↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 市场回顾 2025年投资正式收官，小雪实盘也陪伴各位投资者经历这一年资本市场的风云变幻。年末之际，雪球投研将与各位投资者聊聊小雪实盘这一年的成 绩单。 2024年9月24日，央行、金融监管总局和证监会三部门同步推出一揽子增量金融政策，为资本市场注入强心剂。当前距离"924政策组合拳"的出台 已过去一年有余，而在宏观逆周期调节政策支持、资本市场制度完善与中长期资金入市的持续推动下，A股整体步入"慢牛"通道。截至2025年12月 31日，上证指数全年累计上涨18.41%，创业板指、科创50分别上涨49.57%、35.92%。其中，截至10月29日收盘，上证指数时隔近10年再度站 上4000点。 数据来源：央行、国务院客户端等，雪球投研整理，数据截至2025年12月31日。 2025年3月，政府工作报告将"综合整治内卷式竞争"列为年度重要任务；7月召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议上，强调"要依法依规治理企业低价 无序竞争"；随之而来的是光伏、汽车和动力电池等多个领域积极推进"反内卷"相关安排。 在此背景之下，2025年中国物价指数整体呈现出"CPI温和回升，PPI降幅收窄"的态势 ...

Core Concept - The article discusses the "Permanent Portfolio" investment strategy proposed by Harry Browne, which aims to generate returns regardless of economic conditions by diversifying investments across four asset types: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash [1][3]. Economic Environments - Browne identifies four economic environments: inflation, deflation, economic growth, and economic recession, each influencing different asset classes [3][5]. - In economic growth, corporate profits rise, leading to increased stock prices [5]. - Inflation results in high demand, causing commodity prices to rise due to supply shortages [6][7]. - Deflation indicates weak demand, prompting governments to lower interest rates, which boosts bond prices [9][10]. - During economic recessions, holding cash provides a safety net and allows for opportunistic investments [11]. Investment Strategy - The strategy involves dividing capital equally into four parts (25% each) and investing in the identified asset classes, ensuring that at least one asset is likely to perform well regardless of economic conditions [12][13]. - The portfolio requires periodic rebalancing to maintain the 25% allocation, adjusting for any significant price changes in the assets [15][19]. Performance and Adaptation - Over 50 years, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 8%-9%, with only four years of slight losses, demonstrating resilience even during market downturns [23][24]. - The concept has been widely adopted by financial institutions in developed countries, including sovereign wealth funds and endowment funds [31]. Comparison with New Strategies - The article introduces a new investment tool called "Three-Part Method," which modifies the Permanent Portfolio approach by replacing cash with short-term bonds for better efficiency [32][36]. - The Three-Part Method diversifies investments across various global markets, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and others, to capture broader economic growth [39]. - It allows for personalized asset allocation based on individual risk tolerance, contrasting with the fixed allocation of the Permanent Portfolio [41]. Investment Execution - The Three-Part Method encourages regular investment through dollar-cost averaging, which helps mitigate the risks of market volatility and promotes disciplined investing [44]. - It emphasizes three types of diversification: asset diversification (stocks, bonds, commodities), market diversification (various global stock markets), and time diversification (through regular investments and rebalancing) [48].

