大力推动中长期资金入市，利好增量资金流入银行板块。 一是受险资权益类投资比例上限上调、长期投资 试点扩围，以及年内可能仍有降准降息使无风险利率进一步下行等影响，或有更多长线资金流入红利板 块。另一是公募基金改革对基金考核模式的指引，或带动产品行业配比向业绩基准收敛。 25Q1 末主动型 公募基金重仓银行股仓位仅 3.25% ，而沪深 300 和中证 800 指数中银行业权重分别为 13.67% 和 10.76% ，大幅欠配，配比再平衡将带动资金积极流入板块。 个股方面建议两条投资策略： 一是优质地区城商行，主因规模高增份额提升、负债端成本改善空间更大可 支撑息差、资产质量安全边际厚、净利润保持一定增速确定性高。二是自 24Q4 起已呈现出存贷款修复迹 象、指数中权重占比和基金仓位占比差距较大的股份行。 报告导读： 4月金融数据略低于预期但已成过去式，5月一揽子金融政策和中美贸易关系缓 和均利好经济预期回升向好。监管大力推动中长期资金入市，利好增量资金流入银行股。 4 月信贷增量小月更小，社融和 M2 低基数下增速回升。 4 月新增信贷仅 2800 亿元，结构上以票据贴现 为主，符合开门红后信贷小月的季节性特征 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the A-share market is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the upcoming week, influenced by historical trends and current market indicators [1][2]. - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was reported at 2.63, indicating that current market liquidity is 2.63 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF decreased to 1.03, reflecting a reduced level of caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. Group 2 - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and the Wind All A Index were 0.89% and 1.45%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity compared to historical levels [2]. - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates increasing by 0.59% and 0.42%, respectively [2]. - In April, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, significantly lower than the consensus expectation of 764.44 billion and the previous value of 3.64 trillion [2]. - The M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus expectation of 7.54% and the previous value of 7% [2]. Group 3 - Historical data shows that the probability of major A-share indices rising in the latter half of May is relatively low, with the SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index having average increases of -0.1%, -0.02%, and 1.71%, respectively [2]. - The Wind All A Index recently broke through the SAR reversal indicator on April 21, indicating a potential upward trend [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 209, placing it in the 82.9 percentile since 2021 [2]. Group 4 - The A-share market experienced a recovery last week, with the SSE 50 Index rising by 1.22%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.12%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.38% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.0 times, which is at the 51.2 percentile since 2005 [3]. - The factor crowding metrics indicate a stable environment, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.91 and low valuation factor crowding at 0.53 [3].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of research services provided by Guotai Junan Securities, targeting signed clients only [2][4] - It highlights the need for compliance with the "Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures" to ensure service quality and control investment risks [2] - The communication expresses gratitude for understanding and cooperation from clients regarding access limitations [2] Group 2 - The public subscription account is identified as belonging to Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. [4]

