for a debt crisis is viewed as low for developed countries with sovereign currencies, where risks manifest more as currency depreciation and rising inflation expectations rather than outright defaults [43][67].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent market turmoil characterized by a simultaneous decline in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, while gold and silver prices reached historical highs. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.4%, and the dollar index decreased by 1.9% to 97.5 [2][124] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.7% to $65.9 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices rose by 7.5% to $4936.0 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices surged by 15.4% to $102.9 per ounce [2][49][124] - The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy during its January meeting but revised its 2026 core CPI forecast (excluding fresh food) upward to 1.9% and its GDP growth forecast to 1.0% [2][98][124] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of various stock indices, noting that developed market indices experienced declines, while emerging market indices mostly rose. For instance, the Brazilian IBOVESPA index increased by 8.5% [3][8] - In the U.S. market, most sectors within the S&P 500 saw gains, particularly energy, materials, and communication services, which rose by 3.1%, 2.6%, and 1.1% respectively [8][9] - The Hang Seng Index and its sub-indices, such as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Technology Index, all experienced declines, with the former down by 0.7% [14][15] Group 3 - The article notes that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remained stable, while yields on 10-year bonds in developed countries mostly increased, with Italy's yield rising by 10.1 basis points to 3.52% [20][21] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly decreased, with Turkey's yield increasing by 122.0 basis points to 29.29%, while India's yield fell by 1.4% to 6.66% [26][27] Group 4 - The article reports on U.S. consumer spending, indicating that the actual PCE consumption for November rose by 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, reflecting robust holiday season spending [92][93] - The article also mentions that the U.S. unemployment claims for the week ending January 17 were 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000, indicating a stable labor market [101][102] Group 5 - The article discusses President Trump's remarks at the World Economic Forum, where he indicated a pause on tariffs and expressed confidence in the U.S. economy, projecting a 5.4% growth rate for Q4 [83][84] - Trump's comments included a commitment to nuclear energy development and a call for Congress to set a credit card interest rate cap at 10% for one year, reflecting his administration's economic priorities [84]

热点思考：2026年美国通胀风险有多大？ 一、对等关税的"通胀效应"：这次为何系统性低于预期？ 关税对通胀效应是有迹可循的，关税对美国CPI的推升幅度约为0.65个百分点。 但是关税传导路径并非 脉冲式的，而是阶梯式的，后者与关税税率的路径有关。剔除国别转换因素后，有效税率提升空间仅为 2个百分点 。 二、关税的"成本核算"：企业转嫁关税的空间还有多大？ 据我们测算，截止2025年9月，出口商、进口商和消费者分别承担关税成本的6%、37%、57%。2025年 四季度以来，企业转嫁关税的动能增强。2026年上半年，居民退税总额或增加30%，人均退税规模或增 加700-1000美元，进一步强化企业转嫁意愿。 三、"再通胀"还会来吗？"无风不起浪"，风险或在关税之外 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 重点推介 1、热点思考 | 美国经济的共识与分歧——基于74家机构调查 2、热点思考 | 财政金融协同，助力"开门红" 2026年，美国通胀或呈现"前高后低"特征。关税之外，上行风险重点关注周期、金属通胀；下行风险重 点关注生产率和IEEPA关税裁决等；美联储货币政策与通胀风险 ...

