以下文章来源于长线是金11 ，作者长线是金11 长线是金11 . 记录本人的投资心得，希望能对大家有所帮助 前几天，有位网友说现在的白酒与一致性看空还有着不小的差距，主要理由是有许多大V仍在看多白酒，一些相关评论文章经常可以出现在热搜榜 的前列。 我想这种言论可能对"一致性预期"有着不小的误解，事实上叫所有人全部持一种观点是不现实的，市场上永远都会存在不同的声音，理性者不可能 彻底消失。 就好比前几年银行股要死不活的时候，却一直有大V对其不离不弃，例如云蒙、董宝珍、谷子地等等，压根从来就没缴械认输过，并且这些人的粉 丝里也不乏为之摇旗呐喊者。 还有2022-2023年的腾讯，绝对一直都是争论的热点之一，看衰者有之，看多、鼓吹王子落难的人也同样不少，有些相互争辩的帖子现在都可以查 得到。 上述两个不久前发生的例子，大家应该或多或少都还会有一些记忆，对比一下，不难发现前两者和白酒现在的情况其实差不多，虽然看空的声音占 据主流，但是看多的依然大有人在。 既然这世界总会有不同的声音，那么到底怎样的情况，才算进入了"一致性预期"的境界呢？具体应该怎样来界定呢？ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作 ...

其中，十天八板涨超130%的长城军工昨日发布严重异常波动公告，称："公司股票击鼓传花效应十分明显,交易风险极大,存在短期大幅下跌的风险。 敬请广大投资者理性投资,注意投资风险" A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指涨0.39%，收报3457.75点；深证成指涨0.11%，收报10476.29点；创业板指跌0.24%，收报2147.92点。 沪深两市成交额达到14660亿，较昨日小幅缩量208亿。 政策催化下创新药板块强势领涨。调整后的银行板块今日展开反弹，建设银行等再创历史新高。玻璃玻纤、化学制药、生物制品、船舶制造、贵金 属、电力行业也涨幅居前。多元金融、软件开发、电池、计算机设备板块跌幅居前。 01 军工板块持续活跃 先前活跃的军工板块在早盘的沉寂后，午后持续拉升，长城军工触及涨停再创新高，中船应急、利君股份此前封板，中科海讯涨超10%。 对于热传的军工重组概念，公告中表示，公司控股股东及实际控制人未筹划涉及公司的重大资产重组、股份发行、收购等重大事项。未筹划重大资 产重组事项。 不过今天股价继续涨停封板，成交额超46亿。 国金军工杨晨指出，2025年是十四五收官和十五五布局的关键期，行业景气反转和全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various asset classes in the current market, highlighting the significant divergence in returns and the overall positive market sentiment [4]. Asset Performance Summary - Gold has shown a strong performance this year with a cumulative increase of 24.15%, making it the top-performing asset amid rising geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [6]. - The Hong Kong stock market has rebounded significantly, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 21.06% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 19.55%, reversing the previous two years' sluggishness [6]. - In contrast, the A-share market has underperformed, with the CSI 1000 Index up by 5.36% and the large-cap CSI 300 Index slightly down by 0.33%, indicating more structural opportunities within the market [6]. - Overseas markets have also performed well, with the German DAX Index leading at a 20.71% increase, followed by the UK FTSE 100, NASDAQ 100, and S&P 500, which rose by 7.66%, 7.24%, and 4.96% respectively [6]. - The bond market has seen a modest increase, with the CSI Government Bond Index up by 0.95%, reflecting reduced attractiveness of bond assets as funds shift towards equity and risk assets in a low-interest-rate environment [6]. Valuation Insights - Current market valuations are relatively high, with the overall market PE ratio at 38.37, placing it in the 89.04th percentile over the past five years and 63.56th percentile over the past ten years [8]. - Certain sectors, particularly consumer and healthcare, remain undervalued, while others have reached normal valuation levels [8]. Market Trends and Investor Strategy - The market sentiment is positive, but the improvement in corporate performance will be crucial for future market heights, with valuation metrics serving as important indicators [9]. - The long-term market strength indicator suggests that over 80% of stocks are in a long-term upward trend, with recent rebounds in the market [12]. - The rapid increase in information efficiency, particularly in the AI sector, is accelerating corporate growth cycles, making it increasingly difficult for smaller companies to compete against larger firms [13]. - Ordinary investors may need to adopt a broader asset allocation strategy rather than focusing solely on individual stocks to capture significant market opportunities [13]. - The concept of being present in bull markets is emphasized, suggesting that investors should aim to