Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the two fundamental logic of investment: taking on risk to earn risk premiums and capturing market mispricing, with a focus on factor investing as a primary strategy for the "Tianxingjian" fund portfolio [2]. Factor Investment Summary 1. Size Factor: The "Comeback" of Small Companies - The size factor focuses on smaller companies, which may offer excess returns due to their higher risk profile and potential undervaluation by larger institutions [4]. 2. Value Factor: The Wisdom of Buying "Cheap Goods" - The value factor targets companies with low valuations, where the risk premium arises from potential financial troubles and market overreactions to bad news, leading to mispricing [5][6]. 3. Quality Factor: The "Reward" for Good Companies - The quality factor emphasizes financially healthy companies, where excess returns may stem from investor short-sightedness and the undervaluation of stable firms [7]. 4. Dividend Factor: The "Charm" of Cash Cows - The dividend factor focuses on companies with stable and high dividend payouts, where the risk premium may relate to growth uncertainties or interest rate sensitivities, leading to systematic undervaluation [8]. 5. Low Volatility Factor: Steady Happiness - The low volatility factor targets companies with lower stock price fluctuations, where excess returns may arise from market biases favoring high-risk stocks, resulting in undervaluation of low-volatility stocks [9]. Conclusion - Each factor that consistently outperforms the market is influenced by both risk premiums and market mispricing, with understanding these dynamics aiding in the effectiveness of factor investing [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive review of the performance of major A-share indices for the years 2024 and Q1 2025, highlighting trends in return on equity (ROE) and the overall economic conditions reflected by these indices [3][4][23]. Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The overall market benchmark, the Wind All A Index, shows a decline in ROE to 7.92% in 2024, a decrease of 6.34% year-on-year, indicating a continuing downward trend [7]. - In Q1 2025, the index ROE further decreased from 2.21% in Q1 2024 to 2.19%, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous years [7]. Group 2: Major Indices - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, representing the largest 50 companies in the Shanghai market, recorded a ROE of 10.59% in 2024, a slight increase of 0.14% from 2023, but saw a decline in Q1 2025 to 2.60% [8]. - The Shenzhen 100 Index, which includes the largest 100 companies in the Shenzhen market, experienced a significant drop in ROE to 10.59% in 2024, a decrease of 14.32% from the previous year, but rebounded to 3% in Q1 2025, reflecting a 15.88% increase [9][10]. Group 3: A-Series Indices - The CSI A50 Index, a key large-cap index, had a ROE of 11.62% in 2024, with a slight decline to 2.96% in Q1 2025, indicating relative stability [12]. - The CSI A100 Index showed a ROE of 10.48% in 2024, down 7.92% from 2023, but the decline rate slowed in Q1 2025 to 2.62% [12]. - The CSI A500 Index, representing a broader market, had a ROE of 9.82% in 2024, with a further decline to 2.51% in Q1 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges for mid-sized companies [12]. Group 4: Mid and Small Cap Indices - The CSI 300 Index, a core broad-based index, reported a ROE of 10.09% in 2024, down 1.37% year-on-year, with a further decline to 2.58% in Q1 2025, indicating stabilization among large enterprises [15]. - The CSI 500 Index, representing mid-cap companies, saw a significant drop in ROE to 6.02% in 2024, down 17.34%, but showed signs of recovery with a 5.29% increase in Q1 2025 [15]. - The CSI 1000 Index, which tracks small-cap companies, had a ROE of 4.88% in 2024, down 7.04%, but improved to 1.59% in Q1 2025, suggesting a potential bottoming out [16]. Group 5: Innovation and Growth Indices - The ChiNext Index, representing innovative enterprises, had a ROE of 12.48% in 2024, down from previous years, but began to recover in Q1 2025 with a ROE increase [19]. - The Sci-Tech 50 Index, which tracks technology-focused companies, reported a ROE of only 4.34% in 2024, a significant decline of 43.42%, and further dropped to 0.30% in Q1 2025, indicating severe challenges in the tech sector [21][22]. Group 6: Summary - Overall, 2024 was a challenging year for A-share indices, with a general decline in ROE across major indices, particularly in the CSI 2000, Sci-Tech 50, and ChiNext 200, which experienced the steepest declines [23]. - However, signs of recovery were noted in early 2025, particularly among growth-oriented indices like the ChiNext and Shenzhen 100, suggesting a potential turnaround for growth companies [23].

