【策略 】 转型牛：更高、更稳、更长 风险提示： 海外经济衰退超预期，全球地缘政治的不确定性。 【 计算机】 GEO：AI搜索时代的流量新范式 每周 一 景 ： 青海省茫崖市艾肯泉天使之眼恶魔之眼 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 GEO（Generative Engine Optimization，生成式引擎优化）本质上是AI搜索/RAG架构下的"信任工程"，核心目标从"提高网页点击率"升级为"提高品牌在 AI答案中的采信率与引用频次"。 在零点击时代，用户直接在AI回答页完成认知和决策，SEO只解决"被看到"，GEO解决"被AI说出来并站在你这边"。AI搜索 从"列表点击"切换为"答案直达"，传统SEO在AI搜索场景下边际效用下降，强调"被AI采信"的GEO正成为营销技术新范式，并以SaaS为主要商业模式，市场 空间有望达"百亿美元级"。 大势研判：中国"转型牛"，更高、更稳、更长。 2026年开年以来，上证指数连续站上4000点与4100点，走势强劲。国泰海通策略在2025年12月28日发布 了重要报告《跨越，远望又新峰》，系统性的回顾和讨论了自2025年以来我们对于中国市场的思考。2024年924解决"内忧 ...

报告导读： AI应用板块迎来催化，带动金融科技板块上涨。细分行业方面：九方智投收购完 成，金融IT系统持续升级，大模型基准相继落地。 2026/1/4-2026/1/16，金融科技涨幅7.4%，港股金融科技指数上涨6.95%。 金融信息服务和金融IT涨幅在金融科技指数中表现突出，主因AI应用板块迎来催 化，AI在金融领域的应用标的受益。 金融科技IT持续升级，市场运行稳定性强化。 金融IT领域银联商务携手工商银行以数币智能合约赋能养老金融；华为与交通银行合作推动金融运维迈入人机 协同 "对话新时代"；金融信息服务行业合规监管持续趋紧，沪深北交易所将融资保证金最低比例从 80% 提至 100%，防范市场杠杆风险，证监会强调 "稳字当 头"，以防范风险；第三方支付央行发布《反洗钱特别预防措施管理办法》，强化风控与违法打击，财付通下调微信零钱提现最低收费至0.01元/笔，优化用户 体验；消费金融：大连金州联丰村镇银行因多项严重违规被吊销金融许可证，属地方首例因贷款业务不审慎的吊销处罚，凸显行业严监管常态化。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： AI应用加速落地，利好金融科技板块 ；报告日期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the 30-year government bond, highlighting its unique position in the market characterized by high elasticity and liquidity, which has led to a "negative premium" situation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since December 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond has fluctuated, returning to 1.83%, while the 10-year policy bank bond increased from 1.90% to 1.96%, and the 30-year government bond surged from 2.19% to 2.30% [1]. - The high elasticity and liquidity of the 30-year and 10-year bonds make them preferred for flexible trading strategies, allowing for easier execution of hedging strategies [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - In a rising interest rate environment, the 30-year government bond faces directional trading challenges, but it is also a key instrument for various hedging strategies, including credit bonds and local government bonds [2]. - The borrowing and selling volume of the 30-year government bond has seen significant growth, with borrowing rates reaching 140-150 basis points [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for the 30-year government bond yield spread to recover depends on three scenarios: a sharp rebound, stable interest rate expectations, and central bank interventions [3]. - The upcoming market conditions may favor strategies that involve holding high coupon, low elasticity, and low liquidity bonds, particularly around the Spring Festival [3].

