Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that younger investors should avoid competing in the same investment arena as older investors, particularly in traditional sectors, and instead focus on emerging industries that older investors may not understand [2][3][9]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Older investors, referred to as "老登," have benefited from previous market trends, particularly in sectors like liquor and consumer goods, but may miss out on new technology trends [2][3]. - Younger investors should seek opportunities in industries that are not yet recognized by older investors, as this could provide a chance for significant returns [3][9]. Group 2: Case Study of Kweichow Moutai - Kweichow Moutai's stock price increased from approximately 4 yuan at its IPO in 2001 to a peak of around 2342 yuan in 2021, representing a growth of over 580 times [4]. - The company's revenue grew from 1.618 billion yuan in 2001 to 109.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of about 68 times [6][7]. - To replicate its past success, Kweichow Moutai would need to achieve a revenue of approximately 11.8 trillion yuan in 20 years, which is nearly 15 times the current size of the entire liquor industry [8]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investing in traditional industry leaders like Kweichow Moutai may only be suitable for those with substantial capital, as the potential for high returns diminishes for smaller investors [8][9]. - The article suggests that younger investors would be better off focusing on their careers rather than spending time in the stock market, as the opportunity cost may be higher [9].

以下文章来源于我画你财 ，作者我画你财 我画你财 . 告别枯燥理论，看图学习理财。 司美所在的创新药行业，这两年大家在投资的时候一定常常听到。 但这个行业涉及太多医学专业领域认知，可能不少人还是一头雾水。 到底 创新药是个什么东东 呢 ？这篇 帮 你快速了解！ 首先，先明确一个概念：创新药≠刚上市的新药，而是从 0 到 1 治之前治不了的病。 那是说创新药专门治疗大病、罕见病吗？ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 最近要是某个明星瘦了，大家的第一反应都是： 司美格鲁肽，8年前由一个丹麦药企推出，最初是专门帮糖尿病患者控制血糖的。 2023年被马斯克意外带火，成了全网热议的 "减肥神药"。 大部分是，因为常见病已经有便宜的传统药了，没必要再去研究，特定疾病尤其是那些不好治的 疑难杂症，才是创新药的主要攻克对象。 更特别的是，创新药是精准找到病因——靶点，然后对靶点进行治疗；传统药则不锁定靶点，直 接缓解症状。 还是司美举例，我们看看它在2型糖尿病人身体里是怎么工作的，明白创新药的厉害。 2型糖尿病形成的主要原因是GLP-1激素异常。 传统药的解法是：直接对多余血糖下手。 比如通过吃药的方式，来减少葡萄糖生成 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 周末的市场休息，本来还是很平淡，但这周末，特朗普又带来了王炸消息！ 01 辟谣！摩尔线程上市！ 先看一下周五大家比较关注的科技板块的一个小作文，周五科技板块，半导体，芯片，算力出现了调整，冲高回落，而且收盘时跌幅也是比较大 的。 在周五盘中传出了一则小作文的消息：25号摩尔线程在交易所的状态为"暂缓审核"，上市被卡。也是周五芯片半导体板块下跌的一个原因。 但在昨天，就被马上辟谣，上海证券交易所上市委审议通过了摩尔线程智能科技（北京）股份有限公司的首发申请。从6月30日上市申请获受理到 成功过会，摩尔线程仅用时88天，创下科创板审核周期的最快纪录。 此次IPO， 摩尔线程计划募资80亿元人民币，是年内A股过会项目中募资规模最大的项目，同时也是年内半导体领域最大规模的IPO。 02 又要开战？ 再来看看这个周末的重磅消息，周末市场休息，但是特朗普不休。来看一下周末这两天关于特朗普的消息。 据美煤日报道，4名消息人士透露， 美国军方官员正在制定针对委内瑞拉境内"贩毒分子"的行动方案，并可能在几周内开始对该国境内目标的打 击。 值得一提的是， 委内瑞拉 是世界重要石油生产与出口国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified, long-term investment strategy, particularly through a "permanent investment strategy" that balances various asset classes to achieve stable returns while minimizing risk [4][5][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author advocates for a global multi-asset allocation approach, suggesting that investors should not overly concentrate on high-valuation sectors [4][5]. - A sample permanent investment portfolio is proposed, consisting of 12.5% in Nasdaq 100, 12.5% in S&P 500, 25% in gold, 25% in Chinese bonds, and 25% in U.S. bonds [6][12]. - Historical backtesting of this strategy shows a three-year return of 70.74%, outperforming the CSI 300's 18.41% and slightly lagging behind the S&P 500's 83.51% [9][12]. Group 2: Risk and Performance Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the permanent strategy is reported at 9.19%, significantly lower than the CSI 300's 24.8% and the S&P 500's 18.62% [9][12]. - The Sharpe ratio for the permanent strategy is calculated at 0.12, compared to 0.02 for the CSI 300 and 0.08 for the S&P 500, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [9][12]. - The strategy's positive return days are at 55.14%, slightly higher than the CSI 300's 49%, suggesting that while the strategy does not yield daily profits, it benefits from lower volatility [9][12]. Group 3: Long-term Performance - Over five years, the permanent strategy achieved a return of 79.1%, while the CSI 300 only returned 0.07% and the S&P 500 returned 115.36% [13]. - The article notes that rebalancing the portfolio over five years resulted in a decrease in performance from 76.3% to 66.6%, attributed to the strong upward trends in U.S. stocks and gold [17]. - The author argues that long-term rebalancing can enhance returns during market downturns by locking in profits and allowing for reinvestment at lower prices [17]. Group 4: Asset Correlation - The correlation between S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is very high at 0.97, indicating limited diversification benefits between these two assets [20]. - In contrast, the correlation between S&P 500 and gold is only 0.01, and between S&P 500 and U.S. bonds is 0.09, highlighting the importance of including low-correlation assets in a diversified portfolio [20]. - The article suggests that the current market is heavily concentrated in large-cap tech stocks, which may pose risks if the broader economy weakens [21].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a bull phase, with significant increases in various indices over the past year, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks with technology attributes [3]. Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector, especially the liquor segment represented by Kweichow Moutai, has undergone over four years of adjustment [4]. - The liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations that the bottom is near [5]. - Other companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Haitian Flavoring and Food, Shuanghui Development, Yili Industrial, Qingdao Beer, Anjixin Food, and COFCO, have not yet capitalized on the bull market [6]. - Despite the lack of stock price increases, many companies in this sector have seen profit growth over the years [7]. Valuation Insights - The stagnation in stock prices is attributed to the overextension of valuations and expectations during the bull market from 2018 to 2021 [8]. - After three to four years of valuation digestion, the food and beverage industry is currently considered undervalued from a price-to-earnings (PE) perspective [9]. - Historical data shows that the current price levels are situated between one and two times below the average PE ratio, similar to the situation in 2018 [10]. Economic Context - As of September 2023, real GDP has begun to exceed nominal GDP, indicating a state of deflation [11]. - Historical instances of similar economic conditions occurred during the Asian financial crisis in 1998-2000 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2009 [13]. - There is a strong belief that the economy will gradually improve, leading the food and beverage industry to return to reasonable valuation levels [13]. Investment Opportunities - The food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor segment, is expected to participate in the current bull market, albeit with a delay [13]. - This delay presents investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of patience in waiting for the right moment to invest and for prices to rise [14].

Group 1: US Tariff Policy Changes - The latest US tariff measures on pharmaceuticals will not apply to countries that have trade agreements with the US, such as the EU and Japan, which will continue to adhere to the agreed 15% tariff cap [2][5] - The UK, however, will face a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical exports to the US, as negotiations on drug-related tax rates are still ongoing [5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Data - Following the announcement of the tariff changes, the Asia-Pacific pharmaceutical stocks experienced declines, with companies like BeiGene down 4% and Sumitomo Pharma down over 3% [2] - On September 26, US stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and the S&P 500 up 0.59%, driven by inflation data that raised expectations for interest rate cuts [6][12] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September was reported at 55.1, slightly lower than the preliminary value, while the core PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [13] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced a significant rally, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.5% to $3789.8 per ounce and silver futures up 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce, marking a 14-year high for silver [15][16] - Over the past six months, silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 30%, outperforming most commodities, with a year-to-date rise of 59%, compared to gold's 43% [17] - The current gold-silver ratio indicates that silver is undervalued relative to historical averages, suggesting potential for price correction [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stock selection in private equity investment, detailing a structured four-step process for identifying and validating potential investment opportunities. Group 1: Stock Selection Process - The first step involves screening and project initiation, which can be approached from three perspectives: macroeconomic, industry-specific, and individual stock analysis [6][11][12]. - The article highlights the significance of industry analysis, suggesting that mature industries can be mapped into clear supply chains, which can be analyzed to identify promising companies [13][19]. - A reverse deduction method is recommended for stock selection, starting from the downstream of the supply chain and moving upwards to identify companies with strong bargaining power and profit certainty [17][21]. Group 2: Validation and Research - The second step focuses on validation and research, which is described as the most critical and complex phase. It involves qualitative and quantitative analyses [24][32]. - Qualitative research assesses the company's competitive advantages, including technology validation, customer dependency, and management credibility [26][28][30]. - Quantitative analysis emphasizes the importance of cash flow over reported profits, as well as scrutinizing the company's expenditures to ensure alignment with its strategic claims [32][34]. Group 3: Decision Making and Tracking - The third step involves decision-making and purchasing, where researchers present their findings to an investment committee for approval, often requiring detailed investment memorandums [39][43]. - The final step is tracking and reviewing the investment post-purchase, ensuring that the original investment thesis remains valid and adjusting positions as necessary [45]. Group 4: Investment Performance - The article concludes that successful stock selection by skilled private equity researchers can lead to significant excess returns, particularly in bullish market conditions [48].