以下文章来源于围棋投研 ，作者伟琪 围棋投研 . 业内人士，重点覆盖高端制造 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 围棋投研 来源：雪球 经常聊白马股 ， 诚然龙头企业能够一定程度上代表着产业趋势 ， 但终究不是全貌 ， 今年已经 一个季度过去了 ， 还是很有必要知道下新能源板块的最新情况 。 截至目前 ， 我还没看到券商小伙伴的详细报告 ， 没有关系 ， 咱们自己先尝试着做个总结 ， 假期里把新能源各条赛道都做了梳理 ， 今晚就分享给球友们 。 具体观察角度有三个 ： 01 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 25年一季度 | ┣季度 去年同期 | | 25年一季度 | ┣季度 去年同期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛利率 | 毛利率 | 毛利率 | 净利率 | 净利率 | 净利率 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | 24.4 | 15.0 | 26.4 | 17.5 | 14.8 | 14.0 | | 300014.SZ | 亿纬锂能 | 17.2 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of value investing lies in assessing the intrinsic value of a company relative to its market price, emphasizing a significant margin of safety in investment decisions [2][4]. Group 1: Value Investing Principles - Value investing requires viewing stocks as parts of businesses and providing an absolute valuation, which distinguishes it from index investing [2]. - The concept of safety margin is crucial, where an investor must determine the intrinsic value of a stock before making a purchase [7]. Group 2: Dividend Investing - Dividend investing can evolve into value investing if the dividend yield significantly exceeds government bond rates, focusing on income rather than outperforming the market [4]. - The Gordon dividend model can be applied to perpetual dividend portfolios to assess their value [5]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The long-term average annual return of the CSI 300 is approximately 10%, which sets a benchmark for evaluating dividend growth rates [6]. - If the goal is not to outperform the market, a lower discount rate can be applied, making it easier to achieve reasonable growth expectations [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Safety Margin - Clear valuation is essential for determining safety margins, with examples illustrating the need for significant discounts to intrinsic value when investing in high-profile stocks like Moutai [7]. - A rough estimate of intrinsic value should be established, with a target of purchasing at a significant discount, ideally below 50% of the estimated value [7]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Snowball Three-Factor Method promotes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve diversified returns and risk mitigation [8].

市场早盘高开后震荡回落，三大指数小幅上涨。沪深两市半日成交额9658亿，较上个交易日放量1165亿。 板块方面，军工、脑机接口、房地产、化学原料等板块涨幅居前，影视、游戏、英伟达概念、生物制品等板块跌幅居前 值得关注的是，近期港元汇率多次触发强 方兑换保证，截至5月6日， 香港金管局累计注资达1166.14亿港元，随着港币的汇率抬升，港股资产也会 走强。 近日热度较高的恒生科技 指数 ETF （513180）交投高度活跃； 作为恒生科技赛道中规模最大的ETF，盘中成交额超越跟踪同指数的其余 ETF。截至5月6日，该ETF标的指数近1年累计涨幅高达30.73%，近3年年化波动率超40%。 01 降准降息来了！一揽子十大金融政策支持 1、降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，降准后，整体存款准备金率平均水平将从原来的6.6%降低到 6.2%。 2、降低政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开市场七天期逆回购利率从目前的1.5%降至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)同步下行约0.1个百分 点。 上午盘面上热点快速轮动，个股涨多跌少，全市场超3400只个股上涨。 3、下调结构性货币政 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 那么，股债平衡究竟是如何作用于我们的投资心理，帮助我们获得掌控感的呢？ 理解控制感：投资中的心理定海神针 在深入探讨股债平衡的心理效应之前，我们首先需要理解一个核心的心理学概念——"控制感" (Sense of Control)。 简单来说，控制感是指个体相信自己有能力影响周遭环境或自身状态的一种主观感觉或信念。这 种感觉对我们的情绪稳定、认知功能乃至整体幸福感都至关重要。缺乏控制感，往往会让人感到 焦虑、压抑，甚至导致习得性无助。 作者： 张翼轸 来源：雪球 今天，我想和大家再聊聊股债组合的动态平衡——一个在 EarlETF 上聊过许多次的话题。 这次，我们换一个视角，不再仅仅聚焦于它如何可能带来超额收益，或是实现所谓的"无限弹药 流"，而是从一个更深层次、或许对我们普通投资者更具现实意义的角度来审视它：投资心理学。 我们将一起探索，股债平衡策略，尤其是其动态调整机制，如何在波涛汹涌的市场中，帮助我们 找回那份宝贵的"控制感"，从而摆脱被市场情绪牵着鼻子走的困境。 