Core Viewpoint - The open-source strategy of the phenomenon-level model DeepSeek is causing multi-faceted disruption, with potential commercial models comparable to the mature experiences of the open-source software industry [1] Group 1: Open-Source Strategy - DeepSeek is restructuring the global AI competitive landscape with performance comparable to GPT-4, innovative architecture, and a low-cost open-source strategy [1] - Unlike previous closed-source models, DeepSeek publishes core technologies and adopts a permissive MIT license to support free commercial use and secondary development, accelerating industry technology upgrades and expanding AI application scenarios [1] - The open-source model demonstrates strong externalities and positions "open-source" as a significant direction for global AI industry development [1] Group 2: Comparison with Red Hat - DeepSeek shares similarities with Red Hat in their open-source strategy and the early-stage industry development phase, with a focus on service as a sustainable revenue increment [2] - Both companies emphasize technology openness to drive industry development, which accelerates enterprise deployment and builds an ecosystem based on operating systems/AI models [2] - The commercial model of DeepSeek can draw from Red Hat's approach, focusing on addressing enterprise application pain points for sustainable revenue growth [2] Group 3: Market Adoption and Ecosystem Building - In the early stages of commercialization, the open-source model will attract widespread enterprise deployment of DeepSeek, helping to build a scalable ecological barrier [3] - Within 20 days of the official release of DeepSeek-R1, over 160 enterprises have connected, forming a multi-field cooperative ecosystem in the AI industry chain [3] - The open-source model lowers technical barriers and costs, accelerating technology accessibility and attracting various enterprises, including small and medium-sized businesses and government entities [3] Group 4: Revenue Model - In the mid-to-late stage, DeepSeek can achieve a commercial closure through "API call-based basic income + enterprise service subscription value-added income" [4] - The basic income will utilize a low-cost API call charging strategy, which is expected to reduce hardware investment costs through increased call frequency as the ecosystem expands [4] - Value-added income can be generated by providing technical subscription services to address the engineering deployment needs of enterprises using the model, transforming complex engineering issues into standardized service modules [4]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The capital market reform in China is accelerating, leading to a positive outlook for the A/H stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding over 300 points to around 3400 [1] - Investor concerns regarding US-China competition and the government's commitment to supporting the capital market have diminished, indicating a more stable investment environment [1] - The decline in risk-free interest rates and the government's stance on stabilizing and activating the capital market are key drivers for the upward trend in the Chinese stock market [1] Group 2: M&A and Restructuring - The revised regulations for major asset restructuring by the CSRC have introduced a simplified review process, significantly improving transaction efficiency [2] - New mechanisms for payment and regulatory adjustments enhance the adaptability of M&A in the tech sector and state-owned asset integration [2] - The current round of restructuring focuses on industrial logic rather than valuation-driven approaches, aiming to strengthen profitability through industry consolidation [2] Group 3: Sector Analysis - Financial sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and banks are recommended due to declining risk-free rates and increased market entry [3] - Emerging technology sectors are highlighted as growth areas, with recommendations for internet, media, semiconductor, and healthcare industries [3] - The emphasis on domestic consumption and fixed asset investment is rising, with recommendations for sectors like real estate, non-ferrous metals, and consumer goods [3] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - Foreign capital remains dominant in the Hong Kong stock market, accounting for over 60% of the market, despite a slight decline in its proportion [6] - The proportion of southbound funds has increased significantly, indicating a growing influence on market pricing [6] - Different types of foreign capital exhibit distinct trading behaviors, with stable foreign capital favoring long-term holdings and flexible foreign capital engaging in short-term speculation [7]

Group 1 - The article analyzes the performance benchmark adjustments of public funds from 2022 to May 7, 2025, highlighting that the new benchmark in 2024 yielded lower returns compared to the old benchmark [1] - A total of 208 funds were sampled, with 21 in 2022, 47 in 2023, 82 in 2024, and 58 in 2025, categorized into three main types: equity indices, pure bond indices, and cash [1] - The positioning of pure products has become clearer, with short-term bond funds shifting their benchmarks significantly towards cash, while long-term bond funds remained unchanged [1] Group 2 - Mixed product adjustments vary, with funds having less than 20% equity significantly lowering their cash and equity weight, aiming to outperform pure bonds [2] - Funds with 20%-80% equity reduced cash weight and shifted more towards equity, while those with over 80% equity decreased pure bond weight and increased equity, focusing more on style/sector within equity [2]

更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 ...

重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

Core Viewpoint - The accumulation of OCI floating profits in banks has largely been consumed, primarily due to passive consumption from a weak bond market rather than active selling by banks [1][2][3] Group 1: OCI Floating Profit Consumption - Most banks have consumed over half of their OCI floating profit accumulation, with some banks even turning to floating losses; large banks have a relatively smaller consumption ratio, around one-third [1] - Among the six major banks, only one has consumed about half of its floating profit accumulation, while the others have consumed approximately one-third [1] - Out of 33 listed banks with available data, 25 have consumed more than half of their floating profit accumulation, with 7 turning to floating losses [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Revenue - The low performance of bond market investments has significantly dragged down the revenue performance of listed banks, with non-interest income negatively impacting revenue growth by 3.81 percentage points for joint-stock banks and 6.42 percentage points for city commercial banks [1] - For rural commercial banks, the contribution from non-interest income dropped from 7.30 percentage points to 4.52 percentage points [1] Group 3: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The pressure on net interest margins (NIM) is primarily observed in large banks, with a notable narrowing in Q1 due to a "lack of liabilities" leading to a shift towards interbank certificates of deposit [3] - In Q1, the average NIM for large banks narrowed by 0.10 percentage points to a low of 1.39%, significantly weaker than seasonal trends [3] - The recovery trend for NIM is not stable, as interbank deposits saw a seasonal decline in March, although there was a notable rebound in April due to a more relaxed funding environment [3]

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