Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing significant short-term valuation compression, but given the resilience of the equity market, convertible bonds still present investment opportunities, particularly through a low premium strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.47% last week, while the China Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.35%, indicating a notable compression in convertible bond valuations [1]. - Institutional profit-taking is a major factor influencing short-term valuations in the convertible bond market, although long-term trends remain positive as long as the equity market continues its upward trajectory [1][2]. Group 2: Valuation and Risks - As of October 17, the average parity of convertible bonds was 97.34 yuan, with an average conversion premium rate of 39.99%. High premium convertible bonds have seen significant compression in their conversion premium rates due to increased expectations of forced redemptions [1]. - Large-scale convertible bonds with high premiums face risks related to forced redemptions, particularly when conversion premium rates are elevated, which could lead to dilution of the underlying stock [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Despite external disturbances, the equity market's upward trend is expected to continue, providing a favorable environment for convertible bonds, which exhibit resilience and potential for both appreciation and downside protection [2]. - In a sustained bull market, a low premium strategy is recommended as it allows for better participation in the underlying stock's gains while minimizing valuation compression risks. The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks and TMT industries benefiting from increased AI capital expenditure, is highlighted as a key area for investment [2].

报告导读： 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配黄金、 A/H 股，战术性标配美债、国债与人民币。 多重因素支持中国权益表现，我们维持对 A/H 股的战术性超配观点。 中国科技突破与新兴产业主题交易热度持续高涨，总量政策预期稳定以及资本市场制度 改革提振市场风险偏好，中国内地无风险利率中枢下行以及海外美联储货币政策趋松调整有利于支持流动性充裕稳定。战术层面看，此次贸易风险的边界相对 清楚，中国反制直击要害，美国关税 100% 之后再加已无实际意义，且面临现实约束。国内金融条件稳定，冲突的另一面是中国财政 / 货币的宽松储备；稳 定资本市场如今对经济社会有四两拨千斤的作用。当下中国社会和投资人关于"找资产"的需求持续井喷，尤其是发展逻辑坚实的优质资产。因此，外部局势的 冲突和交易扰动所造成的资产价格波动，或提供配置机会 。 货币政策预期趋松或推动美国实际利率或温和下行，我们维持对美债的战术性标配观点。 鲍威尔货币政策指引趋于宽松有利于市场修正货币政策与流动性预 期，而地区银行暴雷事件或将催化该进程。预计全球宏观流动有望性温和改善，而降温却未失速的经济状态亦有助于压制内生性通胀粘性与实际利率。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a "strong production, weak demand" pattern in China's economy for Q3 2025, necessitating structural policy adjustments to address internal and external demand pressures [1] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2 [1] - Monthly data indicates a shift in economic dynamics due to policy transitions and holiday timing, with September showing strong production but weak demand [1] Production Sector - Structural improvements in the production sector were noted, with resilient exports and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival contributing positively [1] - The "anti-involution" policies have lessened their disruptive effects on production, leading to a focus on quality enhancement rather than mere scale expansion [1] Demand Sector - Consumer growth appears sluggish, with holiday timing causing a delay in consumption [1] - The effectiveness of trade-in policies has diminished, and property income has negatively impacted income growth and consumer confidence [1] Investment Trends - Investment continues to face challenges, although new infrastructure initiatives are showing marginal signs of improvement [1] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests employing structural tools for counter-cyclical adjustments, such as expanding equipment renewal subsidies, issuing consumption vouchers, and optimizing export tax rebates to mitigate current economic downturn pressures [1]