相信许多投资者都曾有过这样的经历：面对市场的急剧下跌，自己 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett expresses a long-term commitment to investing in Japanese trading companies, aiming to hold their stocks for at least 50 years, regardless of short-term market fluctuations [1][2] Investment Decision and Sentiment - Buffett's interest in Japan's five major trading companies began six years ago when their stock prices were perceived as undervalued. He appreciates their strong operational history and the unique cultural aspects of these companies [1] - The performance of major companies like Apple, American Express, and Coca-Cola in Japan further reinforces Buffett's positive sentiment towards Japanese enterprises [1] Investment Situation - As of the end of 2024, Berkshire Hathaway's total investment in Japan's five major trading companies amounted to $13.8 billion, with a market value of $23.5 billion. Expected dividend income from these investments in 2025 is approximately $812 million, while interest costs on yen-denominated debt are around $135 million [1] - Berkshire has invested about $20 billion in the Japanese market, with aspirations to increase this to $100 billion [1] Market Valuation Insights - The current valuation metrics for the Nikkei 225 index indicate a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.52, placing it in the 34.82 percentile, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.74, in the 46.17 percentile. The dividend yield stands at 1.94%, in the 70.30 percentile, suggesting that the index is not overly expensive [2] Fund Investment Options - Several QDII passive index funds are available for investing in Japan, managed by companies such as Huaxia Fund, ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, and E Fund. The largest fund by scale is the Nikkei 225 ETF [4][5] Economic and Market Dynamics - Japan's economic recovery is supported by rising wages, with a 5.28% increase in the latest salary negotiations, which is expected to bolster domestic inflation [7][21] - The Bank of Japan's decision to abandon negative interest rates marks a significant step towards normalizing monetary policy, although the market remains cautious about potential risks [8][21] - The Japanese stock market is anticipated to benefit from ongoing governance reforms and increased shareholder returns, including stock buybacks [22][23] Short-term and Long-term Factors - Key short-term factors to monitor include actual wage growth, adjustments in corporate earnings guidance, and the progress of governance reforms [22] - Long-term factors supporting the Japanese stock market include the end of deflation, rising global investor interest, and ongoing corporate governance improvements [21][22]

节后首个交易日，A股全线大涨。 沪指涨1%重回3300点，创指收涨近2%。个股呈普涨态势，上涨个股超4900只。截至收盘，沪指报3316.11点，涨1.13%；深成指报10082.34点，涨 1.84%；创指报1986.41点，涨1.97%。 盘面上，金属新材料、可控核聚变、稀土永磁板块涨幅居前，银行板块跌幅居前。 沪深两市成交额达到13362亿，较上个交易日放量1668亿。 01 今日缘何大涨 今日大涨原因在哪？简单来说是多重利好共振：人民币升值吸引外资、贸易摩擦缓和、消费数据验证内需韧性。 | 沪深已收盘 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 创业板指 | | 3316.11 | 10082.34 | 1986.41 | | +1.13% | +1.84% | +1.97% | 5月5日，离岸人民币对美元汇率持续走高，盘中升穿7.19关口，一度上涨超200基点，最高升值至7.189，为2024年11月以来首次。 有研究员表示，近期离岸人民币对美元持续走高的原因主要在于降息预期升温，美元指数下探。同时，中美关税战缓和的信号释放，激活了市场的 乐观情绪。政治局会议 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 巴菲特股东大会之后，被传得最多一句竟然是： 我之所以赚了这么多钱，是因为我们"永不满仓"。 很多大媒体也在发这句话，但我看完就很疑惑，觉得这不像老巴说的话啊。 看到英文原文我明白了，这是翻译错了。 甚至我以最恶意的猜测来看，可能是为了流量，故意翻译错的。 作者： 大唐炼金师 来源：雪球 老巴的英文原文是：And we have made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested at all times. 晕，不追求什么时候都满仓，跟"永不满仓"能一样吗？ 这句话的意思是，我们恰恰是因为不强求"永远满仓"，才赚到了不少钱。 巴菲特是在比较投资机会，而不是为了不满仓而故意持有现金，持有现金是过程，而不是目的。 投资的目的是了持有未来回报更高的资产，这里的回报甚至都不是股价涨幅，而是持有未来能带来的现金流 多的资产，一定要搞清楚这点。 这句话出自2025年股东大会的第三个问答，我们也一起来看看全部的翻译吧。 股东问： 伯克希尔持有超过3000亿美元的现金与短期投资，占总 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：坚信价值 来源：雪球 不出所料 ， 今天新闻的标题都在说伯克希尔的现金储量 （ 包括现金和短债 ） 创历史新高 。 然而 ， 正如之前解释过的 ： （ 1 ） 对于一家1.1万亿美元规模的公司来说 ， " 千亿 " 不一定是惊人数字 ， 要看比例才有 意义 。 （ 2 ） 巴菲特的弹药 ， 除了现金还有国债 ， 而且不止是短债 。 过去十几年 ， 现金和短债的比例上升 ， 主要来自于降低对长债的配置 ， 而不是挤压了对权益 资产的配置 。 固收比例的上升 ， 是最近一年多才发生的 。 （ 3 ） 非上市的权益资产 ， 已经成为他权益资产的主体 。 光看对苹果的减持或者上市股票持 仓市值的下降 ， 并不全面 。 （ 4 ） 从过去的历史看 ， 伯克希尔的超额回报主要来自于长期持有高质量公司+1.7倍左右的杠 杠 。 虽然倾向于个股便宜时买入 ， 但是对市场总体进行 " 择时 " ， 并看不出来有刻意为之 。 见下图 ， 我整理了过去三十年伯克希尔固收资产占会计净资产的比例变化情况 （ 数据点为年底 固收资产包括长债+短债 ...