Market Overview - The ChiNext index rebounded after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.56% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.91 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.04 trillion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 3,100 stocks declining [3] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed strength in the afternoon, with companies like Xidian Co. hitting a 20% limit up, reaching a historical high [3][12] - The tourism and hotel sector was active, with Shaanxi Tourism also hitting the limit up [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector rose, with Sichuan Gold and Luoping Zinc Electric hitting the limit up [3] Declining Sectors - Popular sectors such as AI applications and commercial aerospace saw significant declines, with many high-profile stocks hitting the limit down, including Huaren Health and Zhejiang Wenhu [4][5] - The commercial aerospace concept sector collectively adjusted, with stocks like China Satellite and Aerospace Electronic hitting the limit down [6] Company Announcements - Haige Communication announced an expected net profit loss for 2025, leading to a limit down on its stock [9] - Yanshan Technology, which had previously seen consecutive gains, also hit the limit down [9] Semiconductor Industry Insights - The International Semiconductor Industry Association projected that global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales will reach a record $133 billion in 2025, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, driven by AI-related investments [16] - The report indicates that mainland China will remain the largest market for semiconductor equipment in 2026, with an expected investment of approximately $39.25 billion [16] Smart Driving Sector Activity - The smart driving concept saw active trading, with companies like Weidi Co. hitting the limit up and others like Hengshuai Co. and Suoling Co. also showing significant gains [13][19] - A new action plan for high-level autonomous driving in Shanghai aims for large-scale implementation by 2027, indicating a growing focus on the smart driving industry [19] Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley reported that the adjustment of financing margin ratios aims to maintain a "slow bull" market, with the leverage cap reduced from 1.25 times to 1 time [21] - The report suggests that the overall market leverage level is low, with financing balances accounting for about 2.3% of the total A-share market value, lower than the peak of 3.8% in 2015 [21] - Analysts believe that the long-term slow bull trend in A-shares remains intact, driven by structural recovery in earnings and ample liquidity [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of quantitative macro strategies in the investment landscape, emphasizing their growth and effectiveness in asset allocation and risk management [9][10]. Group 1: Growth of Quantitative Macro Strategies - Over the past seven years, the global management scale of quantitative macro strategies has experienced explosive growth, surpassing 60% of the global macro strategy proportion in 2023, with this percentage continuing to rise [9]. - Quantitative macro strategies shift investment decision-making from narrative-driven approaches to rule-based execution through quantitative models, integrating both quantitative trading and macroeconomic logic [10]. Group 2: Addressing Criticisms of Quantitative Macro Strategies - Criticism regarding the rationality of macro strategies is addressed, highlighting that while traditional macro strategies rely on low-frequency economic data, quantitative macro can utilize a broader range of high-frequency data through advancements in machine learning and AI [12][13]. - The article counters the skepticism about the performance of quantitative macro strategies, asserting that many strategies have demonstrated significant excess returns, particularly in volatile market conditions, where they can quickly respond to market signals [16][18]. Group 3: Strategy Implementation - An example of a quantitative macro strategy is provided, which divides its approach into Beta and Alpha components, with the Beta portion using a risk parity model to allocate equal volatility weights to equity indices, government bonds, and commodity futures [15]. - The Alpha component employs machine learning models to identify short-term signals for timing and trading, enhancing returns without increasing overall portfolio risk [15][18]. Group 4: Risk Management and Leverage - Quantitative macro strategies are noted for their cautious approach to leverage, utilizing a more diversified trading portfolio and a programmatic risk control mechanism to monitor leverage usage in real-time [20]. - The article emphasizes that the flexibility in using leverage is a significant advantage of macro strategies, particularly when employing CTA methods to amplify returns during certain market conditions [18][20].

Group 1 - The core investment strategies can be summarized into three main methods: earning through foresight, exploiting market panic, and capitalizing on cycles [3][4]. - Earning through foresight involves identifying companies with strong future potential early on, allowing for investment before their value is realized [3]. - Exploiting market panic refers to buying undervalued stocks during market downturns, particularly blue-chip stocks and fundamentally sound turnaround companies, which can yield significant returns when the market recovers [4]. Group 2 - The cycle-based strategy focuses on the cyclical nature of commodities, where buying during industry downturns and selling during peaks can lead to consistent profits [4]. - The three strategies require different attributes: foresight relies on cognitive and logical reasoning, panic exploitation depends on conviction and independence, while cycle investing demands patience and perseverance [5]. - The principles of investment are closely aligned with broader life principles, suggesting that the approach to investing mirrors the approach to personal conduct [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of caution in a bullish market, using the historical example of Sir Isaac Newton's financial losses during the South Sea Bubble to illustrate the risks of emotional trading and market speculation [3][4][18]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1720, the South Sea Company received a charter from the British government to trade with South America, leading to widespread speculation and a dramatic increase in stock prices from £128 to over £1000 within six months, an increase of nearly 8 times [8][10]. - Newton initially profited by investing £7000 and selling at a 100% return, but later succumbed to the fear of missing out and reinvested £20,000, which was equivalent to ten years of his salary [10][11]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Human Emotion - The article highlights that even a genius like Newton could not predict market behavior, emphasizing that the underlying emotions of greed and fear have remained constant throughout history [13][15]. - The fear of missing out can lead investors to make irrational decisions, as seen in Newton's case when he re-entered the market at its peak, resulting in significant losses when the bubble burst [11][18]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article advises investors to control their risk by managing their positions and avoiding going "all in" during market euphoria, suggesting that maintaining some cash reserves is crucial for stability and future opportunities [19]. - It emphasizes the importance of taking profits and reassessing one's portfolio during high market sentiment, rather than being swept up in the excitement [19].

