市场表现：全球市场普跌。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 -2.1% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 -2.0% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 -3.0% 。债市方面，日本 10Y 国债利率大幅 上升。大宗方面，玉米涨跌幅居前，天然气涨跌幅靠后。汇率方面，美元升，英镑贬，日元贬，人民币平。上周 AI 泡沫担忧博弈加剧，全球科技板块跌幅普 遍居前，国内材料 & 医药跌幅最大。 交投情绪：上周欧美 / 港股成交放量， A 股 / 韩股缩量。 从成交看，上周上证、韩国 Kospi200 成交下降，标普 500 、欧洲 Stoxx50 、法国 CAC 、德 国 DAX 、日经 225 、恒指成交上升。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比下降、处历史偏低位，美股投资者情绪下降、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上 周港股、欧股、日股、美股波动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周下降。 盈利预期：上周港股材料盈利预期上修，美股科技盈利预期上修。 横向对比来看，上周港股 2025 年盈利预期边际变化表现最优，欧股、美股次之，日股表 现最末。其中： 1 ）港股盈利预期上修，恒生指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期从 2077 上 ...

Group 1: Bond and Equity Market Dynamics - The recent convergence of stock and bond market trends has garnered significant attention, with the 10-day correlation between the TL contract of government bond futures and the CSI 300 index reaching a historical high since July 2025 [2] - Despite this, the negative correlation observed in intraday trading remains, indicating that the relationship between government bond futures and equity markets has entered a new phase, characterized by increased complexity rather than a simple "see-saw" dynamic [2][3] - The current linkage between government bond futures and equity markets is influenced by multiple factors, including expectations of equity rebounds, adjustments in bond market positions due to leverage constraints, and the use of bond futures as a rapid trading tool by equity investors [2] Group 2: Future Outlook for Government Bond Futures - The simplistic daily correlation of "equities down means bond futures up" is expected to be less prevalent moving forward, as market participants deepen their understanding of bond futures, transitioning to a more nuanced pricing phase [3] - The potential for government bond futures to exhibit better resilience against declines is noted, particularly if there are marginal changes in growth stabilization expectations, suggesting an upward gaming space for bond futures [3] Group 3: AI in Financial Institutions - The release of DeepSeek R1 in 2025 is anticipated to significantly enhance general model reasoning capabilities and reduce costs, marking a pivotal moment for AI deployment in financial institutions [6] - AI applications are increasingly penetrating core business and back-office functions within financial institutions, with the potential to reshape business processes and organizational structures, ushering in a new era of financial digitization [6][8] - Large financial institutions are focusing on self-research and private deployment of AI models, while smaller institutions are pursuing cost-effective solutions through lightweight models and agile development [8]

Core Viewpoint - In October, Swiss watch exports to China increased by 12.6% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months of double-digit growth. The export value of watches priced between 200-500 Swiss francs has seen a significant decline, while high-end price segments have been relatively less affected [1][2]. Export Data Summary - In October, the year-on-year changes in Swiss watch exports were as follows: global exports decreased by 4.4%, exports to China increased by 12.6%, exports to the US decreased by 46.8%, exports to Japan decreased by 5.6%, exports to Europe increased by 3.3%, exports to Hong Kong increased by 2.4%, and exports to Singapore increased by 5.6%. Month-on-month changes were -1.3%, -5.2%, +8.8%, +2.3%, +0.1%, -18.2%, and -2.7 percentage points respectively [2]. - Cumulatively from January to October, global exports decreased by 1.6%, exports to China decreased by 13.5%, exports to the US increased by 3.7%, exports to Japan decreased by 6.4%, exports to Europe decreased by 0.9%, exports to Hong Kong decreased by 7.4%, and exports to Singapore decreased by 0.8% [2]. - The exports to China in September and October showed significant growth of 17.8% and 12.6% respectively, attributed to a low base from the previous year [2]. Price Segment Analysis - The export values for Swiss watches in October by price segment were as follows: under 200 Swiss francs increased by 8.2%, 200-500 Swiss francs decreased by 0.7%, 500-3000 Swiss francs increased by 9.4%, and over 3000 Swiss francs decreased by 7.1%. Cumulatively from January to October, the export values were down by 2.7% for under 200 Swiss francs, down by 8.7% for 200-500 Swiss francs, up by 0.1% for 500-3000 Swiss francs, and up by 1.6% for over 3000 Swiss francs [3]. - The 200-500 Swiss francs segment experienced the most significant decline, while higher-end segments were less impacted [3]. Future Outlook - Short-term outlook indicates pressure on October export data, with Q4 overseas consumption needing further observation. Looking ahead to 2026, the recovery logic for the export manufacturing sector appears clearer, driven by three main factors: the implementation of US tariff policies, reduced tariff pressure shared with brands, and ongoing improvements in production line allocation and capacity [1]. - The North American consumer market remains supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, with recent luxury brand earnings reports indicating that the North American market is leading in growth and accelerating compared to Q2. However, attention should be paid to the resilience of performance in Q4 against a high base and consumer reactions following price increases in Q3 [1].

