Core Insights - The humanoid robotics industry is experiencing significant advancements, indicating a rapid commercialization of the sector [2] - The release of Figure03 marks a transition from experimental prototypes to deployable and scalable products [3] Group 1: Figure03 Release - Figure has officially launched the third-generation humanoid robot, Figure03, designed for Helix, home, and large-scale applications [2] - Figure03 features a completely redesigned sensory suite and hand system for advanced AI capabilities [2] - The robot includes new functionalities such as soft goods, wireless charging, improved audio systems, and enhanced battery safety for home use [2] - The design aims for mass production, supported by a new supply chain and manufacturing process established at BotQ [2] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Orders - Zhiyuan Robotics has secured a multi-billion yuan order for the Zhiyuan Spirit G2 robot framework, marking one of the largest orders in the domestic industrial embodied intelligence robotics sector [3] - The partnership with a leading global ODM company aims to deploy nearly a thousand robots, addressing industry challenges such as inflexible production lines and capacity fluctuations [3] - This collaboration sets a new benchmark for AI manufacturing with a focus on flexible reuse, rapid reconfiguration, and scalable replication [3]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term evolution of imports and exports is characterized by a slight decline in export momentum and a significant drop in year-on-year growth due to elevated baselines, alongside a rebound in import growth, which compresses trade surplus and highlights the importance of domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Export Dynamics - The current critical issue is how China's exports will perform during the strategic stalemate phase of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, especially after effectively countering U.S. trade barriers through tariffs and export controls [2]. - The impact of traditional U.S. trade barriers on China's exports is decreasing, while China's export controls have a minimal direct impact on its own exports but significantly affect other countries' industries [2][6]. - In September 2025, China's export growth rate in dollar terms was 8.3%, up from 4.4% previously, while import growth was 7.4%, up from 1.3% [6]. Group 2: Import Trends - The import growth rate has shown a significant seasonal rebound, indicating a potential impact on trade surplus in Q4 due to the recovery of import growth since July [2][6]. - The trade surplus has decreased, and the decline in growth rates for exports to ASEAN may be attributed to re-export regulations or a normal cooling off after a technical surge in August [6]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The long-term trend of "de-Americanization" in China's exports continues, with a sustained decline in export growth to the U.S. and re-export destinations, while maintaining high growth rates to other regions [6]. - The current export resilience is strong, with previously rushed orders being gradually digested, indicating that the impressive export performance has already accounted for the negative impacts of tariffs and order front-loading [6].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The overall upward trend in the equity market is expected to remain intact despite new developments in the US-China trade dispute, supported by three main factors: accelerated economic restructuring in China, enhanced capabilities to respond to complex environments, and continuous improvement in capital market institutional stability [2][3] - The convertible bond market has limited downside potential, and sharp declines may present buying opportunities, as the supply-demand dynamics are tight with insufficient new issuance and accelerated retirement of existing bonds [2][3] - Emphasis should be placed on individual bond selection and tactical trading due to the current high prices and valuations of convertible bonds, indicating limited systemic opportunities [2][3] Group 2: Structural Opportunities in Convertible Bonds - Focus on high-quality individual bonds with fully compressed conversion premiums, which may present value after valuation corrections [3] - Target convertible bonds from export chains that have been unfairly punished but have limited actual tariff impacts, especially those that have mitigated risks through overseas production [3] - Consider low-priced bonds with expectations of adjustments or terms that can act as stabilizers in a portfolio, particularly those with positive yield-to-maturity buying points during market corrections [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Since September 22, oil prices have been in a downward adjustment, with Brent crude at $62.09 as of October 10, influenced by OPEC's shift from cautious production cuts to accelerated increases to regain market share [7] - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has narrowed due to a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, which has significantly impacted oil prices [8] - The re-ignition of trade tensions, with the US planning to impose additional tariffs on China, has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, indicating potential volatility in the short term [9] Group 4: Aviation and Shipping Industry Trends - The domestic aviation market has seen a surge in travel demand during the long holiday, with ticket prices rising, indicating a potential for profitability growth in Q3 2025 [13] - Oil shipping rates experienced a temporary drop during the holiday but rebounded sharply afterward, with expectations for continued demand growth in the oil shipping sector [14] - China's countermeasures against US tariffs are expected to mitigate the impact on Chinese shipping companies, suggesting a potential stabilization in the shipping market [15] Group 5: Media and Entertainment Sector Performance - The gaming market continues to show strong performance, with Tencent and other major players maintaining top positions in mobile game revenues [20][21] - The film market during the National Day holiday showed a decline in box office performance, with total revenue down 13% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the film sector [22]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Guidelines for the Deployment and Application of Artificial Intelligence Large Models in the Government Sector" by the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission is expected to accelerate the implementation of AI in government applications in China [2][3]. Group 1: Guidelines Overview - The guidelines provide a framework for government departments to deploy AI large models, emphasizing the need for a unified approach to infrastructure and data governance [2][3]. - The guidelines advocate for a model reuse strategy to avoid isolated models and enhance data quality for effective AI training [2][3]. Group 2: Application Scenarios - Four high-frequency application scenarios are identified: government services, social governance, office administration, and decision support [3]. - Specific applications include intelligent Q&A, auxiliary processing, policy service delivery, smart monitoring, and emergency response [3]. Group 3: Market Potential - The guidelines highlight the broad market potential for AI in government applications, with a projected market size of 2.54 billion RMB in 2024 [3]. - The emphasis is on securing funding for AI deployment in the government sector and promoting the integration of domestic AI technologies [3].