"对等关税"落地以来，美国再通胀的风险可控，至今尚未成为货币政策和资本市场的主要矛盾。关税的通 胀效应为何持续低于预期、会否成为2026年"被低估"的风险？ 一、对等关税的"通胀效应"：这次为何系统性低于预期？ 2025年4月以来，美国通胀开始反弹，但读数持续弱于预期。 2025年，美国"再通胀"的动力主要来自于核心 商品分项，而核心服务继续延续降温态势。2025年12月，美国CPI同比仅为2.7%，4月低点为2.3%；环比角 度来看，2025年4月以来，美国通胀环比多数弱于预期。 关税的通胀效应有迹可循，但传导路径并非脉冲式的，而是阶梯式的。 从"超额"通胀及季节性来看，关税 的通胀效应有迹可循；但是，关税的传导路径并非脉冲式的，Cavallo（2025）指出，关税对美国CPI的推升 幅度约为0.65个百分点。近几月以来，关税传导进度甚至有所停滞。 关税传导的阶梯特征与关税税率的路径有关。 截止到2025年10月，美国有效关税税率仅为12.4%，低于 15.7%的理论税率。运输时滞、抢进口因素一度阻碍有效税率提升，但关税豁免、进口国别转换或限制税率 提升空间。剔除国别转换因素后，有效税率提升空间仅为2个百分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the coordinated policy signals from various ministries, particularly focusing on stimulating domestic demand, enhancing support for technological innovation, and invigorating private investment as key areas for future policy efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Signals from Ministries - The recent press conferences from the central bank and the Ministry of Finance emphasize the need to tap into domestic demand potential, increase support for technological innovation, and activate private investment [2][8]. - Fiscal policies are being directed to consumer endpoints, with personal consumption loan interest subsidies increasing from 500 yuan to 3000 yuan, and the inclusion of credit card installment payments [2][46]. - The central bank has lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to guide down financing costs [2][46]. Group 2: Addressing Key Issues - The significant decline in new household loans in 2025, with only 360 billion yuan added compared to a decrease of 22,910 billion yuan in 2024, is a primary concern driving the expansion of personal consumption loan interest subsidies [3][48]. - Fixed asset investment fell by 3.8% in 2025, with equipment purchases being a major driver, showing an 11.8% increase, indicating the need for additional policy support to stabilize investment [4][48]. Group 3: Potential Effects of Current Policies - The fiscal interest subsidies are expected to stabilize financial data and stimulate domestic demand, despite commercial banks facing challenges in loan growth and high loan write-offs averaging 122.6 billion yuan per month in 2025 [4][26]. - The expansion of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy range is anticipated to support stable consumer spending, particularly in service consumption, as the demand shifts towards services [6][50]. - The dual benefits of equipment updates and new policy financial tools are likely to strengthen the support for new infrastructure investments, with significant increases in investment proportions in core areas like electricity, internet software, and logistics [6][36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a package policy for fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand, which is a significant measure to expand effective demand and innovate macro-control [1][2][18] - The State Council meeting proposed optimizing the implementation of service industry loans and personal consumption loan interest subsidies to enhance residents' consumption capacity [1][2] - Support for private investment includes implementing interest subsidies for loans to small and micro enterprises, establishing special guarantee plans for private investment, and optimizing equipment renewal loan interest subsidy policies [1][2][18] Group 2 - The announcement from three departments extends the personal income tax policy supporting residents' housing purchases, allowing tax refunds for individuals selling their homes and buying new ones within one year [3][4] - The policy applies to taxpayers who sell and repurchase homes within the same city, with specific conditions for tax refunds based on the sale and purchase amounts [3][4] Group 3 - The joint issuance of guidelines by four departments aims to strengthen the planning and guidance of government investment funds, ensuring alignment with national macro-control requirements and encouraging investment in key industries [5][6] - The guidelines specify that government investment funds should avoid increasing local government hidden debt and should focus on supporting national development plans and key industries [5][6] Group 4 - A meeting held by three departments focused on the regulation of the electric vehicle industry, emphasizing innovation and quality while resisting disorderly price wars [7][8] - The meeting aims to strengthen collaboration among departments, enhance cost investigations, and enforce stricter regulations to maintain a fair market environment [7][8] Group 5 - The central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates to support the real economy, alongside new policies to enhance financial support for private enterprises and technological innovation [9][10][18] - The reduction in rates aims to lower financing costs and expand loan quotas for agriculture, small businesses, and technological innovation [9][10] Group 6 - The two departments released opinions to encourage the establishment of enterprise annuities, allowing flexible contribution rates and expanding the coverage of the enterprise annuity system [11][12] - The guidelines specify that employer contributions should not exceed 8% of the total wages of employees participating in the annuity, with a combined limit of 12% for both employer and employee contributions [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The economic resilience in Q4 2025 is supported by improvements in service consumption, a moderation of the "crowding out effect" from debt reduction, and a recovery in new economic sectors [1][94]. GDP Analysis - Q4 2025 GDP growth is recorded at 4.5%, matching market expectations, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.2%, up from 1.1% in Q3 [1][4]. - The secondary industry growth rate has significantly declined by 0.8 percentage points to 3.4%, reflecting weakened fixed investment and declining commodity consumption [1][94]. - Exports continue to grow robustly, which helps mitigate the downward pressure on the overall economy [1][94]. Consumption Insights - Retail sales in December show a decline, primarily due to a 0.5 percentage point drop in retail sales of goods below a certain threshold, now at 3.1% [2][13]. - Service retail sales have improved, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%, indicating ongoing recovery in non-food service consumption [2][14]. - The automotive, home appliance, and communication equipment sectors show varying degrees of improvement in retail growth rates [2][14]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 1.2 percentage points to -13.2%, with manufacturing and service sector investments also declining [6][19]. - The "crowding out effect" from debt reduction policies is easing, leading to a marginal improvement in infrastructure investment [19][28]. - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 17.2%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [6][28]. Production Developments - Industrial value-added growth in December increased by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2%, with significant recovery in sectors with high "new momentum" such as pharmaceuticals and specialized equipment [37][46]. - Traditional sectors like automotive production are experiencing a slowdown, influenced by intensified anti-involution policies [37][46]. Summary of Economic Structure Changes - The transition in policy focus from goods to services is leading to a divergence in economic indicators, with traditional metrics showing weakness while service consumption indicators improve [3][46]. - The decline in investment growth is largely attributed to intensified corporate debt repayment policies, which ultimately benefit corporate cash flow [3][46].

Key Points - The article discusses the recent trends in major asset classes, highlighting the rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and the concurrent increase in gold and silver prices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced slight declines of 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.0 basis points to 4.24% [2][3] - The article notes a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which fell to $777.1 billion as of January 14, 2026, and a decline in net issuance of U.S. debt, with a rolling net issuance of -$9.23 million [2][62] - The U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3%. This has led to increased market speculation regarding Kevin Walsh as a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [2][84] - The article highlights that the U.S. retail sales for November exceeded expectations, rising by 0.6% month-on-month, driven by significant improvements in motor vehicle sales and dining services, indicating resilience in consumer spending [2][85] - The article also mentions that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were lower than market expectations, with 198,000 claims reported, compared to the expected 215,000 [2][88]