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of pricing strategies in achieving success by 2026, emphasizing the need for effective fiscal and monetary policies [2][6] - Expectations for future risk-free interest rate trends are analyzed, indicating potential shifts that could impact investment decisions [6] - The article highlights the significance of understanding market dynamics and policy implications for long-term investment strategies [6] Group 2 - The research emphasizes the role of macroeconomic indicators in shaping investment opportunities and risks in the coming years [4] - Insights into the anticipated fiscal policies and their potential effects on various sectors are provided, suggesting areas for strategic focus [4][6] - The analysis includes projections for economic growth and market performance, which are crucial for investors to consider [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, recommending an overweight position in A/H shares while suggesting a benchmark allocation in US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and the Chinese yuan [1]. Group 1: A/H Shares - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, leading to a tactical overweight recommendation for A/H shares. The significant pressure on global risk appetite has resulted in increased asset volatility and panic selling, which has released micro trading risks [1]. - As the 14th Five-Year Plan begins, the importance of economic growth is highlighted, with a policy window approaching that may establish new market expectations. The regulatory authorities show strong determination and action plans to stabilize the capital market [1]. - Factors that previously caused valuation discounts in the stock market have dissipated, and with tail risks decreasing and the stabilization of RMB assets, the Chinese capital market is entering a phase of valuation recovery and significant growth potential [1]. Group 2: US Stocks - The risk appetite has not yet stabilized, and the market may continue to speculate on AI industry trends, leading to a tactical benchmark allocation in US stocks. The US employment report for September was underwhelming, and Federal Reserve officials are cautious in their monetary policy guidance, resulting in a downward revision of future rate cut probabilities [2]. - Despite Nvidia's satisfactory earnings report and guidance, the risk assets have experienced significant volatility, and the overall risk appetite remains substantially reduced [2]. - The company maintains an optimistic view on the AI industry trend, but the market may still engage in speculative expectations in the short term. The risk-return profile of US stocks is considered moderate compared to other major asset classes [2]. Group 3: US Treasuries - The decline in intrinsic inflation stickiness broadens the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment space, leading to a tactical benchmark allocation in US Treasuries. The cooling labor market, weaker energy prices, and slow wage growth contribute to this decline [2]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to closely follow the US economic conditions, with a low probability of further tightening. US Treasury yields may experience a moderate decline, with a risk-return profile considered moderate compared to other major asset classes [2]. Group 4: Gold - Global capital market volatility and trading fund dynamics may amplify gold price fluctuations, leading to a tactical benchmark allocation in gold. Previous uncertainties from Trump-era policies, worsening geopolitical situations, and ongoing central bank gold purchases have supported gold prices while attracting speculative trading funds [2]. - Recent marginal changes in Eastern European geopolitical situations and capital market volatility may lead to increased gold price fluctuations due to cross-asset fund flows. The risk-return profile of gold is viewed as moderate compared to other major asset classes [2]. Group 5: Chinese Yuan - The resilience of the Chinese economy and the reduction of extreme geopolitical conflict risks support the stability of the RMB exchange rate, leading to a tactical benchmark allocation in the yuan. The Chinese economy is performing steadily, with stronger growth momentum compared to other major economies [3]. - Improved capital market returns and optimistic economic expectations are expected to support the stable appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In the increasingly complex global macro environment, the RMB is anticipated to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation trend with a central tendency of appreciation [3].

