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对黄金的最新看法,还能上车吗?
雪球· 2025-05-05 06:49
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and outlook of gold-related funds, emphasizing the potential for gold as a long-term investment due to macroeconomic uncertainties and central bank purchasing trends [1][4]. Fund Overview - There are 36 gold-related funds in the market, with 19 remaining after filtering for RMB A-class shares [1][2]. - The funds are ranked by their combined scale, management fees, and custody fees, with some funds having lower fees, such as those from Huaxia and ICBC, which have a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [2][3]. Fund Manager Insights - **Huaan Fund (Xu Zhiyan)**: Optimistic about gold's long-term value due to ongoing monetary easing and central bank purchases, with gold prices rising significantly in early 2025 [6][9][13]. - **Bosera Fund (Zhao Yunyang)**: Highlights the continued purchasing power of central banks and the potential for market adjustments due to U.S. debt ceiling issues, maintaining a positive outlook on gold [19][21][22]. - **E Fund (Bao Jie)**: Notes that gold prices are influenced by U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on the changing pricing framework for gold [32][34][35]. - **Guotai Fund (Ai Xiaojun)**: Emphasizes the importance of central bank purchases and geopolitical risks in supporting gold prices, while acknowledging potential risks from U.S. dollar fluctuations [39][40][41]. - **Hua Xia Fund (Rong Ying)**: Continues to see gold as a valuable asset, driven by central bank demand and geopolitical tensions, with a strong performance in early 2025 [49][51]. - **ICBC Credit Suisse Fund (Zhao Xu)**: Points out the influence of U.S. monetary policy and global uncertainties on gold prices, with a focus on the ongoing central bank purchases [53]. - **Jianxin Fund (Zhu Jinyu)**: Believes that U.S. inflation trends and geopolitical uncertainties will support gold prices, with a positive outlook for 2025 [55]. - **Noan Fund (Song Qing)**: Maintains a positive view on gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions, with a significant increase in gold prices in early 2025 [57][59]. - **Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund (Liang Pusen)**: Discusses the impact of U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical risks on gold prices, emphasizing the importance of gold in asset allocation [63][64]. Market Trends - Gold prices have shown strong performance, with a significant increase in early 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors and central bank purchases [13][14][22][78]. - The article highlights the ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold, with 2024 seeing over 1000 tons of net purchases, maintaining high demand for gold as a long-term value storage tool [15][60]. - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are expected to continue supporting gold as a safe-haven asset, with potential for further price increases [27][39][70].
别人的成见是财富之源
雪球· 2025-05-05 06:49
有人问我买老窖的初心 , 我做了回答 。 后来想了想 , 其实当初还是看中老窖独一无二的生意 , 可以产生源源不断的现金流 。 低价和70%分红只是这份生意的附属品 。 股价大涨时是这个 原因 , 股价大跌时依旧是这个原因 , 是为不忘初心 。 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者:酒金岁月 来源:雪球 主账户长电和移动也是同样的理由 , 只有基本面变坏的情况下才考虑卖出 。 在这样的背景下 , 只有股息是唯一收益 , 股价涨跌丝毫不影响 。 这里没有差价收入 , 也不考虑差价收入 , 就是纯粹的价值投资 , 差价的事情交给小账户处理 。 美股市场优秀企业已经充分定价 , 股价大跌是机会完全是常识 , 巴菲特本特都占不到太多便宜 , 何况是我们这种普通人 。 A股市场不需要你优秀 , 只需要你合格 , 有正常认知就可以了 , 这是A股流动性溢价来源 。 在这样的市场 , 你可以依靠常识和逻辑降维打击 , 想亏钱都难 。 别人的恐惧和成见其实就是你超额财富的来源 , 让他们继续保持这种状态才能让你利益最大化 , 天天怼人是傻子才干的事情 , 万一把人怼明白了 ...
突发!离岸人民币暴涨!一度突破7.2重要关口,发生了什么?股民:外资疯狂涌入,利好港股和A股
雪球· 2025-05-05 06:49
5月5日,离岸人民币兑美元一度升穿7.20关口,为去年11月以来首次, 两个交易日最大涨幅接 近900点。A50表现也比较活跃,近两个交易日涨超1%。 此外, 随着离岸人民币走强,港股在节日期间也表现强势,香港恒生指数在5月2日反弹1.74% 报22504.68点。并且时隔五年, 香港金融管理局 从市场买入美元、沽出总值465.39亿港元来 维持汇率稳定。 雪球App用户@ 玄灵仙门 :说明外资疯狂涌入避险了,利好港股和A股,港元都不够用了,说明 外资疯狂流入。 一起来看最新情况。 01 人民币大涨,到底发生了什么? 贝森特: 美联储应该降息了 海外机构"抢跑"降息交易 当地时间周五公布的非农就业数据强劲,让高盛和巴克莱两大金融机构做出预期:美联储下次降 息可能至少要等到7月。 但市场依然认为,美联储年内降息次数仍将达到3~4次。市场分析认为, 就业增长速度,以及周 四公布的制造业报告不像预期那样悲观,这促使交易员减少了降息预期。此前,由于特朗普的贸 易战在金融市场引发混乱,引发了对美国经济衰退的担忧,降息预期不断升温。 美国财政部部长贝森特也向媒体表示:"我们看到两年期美债收益率现在低于联邦基金利率。所 以 ...