maintain positions in assets that are performing well [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anchoring effect in investment psychology, emphasizing how it can hinder investors' decision-making and lead to missed opportunities in a recovering market [2][4]. Group 1: Understanding the Anchoring Effect - The anchoring effect refers to the tendency of individuals to rely heavily on initial information or reference points when making decisions, which can lead to irrational choices in investments [4]. - In investment contexts, this effect manifests when investors fixate on their purchase price, causing hesitation to cut losses or premature profit-taking [4]. Group 2: Formation of the Anchoring Effect - The psychological impact of prolonged bear markets has created a "PTSD" effect among investors, leading to a pessimistic outlook and reluctance to engage in the market during recoveries [5][6]. - The recent history of market downturns has made many investors overly cautious, resulting in missed opportunities during the initial phases of market rebounds [7]. Group 3: Investment Focus Beyond Purchase Price - Investors should focus on the macro and microeconomic environment and the underlying investment logic of assets rather than their purchase prices [8]. - Notable investor Anthony Bolton highlights that the Chinese market is currently undervalued compared to global markets, presenting a historical investment opportunity [8]. - The market has already priced in negative sentiments, indicating a potential turning point for positive sentiment [9]. - Government policies are supportive of market growth, with low bond yields enhancing the attractiveness of equities [9]. Group 4: Recommendations for Observing Investors - Investors are advised to abandon bear market mentalities and recognize that market conditions have changed, making current opportunities more appealing [12]. - A phased investment approach is recommended, where investors gradually build positions rather than making large, impulsive investments [13]. - A balanced asset allocation strategy is suggested, combining equities and bonds to mitigate risks while capitalizing on market movements [14]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategy - Effective asset allocation involves diversifying across different asset classes, markets, and timeframes to reduce risk and enhance returns [16]. - The article introduces a practical tool for asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of diversification in investment strategies [16].

以下文章来源于养基场王场长 ，作者王场长 养基场王场长 . 牢记基金投资中的第一性原理——通过基金赚钱。 关注我们，陪伴我们，一起成长，一起赚钱。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 养基场王场长 来源：雪球 唐朝的开国名将 ， 商朝的陈塘关总兵 ， 佛教的毗沙门天王 ， 道教的阐教三代弟子 ， 天庭的托塔天王 。 这些跨越了千年历史与人神佛三界的title ， 都归于一个人 —— 李靖 ， 哪吒他爹 。 而在投资中 ， 如果要选出一个能有如此多title的存在 ， 那我想一定是港股的科技主题 。 目前市场上比较 纯粹的 ， 跟踪港股科技主题的指数就有十个 ， 跟踪的基金就高达125只 。 | 指数名称 | 发布日期 | 指数类型 | 产品跟踪数量 | 近1年收益率 | 发布机构 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技 | 2020-07-27 | 股票指数 | 54 (ETF: 10) | 32.57% | 恒生指数有限公司 | | 恒生互联网科技业 | 2015-08-17 | 股票指数 | 1 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 何纯在南国 来源：雪球 今天有朋友@我 ， 又谈到了小盘股的估值问题 。 其实这个事情是老生常谈了 ， 大家对小盘股 的估值分歧一直就很大 。 很多人对小盘股不屑一顾 ， 认为这当中绝大部分都是垃圾 ， 估值高的离谱 。 如果你是看市盈 率的话 ， 这样的说法当然没错 。 中证2000的市盈率长期都在60倍到100倍之间 。 如果一个企 业盈利不变的话 ， 你投入一笔资金要60年到100年才能回本 ， 这类股票怎么可能还有投资价值 呢 ？ 当大家评估一家公司的资产时 ， 是不是应该把这种隐性价值考虑进去呢 ？ 其实在小微盘股里面 也有很多的不错标的 ， 市净率在1.5倍以下 ， 负债率很低 ， 资产非常干净 ， 像这类公司 ， 个人认为是很有投资价值的 。 我个人原来一直就是做纯价值投资的 ， 对纯价值投资做得很好的人是非常推崇的 。 个人最近5 年的纯价值投资 ， 不过和小微盘策略相比 ， 这样的投资收益就不值一提了 。 在中国股市上要做投资 ， 还是要结合中国股市实际的运行情况来分析 。 雪球三分法是雪球基于"长 ...