报告导读： 本周国内外 AI 进展趋势积极， Google 发布的 Gemini 3 Pro 、生图模型 Nano Banana Pro 实际能力均有显著提升，国内阿里"千问"和蚂蚁"灵光" APP 上线后均 获得大量关注，或开启新一轮 AI 应用发展浪潮。 建议关注 AI 方面谷歌 Gemini 3 、 Nano Banana Pro 代表的 AI 能力提升对于内容生产的变革意义，以及阿里、蚂蚁的 AI 应用影响力扩大，或带来国内 AI 应用发展的加速。建议布局垂直细分领域业绩有望持续高增的投资机会。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 关注国内外AI进展：谷歌Gemini 3、Nano Banana Pro发布，阿里"千问"、蚂蚁"灵光"上 线；报告日期：2025.11.22 报告作者： 陈筱（分析师），登记编号：S0880515040003 杨昊（分析师），登记编号：S0880524020001 陈俊希（分析师），登记编号：S0880520120009 陈星光（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040043 孙小雯（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040021 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global risk appetite has decreased, with the VIX index and MOVE 5-day moving average rising significantly, leading to a synchronized decline in both stock and commodity markets [2] - Major global stock indices have generally retreated, with the technology sector experiencing notable declines, while gold, silver, copper, and oil also recorded drops [2][3] - The USD index has surpassed 100, and the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, approaching the 160 mark against the dollar [2][5] Group 2: Equity Market Performance - The MSCI global index fell by 2.5%, with developed markets showing a pattern where declines in frontier markets were less severe than in developed and emerging markets [3] - In the U.S., major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dropped by 1.9%, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.7%, indicating increased scrutiny on the earnings quality of major tech firms [3] - Emerging markets saw significant declines in A-shares, with small-cap and tech boards dropping over 5.1%, while the Russian RTS index rose sharply by 9.1% [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting upward and the 10Y-2Y spread widening [4] - In contrast, U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the yield curve moving downward, influenced by dovish comments from the New York Fed [4] - The Japanese government is expected to issue additional bonds to finance a fiscal stimulus plan, which may lead to increased long-term bond yields [4] Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as South China and CRB fell by 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, with only three out of thirteen major commodity futures recording price increases [5] - The dollar index rose by 0.9%, while the yen depreciated by 1.2%, which may benefit Japanese exporters but also heighten inflationary pressures [5] - The Bank of Japan faces increased pressure to raise interest rates due to the combination of yen depreciation and inflation [5] Group 5: Fixed Income Issuance and Trading - Net financing in the bond market increased, with a total issuance of 3,846.4 billion yuan against 2,555.6 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net increase of 1,290.8 billion yuan [9] - Secondary market trading volume decreased, with total transactions amounting to 7,783.28 billion yuan, down from 8,032.22 billion yuan the previous week [10] - The yield on 3-year AAA medium-term notes fell by 2.33 basis points to 1.86%, indicating a downward trend in short-term yields [10]

Group 1: Key Points on the TAZARA Railway Project - The TAZARA Railway activation project was inaugurated with the participation of the Chinese Premier and leaders from Zambia and Tanzania, aiming to enhance industrial and agricultural modernization in the region [1] - The railway, originally built in the 1970s, spans 1860.5 kilometers and includes 320 bridges and 22 tunnels, with the activation expected to increase freight capacity from approximately 200,000 tons to 2.4 million tons annually, while reducing transit time by two-thirds [1] Group 2: Urban Renewal Initiatives - A national urban renewal conference was held to promote high-quality urban development, focusing on creating modern, resilient, and smart cities [2] - The initiative emphasizes the necessity of urban renewal for accelerating urban energy transformation and aims to stimulate investment and consumption through new industries and business models [2] - A sustainable financing system for urban construction and operation is being established, encouraging financial institutions to develop long-term, low-interest credit products [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments and Investment Opportunities - Expectations