Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade risks following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies such as Japan and the EU [2][49]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6]. - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9]. - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, medium tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14]. Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][51]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a significant increase in annual investment to meet targets [4][21]. - South Korea's commitment of $350 billion represents 53% of its fiscal spending, necessitating a dramatic increase in FDI to the US [4][21]. Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to maintain tariff leverage as a long-term strategy, with tariff revenues reaching $125.6 billion by July 29, 2025, which is 2.3 times higher than the previous year [5][32]. - The uncertainty surrounding the execution of trade agreements suggests that the US may continue to create tariff threats, particularly as the expiration date for the US-China tariff suspension approaches [5][52]. - The US's approach to tariffs is shifting from "managing exchange rates to reduce trade deficits" to "controlling fiscal policy to manage trade deficits," indicating a long-term strategy focused on tariff leverage [5][37].

Core Viewpoints - The weak performance of PPI is attributed to two "dark lines": the timing of statistics and low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors [2][8][69] - In July, PPI continued to bottom out, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2% and a year-on-year rate of -3.6%, which was below market expectations [2][8][69] - The rise in commodity prices did not fully reflect in the PPI due to the timing of price surveys, which did not capture late-month price increases [2][8][69] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by a significant drag from mid and downstream prices, which contributed to a -0.3% impact on PPI [2][13][69] - The PPI performance was also affected by tariffs, with industries heavily reliant on exports experiencing downward price pressure [2][13][69] - High-frequency data showed a divergence from PPI trends, with coal and steel prices recovering, while coal mining and black metal processing remained negative [2][8][69] CPI Analysis - In July, the core CPI rose to its highest level in a year and a half, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies [3][20][70] - The CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.4% was slightly above the average since 2017, with core CPI rising 0.8% year-on-year [3][20][70] - The demand for core services improved due to summer travel, although rental prices remained weak [3][28][70] Food Prices Impact - Food prices were weak, constraining the CPI's recovery, with food CPI down 1.6% year-on-year, a decline that expanded by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [4][33][71] - Fresh vegetable prices fell significantly, contributing to the downward pressure on CPI [4][33][71] - The supply of pork continued to rise, leading to lower pork prices, which also impacted the overall food CPI [4][34][71] Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost commodity prices, but excess supply in the mid and downstream sectors may limit the transmission of upstream price increases [4][39][71] - The forecast suggests that inflation will remain weak throughout the year, with limited recovery in both PPI and CPI due to the current supply-demand dynamics [4][39][71] - Core commodity CPI may be suppressed by downstream PPI, and agricultural supply is expected to remain ample, leading to moderate improvements in CPI [4][39][71]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. labor market, highlighting its fragile "tight balance" and the implications for future economic policies, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. Group 1: Hot Topics - The U.S. labor market showed weaker-than-expected employment data for July, with significant downward revisions for May and June, raising concerns about economic strength and the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [12]. - The article emphasizes the paradox of rising inflation expectations amid weak price performance, questioning how supply and demand dynamics will evolve and impact prices [13]. - The "hidden debt accountability" initiative has seen 44 cases reported by the Ministry of Finance since 2022, indicating a shift in how such issues are addressed [15]. Group 2: Monthly Outlook - July's export data showed a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, surpassing the expected 5.8%, while imports rose by 4.1%, also exceeding expectations [19]. - The article notes a significant decline in port freight volumes, reflecting seasonal trends in industrial production and mixed performance in the construction sector [21]. Group 3: Policy Tracking - The Central Political Bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for stable macroeconomic policies, focusing on employment, market stability, and effective use of government bonds to enhance economic resilience [26]. - The article highlights the importance of addressing local government debt risks and preventing new hidden debts, as part of broader efforts to maintain fiscal discipline [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a stable economic environment, focusing on employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while implementing proactive fiscal and moderate monetary policies [1][2][3] - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility to promote domestic and international dual circulation, aiming to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [2][3] - The meeting also stressed the need for high-quality urban renewal and the preparation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting with non-Party figures on July 23 gathered opinions on the current economic situation and emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment and enterprises while boosting consumption [3][4] - The U.S.