Core Viewpoint - The article expresses a strong bullish outlook on silver prices, predicting a rise from the current level of 46 to a range of 40-50, with a potential increase of around 10% [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The expectation of interest rate cuts is a key driver for rising gold and silver prices, influenced by a cooling job market and increasing unemployment rates in the U.S. [5][6]. - The current federal benchmark interest rate is still above the neutral rate, suggesting that a reduction is necessary to stimulate the economy, with anticipated cuts exceeding expectations next year [6]. - Global fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish environment for gold, as major economies face increasing government debt and deficit concerns [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Speculative funds entering the market are significantly impacting gold prices, with a shift from a drag to a boost in price momentum as market sentiment improves [11][12]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices could reach 4,200 USD/oz by mid-next year, driven by continued demand from central banks and speculative investors [13]. Group 3: Historical Context - The relationship between gold prices and changes in the global monetary system is highlighted, with past transitions leading to significant price increases [14]. - The current challenges to the dollar-based monetary system are prompting a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [15]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold, reversing previous trends of reduction, which is expected to support higher gold prices [17][18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with central banks viewing gold as a key asset in their reserves [20][21]. Group 5: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, such as supply chain disruptions and sanctions, are driving demand for precious metals, particularly silver, which has both safe-haven and industrial properties [32][33]. Group 6: Silver Market Specifics - Industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to require over 50,000 tons annually due to increased solar installations [35]. - Supply constraints are evident, with global silver production projected to decline by 1.3% in 2024 due to mine closures and strikes [36]. - Market sentiment is shifting positively, with significant inflows into silver ETFs and increased physical demand, indicating a robust investment environment [37][38].

Group 1 - The article highlights that a significant amount of high-interest fixed deposits made by residents will mature between 2025 and 2026, with a total of 66.54 trillion yuan in fixed deposits added from 2021 to 2024, leading to a peak maturity of 22.28 trillion yuan in 2025 and 9.4 trillion yuan in 2026 [3][9] - In August, there was a notable decrease in bank deposits, with only 110 billion yuan saved compared to a typical 600 billion yuan, indicating a shift of funds from banks to other investments, particularly the stock market, as evidenced by a 7.97% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 24.13% increase in the ChiNext Index [10][11] - The M2-M1 growth rate difference is narrowing, suggesting a transition from "dead money" (fixed deposits) to "live money" (liquid assets), reflecting a recovery in economic activity as businesses and consumers are more willing to invest and spend [12][15] Group 2 - The article suggests that the upcoming maturity of high-interest fixed deposits in 2025 and 2026, combined with a sustained positive performance in the stock market, could enhance liquidity in the stock market as more fixed deposits convert to liquid assets [15]

Group 1: Happiness, Success, and Desire - Happiness comes from satisfaction, while success stems from dissatisfaction, highlighting a core contradiction in life that needs to be understood and managed [5] - There are two paths to happiness: obtaining what one desires or not desiring what one does not have, with the latter providing freedom through reduced desire [5] - The ultimate goal of winning in life is to eventually free oneself from the game, suggesting that one should seek to become weary of the game rather than remain in a perpetual cycle [5] - Pursuing material success first and then seeking spiritual freedom is a more realistic path, as fulfilling material desires is often easier than suppressing them [5] - Desire is a self-imposed contract of unhappiness, where one commits to being unhappy until achieving their desires [5] - Enjoying the journey itself is crucial, as 99% of life is spent in pursuit rather than in the moment of achievement [5] Group 2: Mindset, Pain, and Self - Most of the emotional pain experienced in the past was optional and not necessary, suggesting that one could have approached tasks with less emotional turmoil [6] - Pain should be viewed as a tool for growth rather than a marker of progress, focusing on the outcomes pain brings rather than the pain itself [6] - Self-esteem is built on one's reputation with oneself, and adhering to personal moral standards is the best way to establish it [6] - The worst outcome in life is a lack of self-esteem, as self-dislike makes external challenges insurmountable [6] - Learning is fundamentally about correcting mistakes, and true understanding comes from first principles rather than rote memorization [6] Group 3: Decision-Making and Action - The most valuable resource