Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "de-dollarization" in the context of a weakening US dollar and highlights the importance of understanding the international monetary system through a recommended reading list of 20 classic works [3][24]. Group 1: Hot Topics - The rumor of "firing" Powell has led to significant market reactions, including declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies [2][3]. - The article explores the potential implications of Trump's ability to dismiss Powell and whether Powell might resign early [3][10]. - A focus on how overseas countries are addressing issues of overcapacity and competition, with examples from Japan and Germany, is presented as a reference for China's future policy [6][20]. Group 2: Export Trends - Following an unexpected rise in June exports, there is speculation on whether July exports will also exceed expectations, with traditional indicators showing a downward bias [10][11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring "hidden" indicators that could provide insights into export performance [10]. Group 3: Domestic and International Tracking - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has reached a new high for the year, indicating a recovery in industrial production and construction activity [15][16]. - The US may increase tariffs on European goods following weaker-than-expected core CPI data for June [18][19]. Group 4: Policy Insights - The Central Urban Work Conference held in Beijing outlines a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing the need for a people-centered approach and improved urban governance [21][20]. - Key strategies include optimizing urban systems, fostering innovation, and enhancing livability while addressing environmental concerns [21]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The article raises questions about where the new "three trillion" investments will be directed, particularly in the context of GDP per capita transitioning from $10,000 to $30,000, which typically shifts demand towards the service sector [24][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a slight recovery in industrial production and construction activity, alongside an increase in freight volume, indicating potential improvements in economic conditions. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows a slight recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 0.8% year-on-year [5][9] - The chemical production chain has seen improvements, with soda ash and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 3.3 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2][17] - The automotive sector also shows improvement, with semi-steel tire operating rates up by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [17] Group 2: Construction Activity - Construction activity is showing signs of recovery, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [29] - Cement shipment rates have significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points [29][33] - Asphalt operating rates have slightly decreased but remain higher than the same period last year [2][41] Group 3: Demand and Freight Volume - Real estate transactions remain low, with average daily transaction area down by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [53] - Freight volume has increased, with port cargo throughput and container throughput rising by 1.3 percentage points and 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [65][72] - The national migration scale index has increased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stronger movement of people [77] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruit prices declining by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.0% respectively [107] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index rising by 1.0% [119][120] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 0.9%, while the metal price index also rose by 1.0% [119][126] Group 5: Export Indicators - Export indicators show potential improvement, with foreign trade port cargo volume increasing by 8.9% year-on-year [135] - Container throughput to Vietnam has surged to over 60%, while shipments to the U.S. have decreased [135] - The overall export production index has increased by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a positive outlook for July exports [138]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that export indicators for July show signs of improvement, particularly in exports to emerging countries, with a marginal increase of 8% in foreign trade port cargo volume [2][8][112] - The container throughput at foreign trade ports increased by 8.9% year-on-year in July, indicating a potential short-term improvement in actual export volume [2][8][112] - The structure of exports shows a significant recovery in container cargo volume from China to Vietnam, rising to over 60%, while exports to the US have declined [2][13][112] Group 2 - Container shipping rates have been declining since July, with the CCFI composite index dropping 4.8% over three weeks, indicating varying impacts on different shipping routes [3][21][113] - The relative price changes in shipping rates suggest better export performance to emerging markets compared to the US, with the East-South Asia and East-West Africa routes showing higher rates [3][32][113] Group 3 - Production indicators for July show a rebound in export-related production, particularly in the consumption and metallurgy chains, with a 1% year-on-year increase in foreign trade road freight [4][5][114] - The overall export production index increased by 0.5 percentage points in July, indicating a potential continuation of export improvement [5][115] Group 4 - Macro leading indicators, such as a 3.3 percentage point increase in processing trade imports in June, suggest that July exports may rise to around 8% [6][92][100] - The high level of the Yiwu small commodity export price index supports the expectation of higher cross-border export growth to Europe and the UK [6][95][100] Group 5 - There are concerns about potential declines in export figures after September due to the end of "export rush," with signs of weakening in strong-performing export chains [7][100][117] - The new export PMI for metallurgy and consumption chains has shown a decline, indicating possible future decreases in export figures [7][100][117]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of learning from international experiences in addressing industrial disorder