大模型发展如火如荼,将大模型进一步融合至智能驾驶中已成为产业共识, 而近年来政策正使得 L3 级智能驾驶落地商用渐成可能。在此背景下,视觉 - 语言 - 动作模型 (VLA) 应运而生，VLA 有望构建类似人类驾驶员的整体认知 框架,将影响智能笃驶、具身智能产业格局与技术发展路线,并带来巨大的市 场和资本机遇。 13:30-13:40 领导发言致辞 L3 高阶智驾专题暨 VLA 模型产业 自皮书及产业图谱发布 2025年9月4日(周四) 上海 - 国泰海通外滩金融广场 陈忠义 - 国泰海通证券副总裁、研究与机构业务委员 会总裁、研究所党委书记、政策和产业研究院院长 吴珩 - 上汽集团金融事业部 总经理、上汽集团金控管 理有限公司 总经理 13:40-14:00 通往 L3 智能驾驶与具身智能之钥 -- 视觉 - 语言 - 动作模型(VLA) 朱峰 - 国泰海通政策和产业研究院科技首席分析师 14:00-14:30 主题演讲 袁玉记 -Momenta 解决方案总监 Momenta (北京初速度科技有限公司)是全球领先自 动驾驶公司,致力于通过深度学习和人工智能技术实 现可规模化的自动驾驶解决方案。公司基于数据驱 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing increased trading activity, with significant inflows from ETFs and other capital sources, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and participation from retail investors [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trading Activity - The trading heat in the A-share market has risen, with the average daily trading volume reaching 3 trillion yuan, and the turnover rate for the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 both rising to the 98th percentile [3]. - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit has decreased to 69, with the maximum consecutive limit-up days averaging 5.5, and the sealing rate slightly declining to 67.4% [3]. - The proportion of stocks that gained in value has dropped to 32.06%, with the median weekly return for all A-shares falling to -2.07% [3]. Group 2: Capital Flows - Public funds saw new issuance scale increase to 20.528 billion yuan, with equity funds increasing their positions [4]. - Foreign capital inflow reached 245 million USD as of August 27, with northbound trading accounting for 13.3% of total trading [4]. - The net inflow of ETFs expanded to 8.39 billion yuan, with passive trading significantly increasing to 6.1% of total trading volume [4]. Group 3: Industry Allocation - The technology and financial cyclical sectors are attracting significant capital, with net inflows in electronics (+30.15 billion yuan) and communications (+8.41 billion yuan) leading the way [5]. - Foreign capital has notably flowed into banking and electronics sectors, with no significant outflows reported [5]. - The top three industries on the trading leaderboard are computer, electronics, and machinery equipment [5]. Group 4: Hong Kong and Global Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflow increased to 22.17 billion yuan, marking a 75th percentile level since 2022, while foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong market reached 34.1 million USD as of August 27 [6]. - Developed markets saw a net outflow of 3.85 billion USD, while emerging markets experienced a net inflow of 0.4 billion USD [6]. - Active foreign capital continues to flow into A-shares, with the inflow scale marginally expanding [6].

Group 1: Fixed Income Strategies - The strategy for credit bonds and sci-tech bonds ETFs focuses on four main considerations: cash retention versus bond allocation, seeking flexibility versus static returns, duration versus credit risk for yield, and the duration structure of holdings being either barbell or bullet [4] - Historical review indicates that cash retention is typically a short-term phenomenon during periods of weak market conditions, and the likelihood of holding cash is low [4] - In the current low interest rate and low spread environment, actively seeking static returns through credit bond ETFs is not cost-effective, and these ETFs tend to extend duration to seek flexibility when interest rates stabilize or decline [4][5] Group 2: Credit Bond ETF Preferences - Given the current market environment, the preference for sci-tech bond ETFs may align with that of credit bond ETFs during correction periods, focusing on high flexibility and high ratings while favoring a barbell strategy with increased allocation to long-duration bonds [5] - The credit dimension shows that during volatile periods, credit bond ETFs have increased their allocation to high-rated bonds, and this trend is expected to continue for sci-tech bond ETFs, maintaining a dominant position in AAA-rated and above securities [5] Group 3: Selection Strategies for Sci-Tech Bonds - The selection strategy for sci-tech bonds during expansion expectations is based on the excess spread between component bonds and non-component bonds, with a narrowing spread observed as of August 29 [6] - There is an anticipated increase in demand for perpetual (non-subordinated) sci-tech bonds due to expansion expectations, with three of the first ten sci-tech bond ETFs including such bonds [6] - The issuance space for new sci-tech bonds has increased, with an average weekly issuance of 427 billion since July, indicating a growing opportunity for new issuances [6] Group 4: Market Trends in Consumer Goods - The food and beverage sector is expected to show performance advantages in growth, with a stable revenue scale and a deceleration in profit growth, particularly in the beverage and snack segments [15] - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector in Q2 2025 showed a slight increase in revenue and a decrease in net profit, with specific segments like soft drinks and snacks experiencing significant growth [16][17] - The high-end and sub-high-end liquor segments are facing pressure on demand, leading to a notable divergence in performance among brands, with top brands maintaining stability while others struggle [16]

