以下文章来源于郭施亮 ，作者郭施亮 郭施亮 . 财经评论员、专栏作家，2013年度搜狐最佳行业自媒体人。香港大公财经特约评论员、每经智库专栏作家，并多次受邀广东省人民政府发展研究中心等权 威机构撰写多篇学术文章。其作品刊登于香港文汇报、新华社《瞭望》、人民日报海外版等数十家权威报刊。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 郭施亮 在美元大幅走弱的影响下 ， 促使人民币汇率被动升值 ， 同时也促使大部分与美元指数呈现出负相关的资产出现了可观的涨幅 。 在投资市场中 ， 常有一句话是这样说的 ， " 一鲸落 ， 万物生 " ， 美元指数涨跌对大部分资产价格带来较大的影响 。 这一轮美元贬值潮 ， 不 仅带动了金价的持续上涨 ， 而且还带动了股市等资产的持续回暖 。 美元指数持续下跌 ， 促使人民币汇率的被动升值 。 不过 ， 影响人民币汇率走向的因素 ， 远不止美元指数这一项指标 。 例如 ， 国内经济基本 面的持续改善 、 市场投资情绪升温以及外资的积极流入等 ， 都会对人民币汇率起到积极的提振影响 。 在人民币汇率重 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 沪指8连阳，截至收盘，沪指涨0.1%，深成指涨0.54%，创业板指0.14%。沪深两市成交额2.16万亿，较上一个交易日放量2357亿。 商业航天概念再度爆发，神剑股份7连板，中国卫星3连板，通宇通讯、隆基机械、上海港湾等十余股涨停。 有色大涨，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业均创历史新高。海南自贸概念反复活跃，海南发展6天5板。 造纸、白酒、算力硬件等板块跌幅居前，其中算力硬件概念表现较弱，长光华芯跌超11%。 01 8900亿紫金矿业 历史新高 今天盘中，沪铜期货主力合约、沪金期货主力合约、沪银期货主力合约、铂期货主力合约盘中集体创历史新高，碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中一度突破 13万元/吨关口。 有色金属板块集体走强，两大龙头股紫金矿业、洛阳钼业股价大涨，均创历史新高。 其中紫金矿业大涨4.68%，单日成交额95亿元，最新市值8915亿元。 | 33.53 +1.50 +4.68% CN 融 通 L1 | 64.82万人加自选 ( = = == > | | --- | --- | | 高 33.77 开 32.60 量 286.20万手 总市值 8915.54亿 | | | 低 32. ...

Core Viewpoint - Value investing remains a timeless topic in the Chinese capital market, with few investors successfully implementing its core principles over the long term [2][3]. Group 1: Value Investment Characteristics - Excellent value fund managers possess traits such as independence, objectivity, long-term investment focus, contrarian decision-making, perseverance, and prudence [3]. - The CSI 800 Value Index has shown superior performance compared to the CSI 800 Growth Index over the past decade, with better annualized returns and lower maximum drawdowns [3]. Group 2: Long-term Value Investment in Domestic Fund Companies - China Europe Fund is one of the few companies with a strong tradition of long-term value investing, boasting a team of seven value fund managers with an average experience of over 13 years [6]. - The value team at China Europe Fund has generated over 10 billion in profits this year, indicating the effectiveness of a diversified value team built on an "industrialized" research system [6]. Group 3: Individual Fund Manager Insights - Blue Xiaokang, head of the value team at China Europe Fund, manages over 25 billion and has consistently outperformed benchmarks since 2019 [8]. - Blue Xiaokang emphasizes insights, valuation, systematic thinking, rationality, and altruism in his investment philosophy, focusing on macroeconomic trends [8][9]. - He believes that the valuation of Chinese financial stocks is underestimated and that the bad debt ratio in the domestic banking sector will not be as pessimistic as previously thought [9]. Group 4: Team Dynamics and Decision-Making - The decision-making process within the value team at China Europe Fund is characterized by equality and open communication, with the team leader fostering a collaborative environment [14][16]. - Each fund manager in the team has unique characteristics and investment styles, contributing to a diverse and effective investment approach [15][21]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The long-term thinking of the management and shareholders at China Europe Fund supports the implementation of a long-term strategy, enhancing governance advantages [26]. - The company is committed to continuous organizational innovation and has introduced an "industrialized" research system to support its long-term investment philosophy [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on a decade of investment experiences, emphasizing the importance of adapting investment