Global Macro Assets - Major overseas stock indices showed mixed performance during the New Year holiday, with the US indices collectively declining: Nasdaq down 1.6%, Dow Jones down 1.4%, and S&P 500 down 1.1% [2][7] - Long-term government bond yields in major developed countries mostly rebounded, with the 10Y US Treasury yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [9][12] - Oil prices continued to weaken, with WTI and Brent crude down 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while gold prices quickly retreated by 3.7% after reaching a historical high [12][13] Overseas Fundamentals & Data - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a division of opinions among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some supporting a pause in rate cuts [15][19] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 were 199,000, lower than the expected 218,000 [17][18] - The US military conducted a large-scale airstrike in Venezuela, marking an escalation in military pressure on President Maduro's regime [20][19] - President Trump announced a delay in tariff increases on imported furniture and kitchen cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027 [25][26] Domestic Events & Data - The intensity of domestic travel during the New Year holiday increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% in cross-regional daily passenger flow [30][37] - Domestic tourism, particularly "ice and snow tourism" and "winter escape tourism," saw a notable rise, while cross-border travel experienced a decline [43][28] - The average ticket price for economy class flights during the New Year holiday was 597 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [50] - The film market showed steady recovery, with average daily box office revenue increasing by 42.5% compared to the same period in 2025 [53]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "AI bubble" as a significant topic among global investors, particularly in the context of the 2026 outlook from various investment banks, highlighting the volatility in capital markets and concerns over the sustainability of AI capital expenditure cycles and profitability realization [1]. Group 1: Technology - The article emphasizes the complex system of innovation and technology evolution, proposing a "technology-economy-power" paradigm that integrates technological innovation with economic and social institutional evolution [2]. - It notes that historically, core countries have been the main providers of innovation, while peripheral countries can catch up through institutional innovation and learning effects [2]. Group 2: Economic Cycles and Bubbles - The article outlines that technological innovation and total factor productivity are the primary explanations for the increase in per capita GDP, which is also the main path for a country to enhance its global economic power [2]. - It references historical examples of industrial revolutions, indicating that to transition from a peripheral to a core country, a new wave of technological revolution is often necessary [2]. Group 3: Recommended Literature - The article lists 20 classic books categorized into three units: technology, economy (cycles and bubbles), and power, with a focus on the essence of technology, the economic long cycles shaped by technological innovation, and how technology influences the world system [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The December PMI index shows a recovery driven by new momentum and the consumer goods sector, with a reduction in the debt-extraction effect and resilient exports supporting the index [1][4][53]. Group 1: PMI Recovery - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, marking a return to the growth line after nine months, despite a decline in high-frequency indicators such as blast furnace operations and freight volume [1][5][53]. - The production and new orders indices increased by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, indicating improved manufacturing activity [1][5][53]. Group 2: Support from New Momentum - PMI in sectors related to new momentum showed significant improvement, although the sustainability of this trend requires further observation due to a lack of corresponding high-frequency indicators [1][12][54]. - Traditional industries like black metal rolling and chemical fibers saw a decline in PMI, while emerging sectors such as electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals experienced a rise [1][12][54]. Group 3: Consumer Sector Improvement - The overall consumer goods sector PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, with notable recovery in areas less affected by demand exhaustion risks, such as textiles and apparel, which rose by 4.5 percentage points [2][15][54]. Group 4: Construction Sector Recovery - The construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating a reduction in the marginal impact of debt-extraction on investment, supported by the easing of special refinancing bond issues and the implementation of incremental policies [2][18][54]. - Both housing and civil engineering activities improved, with respective increases of 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points [2][18][54]. Group 5: Export Resilience - The domestic order index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while the new export orders index improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49%, indicating ongoing resilience in exports [2][22][55]. - High-frequency indicators showed a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points in port foreign trade freight volume, maintaining a high level [2][22][55]. Group 6: Economic Growth Outlook - The combination of accelerating new momentum and proactive incremental policies suggests that economic growth will remain resilient, despite traditional momentum facing downward pressure [3][27][55]. - The manufacturing PMI's recovery, driven by new momentum and consumer sectors, alongside improvements in the construction PMI, indicates a positive outlook for economic activity [3][27][55].