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced mixed performance last week, with increased trading activity and heightened market observation. There are indications from multiple Federal Reserve officials suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September, with market expectations of approximately two rate cuts within the year. Additionally, economic forecasts for both the US and China have been marginally revised upwards, while earnings expectations for US tech stocks in 2026 continue to be upgraded, and those for Hong Kong stocks have been slightly downgraded [1]. Market Performance - Global markets showed mixed results last week, with MSCI Global down by 0.4%, MSCI Developed down by 0.4%, and MSCI Emerging down by 0.6%. In the bond market, French 10Y government bond yields saw a significant increase. In commodities, silver prices led the gains. Currency-wise, the US dollar strengthened, the British pound depreciated, the Japanese yen remained stable, and the Chinese yuan appreciated. Sector-wise, the materials sector in Hong Kong led the gains, while the energy sector in the US showed relative strength [2]. Trading Sentiment - Overall trading sentiment in global stock markets improved last week, with increased trading volumes in indices such as the Hang Seng Index, S&P 500, European Stoxx 50, and Nikkei 225, while the Korean Kospi 200 saw a decline in trading volume. Investor sentiment in Hong Kong and the US decreased but remained at historically high levels. Volatility increased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while it decreased in Japan. Valuations for both developed and emerging markets saw a decline compared to the previous week [2]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong's consumer discretionary sector were downgraded last week. Comparatively, US earnings expectations for 2025 showed the best performance, followed by European and Hong Kong markets, with Japan lagging. Specifically, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 2190 to 2140. The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was adjusted from 268 to 269, while the Eurozone STOXX 50's 2025 EPS forecast was slightly increased from 335 to 336 [3]. Economic Expectations - Economic forecasts for both the US and China were revised upwards last week. The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index increased, benefiting from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong earnings reports from tech leaders like Nvidia. Conversely, the European Economic Surprise Index declined, likely due to a drop in the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index in August. China's Economic Surprise Index rose, attributed to policy expectations, increased retail participation, and structural highlights in earnings reports [3]. Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity showed a slight easing last week. Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential rate cut in September. As of August 29, futures market implied rates suggested expectations of approximately 2.2 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, an increase from the previous week. Last week, US dollar liquidity tightened marginally. In terms of micro liquidity, July saw capital inflows primarily into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with flexible foreign capital and net inflows into Hong Kong stocks last week [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the market is favoring small-cap and growth styles, with the style rotation model for Q3 2025 confirming this trend [1][2] - In August, the small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks with a monthly excess return of 1.34%, while growth stocks outperformed value stocks with a monthly excess return of 12.76% [1][3] - The industry rotation model showed that in August, two industry combinations achieved absolute returns exceeding 12%, with excess returns above 4% [1][3] Group 2 - The dual-driven rotation strategy for Q3 2025 indicated a signal for small-cap stocks based on the latest data as of June 30, 2025, with a composite score of -3 [2] - The dual-driven rotation strategy for Q3 2025 also indicated a signal for growth stocks, with a composite score of -5 [3] - In August, the composite factor strategy achieved an excess return of 4.38%, while the single-factor multi-strategy achieved an excess return of 4.59% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector shows stable revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with a slight decline in profit in the second quarter, indicating a