and overcapacity, suggesting that policies encouraging mergers and acquisitions, raising industry standards, and implementing market-based clearance alongside safety net policies could be effective [8][42]. Group 2 - Japan's experience highlights the formation of cross-shareholding and mergers to create an industrial network, which helps mitigate excessive competition and enhance economies of scale. The revision of the Antimonopoly Act in 1953 and the introduction of the "New Industrial Structure Theory" in 1963 were pivotal in promoting corporate mergers [2][49]. - The shareholding of financial institutions in Japanese companies increased from 30% in 1960 to 45% in 1990, and the average cross-shareholding ratio among Japan's six major groups rose from 12% in 1962 to 18% in 1998 [2][49]. - The establishment of "Keiretsu" groups, which consist of horizontal and vertical alliances, has stabilized supply chains and reduced price wars, thereby promoting industrial upgrades [3][50]. Group 3 - The UK and US experiences demonstrate the significance of market-based clearance while ensuring social safety nets. The UK government ceased financial subsidies and gradually exited the coal price protection system in the mid-1980s, leading to the closure of about one-third of coal mines [4][51]. - In the US, the steel industry faced similar challenges, with the government eliminating tax incentives and facilitating mergers in the 1980s, resulting in a reduction of crude steel capacity by approximately 52.8 million tons from 1998 to 2003 [4][25]. - Both countries implemented various employment support measures, such as the UK's "Enterprise Allowance Scheme" and the US's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), which provided safety nets for displaced workers [5][32]. Group 4 - Germany's approach emphasizes setting high industry standards to foster differentiated competition. The Beer Purity Law established in 1516 set strict quality standards for beer production, which helped protect local industries and enhance product quality [6][37]. - The German government encourages regional styles and has established detailed certification mechanisms to ensure product authenticity and quality, promoting a diverse and competitive market [6][39]. - By aligning with international beer classification standards, Germany has guided the market towards high-quality, non-price competition, facilitating innovation and cultural positioning among breweries [6][54].

Group 1 - The central urban work conference emphasized the need to accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development and to steadily promote the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, without setting clear targets [1] - The State Council meeting highlighted the importance of normalizing competition in the new energy vehicle industry, focusing on cost investigation, price monitoring, and ensuring key enterprises fulfill payment commitments [2][9] - The government plans to implement policies to stimulate consumption and optimize the supply of consumer goods, aiming to release the potential of domestic demand [5][6] Group 2 - The financial policy execution meeting indicated that the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on supporting technological innovation and expanding consumption [7][8] - The government is actively formulating measures to enhance market order and address issues related to "involution" in various industries, including the new energy vehicle sector [9][10] - The market supervision authority has published typical cases of "involution-style" competition, aiming to combat the production and sale of substandard products [11][12] Group 3 - The government is promoting high-quality development in the manufacturing sector, with a focus on intelligent and green transformation, and plans to issue work plans for key industries [10][18] - The experiences of Japan, the UK, the US, and Germany in addressing over-competition and excess capacity provide valuable insights for China's policy formulation [14][15][17][19] - Germany's approach to establishing high standards and differentiated competition models has proven effective in promoting industry upgrades and curbing improper competition [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Trump's rumored intention to "fire" Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the resulting market reactions, including a significant sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Group 1: Rumors of Firing Powell - Recent rumors suggest Trump may "fire" Powell, leading to market volatility and concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence [2][5] - Trump's motivation for potentially firing Powell includes a desire for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal pressure, as interest payments accounted for 16.9% of federal spending by June 2025 [22][33] - Legal challenges exist regarding Trump's ability to fire Powell, as he would need to prove "misconduct," and Powell could seek legal recourse to maintain his position [38][41] Group 2: Powell's Response and Potential Resignation - Powell has expressed a strong commitment to completing his term, stating he cannot foresee any reason other than death that would prevent him from doing so [3][45] - Historical precedents exist where Federal Reserve Chairs resigned under political pressure, but Powell's determination appears firm [3][45] Group 3: Next Chairman Nomination Process - If Trump successfully fires Powell, the nomination process for a new chairman could accelerate, with potential candidates including Waller, Hassett, and Basant [48][59] - The nomination process involves presidential nomination, Senate hearings, and confirmation, which can vary in duration [55] Group 4: Market Reactions - The market experienced a "triple kill" (stocks, bonds, and currencies all declining) in response to the rumors, with significant movements in the S&P 500 and U.S. Treasury yields [20][9] - Following Trump's denial of plans to fire Powell, market conditions stabilized, indicating the sensitivity of financial markets to political developments [20][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic indicators in the U.S., highlighting weaker-than-expected core CPI and strong retail performance, alongside potential tariff increases on European imports by the U.S. government [2][35][37]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. June core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which was below the market