in life is attention, and careful selection of what to focus on is essential, as what one pays attention to shapes their identity [7] - To escape competition, one should embrace their uniqueness and find what they enjoy that others view as work, then "productize" it [9] - In a world full of choices, the biggest mistake is making commitments too early without sufficient exploration [9] - If faced with indecision, the answer is often "no," as modern society offers numerous opportunities that should be pursued without hesitation [10] - The key to mastering any skill lies in the number of iterations rather than the number of hours spent [10] Group 4: Wealth, Status, and Society - Wealth creation is a positive-sum game that can create value for everyone, while status games are zero-sum and inherently competitive [22][23] - Fame should be an earned byproduct of creating value rather than a goal in itself, as pursuing fame for its own sake is hollow [24] - The decline in birth rates is a complex socio-economic phenomenon resulting from individual choices rather than a problem needing active intervention [40]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing growth ("small stocks") and stability ("large stocks") in investment strategies to navigate through different market cycles effectively [5][20]. Group 1: Historical Perspective on Investment Strategies - The distinction between "old stocks" and "new stocks" is not about superiority; both serve as tools in an investment portfolio, with their effectiveness varying by market conditions [6][7]. - Historical data shows that while growth stocks may outperform during bull markets, stable dividend-paying stocks can provide consistent returns over the long term, mitigating risks during downturns [11][14]. - The performance of various indices from 2013 to 2025 illustrates that while growth stocks can have significant short-term gains, they also experience substantial drawdowns, whereas dividend low-volatility stocks offer steadier returns [12][13]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by higher volatility and faster rhythms, making high dividend and low volatility strategies particularly valuable [15]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index employs strict rules to ensure sustainable dividends and avoid pitfalls like "dividend traps" [17][18]. - Over the past three to seven years, the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, demonstrating its effectiveness in providing stable returns [19]. Group 3: A+H Market Strategy - The core value of low-volatility dividend stocks lies in their defensive role within a portfolio, providing stability and peace of mind for investors [21]. - The A-share market's low-volatility dividend ETF has proven its defensive value over the past decade, while the Hong Kong counterpart offers new opportunities for investors [21][22]. - A balanced approach combining both defensive and growth-oriented assets is essential for long-term investment success [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pitfalls of conventional thinking and qualities such as insight, explanation, and persistence in the context of investing and entrepreneurship, highlighting how these traits can lead to significant losses in a volatile market environment [2][31]. Group 1: Insight - Insight is a highly valued quality in large companies, allowing individuals to identify overlooked opportunities and gain recognition [7]. - However, in investing and entrepreneurship, insight can be a double-edged sword, leading to overconfidence and eventual failure due to the "survivorship bias" [8][10]. - The article emphasizes that many perceived "blue oceans" are actually "dead seas" where previous entrepreneurs have failed, indicating that not all opportunities are viable [12]. Group 2: Explanation - In corporate environments, strong explanation skills are crucial for success, as they help in clarifying situations and decisions to various stakeholders [17]. - In investing, however, the reliance on explanations can lead to self-deception, where investors rationalize losses instead of acknowledging market realities [20]. - The article warns that a strong explanatory ability can suppress the perception of reality, causing investors to ignore adverse factors that may affect their investments [20]. Group 3: Persistence - Persistence is often overvalued in investing, as it can lead to catastrophic losses if not paired with high probability success and the ability to adapt to changing circumstances [25][26]. - Investors who are overly persistent may ignore critical changes in a company's fundamentals, mistaking market fluctuations as tests of their resolve [27]. - The article concludes that successful investing requires a balance between persistence and the willingness to adapt strategies based on new information, rather than a blind commitment to a single approach [30].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 十一国庆假期来了，回顾9月A股行情，你赚到钱了吗？ 如果把时间线拉长到前三个季度，你会发现这是一次注定要写进市场史册的行情：创业板单季暴涨50%，科创50飙升近49%，跻身全球涨幅冠军行 列。 国庆长假正好是复盘投资的好时机。此外不妨把眼光从K线里移开，看看几部关于投资与金融的纪录片，换一个角度思考财富与市场。 01 创业板指牛冠全球！ 亚洲股指包揽全球涨幅榜前14名 2025年三季度全球主要股指涨跌幅榜单出炉，A股包揽涨幅榜前三。 其中，创业板指三季度暴涨50.4%，牛冠全球；科创50指数以49.02%的季度涨幅位列第二，深证成指累涨29.25%位居第三。 恒生科技指数 (21.93%)、胡志明指数(20.33%)分列4、5名。沪深300指数以17.9%的季度涨幅位列第8，台湾加权指数(16.02%)、沪指(12.73%)、恒指(11.56%)依次 排在第11~12名。 亚洲股指包揽了涨幅榜前14名，其中A股占据5席，逼近半壁江山；港股占据2席，台股占1席。另外，越南股指占2席，泰国、印 尼、韩国、日本股指各占1席。 整个9月的A股，有点惊心动魄。 近一个月里，沪指五次 ...