Core Viewpoints - Industrial enterprise profits continue to decline, primarily due to a significant drop in the contribution from other gains and ongoing cost pressures [3][64] - In November, industrial enterprise profits fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year to -13.4%, with profit margins also decreasing [6][33] - The decline in profits is attributed to a notable decrease in other gains, which fell by 9.4 percentage points to -5.1% [3][64] Revenue - In November, industrial enterprise revenue showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, slightly down from 1.8% in the previous month [2][8] - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, rose by 3.1 percentage points to 3.1%, positively impacting profit contributions [4][27] - Revenue growth was observed across major industrial chains, with the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains all experiencing increases [4][27] Costs - Industrial enterprises faced significant cost pressures in November, with the overall cost rate at 84.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [4][23] - The metallurgy chain experienced the highest cost pressure, with a cost rate of 85.4%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than last year [4][23] - Certain sectors, such as non-ferrous rolling and instrumentation, saw notable increases in cost rates, while the petrochemical and consumer chains experienced slight declines [4][23] Industry Performance - Specific industries, such as beverages and food, saw a dramatic decline in profit growth, with beverage profits dropping by 93.4 percentage points to -90.4% [3][17] - The negative contributions from industries like non-ferrous processing and oil and gas extraction further impacted overall profit performance [3][17] - Despite some revenue recovery, the pressures from other gains and costs significantly affected profitability in these sectors [3][17] Inventory - The nominal inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.6% in November, indicating a slight rise in actual inventory growth [6][50] - The actual inventory growth rate, adjusted for price factors, was 7.7%, reflecting changes in inventory management across different sectors [6][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the RMB, its potential sustainability, and the medium-term outlook for the currency amidst changing economic conditions and external factors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent RMB Appreciation - The rapid appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index from 99.4 to below 98, influenced by lower interest rate differentials and expectations of intervention by the Bank of Japan [2]. - A surge in currency settlement activity is anticipated to begin this week, with the actual swap points rising significantly, indicating increased trading volume [2]. Group 2: Short-term Sustainability of RMB Appreciation - The ongoing currency settlement wave is expected to support the RMB, with historical data suggesting that after two consecutive quarters of appreciation, the settlement rate typically improves [3]. - The delayed impact of the February Spring Festival may also contribute to the continued improvement in settlement rates over the next month [3]. Group 3: Medium-term Outlook for RMB - With nominal GDP recovery, the RMB and USD may enter a phase of mutual strength, supported by reduced debt pressure and improved investment and profitability by 2026 [4]. - Enhanced external demand and increased export share are expected to bolster the resilience of exports, transitioning the economy from a confidence-building phase to a "non-typical" recovery, which may sustain the RMB's strength [4].

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 报告正文 （一）中财办解读 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神 中央财办有关负责同志12月16日接受中央主要媒体采访，围绕宏观政策、提振消费、扩大投资、全国统 一大市场建设、高质量充分就业等主题深入解读中央经济工作会议精神。财政政策方面：政策力度上，保持 必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量；政策质效上，提高精准性和有效性；实施时机上，主动靠前发 力。货币政策方面：把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量；加力支持扩大内需、科 技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 | 图表 18: 中财办同志解读 2025年中央经济工作会议精研 | | | --- | --- | | 时间 主题 | 解读内容 | | | 展望明年，世界经济有望延续温和增长态势，但变数较多。从国内看，我们面临的困难挑战不少，但经济基础稳、优势多、和性强、潜 | | 经济形势 | 能大等长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变...投资和消费增速明年有望恢复，产业转型升级加快，科技和产业创新进入成果集中爆发 | | | 阶段,我国经济发展前景是十分光明的。 | | | 政策力度上，保持必要的财 ...