strategies over time and setting realistic long-term goals for returns [5][19][27]. Group 1: Investment Performance - The initial investment amount grew from approximately 1 million to around 10 million, with a cumulative return of 219.7% and a compound annual growth rate of about 13.78% over ten years [8]. - The author acknowledges that while the returns may not seem impressive to short-term traders, the steady growth reflects a disciplined approach to investing through market cycles [10][11]. - The investment strategy evolved from a long-term buy-and-hold approach to a more active strategy of high selling and low buying, with a focus on increasing the frequency of trades [24][25]. Group 2: Market Insights - The author highlights the importance of setting a long-term investment goal, suggesting that a reasonable target could be to achieve returns that outpace the annual GDP growth rate, which is currently around 5% [29][31]. - The article discusses the challenges of achieving a long-term annualized return of over 15%, noting that while some years may yield high returns, others may result in losses, making consistent performance difficult [34][38]. - The author mentions that despite facing market downturns, the overall strategy of continuous investment during low points has led to significant total returns [42][46]. Group 3: Risk Management and Tools - The author created a "market temperature gauge" to assess risk boundaries, emphasizing that this tool is not for making buy or sell decisions but for evaluating risk levels [50]. - Continuous learning and data analysis are highlighted as essential practices for navigating the investment landscape, with a focus on understanding market dynamics and company performance [51][52]. - The article concludes with a reminder that true investment success lies in the ability to endure market lows and adapt strategies accordingly [53][56].

以下文章来源于懒汉养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒汉养基 . 懒人养基小号【懒汉养基】。主号【懒人养基】专注于基金投资，小号【懒汉养基】则记录并小范围分享自己个人成长、投资理财、旅行旅居、读书休 闲、健身养生等方面的一些思考、感悟和经历。感兴趣的朋友欢迎关注。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 懒人养基 来源：雪球 投资市场从来不缺热闹 ， 每天都有涨跌交替的狂欢与落寞 ， 也从不缺怀揣期待的入局者 。 但多数人未曾想过 ， 投资路上最可怕的不是亏损本身 ， 而是一种 " 无规划 、 无判断 、 无预案 " 的三无状态 —— 把未来交给运气 ， 把许愿当 成决策 ， 直到身陷绝境才慌不择路地四处求救 。 扎心的是 ， 这几乎是所有投资入门者的必由之路 ， 也是筛选出成熟投资者的第一道门槛 。 01 把许愿当决策 很多人踏入市场的第一天 ， 就带着一个强烈的 " 愿望 " ： 想赚钱 ， 想赚快钱 ， 想赚大钱 。 但这个愿望永远停留在 " 想 " 的层面 ， 从未变成 可执行的计划 。 他们既不看经济基本面 ， 也不分析 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but closed higher, recording a seven-day rise, with a gain of 0.47% at the close [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index also rebounded, with increases of 0.33% and 0.3% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Over 3,700 stocks in the market rose, with 93 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - The commercial aerospace sector was notably active, with over 20 constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Shenjian Co. with six consecutive limit-ups [2][13] - The robotics sector saw a rapid increase, with multiple stocks such as Shikang Co. and Xiangshan Co. hitting the daily limit [2][17] - The chip industry chain strengthened, with stocks like Shenghui Integrated and Guofeng New Materials reaching the daily limit [2] - The paper sector experienced significant gains, with stocks like Bohui Paper and Yibin Paper also hitting the daily limit [2] Precious Metals and Investment Funds - Precious metals, Hainan, and energy metals sectors were among the biggest decliners, with Hainan Free Trade Zone stocks collectively dropping, including Hainan Ruize which