Group 1: Market Performance - Developed markets experienced a rebound, with major indices such as the Nasdaq rising by 3.9% and the S&P 500 by 2.4% [2][3] - Emerging markets also saw gains, with the Ho Chi Minh Index up 6.0% and the Cairo CASE 30 up 4.7%, while the Indian SENSEX fell by 0.9% [3][11] - The Hang Seng Index and related indices all rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 1.2% [11] Group 2: Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices fell by 7.8% to $63.9 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped by 8.4% to $66.4 per barrel [26][27] - Coking coal prices surged by 12.3% to 1,227 yuan per ton, indicating strong demand [26][30] - Precious metals saw an increase, with COMEX gold rising by 1.3% to $3,403.5 per ounce and silver up by 4.4% to $38.4 per ounce [30][31] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI for July in the U.S. was reported at 50.1, below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating a slowdown in the services sector [40] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for July is anticipated to show a core CPI month-over-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [43][44] - Germany's industrial production for June fell by 1.9%, significantly below the expected decline of 0.5%, suggesting ongoing economic weakness [46] Group 4: Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on all imported semiconductor chips, with exemptions for companies that establish or commit to establishing manufacturing in the U.S. [32] - Additionally, a 25% tariff on Indian goods was implemented, totaling 50%, effective from August 28 [32] Group 5: Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury auction for 10-year bonds saw weaker demand, with a high yield of 4.26% and a tail of 1.13 basis points, indicating reduced interest from investors [34] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.0 basis points to 4.3%, while yields on other developed market bonds generally declined [16][19] Group 6: Federal Reserve Developments - President Trump nominated Miran to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, which may influence future monetary policy [36] - Market reactions to the nomination included a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting expectations of a more dovish stance [36]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人| 赵宇 摘要 8月12日，中美关税暂停措施即将到期。从美国近期与日本、欧盟等经济体达成的"投资换关税"贸易协议来看，后续关税风险能否缓和，还存在哪些潜在贸易 冲突？ 热点思考： 美国贸易协议中的"虚虚实实" （一） 贸易谈判进度？谈判进程已近半，美国实质建立了三档分层关税 欧盟需将对美年均投资规模翻2.6倍才能实现投资承诺，由于资金主要来源私营企业，约束力较低。 欧盟承诺对美新增投资6000亿美元，美国强调这笔投资属 于增量概念。2024年欧盟对美投资1244亿美元，欧盟若在特朗普任期内兑现，平均每年投资总规模需达到3200亿美元。 日本对美投资资金主体为贷款，韩国承诺规模短期内难以落地。 日本承诺投资5500亿美元，但其中98%为贷款，且年均投资额需达2024年的4.7倍才能兑现； 韩国承诺投资3500亿美元，相当于韩国财政支出的53%，需在三年内将对美国FDI抬升至过去三十年的总和的。 欧盟能源采购目标与现实落差极大，韩国采购目标可行度较高。 欧盟承诺的年均能源采购规模相当于2024年进口美国能源总量的3倍，若全面兑现，美国接近 八成的能源出口须改向欧洲 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 8 . 2 - 8 . 8 周度研究成果 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 美国劳动力市场：脆弱的"紧平衡" 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.8.4 美国7月就业数据弱于市场预期，引发市场震动，核心问题在于5、6月就业的大幅下修。就业下修的背后是统计 因素，还是经济走弱？联储9月降息是否已是"板上钉钉"？ 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 高频跟踪 1、热点思考 | 美国劳动力市场：脆弱的"紧平衡" 2、月度前瞻 | 7月经济：涨价的"悖论"？ 3、热点思考 | "隐债问责" ，有何新变化？ 