Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to explore economic potential and coordinate policies and reforms, focusing on stabilizing domestic demand and aligning policy direction with current development trends [1][3]. Group 1: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy will continue to adopt a "more proactive" approach, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels while addressing local fiscal difficulties [3]. - The conference highlights the importance of monetary policy in promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, indicating potential for future monetary easing through tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [3][4]. - There is a focus on integrating existing and new policies to ensure consistency with current economic goals, suggesting structural adjustments to outdated policies that do not align with the current economic transformation [3][4]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - The conference underscores the principle of "demand-led growth," with key initiatives aimed at increasing urban and rural residents' income, unleashing service consumption potential, and stabilizing investment [3][4]. - The investment strategy includes increasing central budget investment and optimizing the use of local government special bonds, which may enhance investment stability in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Green Development and Structural Opportunities - Green development is prioritized, with a focus on "dual carbon" goals and accelerating the construction of a new energy system, indicating a stronger policy focus on green initiatives [4]. - The structural impact on the stock market is expected to favor sectors such as domestic demand and technology, with policies directly benefiting the consumer sector and promoting innovation in key regions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in M1 growth is attributed to the misalignment of fiscal debt issuance schedules, with significant liquidity injections into enterprises through a large-scale debt replacement policy initiated in November 2024, which has led to a lack of improvement in M1 growth by the end of 2025 [2][8][48] Financial Data Summary - As of November 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%, while the stock of social financing remained flat at 8.5%, and M1 fell by 1.3 percentage points to 4.9% [1][7][47] - The M1 growth decline is also linked to a decrease in household deposits, which is directly related to a contraction in household credit demand, with reductions of 520.4 billion and 476.3 billion yuan in October and November respectively [2][11][48] - In November, corporate loans were primarily short-term, with a slight increase in short-term loans and bill financing, while medium to long-term loans saw a minor decline, indicating a cautious investment attitude among enterprises despite rising PPI [16][49] Social Financing and Government Debt - The growth rate of social financing showed signs of recovery, primarily due to a narrowing decline in government debt net financing, which decreased by 1.048 billion yuan in November compared to a larger decline of 5.643 billion yuan in October [3][21][49] - The remaining government debt net financing quota for December is 1.2 trillion yuan, with a projected high of 17.566 trillion yuan for December 2024, which may again negatively impact social financing growth [21][49] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the Central Economic Work Conference's emphasis on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, future monetary policy may become more proactive, with the People's Bank of China indicating a flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools [23][49]

Deep Dive - The article highlights the "blind spot" in the bond market, warning of the "high volatility" trap in a low-interest-rate environment, where adjustments can occur within 1-2 months, leading to changes of 50-100 basis points [4][6]. - It emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to focus on structural investment opportunities, suggesting that such collaboration can enhance economic resilience [6][8]. Hot Topics - A significant reversal and rebalancing in the U.S. labor market is anticipated for 2026, questioning whether the trend of "jobless growth" will continue [11]. - The Political Bureau meeting aims to achieve a strong start for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on the integration of economic work and trade struggles, while emphasizing the importance of policy effectiveness and economic growth [13][16]. - Economic indicators show a rebound in exports and a strengthening CPI since November, raising questions about the overall economic performance and potential highlights as the year closes [15][19]. - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines ten key highlights, including the need for a proactive fiscal policy, increasing fiscal deficit rates, and ensuring robust support for key sectors [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes five "musts" to address the current economic challenges, highlighting the contradiction of strong supply and weak demand domestically, and aims to enhance economic potential through policy support and reform innovation [2][15]. Economic Situation and Policy Framework - The conference identifies persistent "old problems and new challenges" in the economy, particularly focusing on the current state of strong supply and weak demand, which aligns with the ongoing weakness in PPI and CPI [2][15]. - The 2025 conference shifts focus from the demand side issues highlighted in 2024 to the current supply-demand imbalance, indicating a need for deeper structural adjustments [2][15]. Economic Goals for 2026 - The conference outlines a focus on overall economic stability and quality improvement, stating the goal of "continuously consolidating and expanding the stable and positive momentum of the economy" without detailing specific indicators [3][16]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties and promoting debt management [4][17]. - Monetary policy aims to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery, with a focus on flexible use of tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [4][17]. Policy Coordination and Reform - The conference stresses the importance of enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, integrating both existing and new policies to align with current economic goals [5][18]. - There is a notable emphasis on combining short-term policy measures with long-term institutional reforms, particularly in expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution" in competition [6][19]. Green Development and Risk Management - The conference prioritizes green and low-carbon initiatives, committing to accelerate the construction of a new energy system and expand the application of green electricity [7][20]. - Risk management strategies have evolved from "preventing and resolving" to "actively and prudently resolving," particularly in the real estate sector, where measures include controlling new supply and promoting the conversion of existing properties into affordable housing [8][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of industrial production, construction, and demand trends in China, highlighting weak performance in various sectors while noting some marginal improvements in construction and consumer activity. Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% to 81.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2] - Steel apparent consumption has also decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 2.68% and a year-on-year drop of 2.4 percentage points to 1.2% [2] - Social inventory of steel continues to decline, down 2.9% week-on-week [2] Construction Industry - Cement production and demand show marginal improvement, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 0.5% week-on-week to 38.9% [23] - Cement shipment rates decreased by 0.8% week-on-week to 44.4%, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [23] - Cement inventory ratio continues to decline, down 1.9% week-on-week [23] Demand Trends - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 24% week-on-week and 20.8 percentage points year-on-year [46] - The migration scale index remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points to 19.8% [58] - Movie attendance and box office revenue saw significant increases, with attendance up 322.0% year-on-year and revenue up 313.9% [64] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally rising, with vegetable prices increasing by 2.1% week-on-week, while pork prices fell by 0.7% [88] - The South China industrial product price index rose by 1% week-on-week, with energy prices up 0.3% and metal prices up 1.7% [100]

