国泰海通证券 国泰海通证券2026年度策略会 2025年11月4-6日 | 北京 中国大饭店 700 +上市公司 30 + 论坛 100 + 产业专家 多场特色会议、全领域研究阵容 | 2 12 34 2 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 11月4日 | 更新时间2025/10/20 | | | 09:00-11:50 主论坛 | | | | 13:30-17:00 | 13:30-16:30 | | | 总量分论坛 | 人形机器人 | | | 1 | | (2) | | 13:30-16:30 | 13:30-16:30 | | | Al 开花、科技自立 | AI 算力自主可控,超节点 | | | (3) | 加速演进 | (4) | | 13:30-17:00 | 13:30-16:30 | | | 文娱产业需求向上及 Al 技 | 智能投资,量化焕新—ETF | | | (5) 术共振望带来板块繁荣 | 与量化产品的新时代投资 | (6) | | 11月5日 | | | | 09:00-12:00 | 09:00-12:00 | | | 新消费与传统消费 | 重视配置的力量，从机构 ...

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】黄金多大空间：一个参考的数量模型 我们在《"不同寻常"的黄金牛市——全球货币变局研究二》中指出， 2022 年之后黄金由美元实际利率定价的框架已经不再成立。在全球百年未有之大变局 下，全球经济的分化、各国之间信任度变化带来趋势性的居民和官方配置黄金的需求，成为黄金价格上涨的重要推动力量。 本篇专题我们尝试构建黄金定价的数量模型 ， 基于扩展模型，我们分不同情形对于未来的金价进行了预测。 乐观情形 下 ，黄金价格或有望突破 3800 美元 / 盎司； 中性情形 下 ，黄金价格或达到 3200 美元 / 盎司左右； 悲观情形 下， 黄金价格或回落至 2600-2700 美元 / 盎司的区间。 不过数量化的黄金定价模式只能作为一个参考而已。 毕竟像我们前一篇专题中指出的，本轮黄金的牛市，主要不是经济因素驱动的，而是由非经济因素驱动 的。本轮黄金的牛市是各国之间信任度的下降、以及国际秩序的重构，全球货币体系的大变局带来的长期牛市。 风险提示： 全球央行购金速度不及预期，美联储货币政策超预期收紧，模型测算误差。 【策略】 回调即是增配良机 【海外策略】 以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent instability in the Sino-US trade environment has led to a valuation correction in certain stocks, resulting in a rise in market risk aversion. The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [1]. Market Overview - The market is anticipated to remain volatile in the short term. The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.57, higher than the previous week's 1.36, indicating current market liquidity is 1.57 times the average level over the past year [2]. - The put-call ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 1.07 from 0.85, reflecting heightened caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 1.42% and 1.93%, respectively, consistent with the trading activity levels since 2005 [2]. - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates showing weekly changes of -0.05% and 0.29%, respectively [2]. - In September, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly better than the previous -0.4%, but worse than the consensus expectation of -0.15%. The PPI was -2.3%, also better than the previous -2.9% but below the expected -2.4% [2]. - New RMB loans in September amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 1.39 trillion yuan but higher than the previous 590 billion yuan. M2 growth was 8.4%, below both the expected 8.51% and the previous 8.8% [2]. Technical Analysis - The SAR indicator for the Wind All A index broke downwards on October 17, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - The market score based on the moving average strength index is currently at 141, which is at the 49.9% percentile for 2023 [2]. - The sentiment model score is 2 out of 5, indicating moderate market sentiment, while the trend model signal is positive and the weighted model signal is negative [2]. Performance Summary - For the week of October 13-17, the SSE 50 index fell by 0.24%, the CSI 300 index dropped by 2.22%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 5.17%, and the ChiNext index declined by 5.71% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 22.0 times, which is at the 74.0% percentile since 2005 [3]. Industry Insights - The industry crowding levels are relatively high in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, power equipment, telecommunications, and electronics. The crowding levels in the steel and public utilities sectors have increased significantly [4].

