来源：雪球 以下文章来源于风云君的研究笔记 ，作者专注私募研究的 风云君的研究笔记 . 专注私募研究，洞察私募行业热点，私募策略、单品全面分析解析。更有高端专业的私募圈子-厚雪长 坡俱乐部(严格筛选，永久免费，知己同行) 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 风云君的研究笔记 这个问题可能很多做私募的投资人都没有察觉到，今天风云君就和大家聊聊。 为什么这几年业绩好的主观多头都主做 港股 ？ 还记得19-21年A股那波"核心资产牛"吗？一众主观多头私募风光无限，动不动就3、4倍的收益， 引得众多投资者追捧，比如依靠消费涨近300%的SF： 以及重仓光伏新能源收获近5倍收益的ZY： 但是，在21年后他们却都"不约而同"的携手下山，或将涨幅全部吐回，或业绩近乎腰斩。 这是发生了啥？ 归根结底，做主观策略的管理人，赚的都是公司成长的钱，最厉害的本事是基于基本面的选股和 持股。那三年有明显的产业趋势，消费、医药、新能源等都涨势迅猛，跟着趋势选牛股，相对是 比较容易的。但从22年开始，A股这种明显的产业趋势没了，行业轮动加剧，大小盘风格也频繁 切换。 相比 A股 ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in the valuation of dividend indices following the annual report updates, attributing this rise to the use of static price-to-earnings (PE) ratios by the China Securities Index, which contrasts with the rolling PE ratios used by other platforms [3][10]. Valuation Changes of Dividend Indices - The valuation of various dividend indices has seen notable changes, with the PE ratios increasing significantly post-annual report updates. For instance, the Dividend Index's PE rose from 7.19 to 8.71, marking a 21.14% increase, while the dividend yield remained stable at 7.10% [7]. - The China Securities Dividend Index also experienced a PE increase of 22.46%, from 7.88 to 9.65, with a slight decrease in dividend yield [7]. - The low-volatility dividend indices showed a lower increase in PE ratios, indicating a more stable valuation compared to single-factor dividend indices [8]. Industry and Sample Performance - The analysis of the China Securities Dividend Index reveals that 58 out of 100 sample companies experienced a decline in profit year-on-year, with an average profit drop of 12.99% [16][17]. - Revenue performance was similarly affected, with 60% of the sample companies reporting a decline in revenue, averaging a decrease of 3.89% [17]. - Industries facing profit declines include coal, transportation, steel, media, and construction materials, while banking and public utilities showed stable profit growth [19][20]. Conclusion on Dividend Indices - The overall valuation increase in dividend indices is primarily driven by the decline in profits among key sectors like coal and steel, leading to a significant rise in PE ratios. Despite this, the indices maintain a stable profit outlook, suggesting that investors can hold onto these indices without excessive concern [20][21].

特朗普又出关税大消息，当地时间5月16日，特朗普表示，未来两到三周内，美国可能会单方面对许多贸易伙伴设定新的关税税率。 昨晚美股高开高走，标普连涨第五天，道指收复年内所有跌幅。截至收盘，道指涨0.78%，标普500指数涨0.7%，纳指涨0.52%。 不过盘后，国际信用评级机构穆迪宣布，由于美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1。 01 特朗普又出关税大消息 据英国《金融时报》报道，当地时间5月16日，美国总统特朗普表示，未来两到三周内，美国可能会单方面对许多贸易伙伴设定新的关税税率。特 朗普称，美国缺乏与所有贸易伙伴通过谈判达成协议的能力。 特朗普当天在阿联酋与企业高管会面时表示，财政部长贝森特和商务部长卢特尼克将发出信函，告诉一些贸易伙伴，他们在美国做生意需要支付多 少钱。 特朗普进一步表示，"虽然有'150个国家'希望达成协议，但不可能与所有国家会面。我认为我们会给出公平的税率，想要与那么多国家见面并谈判 是不可能的。" 回顾此前，特朗普于4月2日宣布对数十个贸易伙伴加征所谓的"对等关税"，一度引发全球金融市场剧烈动荡，随后特朗普改口，宣布暂缓90天执 行，但几乎 ...

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴 实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 管理层最近一年一直在提股市的高质量发展 。高质量发展带来的牛市有什么不同呢 ？到底什么 是股市的高质量发展呢 ？ 一 、 高质量发展的典型案例 最近银行的上涨引起了很多人的关注 ， 大家都被涨得一脸懵逼 。 不知道为啥银行能涨得这么猛 ？ 很多人还一个劲的骂银行上涨 ， 怪银行虹吸了小盘股的流动性 。 反正银行一般都不讨投资者的喜爱 ， 公募和私募都不怎么碰 ， 散户更是瞧不上银行那点股价的 弹性 。 只有那些用来打新的账户 ， 才会买点银行作为底仓 。 然而 ， 大家都是短视的 ， 如果我们把时间拉长 ， 你就会发现银行的收益其实很高 。 银行全收益指数从2005年到现在 ， 涨了13倍 。不仅涨幅很大 ， 而且回撤相对小很多 。 指数在低波状态下缓慢爬坡 。 来源：雪球 不过 ， 如果我们只看银行指数 ， 就是另外一番景象 ...