招、平、兴Q1财报对比,谁在进步谁退步了?
雪球· 2025-05-04 04:04
Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the Q1 performance of three banks (China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, and Industrial Bank) from five perspectives: asset quality, liability structure and interest rate, asset structure and yield, profitability, and valuation and margin of safety [1]. Asset Quality - The focus is primarily on loan quality, with detailed statistics provided for each bank's normal, attention, and non-performing loans [2][3][4][5]. - China Merchants Bank has a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%, while Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank have ratios of 1.06% and 1.08%, respectively, indicating that China Merchants Bank maintains better asset quality [3][4][6]. - The 90-day delinquency rate is lowest for Ping An Bank (0.68%), followed by China Merchants Bank (0.73%) and Industrial Bank (0.92%), suggesting that Ping An Bank has the most robust asset quality [8]. - The attention loan ratio is lowest for China Merchants Bank (1.36%), while Ping An Bank's ratio has decreased by 15 basis points, indicating an improvement in asset quality [9][10]. - The unified caliber non-performing loan ratio shows Ping An Bank at 1.35%, China Merchants Bank at 1.46%, and Industrial Bank at 1.83%, further confirming Ping An Bank's stronger asset quality [11]. Liability Structure and Interest Rate - China Merchants Bank has a significantly lower average interest rate on deposits (1.29%) compared to Ping An Bank (1.81%) and Industrial Bank (1.79%), indicating a substantial cost advantage [20][21][26]. - The total interest-bearing liabilities' interest rate for China Merchants Bank is also lower than that of its peers, reinforcing its competitive edge in funding costs [22][26]. Asset Structure and Yield - Ping An Bank's yield on interest-earning assets is 3.61%, which is higher than China Merchants Bank's 3.23% and Industrial Bank's 3.49%, indicating better asset yield management [33]. - The article notes that Ping An Bank's retail loan yield has shown positive growth, although the reasons remain unclear due to lack of disclosure from competitors [27][33]. Profitability - In Q1 2025, the net interest margin for Ping An Bank is 1.83%, China Merchants Bank is 1.91%, and Industrial Bank is 1.80%, with Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank benefiting from a faster decline in funding costs [37]. - The total assets and liabilities of Ping An Bank have not expanded significantly, but its deposit growth is strong, indicating a stable liability structure [35]. - China Merchants Bank shows synchronized growth in total assets and liabilities, reflecting a robust performance [36]. Valuation and Margin of Safety - The article does not provide specific details on valuation metrics or margin of safety for the banks, focusing instead on the operational performance indicators discussed above.
比直接抄底标普500确定性更强的策略
雪球· 2025-05-04 04:04
Core Viewpoint - The article suggests a strategy of shorting the VIX index as a more certain approach to capitalizing on market downturns, rather than directly buying into the S&P 500, especially when the latter's valuation has not fully bottomed out [2][4]. VIX Index Overview - The VIX index measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days and is often referred to as the "fear index," serving as a gauge of market sentiment [3]. - Historically, regardless of significant risk events, the VIX index tends to stabilize at an average level after spikes, indicating a potential strategy of shorting the VIX at high levels and buying back at lower levels [3][4]. Strategy Comparison - Shorting the VIX focuses on "shorting market sentiment," requiring only a return to normal market conditions for profit, which is less complex than predicting stock price movements when directly buying the index [4]. - Directly buying the index requires a low valuation entry point, but markets may not wait for a complete downturn before rebounding, leading to missed opportunities [5]. Backtesting Results - The article presents backtesting results for various shorting strategies based on VIX levels, indicating that shorting above 30 and covering below 12 yields significant returns, albeit with long holding periods that can reduce annualized returns [12][11]. - A more relaxed strategy of shorting above 30 and covering below 20 shows quicker recovery opportunities, with some trades yielding 30%-40% returns in a short time frame [13][14]. Risk and Considerations - The strategy's risks include the potential for infinite losses if the VIX spikes unexpectedly, as it is not tied to a tangible asset like stocks [22]. - Costs associated with shorting the VIX through derivatives can introduce discrepancies in expected outcomes, particularly during volatile market conditions [22]. Summary of Strategy Characteristics - The strategy is characterized by strong certainty, relying on the recovery of market sentiment over time, with the potential for significant short-term gains [23]. - It is advisable to prepare for short-term losses and to exit positions when the VIX stabilizes around 25, as holding beyond this point may not be cost-effective [23].
