Core Viewpoint - The beauty and personal care sector presents significant structural opportunities, with platforms extending promotional periods and simplifying gameplay, while domestic brands focus on product innovation and operational optimization, leading to potential multi-point explosions in brand performance [1]. Group 1: Promotional Strategies - Major platforms like Tmall, Douyin, and JD have synchronized their promotional start dates to May 13, intensifying competition for traffic [2]. - Tmall has shifted from a discount model to a direct reduction strategy, emphasizing integrated content and commerce, with pre-sale activities starting earlier than in previous years [2]. - Douyin aims for larger scale and better product experiences, with promotional phases also starting earlier than last year [2]. - JD has introduced surprise days during its promotional period, starting significantly earlier than in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Brand Support and Subsidies - Taobao Tmall has partnered with Xiaohongshu to enhance brand visibility and effectiveness through a new advertising feature, alongside a substantial subsidy program totaling 3 billion yuan [3]. - JD's initiatives include the "Jing Chuang Double Hundred Plan" and "Leading Plan," which allocate over 10 billion yuan in traffic and cash to support merchants during the promotional period [3]. - Douyin has introduced various merchant support policies, including commission-free product cards and additional traffic incentives for beauty products [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Brand Performance - The shift in platform strategies indicates a transition from low-price models to a focus on balancing user experience and merchant growth, with domestic brands leveraging product innovation to achieve significant market performance [4]. - The emphasis on single product explosions and profit recovery for brands suggests a positive outlook for leading brands during promotional events [4].

Group 1: Consumer Trends - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel increased significantly, with the number of travelers and spending up by 6.4% and 8.0% year-on-year, respectively, recovering to 161.0% and 153.1% of 2019 levels, although the average spending per traveler was only at 95.1% of 2019 levels, indicating a need for improvement in consumer spending willingness [2][3] - The performance of the entertainment sector, including live performances and movies, showed a decline, with the number of performances down by 2.52% year-on-year and daily box office revenue for films down by 51.0% compared to the previous year [2][3] Group 2: Real Estate Market - New home sales saw a significant year-on-year increase of 13.7% in 30 major cities, with first-tier and second-tier cities experiencing increases of 24.4% and 14.0%, respectively, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 2.7% [3] - The sales growth of new homes turned positive, while the growth rate of second-hand home sales decreased on a month-on-month basis [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Passenger car sales continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 7% driven by ongoing policy support and new car launches, although daily sales were below previous expectations, and dealer inventory pressure increased [3] Group 4: Manufacturing and Construction - The construction demand in the real estate sector remained weak, leading to a decline in the prices of construction materials, with the cement price index dropping by 1.9% week-on-week [4] - Manufacturing activity showed signs of seasonal slowdown as the holiday approached, with a significant increase in job postings, indicating a strong hiring intention despite the overall slowdown in manufacturing operations [4]

报告导读： HBM 是 AI 、高性能计算、智能驾驶等的核心产品， DRAM 堆叠工艺的发展 尤为关键。目前海外 HBM 龙头公司 SK Hynix 已迭代到 HBM3E ，我国较之仍有不小的 差距，我们认为产业链相关的设备、材料公司将持续发展、力争不断实现技术突破。 投资建议。 HBM（高频宽存储器，High Bandwidth Memory）是将DRAM通过先进封装技术堆叠而成， 与GPU整合于同一块芯片上；目前AI服务器是HBM最重要的市场，未来智能驾驶汽车市场也会大量采用 HBM。我国HBM产业不断发展，目前能实现规模量产的是HBM2、HBM2E，有望在2026E/2027E分别 实现HBM3、HBM3E突破。虽然我国的HBM产业发展较海外龙头公司落后较多，但我们认为伴随下游 Fab、设计公司、设备公司、材料公司的共同努力，本土HBM产业会不断向前发展，其中核心之一便是键 合堆叠环节的突破。 SK Hynix为全球HBM龙头。 根据SemiWiki援引Trendforce数据，2023年全球HBM市场SK Hynix、 Samsung、Micron的市占分别为55%、41%、3%。SK Hynix 2 ...

