Core Insights - The article discusses Warren Buffett's decision to sell McDonald's shares in 1997, which later proved to be a significant mistake as McDonald's stock outperformed his other investments, including Coca-Cola [4][9][10]. Group 1: Reasons for Selling McDonald's - The first concern was the low customer loyalty in the food industry, with Buffett noting that consumers might choose competitors like Burger King when hungry, unlike the strong brand loyalty seen with products like Gillette [6]. - The second concern was the heavy capital expenditure associated with McDonald's business model, which required significant investment in real estate for franchising, contrasting with Buffett's preference for lighter asset companies like Coca-Cola [7]. - The third concern was the reliance on promotions, which Buffett believed weakened product strength. He preferred businesses that generated revenue based on product quality rather than discounts [8]. Group 2: Reflection on the Decision - Less than a year after selling, Buffett acknowledged the mistake, stating that selling McDonald's was a poor decision that cost Berkshire Hathaway significantly, estimating a loss of over ten billion dollars in potential earnings [9][10]. - The article highlights that McDonald's global presence, initially seen as a burden, actually created a competitive barrier and capitalized on the growing demand for fast food, especially in emerging markets [10]. - It emphasizes the importance of recognizing a company's adaptability and growth potential, as McDonald's successfully innovated its menu and reduced reliance on promotions over time [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The case illustrates that certainty in investment does not equate to growth potential, as the fast-food industry was still expanding in 1996, and McDonald's had significant room for growth that Buffett underestimated [11][12]. - Heavy asset investments can create long-term competitive advantages if they establish barriers that competitors cannot easily overcome, as seen with McDonald's extensive global network [12]. - The article concludes that investors should allow for industry growth and company adjustments over time, rather than focusing solely on short-term challenges [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market turbulence caused by sudden tariffs and rare earth events, emphasizing the need for investors to maintain a calm mindset and adhere to their strategies amidst external shocks [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index around 3900 points, compared to 3300 points earlier in the year, indicating a rise in market temperature from 30° to 60° [10][11]. - The article highlights that different valuation levels can lead to varying degrees of volatility when facing unexpected events, with high valuations potentially leading to more severe market impacts [23]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a steady approach, focusing on value and allowing time to mitigate short-term market fluctuations [13][14]. - A "portfolio check-up" is recommended, including assessing cash flow, ensuring it can cover 3-6 months of expenses, and maintaining a balanced position to withstand market storms [18][19]. - Adjusting the portfolio to enhance defensive positions is suggested, particularly by replacing high-risk assets with more stable investments like state-owned enterprises and high-dividend stocks [26][27]. Group 3: Tactical Adjustments - The article encourages investors to consider increasing exposure to growth sectors, such as technology and emerging markets, when market conditions improve, while maintaining a defensive framework [34]. - It emphasizes the importance of a balanced portfolio that includes both defensive and offensive assets, suggesting a typical allocation of 20%-30% for growth-oriented investments [34]. Group 4: Long-term Perspective - The article stresses that every market disruption is an opportunity for growth and strategy refinement, urging investors to remain adaptable and resilient [38][41]. - It concludes with the notion that investment should enhance life quality, advocating for a diversified approach to asset allocation to improve risk management [39][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current bullish market in Hong Kong and emphasizes the importance of learning from successful investors like Joel Greenblatt, particularly his "magic formula" for stock selection [3][4]. Group 1: Joel Greenblatt and Gotham Capital - Joel Greenblatt founded Gotham Capital in 1985, achieving an annualized return of 50% in the first ten years, compared to Warren Buffett's 25% during the same period [5]. - Over a 20-year period from 1985 to 2006, Gotham Capital maintained an impressive annualized compound return of 40% [5]. - Greenblatt's influence extends beyond his fund's performance; he established the Value Investors Club and teaches value investing at Columbia University [8][9]. Group 2: Efficient Market Hypothesis - The article critiques the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that all available information is reflected in stock prices, arguing that this does not align with reality [14][15]. - Greenblatt challenges the notion of market efficiency by demonstrating price volatility in stable companies, indicating that markets can be inefficient [16]. Group 3: The Magic Formula - Greenblatt's "magic formula" is a stock selection method that focuses on buying good companies at discounted prices, utilizing two main filters: earnings yield and return on invested capital (ROIC) [17][18]. - The first filter assesses company valuation through earnings yield, while the second filter identifies quality companies based on their ROIC [18][19]. - The process involves selecting companies with a minimum market capitalization of $50 million, excluding utility and financial stocks, and then applying the two filters to identify potential investments [19][20]. Group 4: Implementation and Data Selection - The implementation of the magic formula involves regularly buying a diversified portfolio of 20 to 30 stocks over a period of three to five years [21][22]. - Greenblatt emphasizes using last year's data for the magic formula, arguing that it provides reliable insights for selecting a basket of companies despite individual fluctuations [24][25]. Group 5: Longevity of the Strategy - The article notes that the magic formula may not work consistently every year, with periods of underperformance that can lead investors to abandon the strategy [26][27]. - Greenblatt asserts that the effectiveness of value investing relies on its inconsistency, which prevents it from being arbitraged away [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The private equity industry in China has seen a significant shift, with quantitative funds now surpassing subjective funds in number among the hundred billion-level private equity firms, marking a pivotal change in the investment landscape [2][6]. Group 1: Market Environment Changes - The market has transitioned from a "wild" era characterized by slow information dissemination and significant mispricing to a more civilized and efficient environment [8][15]. - In the past, the market was dominated by retail investors, leading to prolonged deviations of stock prices from their intrinsic values [10][12]. - The current market environment, influenced by technological advancements and macroeconomic changes, presents greater challenges for subjective fund managers, as mispricing opportunities have become shorter and more complex [17][20]. Group 2: Investment Products and Tools - The availability of investment products and tools has evolved from scarcity to abundance, with the introduction of stock index futures in 2010 marking a turning point for quantitative strategies [26][27]. - The diversification of trading products has led to the emergence of various innovative quantitative strategies, providing more profit opportunities [29][31]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Technological progress has played a crucial role in the rise of quantitative strategies, with the volume of data available for analysis significantly exceeding that of subjective approaches [33][35]. - Quantitative strategies benefit from faster execution and continuous improvements in computational power, enhancing their effectiveness compared to subjective strategies [37][39]. - The distinction between subjective and quantitative investment lies in their methodologies, with subjective investment relying on individual insight and quantitative investment relying on data and algorithms [39].