从估值和股息率看股票回报率启示
雪球· 2025-05-04 04:04
Group 1: Hikvision - Hikvision's stock returns over the past 4, 6, and 8 years are -42%, -4%, and -16% respectively, despite net profits increasing from 3.1 billion in 2013 to a peak of 16.8 billion in 2021, then declining to 12.8 billion in 2022 and projected at 12 billion in 2024 [2][6] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Hikvision over the past 8 years is 27.2 times, with a low dividend yield of 2.0% [7][6] - The stock price at the end of 2017 was 39.0 yuan with a P/E ratio of 38 times, leading to a significant loss if held until now [4][7] Group 2: Sinopec - Sinopec's net profit has fluctuated, with an average of 56.8 billion over the past 8 years, and only the stock price at the end of 2024 is expected to yield negative returns [12][11] - The average P/E ratio for Sinopec over the past 8 years is 11.4 times, with an average dividend yield of 7.2% [12][11] - Despite being perceived as a low-growth company, Sinopec has provided positive returns in 7 out of the last 8 years, with a cumulative dividend yield of 47.1% [12][11] Group 3: CNOOC - CNOOC's net profit increased from 24.7 billion in 2017 to 137.9 billion in 2024, with an average net profit of 79.6 billion over the past 8 years [16][14] - The average P/E ratio for CNOOC over the past 8 years is 8.0 times, with an average dividend yield of 9.1% [16][14] - CNOOC has shown strong returns, with a stock price increase of 169% from 11.22 HKD in 2017 to 16.76 HKD in 2025, despite experiencing negative returns only in 2024 [13][14] Group 4: Market Comparison - The Hang Seng Index has decreased by 26% from the end of 2017 to April 2025, while the A-share market has only seen a 1% decline [25][26] - Stocks perceived as high-quality, such as Hikvision, have resulted in losses, while lower-growth stocks like Sinopec have yielded positive returns [25][26] - CNOOC's performance has been significantly better than that of Hikvision and Sinopec, demonstrating the importance of valuation and dividend yield in investment returns [25][26]
巴菲特Q1也亏了!计划年底退休,接班人公布!巴菲特股东大会要点:贸易非武器、AI、现金储备、还说美股波动“不值一提”
雪球· 2025-05-04 04:04
当地时间5月3日,一年一度的投资界"春晚"——伯克希尔・哈撒韦股东大会在美国奥马哈市举 行。 1.97 万名股东涌入现场,数百万人同步收看直播。 在今年的股东大会上,巴菲特屡次就特朗普政府的政策与财政问题表达担忧,明确强调贸易不应 作为武器。此外,他还针对伯克希尔的巨额现金储备,以及近期美股市场波动、海外投资、人生 哲学、AI、自动驾驶、保险业务等一系列话题发表见解。 令全球投资者感到意外的是,巴菲特在股东大会最后宣布,他已经决定将在周日的董事会上,提 议在年底前正式将伯克希尔CEO职务交给接班人格雷格·阿贝尔。 01 精华划重点 1、谈接班人: 阿贝尔在各方面都做好了担任伯克希尔哈CEO的准备;将建议董事会在年底前任 命阿贝尔为公司CEO。 2、谈关税问题: 美国应该寻求与世界其他国家进行贸易,贸易不应该被当成武器。 3、谈美国财政政策: 美国的财政问题令我害怕,但这也不是美国独有的问题。 4、谈美股大幅波动: 与历史上的大崩盘相比,过去几十天的下跌根本不算什么。 5、谈人工智能: 我不会把所有的东西绕着AI进行投资和发展;如果AI里面有选择的话,应该让 (伯克希尔副董事长)阿吉特·贾恩来选择。 6、谈日本 ...
中国资产暴力反弹!港股抢跑,恒科涨超3%!中概股接力连夜大涨!标普9连阳,创2004年以来最长连涨纪录!后市多家机构乐观谨慎!