报告导读： 海南离岛免税新政自 11 月 1 日 起实施，新政释放利好信号。频次放开 + 客 群新增 + 品类扩容，有望对 客流与客单 形成托底与弹性；短期驱动 销售企稳略回升 。 投资建议 ： 我们认为，新政释放利好，频次与客群上放大 —— 岛民 " 即购即提不限次 "+" 离岛且离境旅客 " 纳入，有望带动购物客群、到店频次与转化 率同步抬升；品类扩容至 47 类（无人机、数码影像、小家电、乐器等），有望提升高客单 / 高毛利占比，客单价与毛利率具备边际上行。 免税新政 ： 根据 2025 年 10 月 17 日财政部 海关总署 税务总局公告 2025 年第 9 号，海南离岛旅客免税购物新政策对免税品类、提货方式等作出新规 定，该政策于 2025 年 11 月 1 日起实施。 免税商品目录结构性优化 : 品类由原先 45 类增加到 47 类，新增宠物用品、可随身携带的乐器；同时把 " 空气净化器 " 并入小家电（含扫地 / 吸尘器 等）、把 " 穿戴设备 " 扩为电子消费产品（微型无人机、数码影像器材及配件等），平板类新增鼠标、键盘。 岛民消费更便捷： 一个自然年度内有离岛记录的岛内居民，在本自然年度内可 ...

报告导读： 成长优先，并重视低估值及长期成长确定性较强的传统消费龙头价值修复。中 秋国庆假期消费有所回暖，量价均有看点。白酒动销环比改善，表现符合节前预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 秋糖反馈平淡，重视成长标的；报告日期：2025.10.19 报告作者： 訾猛（分析师），登记编号：S0880513120002 徐洋（分析师），登记编号：S0880520120008 李美仪（分析师），登记编号：S0880524080002 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 投资建议： 饮料、零食、食品原料等成长标的业绩优势持续，白酒预期加速修正、部分出清。 成长标的仍具业绩优势，关注确定性标的价值修复。 人群变迁、 渠道裂变、品类创新之下新消费景 ...

报告导读： 十一节后热点主题交易热度降温，区域经济、红利与内需消费主题走强。聚焦 新兴科技与区域经济发展战略等核心主线。推荐：海南自贸 / 自主可控 / 机器人 /AI 应 用。 主题温度计：十一节后热点主题交易热度降温，区域经济、红利与内需消费主题走强。 上周热点主题日均成交额平均 9.69 亿元，日均换手率 3.6% ，相较 节前均明显回落。主题结构向非科技轮动，银行 / 煤炭等红利主题回升，黄酒 / 家纺 / 黄金珠宝等消费主题走强，海南 / 福建 / 长江经济带等区域经济主题 热度提升。消费电子 / 半导体 / 存储等科技主题跌幅居前。短期市场在外部冲击下风险偏好受压制，结构上科技主题存在获利盘兑现扰动，资金寻求均衡配 置，低位周期 / 消费 / 红利类主题成为资金选择。当前主题选择需关注"十五五规划"潜在受益方向，聚焦新兴科技与区域经济发展战略等核心主线。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 聚焦高水平对外开放与科技自主可控；报告日期：2025.10.19 报告作者： 方奕（分析师），登记编号：S0880520120005 苏徽（分析师），登记编号：S08805160800 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the ongoing developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, the response to the banking crisis, and the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, suggesting that if market risk aversion eases, precious metal prices may experience wide fluctuations [1][2]. Precious Metals - Market risk aversion is fluctuating, leading to expectations of short-term wide price swings for gold. Comex gold prices reached $4,392 per ounce and Shanghai gold prices hit 1,001 yuan per gram during the week [2]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated rising risks in the employment market and potential cessation of balance sheet reduction in the coming months. The banking sector is facing renewed challenges, which has heightened market risk aversion [2]. - Long-term, despite existing federal debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status, gold may continue to perform well amid a restructuring of the global monetary system [2]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to declining market risk appetite, but upcoming domestic meetings and renewed U.S.-China trade negotiations may improve macroeconomic sentiment [3]. - Supply-side disruptions, particularly in mining, and historically low inventory levels are expected to provide upward support for industrial metal prices [3]. - Despite insufficient demand during the peak season, the overall supply situation remains tight, suggesting potential for price increases in the medium to long term [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of Vietnam as a key investment destination for Chinese enterprises, highlighting its potential in the Southeast Asian market and the importance of fostering cooperation and exploring investment opportunities in the region [2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Vietnam Investment Forum" will be held on October 21, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on collaboration and investment opportunities in Vietnam [2]. - The forum will feature prominent speakers from various sectors, including finance, manufacturing, and law, to discuss the macroeconomic outlook and investment trends in Vietnam [2][3]. Group 2: Key Sessions and Topics - The forum will include sessions on topics such as: - Overview of China-ASEAN economic cooperation and Southeast Asia investment [3]. - Macroeconomic outlook and investment prospects in Vietnam [3]. - Trends in industrial facility leasing in Vietnam [3]. - Current status and trends of Chinese enterprises investing in Vietnam [3]. - Digital empowerment for global operations of Chinese enterprises [3]. - Opportunities and challenges in the snack retail market in Vietnam [3]. - A roundtable discussion on the rise of consumption and investment frontiers in Vietnam [3].