fell nearly 7% [3] - The previously popular silver fund, Guotou Silver LOF, hit the daily limit down, with a premium still at 45% despite the drop [4][5] - On December 25, Guotou Silver LOF resumed trading but quickly hit the limit down, with a trading volume of 809 million yuan and a high sell order of 4.86 million hands [5][9] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase of rapid development, with over 600 companies in the industry and 25 launch sites [16] - The recent launch of the Long March 12 rocket and the completion of nearly 90 launches this year have set a historical record, with a significant increase in commercial launches [16] - Analysts suggest that the commercial aerospace theme is gaining momentum due to improved top-level design and new policy support, enhancing market confidence in long-term development [16] Robotics Sector - The humanoid robotics sector saw a surge, with Fenglong Co. hitting the daily limit upon resuming trading, supported by a significant order transfer agreement with UBTECH [17][19] - UBTECH, a leading company in the robotics field, has focused on humanoid robot applications and has secured nearly 1.4 billion yuan in orders this year [22]

以下文章来源于画不多说 ，作者懂私募的灵魂画手 画不多说 . 话不多说，画多说。用最通俗易懂的方式，讲述私募的故事。 提到"分红"，大多数投资者脑海中浮现的第一个画面， 是 我们买了 一 只 红利股， 然后像地主收租一样，坐等每年获得稳定的现金回 报。 能持续稳定分红的公司，通常经营稳健、现金流充沛，是公司盈利能力的体现。 站在投资人角度，分红后股价会进行"除息"，股价下降，所以其实总资产并没有发生变化。 这么看， 分红 ，并没有带来额外的收益 ，而是一个【从左口袋到右口袋】的资金转移过程。 但这笔钱落袋为安，是实打实的真金白银到手。 所以有很多人喜欢买高分红的公司，为的是稳定的现金流和稳健的盈利增长。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 私募基金分红，也是如此吗？ 这篇我们来详细了解下， 什么是 基金 的 分红 、分红有哪些形式、以及分红对咱买了的人有什么好处呢。 首先，到底什么是【基金分红】？ 基金能够分红， 意味着基金本身是盈利的——有可以进行分配的收益。 换句话说，基金亏损状态，是不会分红的哦。 分红时，我们买的人会有两种选择：现金分红、红利再投。 现金分红 ： 收益分配之后，分红资金到手了，但基金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and future trends of quantitative investment strategies in 2025, highlighting the coexistence of differentiation and opportunities within the public quantitative fund industry [2][4][5]. Group 1: Differentiation in Quantitative Investment - The public quantitative industry in 2025 is characterized by product differentiation, with a wider variety of quantitative products available compared to previous years, including strategies covering 500, 1000, and 2000 indices [4]. - Alpha differentiation has expanded, with significant variations in excess returns among different models on the same platform, indicating a rare occurrence of divergence within the industry [4]. - There is a notable performance gap between public and private quantitative funds, with public funds being more conservative due to compliance constraints, while private funds have shown better performance in small-cap stocks [4]. Group 2: Opportunities in Quantitative Investment - 2025 is seen as a significant year for quantitative investment, with active market participation and substantial individual stock differentiation creating a favorable environment for excess returns [5]. - The year marks the implementation of high-quality development policies in public funds, promoting "constrained active management" as a mainstream approach, which opens new opportunities for quantitative methods across various investment processes [5]. - Quantitative investment is increasingly recognized as a valuable methodology for predicting returns, managing risks, optimizing portfolios, and executing trades, leading to broader application across the asset management industry [5]. Group 3: Trends and Future Outlook - The future of public quantitative investment is expected to be expansive, with an increasing number of listed companies and improved liquidity, providing