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 1/7 一个数学家提出的股票问题 每当有人问我应该集中持仓还是分散投资时，我都会让他们做一道简单的算术题，我认为，把投资的过程量化，更容易理解钱是如何赚到或亏掉 的。 这道题收录在数学家约翰·保罗士写的《一个数学家玩转股票市场》一书中：如果给你提供一些股票，这些股票每周有一半可能性上涨80%，一半 可能性下跌60%，你觉得这些股票能不能投资？ 你一定会想，上涨赚8万，下跌亏6万，而且概率对半，这事当然可以干！ 没错，你这么算就是所谓"正期望值"，那么，给你10万块本金，10周的时间，你怎么投资呢？ 你想了一想说，既然赔率这么明确了，索性简单点，一把梭，每周全仓买一个股票，十周下来，赚亏的次数应该差不多，收益就出来了。 好的，就按你说的投资，10万元每周全仓持有一支，10周后，假设其中5周上涨80%，5周下跌60%，你可以得到多少钱？ 计算过程很简单：1 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：张翼轸 来源：雪球 "线性外推"，这是我们常说的投资大忌。 今天上涨，明天就会继续上涨；今天下跌，明天就会继续下跌。许多的投资者，有着这样朴素的思维，所以愿意去买过去表现很好的标的，并摒弃 过去表现很差的标的。 然而，在投资领域，其实有一种风险比"线性外推"的失败更为危险——那便是我们对线性外推成功中蕴含的风险视而不见。 是的，线性外推，对许多具体的企业、行业，往往是致命的。 但对于股市整体，由于其包含着所有的成功者和失败者，所以彼此对冲之下，往往能规避这些风险，而成为 GDP 的同路人，线性外推反而尤其可 取之处。 最近用美股 S&P 500全收益指数做了一次对数线性回归。因为 Wind 上只有 1988 年迄今的数据，所以回归仅限于此。但即使如此，也是将近 40 年的数据了。 但其实无论是投资，还是我们的生活，能看到太多"线性外推"的失败案例。 就像我入行纸媒的2005 年，正是纸媒市场化如日中天的时候，不仅盈利客观，而且许多城市的纸媒"商战"的频率和力度，不亚于当下的外卖大 ...

近期，有金融机构冠以"雪球结构"的自动敲入敲出类 期权 产品引发了市场的关注。因为名称当中含有"雪球"二字，使得一些用户、投资者咨询这种"雪球结构"是否为雪球所发 布。 雪球郑重声明，雪球公司于2015年12月3日在第36类"金融服务、金融咨询"等服务上申请 "雪球"商标， 并于2017年9月21日获准注册，有效期至2027年9月20日。 《商标法》禁止未经许可使用他人注册商标。任 何未经雪球公司授权，擅自在金融产品名称中使用"雪球"商标的行为，均涉嫌违反《商标法》的相关规定。雪球敦促 相关各方谨慎处理，尽快更正名称中的不当用法，并澄清所造成的混淆后果。对拒不更正者，雪球公司保留采取法律 行动和救济措施的权利，一切不利后果将由侵权方自行承担。 雪球公司也在多起涉及该类型商标侵权案件 中胜诉，法院在判决中支持了雪球公司的维权主张，认定雪球公司对"雪球"商标享有注册商标专用权，被告方未经雪 球公司许可，擅自在其设立的 基金 产品名称中使用"雪球"字样，侵犯了雪 球公司的"雪球"注册商标专用权，构成商标侵权行为。同时，针对被告方认为"雪球"为描述某类金融产品特点的通用 名称的主张，法院予以明确驳回。 另外，雪球也提 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.35%, while the ChiNext Index remained flat and the North Stock 50 fell by 0.70% [2] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 21,972 billion yuan, an increase of 191 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2,600 stocks rising [2] Group 2: Semiconductor and Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector experienced a significant surge, with the sector's index rising nearly 4%, and stocks like Jiangbolong and Demingli hitting the daily limit [5] - Major global storage chip manufacturers, including SanDisk, Micron, and Western Digital, have announced price increases, with SanDisk's stock rising nearly 17% and Micron's over 4% [7] - The price increase is attributed to a restructuring of supply and demand in the storage industry, with major manufacturers reducing production and increasing demand driven by AI investments [7][8] Group 3: AI Application Sector - The AI application sector saw a strong performance, with companies like Kunlun Wanwei and Keda Xunfei showing notable gains [10] - DeepSeek announced the release of its new model, DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, which significantly reduces service costs, leading to a 50% decrease in API usage costs for developers [12] - The adaptation of DeepSeek's new model by several domestic chip manufacturers indicates a significant breakthrough in the AI industry [12] Group 4: Precious Metals Sector - Gold prices reached a new high of $3,860 per ounce, with companies like Zhongjin Gold and Shengda Resources seeing gains of nearly 4% [15] - Silver futures experienced a surge of 4.5%, with silver prices rising by 40% since June, driven by industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic industry [18][19] - The supply constraints in the silver market are expected to continue, with a projected decline in global silver mine supply in 2024 [20]