Market Overview - The three major indices closed on the last trading day of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.09%, marking an 11-day winning streak and an annual increase of 18.41%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% but recorded a 29.87% annual gain, while the ChiNext Index dropped 1.23% but saw a significant annual increase of 49.57%. The STAR 50 Index rose 35.92% and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index increased by 38.8% throughout the year [2]. Sector Performance - On the last trading day, sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, internet, and cultural media saw the highest gains, while sectors like pharmaceutical commerce, batteries, oil, and semiconductors experienced the largest declines [3]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector continued to rise, with stocks like Tailong Co. achieving five consecutive daily limits, and companies such as Reco Defense and Hongying Intelligent reaching three consecutive daily limits. Other notable stocks included Changjiang Communication, Beidou Star, Urban Development, and Fenghuo Communication, all hitting their daily limits [5][6]. - A meeting held by the Hainan Provincial Aerospace Leadership Group discussed the 2026 launch plans for the Hainan commercial aerospace launch site, emphasizing the importance of the project's successful construction and operation for supporting the nation's aerospace ambitions. The meeting outlined key tasks, including seizing strategic opportunities and enhancing industry status [9]. - Jiangxi Lianchuang Superconducting Technology Co., Ltd. successfully delivered a project related to a "high-power low-temperature refrigeration system and model superconducting magnet," marking a significant achievement in the commercial aerospace electromagnetic launch field [10]. New Stock Listings - The new stock Hengtongguang listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange saw an unprecedented opening surge of 1000%, reaching a maximum intraday increase of 1087.08%, and closing with a remarkable gain of 878.16% at 309.00. The company focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of passive optical devices in the optical communication field [11][12]. Investment Sentiment - Investors reflected on their experiences in 2025, with some expressing regret for missing out on the hard technology sector's gains while remaining committed to value investing principles. The sentiment highlighted the importance of patience and long-term holding of quality assets like Kweichow Moutai, despite market volatility [16][18]. - The discussion also included strategies for 2026, with plans to continue holding quality stocks and selectively increasing positions in companies with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [18].

做配置的小雪 . 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ 最近，收到一位朋友留言，他认为，我们应该追求集中投资，而不是分散投资。 集中还是分散，只是两种投资流派，没有对错之分，选择适合自己的才是最好的。 不过，根据我们的经验来看，集中投资是「极少数天赋怪」的游戏，对于大多数投资者而言，分 散投资更容易赚到钱。 01 以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 分散投资的「成功概率」远高于集中投资 过去，集中投资创造了很多财富神话，并被散户们热烈追捧，但事实是，正是因为集中投资成功 的概率极低，所以才叫做"神话"。 即使在成熟的美股市场，提到集中投资的成功典范，我们只能想到巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦。 然而靠分散投资取胜，并且规模不断壮大的机构则非常多，比如贝莱德、先锋领航、道富环球、 桥水、富达等等。 尽管身处财富管理行业最发达的美国，有最顶级的投研团队和技术能力，但是靠分散投资成功的 机构，也比集中投资的更多。 02 集中投资的「难度」远高于分散投资 靠集中投资赚钱的前提是，找到并且看懂好公司，但这非常难。 股票的估值不止受公司影响，还受宏观环境、产业行业、以及市场情绪影响，想要看懂这些更不 容易 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the three main scenarios of fund losses and provides guidance on whether to hold or sell under different circumstances, emphasizing the importance of understanding the root causes of losses and the long-term logic of industries [7][10][28]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The first scenario of fund losses occurs when the entire market is declining, which is referred to as systematic risk. This type of risk is unpredictable and unavoidable, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis when the market dropped by 60% [10][12][13]. - The market experiences cyclical changes, transitioning from prosperity to recession and back to prosperity, indicating that economic recovery and market confidence will eventually return [15][16]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Issues - The second scenario involves specific industries or themes experiencing downturns. For instance, the photovoltaic industry faced a downturn from 2021 to 2023 due to rapid capacity expansion, but demand remains, suggesting that holding onto investments may be wise if the long-term logic of the industry hasn't changed [18][22][25]. - Investors should assess whether the fundamental logic of the industry has shifted before deciding to sell [27]. Group 3: Fund Management Problems - The third scenario, which requires the most caution, is when the fund manager's management leads to losses. Key indicators include: 1. Long-term performance significantly underperforming peers, necessitating a review over a complete market cycle [30][31]. 2. A shift in investment style, where a fund manager deviates from their stated strategy, indicating a potential gamble rather than a sound investment approach [33]. 3. Departure of a key fund manager, which can lead to a decline in performance if the fund's success was heavily reliant on that individual [36]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - The article suggests that while temporary losses are normal, understanding their causes is crucial for effective management. It highlights the human tendency to react emotionally when losses exceed 20% [39]. - To mitigate risks during market downturns, diversifying across different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities can help reduce overall risk, as these assets often have low correlation [44][50]. - Although diversification may dilute potential gains during strong bull markets, it is presented as a suitable investment strategy for ordinary investors seeking to minimize volatility [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies in 2023, highlighting the significant differences in returns among different sub-strategies and the impact of market conditions on these performances [10][18]. Strategy Environment - The overall volatility in the commodity market in 2023 was relatively low compared to the previous two years, with specific events causing temporary spikes in volatility [10][12]. - The market experienced a mix of trends, with a clear upward trend in commodities following the "anti-involution" sentiment in July, but subsequently entering a phase of oscillation and correction [13][16]. Performance Analysis Top Performers - The best-performing strategy was the composite