中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释放的增量信息与政策信号有何深 意？本文分析，可供参考。 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体，突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方向，密集开展会议精神的学习、 解读与部署工作。 各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消费结构演变等，财税部门聚焦财力保障，经济大省侧重开放布 局，边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。 融 资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"，与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变 化。 内需方面，中财办提出把握消费结构性变化，坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。 其指出"我国正在从以商品消费为主转向商品 消费和服务消费并重"，契合今年消费现状；投资方面则聚焦消费类基建，并提出"靠前实施具备条件的'十五五'重大项目"。 改革方面，中财办注重统一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in the Chinese economy, highlighting its causes, impacts, and policy responses, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to promote high-quality economic development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Causes and Impacts of Involution - The current "involution" is characterized by long-term negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and low capacity utilization rates in mid- and downstream industries, which squeeze corporate profits and hinder industrial upgrades [3][4][5]. - The deep-rooted causes of this "involution" include the differentiation of old and new economic drivers during the economic transition period and the homogeneous and disorderly competition among local governments pursuing GDP and fiscal revenue [4][5][11]. - The "involution" phenomenon has created a spiral contraction cycle of "price-income-consumption," severely restricting healthy economic development and transformation [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Responses - Successful containment of "involution" is essential not only for stabilizing short-term economic growth but also for transitioning China's economy from factor-driven to innovation-driven, achieving high-quality development [5][6]. - Policy measures should focus on coordinated efforts from both supply and demand sides, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion [5][6]. - On the supply side, strategies include production adjustment, elimination of outdated capacity, and optimizing industrial structure to enhance product quality [5][6]. - On the demand side, there is a need to vigorously develop resident service consumption, release consumption potential through fiscal subsidies and social security improvements, and guide employment from manufacturing to services [5][6]. Group 3: Evolution of Anti-Involution Policies - Since mid-2024, high-level meetings have continuously addressed the need to combat "involution," with a clear policy commitment to prevent "malicious competition" [6][10]. - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the establishment of a unified national market and the need to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [7][10]. - The current anti-involution policies are characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger synergy compared to previous supply-side reforms [10][11]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Background and Industry Characteristics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure from continuously declining prices, with the PPI experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months, and industrial capacity utilization rates at historical lows [15][18]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises is under significant pressure, with many industries experiencing negative profit growth, particularly in mid- and downstream sectors [18][21]. - The phenomenon of "involution" is more complex and diverse compared to 2015, with competition shifting from traditional sectors to new areas, leading to lower capacity utilization rates in high-demand sectors [23][24]. Group 5: Recommendations and Future Directions - The article suggests that lessons from international experiences, such as industry consolidation and market clearing, could be beneficial in addressing the challenges posed by "involution" [31][32]. - It emphasizes the importance of combining total quantity policies with structural policies to effectively address the "involution" dilemma [34][37]. - Long-term strategies should focus on accelerating the development of the service sector to adapt to changing consumer preferences and demographic trends, thereby addressing the structural unemployment issues arising from the transition [38][40].

Group 1: Industrial Production and Construction - Industrial production continues to show weakness, with blast furnace operating rates and steel apparent consumption lower than the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.1% week-on-week and increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to -1.1%. Steel apparent consumption fell by 0.5% week-on-week and increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to -4.1% [1][13] - The steel social inventory continues to decline, down 3.7% week-on-week [1] - In the construction sector, cement production and demand are weak, with the nationwide grinding operating rate decreasing by 2.5% week-on-week and increasing by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4%. Cement shipment rates fell by 1.7% week-on-week and decreased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.3% [25][29] Group 2: Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing remains low, with major cities experiencing weaker sales. The average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.4% week-on-week and increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -28.5%. First and second-tier cities saw sales decline by 10.4% and 13.5% week-on-week, respectively, while third-tier cities improved by 27.8% week-on-week [49][50] - Port cargo throughput has decreased, but remains higher than the same period last year. Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic have also declined, down 0.1 percentage points to -2.1% and 1.7% to -2.1% year-on-year, respectively [61][62] Group 3: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and vegetable prices declining by 0.3% week-on-week, while fruit and egg prices increased by 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively [103][104] - The industrial product price index has decreased, indicating a general decline in industrial prices [116][119]

Group 1 - The current high level of human flow is not primarily due to a "return home tide," as the flow is stable rather than exhibiting the typical pulse-like increase associated with such a phenomenon [2][3][8] - The national migration index remains at a high level of approximately 15.3% year-on-year, contrasting with previous years where significant declines were observed post-National Day [2][8] - The recent decline in industrial production and infrastructure investment has led to reduced labor demand, prompting many workers to return home earlier than usual [2][8][19] Group 2 - The sustained high level of human flow is supported by several factors, including the introduction of autumn holiday policies, increased business travel, and warmer winter weather [4][5][33] - Multiple regions, including Sichuan and Zhejiang, have implemented autumn holiday policies that significantly boost residents' willingness to travel, with migration indices showing substantial increases compared to the first half of the year [4][33][38] - Business travel has also increased, with domestic and international flight operations showing year-on-year growth of approximately 2% and 10%, respectively [4][46][47] Group 3 - High levels of human flow are expected to drive service consumption, particularly in sectors like dining and accommodation, indicating a robust service consumption environment [6][64][100] - The divergence between the national migration index and retail sales growth suggests that service consumption may be more resilient than goods consumption [6][64][100] - There is a notable trend of consumption shifting from goods to services, influenced by factors such as urbanization and demographic changes, which may enhance demand for leisure and entertainment services [6][76][100] Group 4 - Looking ahead, while goods consumption may face challenges, the potential for service consumption remains significant, with estimates indicating a gap of nearly 3 trillion yuan in service consumption compared to potential levels [6][101] - Policies aimed at stimulating consumption are increasingly focused on the service sector, including initiatives like extended holidays and consumer vouchers [6][101] - The current economic environment suggests that service consumption growth may outpace that of goods, reflecting a long-term trend towards service-oriented spending [6][101]