1、7月出口的"新主线" 2、国内高频 | 港口货运量出现较大幅度回落 电话会议 | 特斯 | 就业总人数 白比(%) | | | | | | | | | 新增非农就业人数 季调(千人) | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoints - The weak performance of PPI is attributed to two "dark lines": the timing of statistics and low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors [2][8][69] - In July, PPI continued to bottom out, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2% and a year-on-year rate of -3.6%, which was below market expectations [2][8][69] - The rise in commodity prices did not fully reflect in the PPI due to the timing of price surveys, which did not capture late-month price increases [2][8][69] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by a significant drag from mid and downstream prices, which contributed to a -0.3% impact on PPI [2][13][69] - The PPI performance was also affected by tariffs, with industries heavily reliant on exports experiencing downward price pressure [2][13][69] - High-frequency data showed a divergence from PPI trends, with coal and steel prices recovering, while coal mining and black metal processing remained negative [2][8][69] CPI Analysis - In July, the core CPI rose to its highest level in a year and a half, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies [3][20][70] - The CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.4% was slightly above the average since 2017, with core CPI rising 0.8% year-on-year [3][20][70] - The demand for core services improved due to summer travel, although rental prices remained weak [3][28][70] Food Prices Impact - Food prices were weak, constraining the CPI's recovery, with food CPI down 1.6% year-on-year, a decline that expanded by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [4][33][71] - Fresh vegetable prices fell significantly, contributing to the downward pressure on CPI [4][33][71] - The supply of pork continued to rise, leading to lower pork prices, which also impacted the overall food CPI [4][34][71] Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost commodity prices, but excess supply in the mid and downstream sectors may limit the transmission of upstream price increases [4][39][71] - The forecast suggests that inflation will remain weak throughout the year, with limited recovery in both PPI and CPI due to the current supply-demand dynamics [4][39][71] - Core commodity CPI may be suppressed by downstream PPI, and agricultural supply is expected to remain ample, leading to moderate improvements in CPI [4][39][71]

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 报告正文 2．政策高频：7月中央政治局召开会议 2.1 7月中央政治局召开会议 7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议指出，下 半年要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，宏观政策要持续发力。要落实 落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。要深入实施提振消费专项行动，纵深推进全国统一大市 场建设，推动市场竞争秩序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治理，规范地方招 商引资行为。要突出就业优先政策导向，高质量开展城市更新，做好"十五五"规划编制工作。会议还决定 10 月召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议。 | Filip | 事件 | 会议议程 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 分析当前经 | 我国经济运行稳中有进,高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好, | | | | 济形势 | 民生兜底保障进一步加强,我国经济展现强大活力和韧性。 | | | | | 坚持稳中求进工作总基调,加快构建新发展格局,保持政策 ...

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 摘要 2022 年新一轮隐债化解工作推进以来，财政部共通报 44 起"隐债问责"典例，背后透露哪些信息，2025 年"隐债问责"典例通报有何不同？系统梳理，供参考。 "隐债问责"典例，透露的信息？地方隐债监管力度加强，问责主体深入至区县级 随着地方隐债化解工作进入深水区，近日财政部再度通报地方政府隐性债务问责典型案例。 2018 年《地 方政府隐性债务问责办法》落地后，2021 年《关于进一步深化预算管理制度改革 的意见》推出，推动新 一轮隐性债务化解工作开启。政策指引下，2022 年以来财政部共通报 44 起"隐债问责"典例，从中或可了 解地方隐债"症结"以及化债工作推进情况。 2025年"隐债问责"更聚焦政府项目落地过程中新增隐债行为。 2025 年的 12 起问责案例，更关注基层政 府项目建设带来的新增隐债，例如违规捆绑包装政府和社会资本合作项目，违规筹资、垫付资金实施高 标准农田改造提升项目、地一级开发项目、安置型商品房项目等。 2025"隐债问责"通报典例中，新增隐债投向出现用于支付棚户区改造贷款本息、用于实施高标准农田改 造提升项目等。 2024 ...