风险提示： 贸易局势不确定性，国内稳增长政策不及预期 。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 消费和基建有韧性 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版报告。 【 海外科技 】谷歌发布Gemini 2.5 Pro I/O，特朗普政府拟取消AI扩散框架 投资建议： 维持行业增持评级，推荐 AI 算力方向、云厂商方向、 AI 应用方向、 AI 社交方向以及 AI 注 入周期下的中概巨头。 谷歌发布 Gemini2.5 Pro （ I/O 版）， AI 助力前端开发与复杂编程。 为预热 I/O 全球开发者大会，谷 歌发布" I/O Edition "特别预览版 Gemini 2.5 Pro 模型，专门面向开发者群体，主要优化了日常编程任 务，支持创建基于智能体的工作流程。谷歌此次更新的一大亮点在于，只需通过一条提示即可构建完整、 可交互的网页应用或模拟程序。谷歌表示，用户可以输入视觉模式或主题性提示，直接转化为可运行的代 码，这显著降低了设计导向型开发者或创新团队的入门门槛。在 WebDev Arena 基准测试中， Gemini 2.5 Pro 凭借出色的前端开发能力位居榜首。模型在视频 ...

Macro - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, emphasizing the balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system [1][2] - The report highlights the need to lower bank funding costs and suggests an imminent adjustment in deposit rates, reflecting a focus on stabilizing bank margins [1] - The central bank's easing cycle is expected to continue, with potential for further interest rate cuts and structural tools if economic pressures increase [1][2] Strategy - The Chinese A/H stock market is anticipated to rise further, with a positive outlook following recent market corrections and recovery [5][6] - The report notes that investor sentiment has improved regarding the economic situation and government responses to external pressures, creating a favorable environment for market growth [5] - Key sectors for investment include technology, consumer goods, and cyclical industries, with a focus on domestic demand and supply constraints [6][7] Non-Banking - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released a plan for the high-quality development of public funds, focusing on enhancing long-term returns and investor trust [16][17] - The plan aims to shift the focus of fund management from scale to performance, promoting innovation and efficiency within the industry [16][17] - The restructuring of fund management tasks is expected to influence industry competition and lead to a concentration of resources among leading firms [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the recovery of CPI in April is primarily driven by seasonal factors such as food and travel prices, while uncertainties from trade friction and weak recovery of private sector balance sheets are constraining price elasticity. Consequently, there is room for monetary policy to continue its efforts in price regulation in the second half of the year [1]. CPI Analysis - Food price recovery is supported by supply constraints from imports and seasonal factors, with beef prices rising due to drought in South America and a seasonal switch leading to higher fruit and vegetable prices [2]. - Strong travel demand during the Labor Day holiday resulted in a core CPI increase of 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal expectations, while year-on-year growth remained at 0.5% [2]. PPI Analysis - In April, the PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, indicating a persistent mismatch between supply and demand [3]. - The delay in the peak construction season, influenced by fiscal policies prioritizing debt repayment and capital injection into small banks, has affected the PPI recovery pace [3]. - The main drag on PPI comes from upstream raw materials and durable consumer goods, exacerbated by trade friction and weak coal demand following the end of the heating season [3]. Policy Implications - The article emphasizes a heightened focus on price regulation by policymakers, with the central bank's unexpected rate cuts reflecting this priority [3]. - The article notes that the uncertainties from trade friction and the weak recovery of private sector balance sheets are significant constraints on price elasticity, suggesting that there is still potential for monetary policy to exert influence in the coming months [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three unexpected aspects of China's export growth in April 2025, indicating resilience in exports despite challenges, with a focus on the strong performance in exports to the U.S., the effectiveness of re-export trade, and the growth in exports to non-U.S. markets [1][5][6]. Summary by Sections Export Growth Performance - In April 2025, China's export growth rate was 8.1% year-on-year in dollar terms, down from 12.4% previously, while imports saw a slight decline of -0.2% compared to -4.3% before [2]. - Month-on-month, exports increased by 0.6% from March, showing strong resilience despite potential over-extraction in March and the impact of tariffs in April [2]. Trade Surplus and Economic Support - The trade surplus in April was stronger than the average for the first quarter of 2025, providing support for the economy [3]. Export Structure Analysis - The export structure showed significant differentiation: exports to the U.S. fell sharply by -21.0%, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America rose significantly by 20.8% and 17.3%, respectively [4]. - Despite tariff exemptions for mobile phones and computers, export growth in these categories declined, possibly due to prior over-extraction [4]. Unexpected Aspects of Export Growth - The resilience of exports to the U.S. was unexpected, with a month-on-month decline of only about 19 percentage points from seasonal norms, indicating a high dependency of U.S. importers on Chinese goods [5]. - Re-export trade showed unexpected strength, with a combined export growth rate of 4.7% to the U.S., ASEAN, and Latin America, suggesting that re-export trade effectively offset declines in direct exports to the U.S. [5]. - Exports to regions outside the U.S., ASEAN, and Latin America grew by 10.4%, surpassing previous averages, indicating that Chinese exporters are actively seeking new markets [6]. Future Outlook - Short-term export growth may face challenges due to potential cooling in small package exports and capacity constraints in re-export trade, but April's performance demonstrates strong resilience [6].