mixed performance across different segments [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Performance - In H1 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue and net profit both increased by 1% year-on-year, while Q2 showed a revenue increase of 0.2% but a net profit decline of 2% [1][2]. - The liquor segment is experiencing a slowdown, while consumer goods are showing structural growth, particularly in soft drinks, yellow wine, condiments, and dairy products [2]. Group 2: Liquor Segment - The liquor market is under pressure, with high-end, sub-high-end, and regional liquor revenues growing by 3%, -5%, and -27% respectively in Q2 2025, and net profits declining by 1%, -19%, and -42% [3]. - The competitive environment is leading to a faster destocking process, with high-end brands like Moutai maintaining stable performance while second-tier brands are experiencing a more pronounced destocking rhythm [3]. Group 3: Consumer Goods Performance - Beer revenue grew by 2% and net profit by 13% in Q2 2025, driven by structural upgrades and cost improvements [4]. - Yellow wine saw a revenue increase of 9% and a net profit increase of 64% in Q2 2025 [4]. - Soft drinks experienced a revenue increase of 17% and a net profit increase of 19%, indicating sustained high demand [4]. - Snacks showed a mixed performance with revenue up by 11% but net profit down by 54%, highlighting internal differentiation [4]. - Dairy products reported a revenue increase of 4% and a net profit increase of 47%, reflecting improved profitability [4]. - Condiments saw a revenue increase of 6% and a net profit increase of 9%, driven by falling costs [4]. - The restaurant supply chain faced a revenue increase of 3% but a profit decline of 14%, indicating weak consumer recovery and intensified competition [4]. - Processed meat products experienced a revenue decline of 14% and a net profit decline of 41%, with ongoing pressure on profitability [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a shift in the allocation of actively managed mixed equity funds towards the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hong Kong stocks, with increased investments in the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Allocation Analysis - As of June 30, 2025, actively managed mixed equity funds had a market value allocation of approximately 54.52% in the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards, a decrease of 6.22% from December 31, 2024 [1]. - The allocation in the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards was 31.55% and 22.97%, respectively, down by 2.70% and 3.51% compared to the end of 2024 [1]. - The allocation in the ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Hong Kong stocks increased to 15.38%, 14.26%, and 15.59%, respectively, with increases of 0.19%, 1.88%, and 3.99% [1]. Group 2: Holding Characteristics - As of June 30, 2025, the top 1% of stocks held by actively managed mixed equity funds accounted for approximately 30.06% of the total stock investment value, a slight decrease from 31.51% in the 2024 annual report, indicating a minor reduction in "herding" behavior [2]. - The top ten holdings included two consumer electronics stocks and two internet stocks, with the remaining six from sectors such as lithium batteries, liquor, home appliances, metal mining, optical modules, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. Group 3: Industry Configuration - The top five industries for actively managed mixed equity funds as of June 30, 2025, were electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric power equipment, automotive, and food and beverage [2]. - Excluding passive changes due to industry performance, the report highlights that funds actively increased their holdings in pharmaceuticals, electronics, media, and non-bank financial sectors, while significantly reducing their allocation in the electric power equipment sector [2]. Group 4: Turnover Rate Analysis - The overall turnover rate for actively managed mixed equity funds in the first half of 2025 was 140.81%, an increase of 12.15% compared to the second half of 2024 [3]. - Flexible mixed funds had the highest turnover rate at 157.08%, although this was a decrease from the previous period [3]. - In contrast, balanced mixed funds had a lower turnover rate of 125.23%, while the turnover rate for actively managed open-end equity funds increased by approximately 7.32%, marking the smallest increase among fund types [3].

报告导读： 科创债 / 信用债"囤券"的几点规律：现金 VS 现券，弹性 VS 静态，久期 VS 票息，哑铃 VS 子弹。 博弈信用债 / 科创债 ETF 的"囤券"——配置策略和节奏主要考虑 4 个问题：保留现金还是配置债券，寻求弹性还是静态，向久期还是信用下沉要收益，持 仓债券的期限结构是哑铃还是子弹。 复盘历史：（ 1 ）保留现金一般是信用债 ETF 申购规模扩张 / 配债不及时的短期现象，在行情偏弱时，选择持有现金 的概率也不高。（ 2 ）在目前的普遍低利率和低利差环境下，信用债 ETF 主动博取静态收益的性价比不高，选择此类策略一般是利率快速上行时期的权宜之 计，只要利率恢复震荡或开始有下行迹象，信用债 ETF 都会拉长久期寻求弹性策略。（ 3 ）大部分 ETF 产品上市后普遍倾向于快速提升久期，只有久期增 速减缓的阶段，基本上不存在久期缩短的阶段，其提升速度因市场环境而异，在利率行情较好时或快速主动提升久期。（ 4 ）信用评级根据环境变化动态适 配，高评级在债市走强或走弱阶段主导，或因为信用下沉在该阶段（债市偏强）性价比低于拉长久期，或因为在债市偏弱时为组合提供更高的流动性安全边 际。在债市震荡和 ...