-China economic talks in Stockholm on July 28-29 resulted in an agreement to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days, highlighting the mutual benefits of stable economic relations [5][6] - The implementation plan for childcare subsidies was announced, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for those under three years old starting January 1, 2025, with financial support from the central government [7][8] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is seeking public input on guidelines for government investment funds, focusing on enhancing high-end capacity supply and avoiding investments in structurally problematic industries [9][10] - A multi-department meeting from July 24 to August 1 outlined key tasks for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand and improve market regulation [10][11] - The joint implementation plan for promoting agricultural product consumption aims to enhance supply quality and innovate distribution methods to stimulate market demand [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the management of local government hidden debts in China, highlighting the increased accountability measures and the focus on grassroots government actions and project-related hidden debts [1][2][6]. Summary by Sections Hidden Debt Accountability Cases - Since the initiation of the new round of hidden debt resolution work in 2022, the Ministry of Finance has reported 44 typical cases of "hidden debt accountability," indicating a strengthened regulatory approach towards local hidden debts [2][12]. - The accountability cases are primarily concentrated in low-tier cities in central and western regions, with significant occurrences in provinces like Jiangxi, Henan, and Anhui [3][15]. Changes in 2025 Accountability Cases - The 2025 accountability cases show a shift towards focusing on grassroots government behavior and project-related hidden debts, reflecting a "penetrating" regulatory approach [4][17]. - The accountability cases in 2025 emphasize the actions of city, district, and county-level governments, with specific instances of accountability involving local industrial development committees [4][20]. New Directions for Hidden Debt - New hidden debt allocations in 2025 include funds for paying off loans for shantytown renovations and high-standard farmland improvement projects, indicating a trend of local governments resorting to hidden debts for project financing [5][23]. - The accountability measures reveal that local governments are increasingly using hidden debts to cover construction costs and repay existing debts, reflecting financial pressures on local budgets [7][23]. Reform Signals Behind Hidden Debt Accountability - The changes in hidden debt accountability cases signal a heightened emphasis on high-quality construction and strict regulation of new hidden debts, as highlighted in recent central government meetings [6][31]. - The accountability measures also point to the need for reform in the fiscal relationship between central and local governments, as local governments face pressures in maintaining basic financial obligations [7][38]. Fiscal System Reform - The article suggests that fiscal system reform is crucial for preventing hidden debts and addressing the competitive pressures faced by local governments, which have increasingly relied on high-tax industries and central subsidies [7][38].

Group 1: Inflation and Policy Response - The core focus of July's policy is on "anti-involution," with multiple departments addressing the phenomenon of market "involution" [2][11] - The expected inflation rates for July are projected at -3.1% for PPI and 0% for CPI, indicating weak price performance despite rising commodity prices [2][11] - The increase in commodity prices is driven by expectations of supply contraction, but excess supply in downstream sectors limits the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [2][24] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Industrial production remains resilient, with July's industrial value added expected to be around 6.4%, despite a decline in new orders [4][61] - The PMI production index indicates that production is still expanding, with notable increases in sectors like general equipment and black metal rolling [4][55] - The supply situation is characterized by a divergence, where production is better than demand, contrary to market expectations of significant supply contraction [4][48] Group 3: Demand Structure - Demand is showing signs of differentiation, with weak goods demand but stronger service demand, leading to a projected slight decline in actual GDP to 4.9% for July [6][73] - Export performance is expected to exceed expectations in July due to the residual effects of "export grabbing," but there are concerns about a potential decline in exports in September [6][73] - The consumer market is experiencing a potential decline in goods consumption due to a "subsidy gap" in the "old-for-new" program, while service consumption is expected to improve due to increased travel activity [8][89] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed, with real estate and manufacturing investments likely to decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments may see improvement [8][102] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support infrastructure investment, with asphalt construction rates showing an upward trend [8][102] - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to the nearing end of equipment renewal demand, while real estate investment is likely to continue weakening [8][102] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The main logic of economic operation in July revolves around "price increases," but the sustainability of these increases is relatively weak due to supply-side production increases and weak demand [9][112] - The overall economic indicators suggest a nominal GDP growth of 3.9% and an actual GDP growth of 4.9% for July, reflecting the current economic conditions [9][112]

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, with materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials down 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - The yield on 10-year bonds in other developed markets also fell, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly declined, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52]