Core Viewpoint - The refrigerant industry is positioned as a high-growth sector with limited supply and stable demand, making it a key focus for investment amidst global economic uncertainties [2][3]. Industry Logic - The refrigerant industry is characterized by supply constraints and stable demand, with traditional refrigerants harming the ozone layer and contributing to global warming, leading to quota management under the Montreal Protocol [3][4]. - The global production quota for third-generation refrigerants is fixed, with China accounting for over 80% of the global production quota [4][5]. - From 2024 onwards, the production and use of HFCs will be frozen at the average levels of 2020-2022, with gradual reductions planned until 2045 [5][6]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for refrigerants is primarily driven by air conditioning, which constitutes 70% of the demand, while the remaining 30% comes from mixed refrigerants [6][7]. - The annual demand for refrigerants is expected to grow slightly, supported by increasing air conditioning ownership in developing regions and stable growth in production [7][9]. - The supply of third-generation refrigerants will decrease over time, leading to higher prices due to the mismatch between supply and demand [9][11]. Competitive Landscape - The refrigerant market is dominated by a few key players, including Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., which collectively hold over 70% market share, reducing the likelihood of price wars [11][12]. - Juhua Co. holds a significant market share of over 40% in the third-generation refrigerant market, giving it substantial pricing power [12][13]. Price Trends - The price of third-generation refrigerants is currently below 50,000 yuan per ton, with potential for significant increases due to supply constraints and stable demand [14]. - The price of fourth-generation refrigerants is 3-10 times higher than that of third-generation refrigerants, indicating a substantial upward price potential for third-generation refrigerants [14]. Valuation Considerations - Current valuations for leading companies in the refrigerant sector, such as Juhua and Sanmei, are around 15 times earnings, which may be considered high compared to traditional chemical stocks [14][15]. - If refrigerant prices rise significantly, the profitability of these companies could increase, leading to higher market valuations [15]. Timing for Investment - The upcoming summer is expected to be particularly hot, potentially boosting air conditioning sales and maintenance rates [15]. - The implementation of quota systems in 2024 may create a gap in market expectations, presenting an opportunity for investment [15].

阿里股价下跌 5月15日，阿里巴巴公布了2025财年第四季度及全年财报。第四季度，阿里营收为2364.54亿元，同比增长7%。不按美国通用会计准则non-GAAP， 净利润为298.47亿元，同比增长22%。 市场延续了电风扇行情，题材加速轮动，机器人产业链掀涨停潮；高位股抱团加剧，成飞集成走出8连板；汽车产业链集体大涨，豪恩汽电、万安 科技等多股涨停。 业绩不及预期吗？ 另外每季度的13F报告，都是投资者观察顶级资金动向的窗口最近，巴菲特又有了新动作。 01 今日A股缩量调整，市场逾3000股飘红，全天成交1.09万亿元，较上一日缩量629亿。截至收盘，沪指跌0.40%，深证成指跌0.07%，创业板指跌 0.19%。 A股昨天涨幅榜领涨的银行、消费、外贸、港口今天领跌。 2025财年全年，阿里营收为9963.47亿元，同比增长6%。不按美国通用会计准则，净利润为1581.22亿元。 值得一提的是，包括淘宝、天猫、闲鱼、1688等在内的淘天集团Q4营收1013.69亿元，同比增长9%。全年营收为4498.27亿元，同比增长3%。 | | | 截至3月31 日止三個月 | | | | --- | --- | - ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 股市马斯克 来源：雪球 中东之行狂赚，推动纳指再度上涨，黄金继续回调！ 昨晚美股三大指数涨跌不一，黄金现货大幅下跌 以科技股为首的纳斯达克综合指数实现三连涨，收涨0.72%，标普500指数收涨0.10%，道琼斯指 数收跌0.21% 消息面上市场最关注的还是特没谱 不过这次不是Tariff，而是他的中东之行，疯狂吸金！ 在卡塔尔获得了历史性的1.2万亿美元的投资 在沙特获得了6000亿美元的投资 今天还将到访阿联酋，可能获得1.4万亿美元的投资 这次特没谱的中东之行无疑是一次巨大的招商会，带了贝莱德、花旗、IBM、高通、英伟达、 AMD 等众多企业一把手前往 据报道，英伟达将向沙特提供18000块Blackwell 芯片，作为首批交付，用于建设500兆瓦数据中心 计划在未来五年，英伟达还将向沙特供应数十万块最先进的 GPU，用于构建 AI 工厂 这一消息促使昨晚英伟达再度上涨4.16% 特斯拉方面的人形机器人也获得了投资，马斯克本人在沙特接受了专场采访，特斯拉股价昨晚大 涨4.07% 波音公司收获了约120架客机订单， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy and business insights of Duan Yongping, often referred to as the "Chinese version of Buffett," emphasizing his impact on various influential companies and the release of the book "The Great Way," which systematically organizes his thoughts on business and investment [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping's investment approach centers on value investing, which he defines as buying companies based on their future cash flow discounted to present value [3][4]. - Key considerations for investing in a company include its long-term profitability and how profits are distributed to shareholders [4]. Business Model and Company Culture - The importance of a strong business model and corporate culture is emphasized, with Duan stating that these factors are more critical than price in assessing a company's value [5][6]. - A good business model is characterized by consistent profits and cash flow, with high barriers to entry that deter competition [5]. Investment Criteria - Duan employs a "soul five questions" framework to evaluate companies, focusing on their business model, culture, and long-term prospects [7]. - He believes that understanding a limited number of companies deeply is more beneficial than spreading investments too thinly across many [8]. Successful Investments - Duan's notable investments include NetEase, Apple, and Moutai, with significant returns achieved through long-term holding [10][11][12]. - His success is attributed to a deep understanding of the companies he invests in, allowing him to hold onto them through market fluctuations [14]. Margin of Safety - The concept of margin of safety is crucial in Duan's investment strategy, emphasizing the need for a