以下文章来源于国泰海通固收研究 ，作者王宇辰 国泰海通固收研究 . 债市策略与固收研究 报告导读： 本轮债券加速到期的两点启示：一是建议关注加速到期条款中是否有项目因 素等第三方因素；二是建议关注含权债中，推荐估值与行权估值是否存在差异。 复盘过去几年，城投债提前兑付中，面值兑付的占比有所抬升。 从兑付价格类型看， 2017 年 -2018 年 以中债估值净价为主，中债估值净价在当年城投债提前兑付规模中的占比分别为 83.2% 和 60.7% ； 2020 年以来，面值兑付占比有所抬升，近几年面值兑付的占比中枢在 50%-70% 之间。 整体来看，近两年城投债提前兑付，发行人与投资者之间亦存在博弈。 对发行人来说，利率下行大背景 下，面值兑付能够压降综合融资成本，缓释企业偿债压力；对投资者来说，中债估值净价的兑付方式更为 有利。在化债政策的加持下，近几年面值兑付的占比有所抬升。从通过率看，整体通过率在 85% 以上， 但部分面值兑付的债券亦在博弈。近几年整体利率下行趋势下，机构再投资压力抬升，高票息债券提前兑 付未通过的情况时有发生。 本轮债券加速到期的两点启示： 一是建议关注加速到期条款中是否有项目因素等第 ...

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05、【策略】 明确政策立场：贴现率降低，股市中国红——5月7日"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布 会点评 【宏观】 五一消费：出行高增，服务偏强 出行旅游方面，剔除私家车的营业性客运显著修复，出入境火热；服务消费方面，电影票房价涨量跌，缺 乏叫座影片或是需求回落主因，北上游乐场人数显著回升说明服务消费意愿仍强。 风险提示： 关税影响传导至内需，国内经济表现超预期。 【宏观】 货币宽松"再发力"——5月7日央行一揽子货币政策点评 降准降息落地，在 关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前瞻部署、 主动作为。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进 一 步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 风险提示： 经济、政策的不确定性仍存 。 美国无论是经济前景、通胀前景，还是降息前景，都充满了不确定性，而其根源就来自于关税政策的不确 定性和关税对经济影响机制的不确定性。短期经济数据和就业数据韧性进一步延后降息预期，预计后续通 胀压力将对降息时间和幅度形成持续掣肘，衰退交易向滞胀交易继续发酵。 风险提示： 特朗普关税持续导致美国经济下行和通胀上行超预期。 ...