雪球· 2025-05-03 02:28
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 achieving its longest winning streak in 20 years, driven by positive non-farm payroll data and a rebound in Chinese assets [1][3][11]. Economic Data - The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, significantly exceeding the expected 138,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. This data is interpreted as a signal of "economic soft landing," alleviating concerns over GDP contraction [3]. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 rose by 1.47%, marking its ninth consecutive day of gains, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also recorded similar increases of 1.39% and 1.51%, respectively [3]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 3.5%, with notable gains in Chinese stocks such as Century Internet (+13%), XPeng Motors (+5%), and Alibaba (+4%) [11]. Sector Performance - The performance of the "Big Seven" tech stocks was mixed, with Meta rising by 4.34% due to advancements in AI and recovering ad revenues, while Apple fell by 3.74% after disappointing earnings [6][8]. Trade Relations - Recent developments indicate a potential easing of trade tensions, with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce noting ongoing negotiations with the U.S. regarding tariff issues. This has positively impacted both U.S. and Chinese markets [15]. Investment Outlook - Analysts express a cautiously optimistic view on the global market, highlighting potential sector rotations and the attractiveness of Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs raised its target price for the MSCI China Index by 15%, citing unexpected government growth policies and signs of corporate profit recovery [18]. - Various institutions suggest a diversified investment approach to manage risks and capture opportunities, especially in light of anticipated market volatility in 2025 [21][22].
2025年一季报收官:34家上市银行股市赚率估值总览!
雪球· 2025-05-03 02:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of various banking sectors in China, highlighting that the six major banks and rural commercial banks are generally overvalued, while joint-stock banks and city commercial banks are seen as undervalued [2][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation - The "Market Earnings Ratio" (市赚率) is introduced as a valuation parameter, calculated as Market Price to Earnings Ratio (PE) divided by Return on Equity (ROE), with a specific formula: PR = PE / (ROE / 100) [2][3]. - The average valuation of the six major banks' A-shares has reached above 1.0 PR, indicating overvaluation, while their H-shares average above 0.8 PR [4][5]. - The Postal Savings Bank is noted as the least favored among the six major banks, with a valuation below 1.0 PR in the A-share market [4]. Group 2: Joint-Stock Banks - Joint-stock banks are not generally overvalued, with an average A-share valuation of over 0.9 PR and H-share valuation at 0.8 PR [5][6]. - The disparity in valuation between A-shares and H-shares is highlighted, with examples such as China Merchants Bank showing stronger performance in H-shares compared to A-shares [5]. Group 3: City Commercial Banks - City commercial banks are identified as undervalued, with average A-share valuations around 0.8 PR, and specific banks like Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank noted as significant value opportunities with valuations of 0.65 PR [7][8]. Group 4: Rural Commercial Banks - The article suggests that rural commercial banks are not as clear-cut in terms of valuation, as they are generally seen as growth banks with lower dividend payout ratios, leading to higher correction coefficients [9][10]. - Only one rural commercial bank, Changshu Bank, is noted to have a valuation below 0.4 PR, indicating limited undervaluation compared to city commercial banks [9][10]. Group 5: Growth Banks - Four banks are identified as growth stocks with improving ROE: Hangzhou Bank, Qilu Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Changshu Bank [11][12]. - The article emphasizes that the valuation of these growth banks may not reflect their potential due to their lower dividend payout ratios [11][12]. Group 6: Market Environment - The article discusses the impact of a low-interest environment on stock valuations, suggesting that while valuations should theoretically rise, the relationship is not strictly inverse [12]. - It is recommended that banks with high valuations should be sold as they rise, particularly in the A-share market above 1.0 PR and H-share market above 0.8 PR [12].
家电三巨头2025年一季度,哪家最优秀?
雪球· 2025-05-03 02:28
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者:KAIZEN投资之道 ( 3 ) 市场表现 : 格力电器在空调领域的市场份额较高 , 品牌影响力大 , 具有较强的竞争 优势 。 不过 , 其业务相对单一 , 对空调业务的依赖度较高 , 一定程度上影响了公司的抗风 险能力 。 2025年一季度 , 家电三巨头 ( 美的集团 、 格力电器 、 海尔智家 ) 在全球贸易波动与消费分 化的背景下 , 呈现出差异化的增长路径 。 美的凭借多元化业务和全球化布局实现高速增长 , 格力依托政策红利与成本优化稳中求进 , 海尔则通过高端化与智能生态持续突破 。 以下是一季 度业绩报告的详细分析以及后市投资价值的对比 : 三 、 海尔智家 一 、 美的集团 ( 1 ) 营收与利润 : 2025 年一季度营业收入为 1284亿元 , 同比增长 20.61% ; 归母净利 润为 124.22 亿元 , 同比增长 38.02% ; 扣非归母净利润为 127.50 亿元 , 同比增长 38.03% 。 ( 2 ) 业务分析 : 各项业务稳步推进 , 在机器人与自动化业务领域 , 2024 年 ...