Group 1 - The core issue of the article revolves around the weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data for July, primarily due to significant downward revisions in May and June employment figures [2][4] - The July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 104,000, while May and June figures were revised down by 125,000 and 133,000 respectively [5][11] - The downward revisions were mainly concentrated in the government sector, indicating that the previously reported strong employment figures were misleading [5][9] Group 2 - The article questions the reasons behind the substantial downward revisions in May and June, suggesting that statistical factors cannot fully explain the changes, and the primary reason is a weakening labor market [2][23] - Historical data shows that significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic downturns, suggesting a potential economic slowdown [40][48] - The labor market is entering a "loosened" phase, with both supply and demand weakening, making it difficult for the unemployment rate to decrease significantly [48][60] Group 3 - The economic outlook for the second half of the year indicates a continuation of the slowdown trend, with factors such as increased tariffs and reduced consumer spending likely to suppress economic growth [3][60] - Following the release of the July non-farm data, the market has priced in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3][60] - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's focus may shift towards the unemployment rate rather than non-farm payroll numbers, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [3][60] Group 4 - The article highlights that the labor market's current state reflects a mismatch between supply and demand, exacerbated by immigration policies that have reduced labor supply [64][66] - The equilibrium level of job growth needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate has decreased, indicating a potential shift in labor market dynamics [64][66] - The article suggests that while immigration policy changes may alleviate some upward pressure on unemployment, they may not fully counteract the weakening demand in the labor market [64][66]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic trends and policies in China, focusing on fiscal spending, child-rearing subsidies, and the implications of the "involution" phenomenon in different sectors [6][12][21]. Group 1: Currency and Economic Policies - The article highlights the weak yen amidst political turmoil, analyzing the reasons behind its depreciation and potential future developments [9]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced supply-demand relationship in industries to address the "involution" issue, suggesting that local governments play a crucial role in this process [12][21]. Group 2: Fiscal Spending and Child-Rearing Subsidies - Fiscal spending has accelerated significantly in the first half of the year, raising questions about whether this high growth rate can be sustained in the latter half [17]. - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies is expected to have systemic impacts on employment, education, and healthcare, with various regions implementing different subsidy policies [19][20]. Group 3: Industrial Performance and Economic Outlook - The industrial profit data for June indicates improvements in costs and revenues, supporting a recovery in profits, although the "involution" trend may limit further declines in profits [21]. - The July Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, marking a shift towards "high-quality" investments [23]. Group 4: Market Trends and International Relations - The article notes that the PMI data for July reflects a paradox where anti-involution policies have led to price increases, yet supply-demand dynamics and industry changes appear counterintuitive [25]. - Recent agreements on tariffs between the US and Japan have resulted in positive market reactions in developed markets, indicating a potential for increased trade cooperation [28]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Activity - Despite a relatively weak industrial production environment, port cargo volumes remain strong, suggesting resilience in certain sectors [29]. - The article also tracks domestic policy developments, including the public consultation on the price law amendment, which reflects ongoing regulatory adjustments [31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of high-quality construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which is described as a century project requiring advanced technology and ecological protection [2][3] - The government is focusing on optimizing agricultural production and ensuring the employment of migrant workers and those who have escaped poverty, highlighting the importance of data-driven monitoring and support measures [3] - The establishment of the Housing Rental Regulations aims to fill legal gaps in the housing rental industry, emphasizing the need for accurate information and regulatory compliance among rental agencies and enterprises [4][5] Group 2 - The draft amendment to the Price Law seeks to clarify standards for unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping and price collusion, to regulate market order and prevent "involution" competition [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission is taking steps to address "involution" competition by promoting cooperation between state-owned and private enterprises, enhancing industrial chain collaboration, and fostering technological innovation [7][8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working to standardize competition in the new energy vehicle industry, focusing on product safety, quality, and fair market practices [9][10] Group 3 - The Market Supervision Administration is addressing "involution" competition in the quality sector by strengthening market access management and enhancing quality safety supervision [11][12] - The new tax policies for Hainan Free Trade Port aim to reduce production costs for local enterprises and stimulate market activity by exempting certain goods from import taxes [13][14] - The focus on local government behavior in the context of "involution" highlights the need for regulatory measures to prevent excessive competition and ensure sustainable economic growth [18][19][20]