利弗莫尔的财富过山车 1907年美国股灾 ， 是利弗莫尔传奇的起点 。 他精准预判崩盘 ， 提前布局做空 ， 股价如瀑布般下泄 ， 他狂揽300万美元 ， 从 " 穷小子 " 一 跃成为华尔街传奇 。 可辉煌 如泡沫 ， 不到两年 ， 他就输光大部分资金 。 并非行情背弃了他 ， 而是心态膨胀让他在市场中迷失 —— 赚到大 钱后 ， 他自认 " 无所不能 " ， 却不知 " 自负才是交易最大的陷阱 " ， 市场狠狠教训了这位 " 天之骄子 " 。 02 赚钱易 ， 守钱难 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： ETF海龟 来源：雪球 在交易的世界里 ， 不少人都有这样的困惑 ： 好不容易赚到的钱 ， 为何总是很快又亏回去 ？ 很多人将原因归咎于市场的复杂难测 ， 却忽略了 人性才是背后的关键变量 。 01 03 心为秤 ， 盘为镜 利弗莫尔曾言 ： " 市场让我明白 ， 赚钱的难点不在行情 ， 而在自己 。 " 这句话戳中了交易的本质 —— 真正的挑战是 " 修心 " ， 而非单纯研 究K线与行情 。 市场从不是单纯 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant performance of actively managed equity funds in the A-share market, with many funds achieving substantial returns due to the market rally [2][3] - The main indices showed strong upward trends in the first eight months, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 51.49%, while other indices like the ChiNext and the STAR Market also saw increases exceeding 30% [4][5] - Actively managed equity funds recorded an average net value growth rate of 23.83% in the same period, with ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds achieving even higher growth rates of 28.38% and 28.79% respectively [5][6] Group 2 - A remarkable 98.19% of actively managed equity funds reported positive net value growth, with 603 funds achieving over 50% growth, and 21 funds exceeding 100% [6] - Notable funds with exceptional performance include Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, which achieved a net value growth of 175.68%, and other funds like Zhonghang Opportunity Leading A and Changcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Selection A also performed well [7] Group 3 - Prominent fund manager Zhang Kun expressed optimism about domestic consumption and highlighted the importance of long-term investment opportunities in high-quality companies, despite prevailing market pessimism [8][12] - Other well-known fund managers, such as Zhu Shaoxing and Ge Lan, have also made significant adjustments to their portfolios, focusing on sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology, indicating a positive outlook for the market [13][15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the distinction between "slow bull" and "fast bull" markets, emphasizing the importance of internal value driving market movements rather than just the speed of index increases [4][10][28]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The VIX index is used as a key indicator to determine whether market increases are driven by internal value or emotional factors [4][31]. - Currently, the VIX index stands at 20.92, slightly above the warning line of 20, indicating a potential risk but not at a critical level [5][31]. - The article notes that the VIX index reached a much higher level of 50.37 last year, suggesting a more extreme volatility environment [7]. Group 2: Internal Value Estimation - The theoretical valuation of the CSI 300 index is estimated at 15.69, while the actual dynamic PE is 13.97, indicating an approximate 11% discount in internal value compared to actual prices [19][33]. - Key contributors to the valuation uplift include a decrease in foreign exchange pressure, with the forward exchange rate swap points dropping from 3.42% to 2.36%, equating to a 106 basis point reduction in interest rates, potentially contributing to a 16% price increase [23][28]. - The improvement in core CPI, which rose from 0.40% to 0.80%, also contributes to the valuation uplift, accounting for about 6% of the potential price increase [27][28]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the market's recent upward movements are supported by strong fundamentals, although many investors may not recognize these underlying factors [28]. - The potential for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve could enhance the internal value of the CSI 300 index by approximately 4% [18]. - The article concludes that a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, including the VIX index and internal value estimations, is essential for assessing whether the market is experiencing a bubble or a justified rise [35].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 深夜，美股回调，阿里巴巴却带领中国资产大涨，其中阿里巴巴股价大涨近13%， 一夜之间，阿里巴巴市值上涨369亿美元，约合人民币2628亿 元。 盘面上大型科技股多数下跌，拖累了整体走势。个股方面，特斯拉跌超3%，英伟达跌逾3%，Meta跌超1%，亚马逊跌逾1%，微软跌0.58%，苹 果跌0.18%，谷歌涨0.6%。 芯片股同样普遍下跌，费城半导体指数大跌3.15%。个股方面，迈威尔科技跌超18%，博通、超威半导体、台积电等跌超3%。 01 美股三大指数收跌 大型科技股多数下跌 当地时间周五，美股三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.2%报45544点，标普500指数跌0.64%报6460点，纳指跌1.15%报21455点。 其中，迈威尔科技在最新披露的财报中给出的业绩指引不及市场预期，引发了投资者对其未来业绩增长放缓的担忧。财报显示，该公司预计第三季 度的营收为20.6亿美元，低于分析师一致预期。 | 迈威尔科技 | | | --- | --- | | MRVL 已收盘08-29 16:00:00 美东 | | | 62.86 -14.36 -18.60% | 1.59万人加自选 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the implications of Trump's potential control over the Federal Reserve Board, suggesting that it could undermine the independence of the Fed and damage the credibility of the US dollar [3][4] - Trump's motivation to control the Federal Reserve is not only to achieve interest rate cuts but also to implement more aggressive monetary easing policies to reduce the burden of national debt [6][8] - Historical context is provided, indicating that past attempts to influence the Fed, such as Nixon's pressure on Chairman Burns, have been aimed at achieving similar monetary policy goals [4][5] Group 2 - The article references Ray Dalio's debt monetization theory, which includes measures such as reducing government spending, increasing fiscal revenue, and lowering interest rates [7] - The current US government debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 120%, with a critical threshold for potential crisis identified between 120% and 300% [8] - The article highlights the case of Turkey, where aggressive interest rate cuts led to a decrease in government debt ratio despite high inflation, illustrating a potential strategy for the US [9] Group 3 - The article predicts that if Trump seeks not only interest rate cuts but also monetary expansion, central banks worldwide may react by increasing gold purchases, potentially driving gold prices higher [14] - It notes that the US stock market is undergoing a revaluation of gold and resource stocks in light of the broader context of US debt monetization and dollar depreciation [14] - The article suggests that the general public tends to be slow to react to rising gold prices, but as prices stabilize, acceptance of higher prices will increase, leading to a resurgence in gold jewelry sales [14]

以下文章来源于风云君的研究笔记 ，作者专注私募研究的 风云君的研究笔记 . 深耕私募行业多年，专注私募基金各个策略以及资产配置，希望能分享给大家更深入、更专业的私募那 些事。 | | | | | | 500指增管理人周度表现(8.18-8.22) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基准指数:中证500周度收益率3.87% | | | | | | | | | | 管理人 | 成立时长 | 周度收益率 | 周度超额收益率 | 近一年收益率 | 近一年超额收益 | 今年以来收益率 | 今年以来超额收益 | 成立以来年化收益率 | | | 6.2年 | 4. 10% | 0. 23% | 91, 51% | 42. 77% | 38. 47% | 19. 31% | 26. 13% | | | 4.8年 | 3. 47% | -0. 40% | 85. 38% | 36. 64% | 38.96% | 19. 80% | 13.96% | | | 5.7年 | 4. 07% | 0. 20% | 84. 62% | 35 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the current bullish sentiment in the market and the anxiety among investors regarding their equity positions [4][5] - It emphasizes that while it is normal to feel anxious in a rapidly rising market, there is no need for excessive worry as long-term performance is challenging to outperform [5][7] - The article presents data showing that from 2010 to now, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 61.38%, while actively managed equity funds have returned 102.04%, indicating that consistent outperformance is difficult [5][7] Group 2 - The article suggests that investors should gradually increase their risk appetite rather than making drastic changes to their portfolios [10][12] - It recommends optimizing bond fund holdings by transitioning from pure bond funds to those with some equity exposure, thereby increasing risk exposure incrementally [13] - The article also highlights the importance of adjusting dividend stock holdings to include funds with growth attributes, as traditional dividend strategies may lag in a bullish market [15][16] Group 3 - For broad index investments, the article advises switching from the Shanghai Index or CSI 300 to the more balanced and growth-oriented CSI A500 [19] - It suggests that investors holding growth-oriented ETFs should consider upgrading to indices that have stronger performance potential in a bull market [20] - The article emphasizes that any adjustments should be made cautiously to avoid significant risks if the market does not perform as expected [21] Group 4 - The article discusses the optimization of actively managed funds, recommending a shift from deep value funds to balanced value and then to growth-oriented funds as market conditions improve [22] - It suggests rotating between fund managers based on performance, favoring those who have shown better results in the current market environment [23] - The overall message is to maintain a calm approach to investing, making small adjustments to align with the current market sentiment while managing risk effectively [25]

Core Viewpoint - Keep has reported a significant financial turnaround in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 821.8 million yuan, a decline year-on-year, but marking its first positive net profit of 10.35 million yuan and an increase in gross margin to 52.2% [1] Industry Context - The fitness technology sector has evolved over the past decade, transitioning from basic tracking devices to online courses and home fitness hardware, but struggled to enhance user engagement [2] - The introduction of AI has transformed the landscape, addressing the need for personalized guidance in fitness, which traditional apps failed to provide [2] AI Integration in Keep's Strategy - Keep's "All in AI" strategy integrates AI across all business aspects, including the launch of an AI coach named "Kaka" that offers personalized training