国泰海通I业务 | 政策和产业研究院 越南投资论 携手越南 · 逐浪远航 2025 年 10月 21日 13:30-17:30 上海 - 国泰海通外滩金融广场 C 栋 616 会议室 东南亚是中国周边外交的优先方向和高质量共建"一带一路"重点地区, 连续 5年与中国互为最大贸易伙伴,是中资企业走出去的重要区域。 越南作为东南亚最具潜力的经济体之一,是中国在东盟的第一大贸易国, 也是中资企业出海的重点方向。为搭建交流合作平台,探寻越南产业及投 资机遇,国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院拟于 10月 21日在上海举办"携 手越南 · 逐浪远航"为题的越南投资论坛,邀请金融、制造、消费、法律等 领域多位重磅嘉宾与会,共同探讨机遇,携手共向未来! 诚邀您的莅临! 主持人:李 俊 - 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院国别研究联席首席分析师 13:30 - 13:40 致苦辛 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院领导 中国东盟经贸合作与出海东南亚 13:40 - 14:10 梁文洮 - 天裕丰咨询创始人、原商务部亚洲司副司长 黄金十年伊始 - 越南宏观经济与投资展望 14:10 - 14:40 黄 博 - 国泰君安(越南)总经理 机构客户 ...

报告导读： "十五五"时期是我国迈向 2035 年远景目标的关键攻坚期，必须坚持以新质 生产力为核心驱动，通过科技创新和产业升级推动高质量发展，同时在复杂多变的国际环 境中统筹改革开放、安全发展与民生福祉。 "十五五"时期（ 2026 — 2030 年）是我国在全面建成小康社会基础上，乘势而上全面建设社会主义现代化国家的关键五年，肩负着为 2035 年基本实现社 会主义现代化远景目标奠定决定性基础的历史使命。本报告立足于"十四五"中后期的发展成就与深刻变化的国内外环境，对"十五五"规划的时代方位、核心 主线、战略目标与政策路径进行了系统性的前瞻研究。 报告指出，"十五五"时期的核心发展主线是以新质生产力驱动高质量发展。这意味着必须将科技创新置于核心地位，通过"基础技术锻新、传统产业焕新、未 来产业育新"，加快发展现代产业体系。人工智能、量子科技、生物制造、低空经济、下一代通信等前沿领域将成为国际竞争与产业布局的战略焦点。 为实现上述目标，本报告构建了系统性的政策框架，提出六大政策建议：一是坚持以新质生产力为核心，构建智能化、绿色化、融合化的现代化产业体系；二 是深化改革开放，构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a recovery in the interest rate market, particularly in the underperforming secondary perpetual bonds and credit bonds, with a more pronounced recovery in perpetual bonds. The credit spread for medium to short-term bonds has narrowed significantly, leading to a steeper spread curve [1]. Primary Issuance - Net financing has seen a significant increase, with a total issuance of 4011.9 billion yuan in major credit bond varieties last week (October 13 - October 17, 2025), compared to a net financing of -35.1 billion yuan in the previous week (October 9 - October 11, 2025) [1]. Secondary Trading - Trading activity has increased, with total transactions in major credit bond varieties reaching 9165.71 billion yuan last week, a rise of 6748.54 billion yuan from the previous week. The yields on medium-term notes have generally declined, with specific decreases noted for AAA and AA+ rated notes [2]. Credit Rating Adjustments and Default Tracking - No credit rating adjustments were made by domestic rating agencies last week. However, one new default bond was reported, issued by Sunshine City Group Co., Ltd. [3].

