Group 1 - The article discusses the recent divergence between the RMB exchange rate and the US-China interest rate differential, attributing it to the weakening credit of US assets, which enhances the willingness of enterprises to convert currency [3] - The article emphasizes that the future pricing of the RMB exchange rate should consider the credit of the US dollar, suggesting that a weaker dollar environment provides greater liquidity and policy space domestically [3] Group 2 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focuses on global financial governance, extensive financial opening, and the integration of capital markets with technological innovation [7] - The forum highlights the importance of a comprehensive foreign exchange innovation policy to support high-quality development [7] Group 3 - The article identifies six misconceptions about stablecoins, including the belief that their value is absolutely stable and that all fiat currencies can issue stablecoins in large quantities [9] - It also discusses the potential impact of stablecoins on the supply of US dollars and their role in the RWA market [9] Group 4 - The article outlines a trend of Chinese residents moving their deposits back into wealth management products due to declining deposit rates, reversing a previous trend of deposit inflow [11] - This shift indicates a changing landscape in wealth allocation among Chinese residents [11] Group 5 - The article reviews the historical performance of assets during periods of a weakening dollar since 1970, suggesting investment opportunities in foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equities [13] - It highlights the increasing likelihood of dollar depreciation due to misaligned monetary policies and external circulation obstacles [13] Group 6 - The article presents ten investment themes in the Chinese stock market, focusing on frontier technologies, advanced manufacturing, and improving market structures [15][20] - It emphasizes the potential of AI, bioeconomy, 6G communication, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving as key investment areas [16][17][18][21][23] Group 7 - The article discusses the acceleration of capital market reforms, emphasizing the importance of RMB internationalization and capital opening in stabilizing the stock market [29] - It notes that the integration of technology and industry innovation is crucial for future market developments [29]

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of the stablecoin market, highlighting several misconceptions about stablecoins and their impact on global currencies and assets [1]. Misconception 1: Stablecoins Have Absolute Value Stability - Stablecoins are essentially credit extensions tied to underlying assets, meaning their value is not absolutely stable but relatively stable compared to more volatile assets. They can experience technical de-pegging risks and are influenced by the volatility of the assets they are pegged to [5][6]. Misconception 2: All Fiat Currencies Can Issue Stablecoins in Abundance - Not all fiat currencies can support the large-scale issuance of stablecoins. The development of stablecoins is contingent on the acceptance of the underlying fiat currency. The most widely recognized fiat stablecoins may lead to a "winner-takes-all" scenario [8]. Misconception 3: Dollar Stablecoins Undermine Dollar Credibility - The rapid growth of dollar stablecoins does not weaken the credibility of the dollar; rather, it enhances the dollar's status by expanding its functionality and reach. Dollar stablecoins can provide a hedge against currency depreciation in unstable economies [10]. Misconception 4: Dollar Stablecoins Are a Lifeline for U.S. Treasuries - The dollar stablecoin market can only slightly alleviate pressure on short-term U.S. Treasuries, as the short-term debt market is primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve. Dollar stablecoins do not significantly impact the long-term debt market [13][16]. Misconception 5: Dollar Stablecoins Will Significantly Increase Dollar Supply - While the issuance of dollar stablecoins may delegate some monetary authority from the Federal Reserve to issuing companies, it does not lead to a significant increase in the overall dollar supply. The Federal Reserve remains the main regulator of dollar liquidity [18]. Misconception 6: Stablecoins Will Rapidly Develop the RWA Market - Stablecoins primarily support the Real-World Assets (RWA) market at the transaction level, with the market's growth ultimately dependent on the quality of underlying assets. The RWA market is still in its early stages, with a projected total asset scale of approximately $15 billion by the end of 2024 [21].