报告导读： 本文通过分析红利股与债券性价比、美债利率、信用与经济环境、行业景气度 等因素对红利风格的影响，构建其择时方案。 报告来源 我们认为，所谓风格，其实是由于各种原因，市场开始偏向具有某类特征或某个标签的股票。红利股具备高且稳定的分红收入，即类债属性，其特点是低波 动、抗跌与防御性。其长期持有者的目的大多为获取稳健收益，保险资金配置较多。 本文分析红利股与债券性价比、美债利率、信用与经济环境、行业景气度等因素对红利风格的影响，构建综合因子择时方案。 我们得出以下结论： （1） 红利股与债券之间存在相互替代关系，对比红利和债券的性价比，构建股息率 - 中债 10 年利差因子，其对红利风格具备较好的正向择时效果。 （2） 2016 年后，美债利率与红利风格的相关性很高。美债利率作为全球资产的定价锚，利率上行对高估值的成长股具有较强的压制，风格向低估值的红利 股偏移。 我们根据卡玛比率标准化、归一化后分级靠档分配各因子权重， 10 年期美债利率权重为 40% ；其余因子权重为 10% 。周频综合因子择时策略相对中证全 指年化超额 10% ，相对中证红利年化超额 4% 左右，正向与反向信号胜率均高于 55% ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates a significant acceleration in net profit growth for listed insurance companies in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by favorable investment returns and improved net assets, alongside strong growth in new business value (NBV) for life insurance and continued improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) for property insurance [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment Returns and Profit Growth - Investment returns are expected to remain strong, with a notable increase in net profit for listed insurance companies in Q3 2025, building on high growth from the same period in 2024 and further accelerating from the growth seen in H1 2025 [2] - The overall positive performance of the equity market and the optimization of asset structures by insurance companies are projected to significantly boost investment returns [2] Group 2: Life Insurance Sector Performance - The life insurance sector is experiencing a favorable growth environment, with premium growth driven by the strategic timing of new policy sales before interest rate cuts, and the bancassurance channel becoming a key contributor to value growth [2][3] - The multi-channel approach is expected to continue driving strong growth in NBV for listed life insurance companies [3] Group 3: Property Insurance Sector Outlook - Property insurance premiums are anticipated to grow slowly, with the ongoing reform in auto insurance and the "reporting and operation in one" directive for non-auto insurance leading to a shift towards quality and efficiency over mere scale [2] - Despite pressures from natural disasters like typhoons in Q3 2025, the expected improvement in risk management is likely to limit the negative impact on the COR [2]