Group 1 - In November, economic activity showed signs of weak improvement, with inventory levels decreasing, which may lead to a more orderly recovery in production [1][7] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, indicating that production constraints from high inventory levels are still present [1][7] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in November, with a faster pace of inventory reduction potentially easing the impact of high inventory on future production [1][7] Group 2 - Demand recovery appears to be stronger, supported by the easing of short-term supply disruptions, which positively impacted exports, rising to 5.9% in November after a decline in October [1][13] - The increase in working days in November contributed to the export rebound, as the "production rush" effect from previous months diminished [1][13] Group 3 - Domestic demand highlights include improvements in investment and service consumption, with the easing of debt repayment pressures potentially benefiting investment [2][22] - Service consumption is expected to remain high due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite some pressure from the decline in "trade-in" programs [2][22] Group 4 - Challenges remain, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where companies are accelerating debt repayments, which may further constrain investment [3][28] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with expectations of further declines in real estate investment and sales in November [3][42] Group 5 - Inflation indicators showed improvement, with the CPI expected to rise to 0.7% in November, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables and gold [4][57] - The PPI is projected to slightly decline to -2.2% in November, reflecting the lagging effects of the "anti-involution" policies on price recovery in the downstream sectors [4][69] Group 6 - Overall, November's economic indicators suggest improvements in both quantity and price, with actual GDP growth estimated at 4.4%, indicating resilience in growth [4][78] - The demand-side improvements are more pronounced, with short-term factors positively impacting exports and easing investment pressures from debt repayment [4][78]

Core Viewpoint - The CPI rebound in November is primarily influenced by structural factors, and after excluding these disturbances, both CPI and PPI remain weak [2][8][71] CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 0.7%, driven by a low base and reduced supply in certain categories, particularly food [2][8][71] - Food prices rose, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant increases of 21.8% and 2.7% respectively, while pork prices remained low at -15% year-on-year [2][8][71] - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, largely supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year [2][8][72] PPI Analysis - The PPI in November recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [7][45] - Factors influencing PPI include rising coal prices due to anti-involution policies, which increased by 9.5% month-on-month, contributing 0.3% to the PPI [3][35][73] - However, the decline in steel and oil prices negatively impacted the PPI, leading to an overall weak performance in downstream prices [3][35][73] Service CPI Insights - The service CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% in November, with weak demand for travel and further declines in rental prices [3][25][62] - The core service CPI decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, primarily due to reduced travel demand post-holiday, affecting hotel and flight prices [3][25][62] Future Outlook - There is potential for further increases in commodity prices, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize, leading to a moderate recovery in inflation [4][41] - The CPI is expected to see a mild rebound due to low base effects and high gold prices, but constraints from reduced government subsidies and rising youth unemployment may limit the extent of this rebound [4][41] Regular Tracking - The November CPI rebound was significantly driven by food items, with food CPI rising by 3.1 percentage points to 0.2% year-on-year [5][50][74] - Non-food CPI categories such as household appliances and communication tools experienced declines, with respective decreases of -0.1% and -1.9% [5][55][74] - Overall service CPI showed a marginal decline, with core service CPI performing worse than seasonal trends [5][62][74]