展望下半年，将依然行业无金融风险、土地市场延续产品代际差导致的结构好、十五五规划下房企谋求新 商业模式的局面。 我们论述过行业支出减少带来的金融风险下降，预计下半年仍然会呈现出和上半年类似 的局面。同时，土地市场仍将持续超预期，尽管土地出让金仍然负增长，但预计幅度会好于预期，核心就 在于产品代际差带来的新房市场持续处于结构性活跃状态，带动房企拿地和政府推地的积极性维持较高水 平。需要重点关注的是十五五规划带来的房企新思考，尤其是头部房企，在新商业模式驱动下，找到超越 行业发展的新思路。 结构性市场，包袱小的企业仍然将取得更明显的优势。 风险提示： 不扩信用背景下，价格企稳的压力仍在。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称：四平八稳，轻装上阵——地产5月观察及数据点评 报告日期：2025.06.19 报告作者： 涂力磊 （分析师)，登记编号： S0880525040101 谢皓宇 （分析师)，登记编号： S0880518010002 陈昭颖 （研究助理)，登记编号： S0880125042226 报告导读： 5月楼市运营延续4月，整体呈现四平八稳状态，结合十五五规划，接下来的 亮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, indicating a pause in monetary policy, while inflation expectations have intensified, leading to concerns about stagflation [2][3] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time since January 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - Economic forecasts were revised downward for 2025 and 2026, with an increase in unemployment rate predictions and a rise in price index forecasts, further exacerbating stagflation concerns [2] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet fully materialized, suggesting significant uncertainty regarding future inflation [2] - Tariff measures require time to affect consumer prices, and ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East may lead to rising energy prices, contributing to inflationary pressures [2][3] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's stance remains hawkish, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025 unchanged from March, but the forecast for 2026 was reduced from two cuts to one [2] - The number of Fed officials predicting no rate cuts in 2025 increased from four to seven, indicating a more hawkish outlook overall [2] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the June FOMC meeting, the U.S. stock and bond markets exhibited characteristics of stagflation trading, with expectations of further development in this trend in the short term [4] - Anticipation of new economic policies, such as tax cuts and debt ceiling increases, could lead to a recovery trading phase in the latter half of the year [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to rise, potentially reaching a phase of 5% if inflation expectations increase due to tariffs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report captures global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and designs corresponding investment strategies, including equity and bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The equity-bond target allocation strategy employs a risk budgeting design to construct a portfolio that achieves the desired allocation level, offering a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation strategies [2]. - The low-volatility "fixed income+" strategy combines domestic stocks, bonds, and gold with a target allocation of stocks:gold:bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.86% and a volatility of 3.50% over the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to May 30, 2025 [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I, which includes A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieved an annualized return of 11.23% and a volatility of 5.88% over the backtest period from January 2, 2014, to May 30, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Recommendations - For A-shares, the report suggests maintaining a barbell strategy, focusing on high-quality assets in large caps and trading-type assets in small caps, as risks are gradually released after recent pullbacks [4]. - In the domestic bond market, the report recommends focusing on short-term products while considering medium to long-term interest rate bonds or extending the duration of credit bonds due to ongoing economic pressures [4]. - The report indicates that US stocks may continue to experience wide fluctuations due to uncertainties in economic policies and marginal declines in economic conditions [4]. - Japanese stocks may present short-term investment opportunities due to a positive wage-price spiral and continued foreign capital inflows [4]. - Indian stocks are expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to marginal declines in economic conditions and outflows of foreign capital [4]. - Gold prices are anticipated to experience wide fluctuations due to easing tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts, although the long-term upward trend remains clear [4].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Opinions on Supporting the Acceleration of Building Shanghai International Financial Center" and the "Action Plan for the Construction of Shanghai International Financial Center" optimizes market infrastructure, reduces transaction costs, and enhances market liquidity and resilience, providing substantial support to the securities and futures sectors, benefiting multiple non-bank segments [1]. Summary by Sections Policy Framework - On June 18, the Central Financial Committee issued the "Opinions on Supporting the Acceleration of Building Shanghai International Financial Center," followed by the State Financial Supervision Administration and Shanghai Municipal Government's "Action Plan." The "Opinions" outline a comprehensive blueprint for the next 5 to 10 years to enhance Shanghai's financial center capabilities, while the "Action Plan" details specific support measures from a local implementation perspective [2]. - The "Opinions" propose six core measures: deepening financial market construction, enhancing financial institution capabilities, improving financial infrastructure, expanding high-level financial openness, improving service quality for the real economy, and effectively maintaining financial security under open conditions. The "Action Plan" complements this by focusing on financial institution aggregation, implementing service measures for the real economy, expanding institutional openness, enhancing regulatory standards, and improving policy support [2]. Market Impact - The joint release of the "Opinions" and "Action Plan" signals that building Shanghai as an international financial center has become a national strategic priority. This alignment provides clear direction for financial institutions and market participants, significantly boosting market expectations. Various measures will gradually relax market access, increase openness, and foster innovation, which will attract capital inflows and enhance trading activity [3]. - Over the long term, the construction over the next 5 to 10 years is expected to elevate Shanghai's international capital market influence and risk pricing capabilities [3]. Sector Benefits - The policy benefits multiple non-bank sectors by deepening financial market construction and expanding high-level financial openness, directly creating new business opportunities for non-bank institutions. Securities firms will benefit from accelerated listings of "hard tech" companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, increased demand for mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border financing services driven by offshore finance [4]. - Insurance institutions will focus on building Shanghai as an international reinsurance center and pilot projects for pension finance, enhancing the asset management capabilities and risk pricing advantages of leading insurance companies [4]. - Futures companies will benefit from the policy support for building a world-class trading platform at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with the listing of internationalized products such as gold and shipping driving trading volume and commission growth [4].