CTA strategy, which integrates multiple sub-strategies to adapt to varying market conditions, achieving strong absolute returns [20]. - Long-term trend-following strategies also performed well, effectively filtering out short-term noise and capturing significant trends in precious metals and industrial commodities [21][22]. Underperformers - Short to medium-term trend strategies struggled due to their reliance on weekly signals, which often led to losses as market reversals occurred shortly after trend identification [24]. - Stock index CTA strategies performed poorly overall, primarily due to low volatility and insufficient trend continuity throughout the year [25]. - Subjective trend CTA strategies showed mixed results, heavily dependent on the fund managers' ability to accurately interpret market trends [26]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the value of CTA strategies lies not only in crisis alpha but also in the diverse trading methods that provide high Sharpe ratios [27]. - For a better holding experience, it is recommended to choose composite CTAs, while those optimistic about commodity market opportunities in the coming year may consider private commodity index enhancements [28].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed nearly flat with a ten-day consecutive rise, ending at 3965.12 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% to 3242.90 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 21,426 billion, a slight increase of 3.3 billion from the previous day [2]. Precious Metals Market - Precious metals experienced a significant decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 4.45% to $4,350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures falling by 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce. Spot silver decreased by 8.89%, while spot gold fell by 4.42%. Palladium and platinum saw declines of over 15% and 14%, respectively [4]. - The increase in trading margins for gold, silver, palladium, and lithium futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was a direct trigger for the market sell-off, as it raised speculative trading costs and forced many leveraged long positions to liquidate [5]. AI Sector Developments - The AI application sector was notably active, with stocks like Cooltech Intelligent hitting a 20% limit up, and BlueFocus rising over 7% [7]. - Meta's acquisition of the AI application developer Manus for several billion dollars marks its third-largest acquisition, following WhatsApp and Scale AI. The deal was completed in a very short timeframe, indicating strong interest in AI technologies [11]. - The AI company Zhiyu officially launched its IPO, aiming to raise 4.3 billion Hong Kong dollars, with an expected market capitalization exceeding 51.1 billion Hong Kong dollars upon listing [12][13]. Film and Entertainment Sector - The film sector showed resilience, with stocks like Baiana Qiancheng and Hubei Broadcasting both hitting a 20% limit up. The total box office for the 2025 New Year’s film season surpassed 5 billion yuan, setting a new record for the same period over the past eight years [16][18]. - The success of films like "Zootopia 2," which is expected to surpass 4 billion yuan in box office revenue, highlights the competitive landscape of the film industry, where top films often dominate the market [18]. - The strong performance of the New Year’s film season and the anticipation of quality films for the upcoming Spring Festival suggest a positive outlook for the film and cinema sector [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the difference between assets and liabilities, highlighting that many high-income individuals fail to accumulate wealth due to poor investment choices and excessive consumerism [4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Understanding - The article advocates for a clear definition of assets and liabilities, stating that assets are things that put money into one's pocket, while liabilities take money out [5]. - It stresses that many people mistakenly consider liabilities as assets, leading to financial instability [6][7]. - The article references the views of successful investors like Buffett and Munger, who criticize the investment in gold due to its lack of cash flow generation [9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The concept of "face tax" is introduced, where unnecessary spending to maintain appearances is criticized as a significant financial drain [3][10]. - The article discusses the "luxury car paradox," where high-cost items depreciate quickly and become liabilities rather than assets [10]. - It encourages individuals to redirect funds from superficial consumption into investments that generate real value, such as index funds or rental properties [10]. Group 3: Wealth Accumulation Strategies - The article outlines three key strategies for high-income earners to avoid pitfalls and build wealth: focusing on cash flow direction, avoiding face consumption, and establishing a passive income system [8][11]. - It suggests starting with a small percentage of income to invest in true assets and gradually building a passive income stream [12]. - The ultimate goal is to achieve financial freedom, defined as having the ability to choose how to spend time without financial constraints [12].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.49% and 0.66% respectively, with a total trading volume of 2.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 20.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Over 3,300 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad market weakness despite some sector performances [2] Key Sectors Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector continued to show strong performance, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Shenjian Co. which achieved an eight-day consecutive limit-up [10] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced new guidelines to support commercial rocket companies in listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with several companies already initiating IPO processes [13] Precious Metals - Significant volatility was observed in precious metals, particularly silver, which saw a price fluctuation of approximately 9% in a single day, with a peak price of over 83 USD per ounce [5] - Silver prices have surged over 185% year-to-date, with expectations for a record annual performance since 1979, driven by strong demand and supply imbalances [7] - Retail investor sentiment remains bullish, with 57% expecting silver prices to exceed 100 USD per ounce by 2026, contrasting with only 27% of institutional analysts sharing this view [7] Digital Currency - The digital currency sector saw a rise in stock prices, with companies like Lakala increasing by over 10% following the announcement of a new action plan by the People's Bank of China to enhance the digital yuan management and infrastructure [14][18] - As of November 2025, the digital yuan has processed 34.8 billion transactions totaling 16.7 trillion yuan, with significant cross-border payment activity [18] - The action plan aims to leverage the advantages of the digital yuan in various financial applications, including payment settlements and financing [19]