Group 1 - The article highlights that low interest rates do not guarantee low volatility in the bond market, as evidenced by overseas experiences where significant adjustments occur even in low-rate environments [1][6][11] - In the context of low interest rates, the bond market often experiences rapid and substantial adjustments characterized by three main features: large adjustment amplitudes (average adjustments of 81bp for the US, 53bp for Germany, 59bp for France, and 74bp for Japan), quick adjustment speeds (typically occurring within 1-2 months), and adjustments that are often accompanied by rising term premiums [1][17][24] - The concept of "convexity" in bonds amplifies market volatility in low interest rate environments, leading to a non-linear increase in duration and significant sensitivity to price changes, resulting in greater capital losses during interest rate rebounds compared to high-rate environments [1][24][28] Group 2 - The article discusses that the micro-foundations of bond market vulnerability in low interest rate environments stem from homogenized strategies and crowded trading behaviors among institutions, which can lead to increased fragility [2][34][46] - A reversal in macroeconomic expectations often serves as a direct trigger for breaking market consensus and inducing high volatility in the bond market, with historical instances showing that significant market adjustments can occur even without tightening monetary policy [2][46][57] - The anticipated economic recovery in 2026 is expected to shift from a confidence-building phase to a "non-typical" recovery, with monetary policy becoming more cautious regarding interest rate cuts, which may lead to increased volatility in the bond market due to the rebalancing of funds [3][79][88]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in exports in November is primarily supported by the dissipation of short-term supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand [3][10][82] Export Data Summary - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3% and recovering from a decline of 1.1% in October [2][9][82] - The rebound in exports is attributed to factors such as an increase in working days and the reduction of "production rush" effects, which had previously impacted supply [3][10][82] - The increase in working days in November (up by 2 days year-on-year) contributed significantly to the export recovery [3][10][82] Country-Level Analysis - Regions that previously experienced significant supply shocks saw notable rebounds in exports in November, indicating that the easing of supply disruptions was a key driver [3][21][82] - Exports to emerging economies showed a clear recovery in November, with exports to Africa and Latin America increasing by 17.1 and 12.8 percentage points, respectively [3][21][82] - Despite the rebound, there was no significant improvement in demand from these emerging economies, as indicated by stable PMI readings in South Africa and Brazil [3][21][82] Commodity Export Trends - Commodities that had previously shown significant export volatility also experienced a notable recovery in November, with food, steel, and auto parts exports rebounding sharply [4][29][83] - The export growth rates for consumer electronics and light industrial products also improved significantly in November after substantial declines in October [4][29][83] Import Data Summary - Imports in November increased by 1.9% year-on-year, recovering from a previous expectation of 2.9% [2][9][82] - Processing trade imports saw a significant rise of 9.2 percentage points to 13.9%, indicating a recovery in trade performance due to the easing of supply disruptions [4][37][82] - Major commodities such as crude oil and electromechanical products also showed improved import growth rates in November [4][37][82] Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions, combined with ongoing improvements in external demand and China's competitive export advantages, is expected to support exports for the remainder of the year [5][45][46] - The potential for improved exports to the U.S. is bolstered by the easing of tariffs and the possibility of inventory replenishment in the U.S. market [5][45][46] - Continued industrialization in emerging markets is anticipated to drive demand for intermediate and capital goods, further supporting China's export performance [5][45][46] Regular Tracking - November saw a general recovery in both exports and imports, with notable increases in consumer electronics and light industrial products [6][71][82] - Capital goods exports showed mixed results, with intermediate goods like auto parts and integrated circuits experiencing growth [6][59][68] - Exports to non-U.S. developed economies and emerging markets showed positive trends, while exports to the U.S. declined [6][68][71]

报告正文 事件： 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法 治国工作条例》。 政治局会议在基调上有何亮点？统筹经济工作和经贸斗争、重视政策效果和经济增长 会议重提2025年4月政治局会议首提的"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，凸显对外部环境不确定性的 关注与内部发展稳定性的重视。 这一表述在2024年12月会议"更好统筹发展和安全"基础上深化延伸，既体现 对内外双重任务的统筹考量，也与"十五五"规划建议的形势判断相契合，精准呼应"以国内循环的稳定性对冲 国际循环的不确定性"的核心要求。 会议以"提质增效"替代"以进促稳"，凸显对政策质量、效率与可持续性的平衡考量。 会议延续提出"继续实施 更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，更强调"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"。2026年财政政策 或将保持扩张取向并优化支出结构。中性情景预期赤字率维持在4%左右，特别国债与新增专项债规模较2025 年小幅扩张；货币政策更注重流动性呵护，结构上以精准支持为核心，预计央行可能实施1次幅度约10BP的降 息。 会议提出"推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"，锚定 ...