expectation of 0.3%. Year-on-year, the core CPI was reported at 2.9%, matching expectations [35]. - June retail sales in the U.S. rose by 0.6% month-on-month, significantly rebounding from May, indicating a robust consumer spending environment [37]. Group 2: Tariff Developments - On July 12, President Trump announced a potential increase in tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico to 30% if trade negotiations do not reach an agreement by August 1 [27]. - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) initiated a 301 investigation against Brazil on July 15, focusing on digital trade and intellectual property issues [27]. Group 3: Market Performance - Major developed market indices saw gains, with the S&P 500 up by 0.6% and the Hang Seng Index up by 2.8% during the week [2]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.0 basis points to 4.4%, reflecting market reactions to economic data and tariff announcements [2][10]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.6% to 98.46, while the offshore RMB depreciated to 7.1810 against the dollar [14][20]. - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.6% to $67.3 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices decreased by 0.3% to $3349.4 per ounce [22][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which highlights the inherent instability of a unipolar international monetary system, is relevant to understanding the current situation [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's currency crisis in 1931, to illustrate the recurring nature of these monetary challenges [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the current issues with the dollar system are not isolated but are part of a broader historical pattern of monetary instability [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It suggests that discussions around stablecoins should return to fundamental questions about the essence and functions of money [5]. Group 4: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary relations, and strategy is highlighted, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are deeply intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations [6]. - The article stresses the importance of understanding economic policies in conjunction with strategic and foreign policy issues, particularly in the context of a chaotic international monetary system [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms and the various hidden mechanisms involved in "anti-involution" [4]. Deep Dive Topics - The "anti-involution" topic has gained traction, but there is a considerable divergence in understanding, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to misinterpretations [4]. - The article emphasizes that beyond production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, there are numerous hidden strategies associated with "anti-involution" [4]. Hot Topics - Since June, there has been a resurgence of the "golden-haired girl" trading phenomenon overseas, with domestic sentiment also heating up. The article questions which data might exceed expectations and whether the market's main narrative will shift due to the effects of tariffs [8]. - The importance of "strategic resources" has been underscored in the context of changing global trade dynamics, prompting an exploration of which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]. High-Frequency Tracking - The role of "export grabbing" is evolving, with a shift from emerging markets to the United States, indicating a change in export dynamics [13]. - Credit improvement is primarily driven by short-term loans to enterprises, reflecting a trend in financial data [17]. - The June economic data reveals five significant anomalies, suggesting new changes in the economy that may be hidden [21]. - The article notes that the third quarter will serve as a verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects, with a focus on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [24]. - Domestic infrastructure construction has shown a continuous recovery, while industrial production remains relatively stable, although there is a divergence in the construction sector and a slowdown in real estate transactions [26]. - The expiration of tariff exemptions has led to declines in most developed markets, indicating a potential impact on international trade dynamics [29].

Group 1 - Rare earths are a crucial strategic resource for China due to their key roles in military and high-tech fields, with China holding a complete industrial chain [1][7][16] - China's rare earth production accounts for 70% of global output, with projections for 2024 indicating a production of 270,000 tons, representing 68.5% of global total [1][8][16] - Despite ongoing trade tensions, the U.S. maintains a high dependency on Chinese rare earths, with reliance stabilizing around 75% in recent years [1][8][16] Group 2 - China possesses a complete industrial chain in the rare earth sector, from mining to application, making it difficult for other countries to establish alternative supply chains [2][16] - The rare earth industry is segmented into upstream mining, midstream processing, and downstream manufacturing, with only China achieving full coverage across all segments [2][16] Group 3 - Other products with "extreme reliance" on China include chemicals and mineral metals, particularly in the U.S., where 98 products have over 90% import reliance from China, totaling $16.25 billion [3][19][25] - The U.S. has seen a significant increase in dependency on mineral metals, with reliance jumping from 0% in 2022 to 100% in 2024 [3][25][33] - Chemical imports from China have also surged, with the dependency rising from 28.9% in 2010 to 93.8% in 2024 [3][25][49] Group 4 - Products with strategic value similar to rare earths include certain chemicals and metals, with a total import scale of $1.5 billion, indicating potential as key bargaining chips in trade negotiations [4][39][40] - Key materials such as lithium battery additives and active pharmaceutical ingredients are dominated by Chinese production, making them difficult to replace [4][33][39] Group 5 - China's global export share has remained high over the past 20 years, particularly in chemicals, which have seen a 21.1 percentage point increase since 2010 [5][42][49] - The U.S. has significantly increased its import share of chemicals from China, rising from 34.1% in 2010 to 95.4% in 2024, highlighting China's critical role in the U.S. supply chain [5][49]