Core Concept - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the "collaboration" between assets in investment allocation, which is mathematically represented by "correlation" [3][4]. Asset Allocation Principles - Ideal investment portfolios should consist of assets with varying correlations: assets with a correlation close to +1 move together, those with a correlation close to -1 move inversely, and those with a correlation close to 0 operate independently [4]. - The modern portfolio theory proposed by Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz suggests that scientific diversification can significantly reduce risk without sacrificing returns [4]. Mathematical Framework - For perfectly negatively correlated assets (correlation of -1), the allocation ratio should be inversely proportional to their volatility. If two funds have the same volatility, equal allocation is appropriate [5][7]. - If the volatilities differ, the allocation should favor the asset with lower volatility. For example, if Fund A has a volatility of 10% and Fund B has 30%, the optimal allocation would be 75% in Fund A and 25% in Fund B [7]. - For assets with a correlation close to 0, the allocation ratio should be inversely proportional to the square of their volatility. This allows for optimization of the risk-return profile even among uncorrelated assets [10][13]. Investment Insights - Including negatively correlated assets in a portfolio can effectively reduce overall volatility. While perfectly negatively correlated assets are rare, seeking low or negatively correlated assets remains a valid strategy for optimizing investment portfolios [9]. - The article illustrates that even with uncorrelated assets, appropriate weight allocation can enhance the risk-return ratio. For instance, a combination of five uncorrelated assets can reduce volatility significantly compared to individual assets [15]. Addressing Concerns about Returns - The article argues that proper asset allocation does not diminish returns; rather, it can stabilize and enhance them. The key is to select high-performing assets rather than diversifying for the sake of it [17]. - Examples provided include combining U.S. stocks with A-shares, both of which have long-term annualized returns of around 8-10%, resulting in a stable combined return while reducing volatility [17]. Practical Guidelines for Portfolio Construction - Step 1: Diversify across major asset classes such as stocks (high long-term returns, high volatility), bonds (stable returns, low volatility), and commodities (inflation hedge) [21]. - Step 2: Diversify by region and strategy, investing in various markets and styles to mitigate risks [21]. - Step 3: Regularly rebalance the portfolio to maintain the desired asset allocation, selling portions of assets that have appreciated significantly and buying those that have declined [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in industries, particularly in the solar energy sector, where increased competition leads to price wars and reduced profitability for companies, prompting the government to implement measures to counteract this trend [5][8][34]. Group 1: Industry Overview - China is the world's largest industrial nation, contributing $30 out of every $100 of industrial products globally [3]. - Despite the growth in industrial scale and product sales, many companies are operating at a loss due to intense competition and price reductions [5][20]. Group 2: Involution in the Solar Industry - The solar industry experienced a surge in demand due to global energy transition efforts, attracting numerous competitors, including over a hundred cross-industry entrants from 2022 to 2023 [10][17]. - The influx of competitors has led to severe product homogenization and intensified competition, resulting in price wars [20][22]. Group 3: Strategies of Dominant Players - Dominant players, referred to as "卷王" (involution kings), leverage their strong cash flow and lower production costs to outlast weaker competitors in the market [23][27]. - These dominant companies are willing to sustain short-term losses to gain market share and pricing power in the long run [29][30]. Group 4: Government Response - The Chinese government has recognized the risks posed by industrial involution, which threatens economic stability and employment, as the industrial sector accounts for over 30% of GDP [31][34]. - Starting from July of the previous year, the government has implemented various policies to combat involution, including production quotas in the solar industry to limit supply and stabilize prices [36][38]. Group 5: Market Impact - The solar sector has seen a price recovery and a significant increase in stock performance, with the sector rising over 17% this year, while the broader anti-involution index has increased by nearly 50% [43].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 午后跳水，三大指数震荡走跌，截至收盘， 沪指跌0.65% ， 深成指跌1.76% ， 创业板指跌2.60% 。 沪深两市成交额2.15万亿 ， 较上一个交易日缩量2242亿， 全市场超3400只个股下跌 。 板块方面 ， 风电 、 保险等板块涨幅居前 ， 游戏 、 算力硬件 、 光刻机等板块跌幅居前。 港股也走低，恒生指数跌超1%，恒生科技指数跌近3%，小米集团、金山云跌超7%等。 特朗普，突发重磅！ AI、半导体大跌 以AI为主线的科技股今天集体走弱，工业富联大跌5%，寒武纪跌超3%，立讯精密大跌超6%，瑞芯微、芯原股份、 领益智造、景旺电子等 跌超6 %。 9月26日午后，突然传来重磅消息。据路透社报道，消息人士称，特朗普政府正在考虑一项新的半导体政策，要求芯片公司在国内制造的半导体数 量与其客户从海外生产商进口的半导体数量相同，如果公司未能长期保持这种1:1的比例，将面临大约100%的关税。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克与半导体行业高管讨论了这一概念，理由是美国科技公司严重依赖海外芯片生产，容易受到多重因素影响，对经济 安全形成威胁。 知情人士表示，根据新制度，如果一家 ...