Group 1: Core Views - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is crucial for establishing a foundation for achieving the 2035 modernization goals, focusing on high-quality development driven by new productive forces [2][3] - The core development line emphasizes technological innovation, with key areas including artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and low-altitude economy becoming strategic focuses in international competition [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Goals - Economic growth should maintain an average of approximately 4.73% annually to achieve the long-term goal of doubling GDP or per capita income by 2035 [3] - Key quality indicators include a continuous increase in labor productivity, R&D investment intensity reaching 3%, and a rise in the share of non-fossil energy consumption to around 25% [3] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - A systematic policy framework is proposed, including building a modern industrial system centered on new productive forces, deepening reform and opening up, and promoting green low-carbon transformation [4] - Emphasis on enhancing governance efficiency through reforms and digital governance to modernize national governance [4] Group 4: AI Industry Insights - OpenAI has signed a 10 GW computing power order with Broadcom, planning to launch custom data center chips by 2026, indicating a strategic move towards building foundational hardware capabilities [7] - OpenAI is exploring new business models, including partnerships with Walmart for direct purchasing through ChatGPT and plans to launch consumer hardware products, aiming for diversified monetization [8] - TSMC has observed stronger AI demand compared to three months ago, with optimistic revenue guidance for Q4, reflecting confidence in the AI growth trajectory [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the launch of the ZhiYuan Spirit G2 humanoid robot by ZhiYuan Robotics and Junpu Intelligent, marking a significant step in the commercialization of interactive embodied intelligence technology in the automotive parts manufacturing sector [1][2] - The humanoid robotics industry in China is experiencing rapid commercialization, with major companies releasing new products and securing significant orders [1][3] Group 1: Product Launch and Applications - The ZhiYuan Spirit G2 was unveiled during a launch event in Ningbo, with the first batch of robots set to be delivered under a procurement contract worth over 100 million yuan with Junsheng Electronics [1][2] - The initial deployment of the G2 will occur on Junsheng Electronics' automotive parts production line, facilitating a transition from "human-machine collaboration" to "machine-led" operations, thereby enhancing production efficiency and reducing operational errors [2] Group 2: Market Developments - The production capacity for embodied intelligent robots is set to expand, with Junpu Intelligent announcing plans to establish a production line with an annual capacity of over 3,000 units, preparing for broader industrial applications of the G2 [2] - UBTECH Robotics secured a significant order worth 126 million yuan for the procurement and installation of equipment for a data collection and testing center, contributing to a total of over 630 million yuan in orders for its Walker humanoid robot series this year [3]

Core Insights - OpenAI is actively expanding its hardware capabilities by signing a 10GW computing power order with Broadcom, aiming to develop custom data center chips by 2026 [3] - OpenAI is exploring new business models, including a partnership with Walmart for direct shopping through ChatGPT and plans to launch consumer hardware products [4] - TSMC has reported stronger AI demand compared to three months ago, with Q4 revenue guidance exceeding expectations [5] Group 1: OpenAI's Hardware Strategy - OpenAI has signed a 10GW computing power agreement with Broadcom, planning to deploy AI accelerators designed by OpenAI, with completion expected by the end of 2029 [3] - The collaboration with Broadcom signifies a strategic move beyond simple hardware purchases, aiming to create a closed-loop system integrating hardware, network, models, and applications [3] - OpenAI has also partnered with NVIDIA and AMD, with plans to deploy a total of 26GW of computing power through various agreements [3] Group 2: Business Model Exploration - OpenAI is exploring new revenue streams, including a partnership with Walmart that allows users to purchase Walmart products directly through ChatGPT, expected to launch in Fall 2025 [4] - The integration of a checkout feature in ChatGPT could generate commission revenue for OpenAI, alongside potential personalized advertising [4] - OpenAI is also planning to collaborate with former Apple designer Jony Ive to develop consumer hardware products, aiming to monetize its intellectual property [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - TSMC has indicated that AI demand is stronger than three months ago, maintaining an optimistic outlook on AI growth prospects [5] - TSMC's Q4 revenue guidance is between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $31.23 billion [5] - The gross margin guidance of 59% to 61% also exceeds market expectations, reflecting confidence in the AI sector's growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming conference organized by Guotai Junan Securities, highlighting the importance of industry research and investment opportunities in the current market environment [2]. Group 1 - The conference will take place from November 4 to 6, 2025, at the China World Hotel in Beijing, with a special room rate of 1200 RMB per night, including breakfast and service fees [2]. - The hotel offers a limited number of luxury rooms at a rate of 1400 RMB per night, emphasizing the need for early reservations due to limited availability [2]. Group 2 - The content of the subscription account is intended solely for clients of Guotai Junan Securities' research services, indicating a focus on providing tailored research and insights to a specific audience [5]. - The company expresses its commitment to maintaining service quality and managing investment risks by restricting access to its research materials [5].