Macroeconomic Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [1] - Economic forecasts indicate heightened stagflation concerns, with the Fed lowering growth predictions for 2025 and 2026, raising unemployment rate forecasts, and increasing price index predictions [1] - Tariff impacts on inflation have yet to fully materialize, with expectations of future inflation uncertainty due to tariffs and geopolitical issues, particularly in the Middle East [1][2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025 unchanged, but a reduction in anticipated cuts for 2026 from two to one [1] Nuclear Fusion Industry - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, indicating acceleration in the nuclear fusion industry's commercialization [4] - The company holds over 80% market share in the domestic second-generation high-temperature superconducting wire market, with a global market size projected to exceed 10.5 billion by 2030 [5] - Revenue projections for Shanghai Superconductor show significant growth, with expected revenues of 2.40 billion in 2024, a 187.4% increase year-over-year, and a turnaround to profitability [6] - The nuclear fusion sector is recognized for its potential as an ideal energy source, with the Chinese government emphasizing its importance in future energy strategies [7]

报告导读： 近期国内医药行业宏观利好政策密集出台，对创新药企、仿创转型药企发展 形成政策利好。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 中央多部门发文创新药利好政策密集出台 报告日期：2025.06.18 报告作者： 余文心 （分析师），登记编号： S0880525040111 陈铭（研究助理） ，登记编号： S0880125042235 6月16日，为落实《国务院办公厅关于全面深化药品医疗器械监管改革促进医药产业高质量发展的意见》 有关要求， 支持创新药研发，国家药监局在开展优化创新药临床试验审评审批试点工作经验基础上，组织 起草了《关于优化创新药临床试验审评审批有关事项的公告（征求意见稿）》向社会公开征求意见，主要 内容"为进一步支持以临床价值为导向的创新药研发，提高临床研发质效，对符合要求的创新药临床试验 申请在30个工作日内完成审评审批。" 我们认为，当前中央多部门加大对创新药的支持力度，优化集采措施，有望对创新药行业景气度构成利 好。 风险提示： 医保控费加剧风险，政策推进不达预期风险，估值波动风险，市场波动风险。 6月9日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅发布《关于进一 ...

重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...