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 睿知睿见 . 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：睿知睿见 来源：雪球 2026年开年 ， 我相信很多人感到了世界有些许不同 ！ 但又说不出是哪里不同 。 两件最典型的事件让2026年显得十分的特别 ， 一个是美国绑架了委内瑞拉总统 ， 另一件是中国日本启动了釜底抽薪的反制 。 中美两国都在清扫自家门户和周边 。 全球秩序重塑将在未来几年展开 ！ 秩序的改变 ， 也会使得资产的价格波动变得非常异常 ， 并且很难用传统经济学来解释 。 这里面就有机会 ， 也暗藏巨大风险 。 01 但现在这种思考框架可能就失效了 。 传统经济学失效 经济学理论是假设所有人都是理性人 。 后来有不少学者反驳 ， 人不可能是绝对理性的 。 然而 ， 当两个超级大国开始斗狠时 ， 经济学所定义的理性将让位 。 经济学的理性主要是基于对效率的理性考虑 。 比如 ， 以前哪里生产成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends, highlighting the rise of AI applications and the impact of regulatory changes on financing margins in the stock market [2][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.56% and 0.82% respectively. The total market turnover reached 39,661 billion yuan, an increase of 2,673 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - AI application sectors are leading the market, particularly the "GEO" concept and internet e-commerce, while energy metals are undergoing adjustments [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an increase in the minimum financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investors' rights [5][6]. - This adjustment follows a previous reduction in August 2023, which had led to increased financing activity and market liquidity [5]. Group 3: AI Applications - The "GEO" concept, related to generative engine optimization, is gaining traction in the A-share market, with companies like Kai Chun and Yi Wang Yi Chuang seeing significant stock price increases of 20% [9]. - The GEO market is projected to reach a scale of 100 billion USD by 2026, driven by the shift in search engine traffic towards AI chatbots and virtual agents [11]. - AI e-commerce is evolving, with Google partnering with major retailers to enhance its AI model's shopping capabilities, indicating a significant shift in retail interactions [11]. Group 4: Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector saw notable gains, with stocks like Tongyuan Petroleum and Keli Co. rising by 12.53% and 14.56% respectively [15]. - As of January 13, WTI crude oil futures settled at 60.93 USD per barrel, reflecting a 2.7% increase, while Brent crude oil futures settled at 65.47 USD per barrel, up by 2.5% [17]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to influence oil prices, with potential price increases of 10 to 20 USD per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the pricing logic of non-ferrous metals, emphasizing the rise of strategic resource populism as a key factor influencing market pricing, particularly after the implementation of equal tariffs in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Non-Ferrous Metals Market Analysis - The traditional pricing framework for non-ferrous metals has been driven by global macro liquidity, economic expectations, and the US dollar index, but recent years have shown a divergence between metal prices and global economic indicators [4][6]. - The current economic environment is characterized by low global PMI levels, yet non-ferrous metal prices have outperformed expectations, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by monetary attributes and strategic reserve demands [4][7]. Trading Framework and Historical Performance - The core trading framework focuses on the economic cycle, particularly inventory cycles, with liquidity as an important extension. However, this framework has faced challenges in the non-ferrous metals sector due to unique supply and demand dynamics [6][7]. - Historical trading experiences highlight the importance of adhering to a core framework while recognizing the evolving market conditions, leading to successful investments in precious metals and strategic small metals [9][10]. Sector-Specific Insights - Precious Metals (Gold, Silver): The article notes a strong performance in gold and silver due to anticipated changes in US monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, with significant gains observed over the past three years [9][10]. - Strategic Small Metals (Antimony, Tungsten, Rare Earths): The author emphasizes early positioning in strategic small metals, benefiting from export controls and geopolitical shifts, resulting in substantial price increases [11][12]. - Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum): Despite a generally positive long-term outlook, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of demand due to ongoing issues in the real estate sector and uncertainties in US economic growth [13][14]. 2026 Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The market for non-ferrous metals is expected to remain active, but the author advocates for a cautious approach, focusing on identifying clear entry points rather than participating in the current market excitement [16][17]. - Industrial metals are viewed with caution due to unresolved concerns about the real estate market and the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditures, with a recommendation to monitor these sectors closely [17][18]. - For strategic small metals, the long-term outlook remains positive, but current high prices necessitate waiting for favorable entry points [20][21]. - Precious metals continue to show long-term benefits, but short-term caution is advised due to market volatility and the need for clear buying signals [21][22]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while the non-ferrous metals market is currently vibrant, the focus should remain on waiting for definitive buying opportunities rather than engaging in all market trends, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic decision-making in investment [22][24].

做配置的小雪 . 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ 以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 最近，刷到知名经济学家付鹏的一条短视频，视频内容的核心主旨是： 年轻人本金少，炒股就要赌一把！ 付鹏的理由如下： 1、钱少，就应该追求高 收益率 。 因为"钱少和资产过亿、过千万的这种级别，投资的逻辑思维是不一样的，本金500万，赚5%就很开心了，本金只有50万，赚10倍才有500万"。 2、年轻人更适合在股市里赌博。 因为"你是年轻人，没有孩子也没有负担，赌一把可能从1到10，再赌一把可能从10到100"。 一、"钱少，就应该追逐高 收益率 "？ 错！资本市场人人平等，不会因为钱多钱少就区别对待。 3、让年轻人复利，就是忽悠年轻人。 因为"就算玩复利，你知道复利增长20倍，需要多长时间吗？所以我们不应该在这忽悠年轻人，让年轻人稳定投资、复利增长，是在给他们洗脑"。 听起来字字珠玑，非常为我们年轻人着想，但事实上，付鹏画的饼很香，但很毒！ 投资是相当逆人性的，任何顺应人性、让我们爽到的观点，都要保持警惕。 难道本金500万的有钱人，就不想要高收益率吗？ 当然想 ...