A股今日半年度收官，从上半年市场表现来看，主要股指全线上涨。其中沪指上半年涨2.76%， 北证50指数大涨39.45%一度创出历史新高。 今天板块上看，军工、游戏、脑机接口、光刻机、光伏板块涨幅居前；银行、证券、汽车整车、 乳业板块表现落后。 此外，港股新消费板块也持续火热，老铺黄金大涨近16%，刷新历史新高。一起来看今天热点。 01 军工板块燃爆六月！ 六月中旬以来，军工板块持续火热。恒宇信通、晨曦航空20%涨停，长城军工、利君股份、光电 股份、中航沈飞等纷纷上扬，板块整体走势强劲。 | ▲ | 年工表面 | | ... () A | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2616.04 (+133.07 +5.36%) | | | | 讨论 板块分析 | 成分股 | 相关ETF | 资讯 | | | 全部(79) 连板 关注度 主力资金 北向净流 | | | | 名称 | 最新价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 市盈率 ◆ | | 恒宇信通 | 65.80 | +20.01% | 157.14 | | SZ300965 | | | | | 晨曦航空 | | 20.47 +19.99% | - ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors should adopt a broad perspective and not limit themselves to a single industry or company, seeking undervalued opportunities across the market and being ready to switch strategies for maximizing returns [2][3]. Investment Strategies - The first investment strategy is suitable for investors who are broad-minded, diligent, and flexible. This approach involves continuously searching for undervalued stocks across various industries [4]. - The second investment strategy focuses on identifying a specific industry and company, particularly during the bottom of a cycle, to buy and sell at the peak, capturing most of the gains from that company's performance during the industry cycle [5][6]. - For growth stocks, the strategy involves investing in companies with low market penetration that are leaders in their sector, buying during their early growth phase and selling during their stable growth phase [5]. Investor Characteristics - The first strategy is ideal for investors with a broad, active, and adaptable nature, while the second strategy is more suited for those who are deep, relatively passive, and committed to specific stocks [6][7]. - Both strategies have their own merits and risks, and successful execution can lead to high investment returns [7]. Example in Gold Stocks - Investors with broad characteristics can switch among various gold stocks like Zhongjin Gold, Libo Gold, and Shandong Gold to maximize returns, while those with a deeper focus may choose to hold onto a single gold stock throughout the investment period [7]. Snowball Three-Point Method - The Snowball Three-Point Method emphasizes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve diversified sources of returns and risk mitigation [8].

风云君的研究笔记 . 专注私募研究，洞察私募行业热点，私募策略、单品全面分析解析。更有高端专业的私募圈子-厚雪长 坡俱乐部(严格筛选，永久免费，知己同行) 以下文章来源于风云君的研究笔记 ，作者专注私募研究的 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：风云君的研究笔记 上周五复盘策略环境的时候聊到最近的贴水和中性产品的表现，很多朋友都非常感兴趣。今天风 云君就来跟大家好好聊聊，量化中性策略到底是怎么赚钱的？买中性产品是否要择时？ 量化中性策略，在不少投资人心里，被归为"低波稳健"类产品，也曾一度成为银行理财替代品的 首选。这类策略在环境适宜的情况下，确实能做到高风险收益比，持有体验佳。 但它也经历过不少"滑铁卢"时刻，回撤大到让人质疑是不是策略失效了？但稍微了解一下中性策 略的底层运作逻辑，就能理解它的"成"与"败"是缘何而来。 这种策略是"左脚踩油门、右脚踩刹车"，通过精妙的计算和对冲来实现平衡。虽然听起来完美， 但仔细想想就知道，油门不足和刹车失灵的风险都是存在的，中性策略的尾部风险不可忽视。 中性策略是怎么赚钱的？ 中性策略的目标是获取与市场涨跌无关的收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant cash dividend announced by Sinovac Biotech, which will distribute $55 per share to shareholders, resulting in an astonishing dividend yield of 850% based on its last trading price of $6.47 before suspension [1][2][8]. Group 1: Dividend Announcement - On June 18, Sinovac Biotech's board announced a special cash dividend of $55 per share to be paid on July 7, along with plans for additional dividends of $19 and a potential third dividend ranging from $20 to $50 per share [4][8]. - The dividend yield of 850% is calculated based on the stock price of $6.47 prior to the suspension, highlighting the extraordinary nature of this payout [2][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Sinovac Biotech, a well-known biotechnology and vaccine production company, reported a net profit of $44.92 million in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic [11]. - The company saw a dramatic increase in revenue during the pandemic, with total revenue reaching $19.375 billion in 2021, a 3694% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by COVID-19 vaccine sales [13]. - However, post-pandemic, the company's revenue plummeted to $1.5 billion in 2022, a 92% decrease, and it reported a net loss of $99.91 million in 2023, a 187% decline year-over-year [14]. Group 3: Governance Issues - Sinovac Biotech has been embroiled in a seven-year power struggle, which began in 2015 between its founder and a rival shareholder, leading to a series of legal battles and governance disputes [15][17]. - The board's composition was challenged, and a recent ruling by the UK Privy Council replaced several board members, raising questions about the legitimacy of the current board [18]. - The ongoing governance issues have led to speculation that the large dividend payout may be a strategy to weaken potential opposition by depleting the company's cash reserves [18].