Core Viewpoint - Many investors learn from successful investment experiences but still incur losses in practice, indicating a need to modify underlying investment logic [3] Group 1: Learning and Mindset - Investors should dedicate significant time to learning about investment, aiming to read over 100 books on value investing and prioritize financial freedom [3] - Understanding oneself and recognizing personal weaknesses is crucial, as these weaknesses can be magnified in the stock market [3] - Investors must break free from herd mentality and think independently, as the majority is often wrong in the stock market [4] Group 2: Analytical Thinking - Investors should focus on correlation rather than causation, as establishing cause-and-effect relationships in the stock market is challenging [5] - Utilizing statistical principles is essential, as relying on intuition can lead to poor decision-making; long-term investments are often more profitable than short-term ones [6] Group 3: Strategic and Emotional Considerations - Strategic thinking is vital for long-term investment success, considering broader economic and historical contexts [7] - A stable mindset is more important than high skill levels; emotional fluctuations can negatively impact investment outcomes [8] Group 4: Continuous Improvement and Support - Investors should remain humble and open to learning, acknowledging their imperfections and seeking to improve [9] - Gaining family support for investment activities is important, as societal biases against investors can create additional challenges [10] Group 5: Time Management and Focus - Investors should prioritize important tasks and relationships, avoiding distractions from unimportant matters [10] - Recognizing cyclical patterns in the market is crucial, as all investments are subject to cycles [11][12] Group 6: Passion and Curiosity - Maintaining passion for investment and curiosity for knowledge is essential for continuous growth and success in the field [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing a multi-layered and multi-pillar pension financial system in response to China's aging population, highlighting the role of Postal Savings Bank in enhancing pension wealth management and financial services [1][11]. Group 1: Pension Financial Services - Postal Savings Bank has issued over 130 million financial social security cards and opened over 10 million personal pension accounts, actively supporting the national multi-layered pension insurance system [3]. - The bank has enhanced its "financial + social security" one-stop service capabilities, allowing for features such as card replacement and electronic social security card issuance [3]. - The bank offers a comprehensive lifecycle management service for personal pension accounts, covering all channels and products, including deposits, funds, insurance, and wealth management [4]. Group 2: Elderly Customer Services - Postal Savings Bank has improved its elderly-friendly financial services, including the development of user-friendly mobile banking features and the establishment of over 3,000 health management stations for elderly clients [7]. - The bank has launched various community initiatives, such as the "Postal Love Silver Home" project, to provide a supportive environment for the elderly [7]. - The bank's "U Enjoy Future" pension financial brand was officially launched, aiming to enhance the quality of life for elderly customers through tailored financial solutions [10][11]. Group 3: Pension Industry Financing - Postal Savings Bank has created a "523" service system focusing on five core areas and implementing a dual-drive strategy to provide customized financial solutions for the pension industry [9]. - The bank has successfully led a 4.972 billion yuan health and wellness financing project in Wenzhou, showcasing its innovative financial service model [9]. - The bank is continuously improving its support systems, including optimizing credit policies and developing specialized products for pension fund management [10].

Group 1 - The market continues to recover, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3963 points [3] - Recent afternoon surges indicate that buying funds are waiting for short sellers to drive prices down before accumulating shares [4] - The recent appreciation of the RMB beyond 7 signifies a stronger willingness to exchange currency compared to previous years, which may support the economy [7] Group 2 - The RMB's future direction is anticipated to stabilize around 6.9, as rapid appreciation could negatively impact exports and technological innovation [8][10] - The strong willingness to exchange currency this year is mitigated by many companies having hedged their positions, limiting potential losses [10][12] - The monthly customer option buying volume in the banking sector has reached 30 billion USD, doubling from last year [11] Group 3 - Signals to boost domestic demand are becoming more pronounced, with both spot and forward exchange rates showing significant appreciation [15][16] - The current low volatility environment during the RMB's appreciation suggests that large reversals are unlikely, similar to slow bull markets in equities [25][28] - The revaluation period for Chinese assets is expected to open officially [30] Group 4 - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing is seen as beneficial for the real estate sector, but not necessarily for housing prices [31] - The true intention behind the government's focus on "investing in people" can be understood by observing rental prices, which are leading indicators for housing stability [35][36] - The continuous decline in the REITs index indicates significant rental pressure [37] Group 5 - The A500 ETF has seen increased trading volume, with the leading A500 ETF's transaction volume reaching 53.3 billion [40] - The current market volatility has decreased, suggesting that many short positions in derivatives may convert to long positions in the future [40] - The investment landscape is shifting towards sectors like military and robotics, with insurance stocks reaching new highs and showing a 33% increase this year [40]