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62%, Shenzhen Component down 2.54%, and ChiNext down 3.99% [2] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 25,966 billion, an increase of 2,224 billion compared to the previous day [2] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market declined, indicating a significant market downturn [2] Sector Performance - Traditional sectors such as gas, insurance, liquor, coal, banking, port shipping, and photovoltaic equipment showed positive performance, while technology sectors like metals, semiconductors, and consumer electronics faced significant declines [2] Optical Module Sector - The optical module sector saw a substantial pullback, with companies like NewEase falling over 9%, Zhongji Xuchuang down over 8%, and Tianfu Communication down over 5% [4] - Major shareholders in the sector have been reducing their stakes, with NewEase's controlling shareholder selling 11.43 million shares for 3.749 billion at 328 yuan per share [8] - Despite the sell-off, the fundamental performance of optical module companies remains strong, driven by increased capital expenditures from clients like Nvidia, Google, and Amazon [8] - Inventory levels for Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase increased, while Tianfu Communication's inventory decreased slightly [9] - Gross margins varied, with Zhongji Xuchuang's margin increasing to 41.49%, while NewEase's margin decreased to 46.64% due to structural adjustments and rising raw material costs [9] - Analysts suggest that despite external trade tensions, the long-term industry trend remains intact, particularly in AI computing and cloud services [9] Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic equipment sector showed resilience, with companies like Longi Green Energy and Yijing Photovoltaic experiencing price surges [11] - Reports indicate that significant policy changes are expected in the photovoltaic industry, aimed at regulating production capacity [12] - Chinese photovoltaic companies are accelerating their overseas expansion, with cumulative overseas component order contracts exceeding 11.1 GW as of September 2025 [13] - Major companies like Longi Green Energy reported a revenue decline of approximately 14.83% in the first half of 2025, while losses narrowed significantly compared to the previous year [14] - Analysts believe that with improving industry prices and strong overseas demand, the photovoltaic sector is poised for a turnaround, making it a key area of focus [15] Port and Shipping Sector - The port and shipping sector saw gains, with companies like Nanjing Port hitting the daily limit up [17] - The Ministry of Transport announced a special port fee for certain U.S. vessels, which could lower domestic port costs and enhance competitiveness [20] - China's exports grew by 7.1% in the first three quarters, supporting increased port throughput [20] - Recent retaliatory measures against U.S. companies have raised concerns about potential trade disputes, impacting market sentiment [20]

Overall Introduction - The book introduces market rules, asset allocation logic, and strategies for different asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, while addressing practical issues faced by investors [4]. Core Views - The book proposes three dimensions to assess the market: policy, economy, and inflation, which are used to determine market conditions [7]. - Economic cycles are divided into six stages, each with corresponding asset preferences, ranging from bonds in the early slowdown to cash and commodities in the stagflation phase [11][12][13][39]. - Effective asset allocation strategies include the Permanent Portfolio, All Weather Portfolio, and Global Market Portfolio, emphasizing diversification and risk management [14][15][16]. Current Situation - Current policies are characterized as accommodative, with indicators such as M1 growth increasing from 0.39% in January to 5.96% in August [33]. - Economic recovery is weak, with industrial value-added growth declining from 7.7% to 5.2% [37]. - The market is likely in a transition between the late slowdown phase and the early recovery phase, suggesting a preference for small-cap growth stocks [39][40]. Investment Insights - Long-term asset allocation is crucial for sustained success, with diversified strategies proven to provide stable returns [44]. - A balanced stock-bond allocation is suitable for most investors, allowing for flexibility in extreme market conditions [45]. - Simplifying investment approaches and focusing on fundamental market principles can lead to better outcomes [47][48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tensions between China and the U.S., particularly focusing on China's proactive measures in response to U.S. actions, especially regarding rare earth elements and high-end manufacturing capabilities [3][4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - The conflict has escalated since April, marking a shift from a honeymoon phase to increased hostilities, with both sides taking actions [3]. - China's upgraded countermeasures, particularly in the rare earth sector, have provoked a strong reaction from the U.S., indicating the effectiveness of these measures [4]. Group 2: Market Implications - The market is