Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on legal governance of low-price competition and enhancing market systems [1][2] - The People's Bank of China proposed to strengthen monetary policy adjustments, maintain liquidity, and support financial institutions in increasing credit supply to stabilize economic growth [4][5] - The State Council issued a plan to improve the credit repair system, aiming to create a better social credit environment and facilitate the normal operation of restructured enterprises [6][7] Group 2 - The State Council highlighted the importance of accelerating technological breakthroughs and integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation to enhance competitiveness [8][9] - The National People's Congress Finance and Economic Committee reviewed the 2024 central budget, identifying issues in budget management and suggesting reforms to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating a complex interplay of commodity prices and domestic demand [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, supported by strong food prices and precious metals [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by oversupply in sectors such as steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month drop in PPI, while rising international oil prices provided some support [2][9][69]. - Food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and beef, saw significant increases, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.9 percentage points to -0.4% year-on-year, contributing positively to CPI [12][47][69]. Group 2: Core Commodity PPI and CPI Trends - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - The decline in prices for industries with high export ratios, such as computer communications and electrical machinery, indicates ongoing price pressures [21][70]. - Conversely, core commodity CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies, with notable price increases in durable goods and household textiles [27][70]. Group 3: Service CPI and Housing Market - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8% [30][61][71]. - The rental component of the service CPI showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average [30][71]. - The overall stability in service demand contrasts with the weaker performance of housing-related costs, indicating potential challenges in the housing market [30][71]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, although significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year [35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disruptions, low global oil inventories, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices further [35][70]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream sectors poses challenges for PPI recovery, suggesting that PPI will likely remain weak compared to CPI in the coming months [35][70].

Group 1 - The "Beautiful Bill" expands the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies [2][6][9] - The bill legalizes Trump's economic policies, enhancing federal control over local governments and increasing discretionary power in key areas [2][6] - The economic effects include a mild boost to the U.S. economy, benefiting traditional industries while negatively impacting low-income groups [3][21][32] Group 2 - The bill is expected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by an average of 0.1% from 2025 to 2034, with the most significant impact occurring between 2026 and 2028 [21][22] - The legislation will lead to a 3.9% income decrease for the lowest 10% of households, while the highest 10% will see an average increase of 2.3% [3][32] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries will benefit from investment depreciation incentives, while the renewable energy sector may suffer due to reduced subsidies [32][55] Group 3 - The supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with a relatively friendly macro environment, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums [4][35] - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise moderately, with tariff revenues potentially offsetting 54% of the deficit increase [40][56] - The bill is unlikely to trigger a significant debt crisis, but it may systematically elevate term premiums [5][45][56]

Group 1: Major Asset & Overseas Events & Data - The three major US stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.3% [2][3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 6.0 basis points to 4.4% [2][3] - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to 96.99, while the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.1701 [2][3] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.5% to $66.5 per barrel, and COMEX gold increased by 1.9% to $3332.5 per ounce [2][3] Group 2: Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded market expectations, with an addition of 147,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [51][52] - The primary driver of job growth was an increase in state and local government employment [51] - The average hourly wage increased by 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3% [51] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Risks - The 90-day "tariff suspension" on US imports is set to expire on July 9, raising concerns about potential tariff increases [41][42] - Approximately 20 countries with slow negotiation progress may see the restoration of initial tariff rates unless recognized as "good faith negotiators" [41] - Vietnam is facing a potential 20% tariff on its goods, with a 40% tariff on third-country goods transshipped through Vietnam [41][42] Group 4: Bond Market - The demand for US Treasury auctions remained robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.26 for the 4-week bill, indicating strong interest [44][45] - The indirect bid percentage reached 78.6%, the highest in recent months, reflecting increased interest from overseas officials and money funds [44][45] Group 5: Commodity Market - Most commodities saw price increases, with WTI crude oil up 1.5% and COMEX gold up 1.9% [31][35] - The inflation expectations rose by 4 basis points to 2.3% [35]