buffer when predicting future cash flows [15]. - He believes that the frequency of finding great investment opportunities is less important than the strength of the investment decisions made [16]. Valuation Insights - Duan stresses that learning to value companies takes time and that a solid understanding of a company's future cash flow is essential for making informed investment decisions [18][19]. - He advocates for using discounted cash flow (DCF) as a logical valuation method, focusing on companies with monopolistic advantages and strong cash flow certainty [19]. Long-term Perspective - The article underscores the importance of making principled investment choices and maintaining a long-term perspective, as exemplified by Duan's adherence to value investing principles [20][21]. - Duan's investment philosophy aligns with the belief that value investing leads to sustainable success and personal fulfillment [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and future potential of dividend investment strategies in the A-share market, highlighting the significant growth of dividend ETFs and the shift towards more growth-oriented dividend strategies [2][4][16]. Group 1: Growth-Oriented Dividend Strategies - The performance of high dividend strategies has been challenged by the growth style in the A-share market, particularly during the period from 2019 to 2020, where the CSI 300 Total Return Index rose by 80.79%, while the CSI Dividend Total Return Index only increased by 30.77% [6][7]. - The emergence of growth-oriented dividend strategies is gaining traction, as evidenced by the introduction of the CSI Dividend Quality ETF, which emphasizes both dividend yield and company growth potential [8][10]. - The CSI Dividend Quality Index has shown a significant outperformance compared to the traditional CSI Dividend Index during growth market phases, indicating a shift in investor preference towards more balanced strategies [11][16]. Group 2: Valuation-Based Dividend Strategies - The article highlights the potential of investing in Hong Kong stocks, which often trade at a discount compared to their A-share counterparts, leading to higher dividend yields in the Hong Kong market [17][20]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index has demonstrated a higher annualized dividend yield of 7.05% compared to the CSI Dividend Index's 5.05% from 2019 to April 2025, showcasing the attractiveness of Hong Kong dividend assets [19][20]. - The performance of the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index has outpaced the CSI Dividend Index in recent years, particularly in 2023, where it rose by 7.94% [19][21]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Dividend Strategies - The article presents data showing that dividend strategies have outperformed their non-dividend counterparts across various sectors from 2014 to April 2025, indicating the effectiveness of dividend-focused investment approaches [23]. - There is a growing interest in sector-specific dividend indices, although the market currently lacks such products, suggesting a potential area for future development [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Davis Double Play" phenomenon observed in the leading A-share pet food companies, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. and Guobao Pet, where both profit growth and valuation (P/E ratio) have increased simultaneously since 2024 [1][14]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Valuation - Profit growth for both companies began to accelerate in Q2 2023, with significant growth observed by Q2 2024, leading to a valuation rebound [2]. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. has a TTM P/E ratio of approximately 45.7, with a market cap of about 178.34 billion [8][11]. - Guobao Pet has a TTM P/E ratio of 63.92, significantly higher than the industry average of 41.41, reflecting a market premium for its high growth performance [10]. Group 2: EPS and P/E Relationship - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. experienced a price increase of approximately 237% over 10 months, while Guobao Pet saw a 160% increase over 9 months, illustrating the appeal of the "Davis Double Play" [11][12]. Group 3: Conditions for Davis Double Play - Not all industries with significant profit increases can achieve simultaneous valuation re-evaluation; key factors include market perceptions of profit sustainability, growth visibility, capital requirements, and industry risks [15]. - The "Davis Double Play" mechanism occurs when both EPS and P/E rise, leading to accelerated stock price increases [16]. Group 4: Industry Comparisons - Industries characterized by cyclical or commodity-driven profits often face valuation declines despite profit increases, as seen in sectors like steel and agriculture [20][22]. - In contrast, growth-oriented industries like pet food benefit from sustained consumer demand and brand penetration, leading to higher valuations [23]. Group 5: Summary Insights - Significant profit increases do not guarantee valuation increases; the market's assessment of profit sustainability and visibility is crucial [30]. - High capital expenditure industries tend to have lower valuations even with profit increases, while low capital requirement sectors can achieve higher valuations [24][25]. - Investor sentiment and thematic investment trends can significantly influence valuation re-evaluations, with sectors like pet food currently attracting sustained interest [27].