closely watching whether the current situation will lead to a "taco transaction," suggesting that the U.S. may continue its previous strategies [5]. - The emotional market downturn is seen as a reaction to earlier disruptions in supply chains, but there is potential for recovery, differing from previous events [5]. Group 3: Industry Developments - China appears to have made significant advancements in high-end manufacturing, including developments in lithography machines, indicating a shift towards domestic alternatives [5]. - U.S. strategies, such as imposing 100% tariffs and EDA software controls, are viewed as outdated tactics, while China is building a more self-sufficient industrial system [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The article suggests that the balance of power may be shifting, with China's global competitiveness improving and the U.S. having fewer options to exert pressure [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government's decision to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, which has led to significant market fluctuations in both U.S. and Chinese stock markets [2][18]. Group 1: Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw a significant increase, with stocks like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth hitting their daily limit up [5]. - The price of rare earth concentrate has been adjusted to 26,205 yuan/ton (excluding tax) for Q4 2025, reflecting a 37% increase compared to the previous quarter [7]. - Analysts predict that the rare earth industry will enter a new phase of high-quality development, with prices expected to stabilize and gradually increase due to seasonal demand [7][8]. Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - Wintime Technology's stock plummeted by 10% after the Dutch government imposed restrictions on its core semiconductor asset, Nexperia, affecting its operations and management [10][12]. - Nexperia contributed 14.715 billion yuan in revenue and 2.297 billion yuan in net profit in 2024, highlighting its importance to Wintime Technology [12]. - The Dutch government's actions are viewed as excessive intervention based on geopolitical biases, raising concerns about the treatment of Chinese enterprises [12][13]. Group 3: Domestic Software Sector - Domestic software stocks experienced a collective surge, with companies like Kingsoft Office and China Software seeing significant gains [17]. - The Ministry of Commerce's announcement regarding export controls on certain rare earth-related items has sparked discussions about the implications for domestic software development [17][20]. - Analysts believe that potential software export controls could create a golden opportunity for domestic software to replace foreign products, accelerating the self-sufficiency of China's software industry [20].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 以下文章来源于ETF大白 ，作者ETF大白 ETF大白 . 三句话： 1.宁愿不说，只说真话。 2.ETF将是大多数散户的终极归宿。 3.投ETF，做自己的基金经理。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： ETF大白 来源：雪球 大家好 ， 我是(●—●) 。 01 你的投资信条是什么 ？ 市场大跌 ， 引发了本白一个有趣的思考 。 第一时间出了一道小题 ， 考考家人们 。 如图 ， 二选一 ， 看看哪个更符合你的投资理念 ： A ： 梦想还是要有的 ， 万一实现了呢 。 B ： 我知道你会来 ， 所以我会等 。 | FSID | 合类 详情 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 躺红利掩转债 | | 分红在手,心中元忧 | | 2 佛说ETF被影守息 | | 我等了三年,就是要等一个机会,我要争一口气、不是证明我有多了不起,而是要告诉别人、我失去的东面一定要拿回来! | | 3 红利三十年的图层 | | 用梦想(A) 去发现,用等待(B)去拥有。 | | 4 老男夜bro | B | 普通人还是选 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of maintaining a balanced stock-bond allocation and the strategy of dynamic rebalancing to optimize investment performance during market fluctuations [4][5][6]. Group 1: Stock-Bond Allocation - The simplest form of asset allocation is the stock-bond configuration, which should be based on individual risk tolerance and investment goals, such as a 60% stock and 40% bond allocation [5]. - Maintaining a predetermined stock-bond ratio is crucial to ensure participation in market upswings, referred to as "high moments," which are essential for capitalizing on bull markets [6][8]. Group 2: Dynamic Rebalancing - Dynamic rebalancing involves adjusting the stock-bond ratio back to its original allocation when market fluctuations cause significant deviations [8][9]. - The article suggests that a deviation of 10% in stock asset value should trigger rebalancing, as this aligns with historical annualized returns of broad market indices [27][29]. Group 3: Performance Analysis - Historical data indicates that since 2019, there have been 20 opportunities for dynamic rebalancing, averaging about three times per year, with 11 instances requiring profit-taking from equities and 9 instances necessitating buying into bonds [29]. - The article emphasizes that the primary benefit of dynamic rebalancing is not maximizing profits but smoothing out volatility and maintaining a consistent equity position to capture significant market gains [31][30]. Group 4: Practical Application - The article advocates for a systematic approach to stock-bond allocation and dynamic rebalancing, which is user-friendly and effective for average investors [32]. - It also highlights the importance of adjusting the stock-bond ratio based on market conditions, such as increasing equity exposure during bear markets and locking in profits during bull markets [31].