Group 1 - The recent depreciation of the US dollar is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, indicating a cyclical rather than a structural trend [2][4][12] - As of July 4, the US dollar index fell below 97, marking a 4.7% decline from its peak on May 12, with significant depreciation against major currencies [6][82] - The decline in the dollar is also linked to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Israel-Palestine conflict, which has reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar [4][24][86] Group 2 - The narrative of "de-dollarization" has not accelerated in recent years, with the dollar's share of global reserves only decreasing from 55% in 2016 to 52% in 2024 when excluding China [3][42][44] - The correlation between the US GDP share and the dollar index is weak when excluding valuation effects, suggesting that fundamental trends may have limited impact on the dollar's value [3][30][36] - Recent capital flows indicate a temporary flight from US assets, but foreign investment in US Treasuries has stabilized since mid-May, questioning the sustainability of this trend [3][54][55] Group 3 - Potential scenarios for a strengthening dollar include rising inflation pressures leading to delayed interest rate cuts, which could support a rebound in the dollar index [5][65][88] - The implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" may boost US economic growth, potentially leading to a stronger dollar as financial conditions ease [5][78][88] - High levels of short positions against the dollar may create conditions for a short-term rebound, as seen in historical patterns when similar positions were reached [5][72][88]

Group 1 - The phenomenon of "involution" is most pronounced among young people, with average weekly working hours increasing by over 4 hours in the past five years. The average weekly working hours for employees aged 25-34 rose from 46.7 hours in 2018 to 50.8 hours in 2023 [3][28] - In the manufacturing and productive service sectors, the "involution" phenomenon is particularly evident, while the working hours in real estate, infrastructure, and life service industries have decreased. From 2018 to 2023, the working hours in manufacturing increased by 0.7 hours, while life service industries saw a significant increase of 3.7 hours [2][21][150] - The average daily working time in China has increased by 21 minutes from 2018 to 2023, reaching 48.3 hours per week, which has led to a reduction in the time residents spend on purchasing goods and services from 80 minutes per day to 43 minutes per day [2][9][150] Group 2 - Current policies to combat "involution" focus on encouraging flexible work arrangements and paid leave, but these measures primarily address symptoms rather than the root causes of prolonged working hours. The "Promoting Consumption Special Action Plan" suggests exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools [4][35][150] - The root cause of "involution" is the uneven distribution of employment across industries, with excessive employment in manufacturing leading to "involution" and insufficient employment in the service sector. Tariffs could accelerate the shift of employment from manufacturing to services, achieving a rebalancing [4][48][150] - There is a significant short-term employment gap in the life service industry, with a potential to absorb more jobs. In 2023, there was a 1.5 trillion yuan gap between service employment and value added, indicating a shortage of jobs in sectors like cultural entertainment and residential services [5][61][150] Group 3 - The long-term direction for combating "involution" involves aligning supply structures with changing demand structures, as residents' demand is showing a long-term trend towards "servicization." Global experiences indicate that as GDP per capita reaches 10,000 to 30,000 USD and urbanization rates hit 70%, the proportion of services in total consumption increases by approximately 0.6% annually [6][85][150] - The aging population is expected to increase the demand for service consumption, with each 1% increase in the aging rate correlating with a 1.3% rise in service consumption share. This trend is evident in countries like Japan and South Korea [6][93][150] - The trend of smaller household sizes is further stimulating demand for enjoyment-based services, indicating a robust growth potential for service consumption. In China, the average household size has decreased to 2.8 people, which is associated with higher spending on services like tourism and beauty [6][101][150]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a high furnace operating rate holding steady at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][9] - Chemical production shows signs of recovery, with operating rates for soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament increasing by 1.9 percentage points to -3.5%, 0.4 percentage points to 2.2%, and 0.5 percentage points to 4.2% respectively [2][17] - However, the operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires has significantly declined, down 7.7 percentage points to -9.0% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - Asphalt production shows marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points to 