报告导读： "点刹"不是"熄火"，监管治理水平上升，市场发展更长远。无风险收益下沉、 资本市场改革与中国经济转型，"转型牛"还有很大空间，看好细分龙头。 大势研判：中国"转型牛"，更高、更稳、更长。 2026年开年以来，上证指数连续站上4000点与4100点，走势强劲。国泰海通策略在2025年12月28日发布 了重要报告《跨越，远望又新峰》，系统性的回顾和讨论了自2025年以来我们对于中国市场的思考。2024年924解决"内忧"、2025年中美交锋解决"外 患"，社会各界内心当中的担忧得以放下，这是中国股市得以重估的重要前提。相比2019-2024，自2025年以来的中国社会对外更自信、对内更稳定、资产 负债表逐步企稳，因此资本市场具备了过去所没有的凝聚社会共识和社会资本的能力，资本市场也是连接社会资本与经济生产力提高，以及促进居民参与中国 实体转型发展的关键纽带，站在了大发展周期，也形成了"转型牛"根基。而我们时常讨论的中国社会刚兑的打破，无风险收益的下降、资本市场改革、经济结 构转型，构成了"转型牛"的三大关键动力，由此国泰海通对于中国市场的看法是乐观的、坚定的，2026年"转型牛"的空间还很大。 "点刹 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's launch of the Qianwen App on January 15 marks a significant shift in domestic AI large model applications from "content generation" to "service access," indicating a new turning point in human-computer interaction [2]. Group 1: Product Development - The Qianwen App has evolved from a simple "chat tool" to a multifunctional "task assistant," capable of executing complex tasks through natural language commands, such as ordering 40 cups of milk tea or booking flights [2]. - This development signifies a substantial breakthrough in AI Agent technology at the consumer level, redefining the product form of AI Assistants [2]. Group 2: Ecosystem Integration - The Qianwen App integrates deeply with Alibaba's core business segments, including Taobao, Alipay, and Fliggy, allowing users to complete transactions without leaving the app [3]. - This integration creates a robust "AI + service" business loop, leveraging Alibaba's strengths in e-commerce, payments, and local services to establish a high competitive barrier [3]. Group 3: User Engagement and Market Position - The Qianwen App has surpassed 100 million monthly active users, with a rapid growth rate among younger demographics, and a 300% month-on-month increase in user-initiated product inquiries [3]. - By covering high-frequency life scenarios such as food delivery and ticket booking, the app is expected to enhance user engagement and transition from a low-frequency "tool" to a high-frequency "lifestyle entry point" [3]. - The future commercialization path of the Qianwen App is anticipated to evolve beyond API subscriptions or advertising, moving towards e-commerce O2O models [3].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various investment strategies in 2025, particularly the growth-oriented selected portfolio which achieved a cumulative return of 84.1%, significantly outperforming the 885001 index by 50.9% [1]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - In 2025, the growth-oriented selected portfolio showed the best performance among active quantitative portfolios, with a net cumulative return of 84.1%, surpassing the cumulative excess returns of the CSI 800 and 885001 indices by 63.2% and 50.9% respectively [1]. - The small-cap style portfolio also performed well, significantly outperforming the CSI 2000 index, while the high-dividend style portfolio had a weaker performance with a cumulative return of 15.0%, underperforming the CSI 800 index but exceeding the corresponding CSI dividend index [1]. Group 2: Strategy Enhancement - The monthly rebalancing index-enhanced portfolio constructed based on a linear multi-factor model showed that the ICIR weighted method significantly outperformed the IC mean weighted method in 2025 [2]. - Under the IC mean weighted method, the excess returns for the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 index enhancement strategies relative to their benchmark indices were 6.8%, 3.1%, 5.1%, and 4.8% respectively, while the ICIR weighted method yielded excess returns of 10.7%, 9.5%, 10.2%, and 13.2% [2]. - To improve the performance of index-enhanced portfolios in a challenging excess return environment, a multi-strategy approach was proposed, consisting of a basic index enhancement strategy (60% weight), an intra-domain satellite strategy focusing on momentum and fundamental factors (30% weight), and an extra-domain satellite strategy targeting small-cap high-growth stocks (10% weight), resulting in an annualized return improvement of 3.6% compared to the basic strategy [2].

Core Viewpoint - The positive signals in December's financial data stem from improvements in corporate loans and M2 growth, while the sustainability of credit expansion remains a key concern for future assessments [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In December, the social financing growth rate fell to 8.3% from 8.5% in November, primarily due to a significant decline in net financing of government bonds year-on-year [2]. - The positive signals are attributed to an increase in corporate loans and M2 growth, with corporate medium and long-term loans increasing by 290 billion [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The new policy financial tools have begun to show their effect on corporate loans, with M1 and M2 performing well, where M1 increased by 2.6 trillion month-on-month [3]. - The People's Bank of China announced eight structural monetary policy tools aimed at optimizing policies, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, emphasizing targeted support and structural optimization rather than broad monetary easing [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The improvement in corporate loans and M2 is primarily driven by policy and seasonal factors, with a short-term acceleration in household asset allocation supporting liquidity [4]. - The ability of credit expansion to sustain itself will be crucial for future assessments of risk appetite and asset performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative potential of Generative AI and GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) in enhancing marketing efficiency, suggesting that e-commerce operators are well-positioned to leverage these changes and meet brand marketing demands, leading to a significant shift in brand marketing strategies over the long term [1]. Group 1: GEO and Marketing Transformation - GEO represents a new era in marketing, focusing on optimizing content for AI to extract key information quickly, which is expected to enhance marketing efficiency and shorten consumer decision-making cycles compared to traditional SEO [1][3]. - The rise of AI-driven recommendations is anticipated to create new marketing scenarios, with GEO likely to replace parts of the traditional SEO market due to its higher efficiency [1][3]. Group 2: Content Requirements for GEO - GEO requires a more specialized approach to content, as AI prefers rational, authoritative, and highly structured information sources, necessitating optimization in content credibility and coverage [2]. Group 3: Beneficiaries of GEO Transformation - Five types of companies are expected to benefit from the GEO transformation: 1. AI platform companies as new traffic entry points 2. SaaS companies providing software services for optimization 3. Marketing companies offering targeted marketing services 4. E-commerce operators assisting brands in maximizing sales 5. Brands that adapt to new traffic distribution methods [3]. - E-commerce operators are particularly well-positioned to respond to changes in channel and traffic dynamics, with leading companies likely to benefit first [3].

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E. 未贴现银行汇票减少 1492 亿，同比多减 162 亿； 报告导读： 25 年 12 月社融信贷数据发布，企业贷款增长回暖，居民信贷需求仍待修 复；非银存款同比少减，或反映存款搬家趋势延续。 社融结 构拆分： 1 、社融增速： 2025 年 12 月社融增速 8.3% ，较上月下降 0.2pc ，剔除政府债券后的社融增速 6.1% ，较上月上升 0.1pc 。 2 、社融结构： 12 月单月新增社融 2.21 万亿，同比少增 6457 亿 。 其中企业贷款多增为社融主要支撑，政府债为主要拖累。 A. 对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加 9757 亿，同比多增 1355 亿，主要得益于企业贷款贡献，居民信贷需求仍待修复； B. 新口径下企业债券融资净增加 1524 亿，同比多增 1683 亿； C. 表外融资方面，信托贷款净增加 680 亿，委托贷款净增加 307 亿，分别同比多增 529 亿和同比多增 327 亿； D. 政府债券净增加 6864 亿，同比少增 10702 亿；政府债发行节奏错位， 12 月政府债券同比少增。 信贷、存款增长情况： 1 ）贷款： 12 月新增人民币贷款 9100 亿元，同比少 ...