plans, dietary advice, and performance analysis [3] - The application of AI has improved operational efficiency, contributing to Keep's gross margin increase to 52.2% in the first half of 2025 [3] User Engagement and Value Growth - Keep aims to expand its services from mere training to comprehensive health management, incorporating diet, sleep, and recovery into its offerings [4] - Despite a decline in monthly active users to 22.49 million from 29.66 million year-on-year, the membership penetration rate increased to 12.4%, and the average monthly revenue per active user rose to 6.1 yuan [4] Market Expansion Potential - AI enables Keep to reach a broader audience, including middle-aged and elderly users, and expand fitness activities beyond home workouts to outdoor sports [5] - The AI coach has shown commercial potential, with over 150,000 daily active users and a 50% next-day retention rate for its dietary tracking feature [5] Competitive Advantage - Keep's decade-long experience has provided it with a vast database of over 400 million user behaviors, giving it a competitive edge in AI model training and application [6] - The successful implementation of AI in Keep's operations reflects a significant shift in how fitness services are delivered and experienced by users [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in A-shares, attributing it primarily to foreign capital flows rather than retail investors, highlighting the influence of U.S. interest rate changes on global capital movement [3][9]. Group 1: Retail Investors - Retail investors are not the main driving force behind the recent market surge, as their buying power is highly dispersed and lacks the ability to form a decisive impact [4][5]. - Retail investors tend to chase trends, buying during upswings but are unlikely to counteract downward trends [5][6]. Group 2: Main Players in the Market - The primary influence on the market comes from foreign capital, which is significantly affected by U.S. interest rate policies [6][9]. - When the U.S. raises interest rates, capital flows into the U.S., while a decrease leads to capital flowing out, impacting other markets, including China [7][8]. Group 3: Currency and Market Correlation - There is a notable correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the performance of the stock market, with RMB appreciation generally leading to stock market gains and depreciation leading to losses [13][15]. - The article illustrates that from April to the present, the RMB has been in an appreciation phase, which correlates with a stronger performance in A-shares [15][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While current foreign capital inflows are positive for the market, predicting future movements based on currency fluctuations remains challenging [19][20].

Market Overview - In August, the A-share market showed a strong upward trend, with the three major indices all experiencing significant monthly gains. The ChiNext Index rose over 24%, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3,800 points, reaching a 10-year high, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index surged by 28% [2] - The main market focus this month was on computing power and chip sectors, with stocks like Xinyisheng hitting historical highs and Industrial Fulian's market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion [2] Individual Stocks Performance - Over 4,000 stocks recorded monthly gains, with 14 stocks (excluding new and ST stocks) rising over 100%. The top performer was Gebijia from the Beijing Stock Exchange, which surged by 155% [3] - Notable stocks in the new energy sector included CATL, which saw a 10% increase, driving the lithium battery concept [4][5] Lithium Battery Sector - CATL's stock price rose by over 14% at one point, closing with a 10% increase, bringing its market value to 1.4 trillion. Other companies in the lithium battery supply chain, such as Xianlead and Hanke Technology, also saw significant gains [8][10] - Xianlead reported a 43.86% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q2, reaching 3.512 billion, and a staggering 456.29% increase in net profit [13] Consumer Sector Recovery - The consumer sector showed signs of recovery, particularly in the liquor market, with stocks like Jinhuijiu and Shede Liquor performing well. The overall liquor sector index rose over 2% [15][16] - Various local governments have implemented consumption stimulus policies, which are expected to boost consumer spending, especially with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [19][20] Chip Sector Dynamics - The chip sector experienced a pullback, with stocks like Cambrian Technologies dropping by 6% after a risk warning announcement regarding its future revenue projections [21][24] - Despite the pullback in some chip stocks, Industrial Fulian continued to perform strongly, achieving a market cap of 1.07 trillion and a cumulative increase of over 150% since July [26][27]