6.8% [2][41] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down 1.8 percentage points to -4.2% year-on-year, while the national grinding operating rate is up 0.6 percentage points to -1.3% [2][29] Group 3: Demand Trends - Real estate transactions have significantly decreased, with average daily transaction area for new homes down 37.8% year-on-year to 32.7% [2][53] - Freight volumes related to exports have declined, with port cargo throughput down 3% year-on-year to 0.6% [2][62] - Conversely, travel intensity remains high, with the national migration scale index up 0.3 percentage points to 14.5% [2][74] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with prices for eggs, fruits, vegetables, and pork down by 2.2%, 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [3][104] - Industrial product prices have seen a slight increase, with the South China industrial price index rising by 0.3% [3][116] - The metal price index increased by 1.8%, while the energy and chemical price index fell by 1% [3][116] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Railway freight volume has increased, up 0.9 percentage points to 3.3% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput has decreased [2][62] - Domestic flight operations have increased, with domestic flights up 1.9% year-on-year to 3.4% [2][74] Group 6: Consumer Behavior - Movie attendance has slightly decreased, down 2.6 percentage points to 5.7% year-on-year, but box office revenue has increased by 0.3% [2][80] - Automobile sales have shown a significant recovery, with retail and wholesale volumes up 9% to 26.7% and 23.8% to 48.7% respectively [2][80] Group 7: Export Trends - Container shipping prices have decreased, with the CCFI composite index down 1.9% [2][92] - The freight rate for the US West Coast has dropped significantly, down 10.5% [2][92]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 削减支出方面，参议院加大医疗等福利支出削减力度、加快退出风电等新能源补贴。 医疗补助削减规模 从8000亿美元扩大到9300亿美元，或使1030万名低收入人群失去保障；食品券支出收紧；9月30日起取消 新能源购车抵免；为安抚农村票仓，新增250亿农村医院基金。 报告正文 2025年7月2日，《美丽大法案》在参议院以51比50的微弱优势获得通过。法案包括哪些内容？《美丽大 法案》的经济影响有多大？ 一、《美丽大法案》立法进展？参议院投票通过，立法进入冲刺阶段 《美丽大法案》已通过参议院投票环节，立法进入冲刺阶段。 北京时间2025年7月2日，《美丽大法案》 在参议院以51比50的微弱优势获得通过。三名共和党参议员柯林斯、蒂利斯、保罗因医保支出、债务上 限等问题与47名民主党人共同投票反对，副总统万斯投出关键一票。 流程上，法案仍需众议院审核，法案内容存在进一步修改的可能。 后续立法流程为：众议院规则委员会 审议→辩论→众议院投票→总统签署生效。预计众议院最早于美国时间7月2日上午审议该法案。若众议 院否决参议院的修改，则可能需进一步谈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" as a key macroeconomic policy in China, especially under the dual challenges of stabilizing growth and external pressures. It advocates for a combination of short-term stimulus measures and long-term structural reforms to enhance consumer capacity and confidence [1][2]. Summary by Sections Historical Consumption Promotion Toolbox - China's past consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies and indirect support measures. Direct measures include subsidies for rural areas, "trade-in" subsidies, and consumption vouchers, while indirect measures involve tax reductions and fee exemptions [3]. - Significant past initiatives include the "home appliance and motorcycle to the countryside" policies from 2007 to 2012, and various tax incentives for automobile purchases from 2014 to 2017 [3][4]. Effectiveness of Consumption Promotion Policies - The first round of home appliance and motorcycle policies resulted in substantial sales growth, with a reported sales revenue of 6,597.6 billion yuan against a subsidy expenditure of 765 billion yuan, yielding a fiscal multiplier of 8.6 [6]. - The policies led to a notable increase in the ownership of home appliances in rural areas, with refrigerator and air conditioner ownership rising significantly during the implementation period [6][7]. Current Consumption Promotion Measures - The recent "trade-in" policy has shown significant results, with a 39% year-on-year increase in sales of home appliances in December 2024 following the policy's implementation [9]. - Service consumption recovery remains a challenge, with current levels still below pre-2019 trends. The article suggests expanding consumption promotion policies to include service sectors to stimulate recovery [10]. Long-term Mechanisms for Consumption Growth - To sustain consumption growth, it is essential to focus on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents. This includes improving pension levels and implementing targeted subsidies for key demographics such as the elderly and children [11][12]. - The article highlights the need for a policy framework that combines short-term effectiveness with long-term structural reforms, particularly in income distribution and social security systems, to transition from "policy-driven consumption" to "endogenous growth-driven consumption" [13].

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 6月30日，国家统计局公布6月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.7%、前值49.5%；非制造业PMI为 50.5%、前值50.3%。 却下行至2023年来最低水平（52%）。展望后续，设备更新周期逐步退坡，出口链生产走弱，制造业景 气面临较大下行压力。但近期扩内需政策再加码，5000亿服务消费再贷款、准财政工具（政策性开发性 金融工具）已对服务业投资进行部署，服务消费、基建投资或加快修复，有望对企业和居民预期形成支 撑。 常规跟踪：制造业、非制造业景气均有改善。 制造业：制造业：制造业PMI有所回升，生产、新订单指数延续改善。 6月，制造业PMI边际上行0.2pct 至49.7%。生产、新订单指数边际分别上行0.3、0.3pct至51%、50.2%。 核心观点：制造业景气回升，但企业预期降至低位；政策加码下，需关注微观预期的变化。 6月制造业PMI表现好于市场预期，结构上依然是生产指数恢复更好。 6月制造业PMI延续回升，边际上 行0.2pct至49.7%，好于市场预期（WIND，49.3%）。主要分项中，生产、新订单指数 ...