ample opportunities for differentiation in quantitative strategies [10]. - The integration of AI into public quantitative investment is anticipated to enhance investment methodologies, emphasizing the need for precision and detail in research and development [10]. - The focus for 2026 will be on strengthening the alpha generation capabilities while ensuring robust risk management to maintain investor confidence during market volatility [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of acknowledging uncertainty in investment decisions and the dangers of overconfidence in market predictions [5][7][20]. Group 1: Market Uncertainty - Investors often seek certainty and rely on theories or historical patterns, but the fundamental nature of financial markets is uncertainty [7]. - No investment strategy is infallible; historical examples show that even well-regarded companies can underperform due to high valuations or changing economic conditions [8]. - Holding a mindset of "I am definitely right" can lead to devastating losses when market conditions shift [9]. Group 2: Lessons from Investment Masters - Even top investors like those at Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and Warren Buffett have made significant mistakes, highlighting that expertise does not guarantee success [12][18]. - LTCM, despite its sophisticated models and high returns, suffered catastrophic losses due to unforeseen events, demonstrating the vulnerability of even the most complex strategies [14]. - Buffett's investment in airline stocks during the pandemic serves as a reminder that even the best can misjudge market conditions [16][18]. Group 3: Overconfidence in Investing - Overconfidence is a survival trait that can lead to poor investment decisions, as individuals often believe they are above average in their abilities [20][22]. - This cognitive bias results in frequent trading, which can diminish returns; studies show that high-frequency traders underperform the market by 6.5 percentage points annually after fees [26]. - Investors tend to seek confirmation of their beliefs, leading to a narrow focus that can exacerbate losses [29][30]. Group 4: Embracing Uncertainty - Adopting the mindset of "I might be wrong" can lead to better investment practices, such as diversification and risk management [31][32]. - Acknowledging potential errors encourages investors to avoid putting all their resources into a single asset and to maintain a balanced portfolio [32]. - Recognizing the possibility of being wrong can also facilitate timely decision-making, such as cutting losses when investment theses no longer hold [36][37]. Group 5: Adjusting Expectations - Accepting the fallibility of one's judgments can lead to more realistic expectations and a healthier investment mindset [38][39]. - Investors should focus on steady growth rather than attempting to time the market perfectly, which can reduce anxiety and improve overall investment experience [41]. - The article concludes that humility and respect for market unpredictability are crucial for long-term success in investing [44].

在科技浪潮奔涌、成长股反复经历 "高光"与"震荡"的2025年，投资者应该如何拨开迷雾、锚定真正的长期价值？ 12月21日，在2025雪球嘉年华上，雪球人气用户零城逆影和鹏华基金董事总经理、权益投资三部总经理闫思倩，围绕《科技与成长股的投资逻辑》 议题，系统梳理了从新能源到人形机器人的演进路径，深度剖析AI热潮下的真实产业进程。 01 产业研究是底层投资逻辑 零城逆影： 您从 2011年就开始研究新能源在 配置人形机器人板块后 的初期 行情压力很大， 您是如何 一直坚持到现在的？ 闫思倩： 我们十五年前就开始研究特斯拉、电动车和新能源。在过去的产业链研究中，研究一辆车就要把整车拆解开。而拆解一辆车，重点要看三 电系统：对电池的研究涉及锂电池的正极负极、隔膜、电解液，一直到锂矿，因此研究范围覆盖有色、化工，甚至需要物理化工知识。 随后的汽车零部件，包括智驾系统、汽车电子等。十五年前，锂电池主要应用于宁德时代的前身 ATL，为苹果提供手机和笔记本电脑的电池，因此 果链和汽车产业链也就都进入到我们的研究范围内。 到了 2019年，互联网科技巨头纷纷入局造车，我本身学计算机的，就开始研究互联网科技巨头和电子架构，在这 ...