Group 1: Inflation and Policy Response - The core focus of July's policy is on "anti-involution," with multiple departments addressing the phenomenon of market "involution" [2][11] - The expected inflation rates for July are projected at -3.1% for PPI and 0% for CPI, indicating weak price performance despite rising commodity prices [2][11] - The increase in commodity prices is driven by expectations of supply contraction, but excess supply in downstream sectors limits the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [2][24] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Industrial production remains resilient, with July's industrial value added expected to be around 6.4%, despite a decline in new orders [4][61] - The PMI production index indicates that production is still expanding, with notable increases in sectors like general equipment and black metal rolling [4][55] - The supply situation is characterized by a divergence, where production is better than demand, contrary to market expectations of significant supply contraction [4][48] Group 3: Demand Structure - Demand is showing signs of differentiation, with weak goods demand but stronger service demand, leading to a projected slight decline in actual GDP to 4.9% for July [6][73] - Export performance is expected to exceed expectations in July due to the residual effects of "export grabbing," but there are concerns about a potential decline in exports in September [6][73] - The consumer market is experiencing a potential decline in goods consumption due to a "subsidy gap" in the "old-for-new" program, while service consumption is expected to improve due to increased travel activity [8][89] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed, with real estate and manufacturing investments likely to decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments may see improvement [8][102] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support infrastructure investment, with asphalt construction rates showing an upward trend [8][102] - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to the nearing end of equipment renewal demand, while real estate investment is likely to continue weakening [8][102] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The main logic of economic operation in July revolves around "price increases," but the sustainability of these increases is relatively weak due to supply-side production increases and weak demand [9][112] - The overall economic indicators suggest a nominal GDP growth of 3.9% and an actual GDP growth of 4.9% for July, reflecting the current economic conditions [9][112]

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, with materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials down 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - The yield on 10-year bonds in other developed markets also fell, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly declined, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇、赵宇、李欣越 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 美国7月就业数据弱于市场预期，引发市场震动，核心问题在于5、6月就业的大幅下修。就业下修的背后 是统计因素，还是经济走弱？联储9月降息是否已是"板上钉钉"？ 热点思考：美国劳动力市场：脆弱的"紧平衡" 一问：美国非农数据的"预期差"？并不是7月有多差，而是5、6月没有那么好。 7月非农新增就业略弱于 预期，但关键是5、6月就业人数下修12.5、13.3万人。结构上，就业下修主要集中在政府部门。5-7月非 农就业数据卸下了美国劳动力市场"紧平衡"的"伪装"。 二问：5、6月就业为何被大幅下修？统计因素难以解释，主因是就业市场转弱。 市场猜测"统计因素"是 此次非农下修的主因。但是，经分析发现，企业生死假设、季调、回复率均无法完全解释就业下修。历 史上，非农下修往往对应着经济走弱的背景，对于此次数据或更具解释力。 三问：劳动力市场趋势如何？供需双双走弱，失业率易上难下。 美国就业市场已实质性进入"松弛化"阶 段。需求侧，失业的"流量"结果数据显示劳动力需求持续走弱；供给侧，特朗普驱逐移民、移民流入减 少可一定程度上削减就业供给，但难以完全对冲需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic trends and policies in China, focusing on fiscal spending, child-rearing subsidies, and the implications of the "involution" phenomenon in different sectors [6][12][21]. Group 1: Currency and Economic Policies - The article highlights the weak yen amidst political turmoil, analyzing the reasons behind its depreciation and potential future developments [9]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced supply-demand relationship in industries to address the "involution" issue, suggesting that local governments play a crucial role in this process [12][21]. Group 2: Fiscal Spending and Child-Rearing Subsidies - Fiscal spending has accelerated significantly in the first half of the year, raising questions about whether this high growth rate can be sustained in the latter half [17]. - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies is expected to have systemic impacts on employment, education, and healthcare, with various regions implementing different subsidy policies [19][20]. Group 3: Industrial Performance and Economic Outlook - The industrial profit data for June indicates improvements in costs and revenues, supporting a recovery in profits, although the "involution" trend may limit further declines in profits [21]. - The July Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, marking a shift towards "high-quality" investments [23]. Group 4: Market Trends and International Relations - The article notes that the PMI data for July reflects a paradox where anti-involution policies have led to price increases, yet supply-demand dynamics and industry changes appear counterintuitive [25]. - Recent agreements on tariffs between the US and Japan have resulted in positive market reactions in developed markets, indicating a potential for increased trade cooperation [28]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Activity - Despite a relatively weak industrial production environment, port cargo volumes remain strong, suggesting resilience in certain sectors [29]. - The article also tracks domestic policy developments, including the public consultation on the price law amendment, which reflects ongoing regulatory adjustments [31].