for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have increased, with Ukraine's delegation set to participate in negotiations regarding a U.S. peace plan [3] - A joint statement from multiple European nations indicates that the U.S. proposal could serve as a foundation for further discussions, highlighting the geopolitical context that may influence international engineering projects under the Belt and Road Initiative [3] Group 4: Recommended Investment Sectors - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as copper and cobalt resources, energy storage, dividends, and infrastructure development in Western regions as potential investment opportunities [4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the evolution of lighthouse factories as key carriers of new productive forces and new industrialization, driven by AI and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3] - It highlights the increasing influence of AI on lighthouse factories, positioning AI+ manufacturing as a top-level driver for the development of these factories [2][3] Group 1: Lighthouse Factory Development - Lighthouse factories have transitioned from being technology models to global smart manufacturing hubs, representing the highest level of global smart manufacturing [2] - The assessment focus of lighthouse factories has evolved from single-point applications of Industry 4.0 to comprehensive operational upgrades that include sustainability, supply chain resilience, talent systems, and customer orientation [2] - The latest lighthouse factories have significantly improved key performance indicators such as labor productivity and delivery cycles, with AI applications reducing defect rates, energy consumption, and production cycles [2] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government has integrated digitalization, networking, intelligence, and greening into the main line of manufacturing development, viewing smart and lighthouse factories as important carriers of new productive forces [3] - Local governments are providing financial subsidies, pilot demonstrations, and industrial funds to cultivate lighthouse factories, creating a complete policy chain from diagnosis to demonstration [3] - The industry layout of lighthouse factories in China is extending into high-tech fields, with core operational indicators significantly surpassing the global average [3] Group 3: Domestic Industry Collaboration - Domestic industrial software and automation vendors are becoming the core drivers of the lighthouse factory ecosystem, focusing on industrial software, automation control, industrial internet, and AI models [3] - These companies are providing comprehensive capabilities from "factory operating systems" to scenario-based solutions, enhancing the digital foundation of lighthouse factories [3]

Economic Overview - Ethiopia, with a population exceeding 130 million, is the second most populous country in Africa and has a rapidly growing economy despite its low development level [1] - The country faces significant investment challenges due to high inflation and severe foreign exchange shortages, with the Ethiopian birr depreciating from 58:1 to 149:1 against the US dollar between July 2024 and October 2025 [1] Cement Supply and Demand - The cement production and sales in Ethiopia are experiencing rapid growth, driven by economic development and population increase [1] - Major cement production facilities include a 1.3 million ton line by West Cement launched in October 2020 and a 5 million ton line by Lemi set to launch in August 2024, which will help alleviate cement shortages [1] Competitive Landscape - The Ethiopian cement market is characterized by five major companies, with West Cement leading at 6.3 million tons of capacity, holding a 43% market share [1] - Other significant players include Dangote and Derba, each with 2.5 million tons of capacity, followed by Messebo and Habesha with 2.1 million and 1.4 million tons, respectively [1] Profitability and Trends - The profitability of the cement sector is under short-term pressure due to multiple factors, including the large-scale production capacity coming online, rapid currency depreciation, and delays in infrastructure projects affecting local demand [2] - Cement prices have dropped sharply from approximately $120 per ton in the first half of 2024 to $50 per ton, impacting profitability [2]