管制政策系统化、全链条升级，有助于强化国内稀土定价权。 本次出口管制政策明显加码，将稀土出口管制环节扩大到海外转口和技术转移，海外企业即便 获得矿石，也将面临冶炼分离技术和含有中国成分的中间品的获取难题，有助于巩固中国在全产业链的竞争优势，进而强化稀土的全球定价权。 报告导读： 2025年10月9日，商务部发布《对稀土相关技术实施出口管制的决定》《境 外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定》等四项出口管制政策，稀土出口管制政策形成全 链条系统，国内稀土定价权再度强化，有望进一步催化板块行情。 投资建议：维持稀土行业"增持"评级。 2025年10月9日，商务部发布《对稀土相关技术实施出口管制的决定》、《境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定》等 四项出口管制政策，相较于4月出台的中重稀土出口管制政策，主要增量信息包括：管制对象扩大、管辖范围扩展至全球、管制环节扩展至境外的生产/转口/再 出口、将追溯制度延伸至海外等等。我们认为本次政策组合拳出台后，稀土出口管制政策形成全链条系统，国内稀土定价权再度强化，有望进一步催化板块行 情。 近期稀土价格窄幅波动，政策催化或持续。 近期氧化镨钕价格维持55-57万窄幅波动，部分磁材厂 ...

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 为什么特朗普政府的关税态度会出现如此快速的软化？美国为什么很难长期坚持对其他经济体的高关税政策？归根到底，是因为美国很难长时间逆着经济规律 做事情。 所以虽然关税政策短期有很大的不确定性，但是中长期来看，沿着经济规律演绎又是相对确定的。 本次关税再起波澜，我们认为政策的纠偏其实只是时间问题，对市场的影响预计会相对可控。 从宏观视角看，本次关税冲击和4月那次相比，我们认为也需要 考虑其他几方面因素：首先，市场是有"经验"和"记忆"的。其次，中国的应对经验更丰富。此外，当前的宏观信心和预期会更强一些。 所以总结来说，我们认为，外部因素的短期波动对国内的边际影响其实没有那么大，而真正需要关注的是国内经济、政策等因素的变化。只要我们继续坚持做 正确的事，就没什么好怕的。 风险提示： 全球地缘风险；美国政策的不确定风险；监管政策变化风险。 【宏观】胜人者有力，自胜者强 近期美国特朗普政府又开始酝酿对一些国家挑起关税摩擦，也引起市场诸多的关注。 我们认为对于外部环境变化不需要太悲观。就像我们在去年年度展望报 告当中提到的，"胜人者有力，自胜者强"，战胜别人看起来是有 ...

报告导读： 如何才能稳住房价呢？或者说，当什么变量发生变化的时候，可以判断房价 被稳住了？本文重点就这一问题进行探讨。 今年中国经济总量继续保持稳健增长，尤其是上半年GDP增速明显高于5.3%，超出之前的市场预期。 我们认为中长期来看，中国经济仍然具有巨大的增长潜 力。不过短期经济结构分化的现象依然存在，尤其是供给偏强、需求偏弱，数量偏强、价格偏弱，内需还需要进一步提振。而内需端的一个重要拖累项是房地 产，尽管房地产投资、销售占经济比重已经不高，但房地产在居民存量财富配置中的份额仍然很高，而居民消费的资金来源一靠收入，二靠财富。如果房价出 现调整，势必会对总需求构成压制。 关于房地产的趋势和影响，其实海外其他经济体有大量的经验可以参考 ，我们在2022年就系统的梳理了海外房地产的经验。当然我们也要考虑到中国独特的 制度优势，不能完全照搬海外的经验。但海外的一些教训，我们是可以回避的。那么如何才能稳住房价呢？或者说，当什么变量发生变化的时候，可以判断房 价被稳住了？本文重点就这一问题进行探讨。 风险提示： 全球地缘风险；美国政策的不确定风险；监管政策变化风险。 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH ...

Market Overview - Short-term market may experience adjustments due to high liquidity levels, with the liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index at 1.36, lower than the previous week's 1.86, indicating current market liquidity is 1.36 times the average level over the past year [1] - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF has decreased to 0.85 from 0.91, suggesting reduced caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [1] - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A are at 1.34% and 1.91%, respectively, maintaining trading activity levels consistent with the past [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates showing weekly declines of -0.06% and -0.17% respectively [1] - The official manufacturing PMI for China in September was reported at 49.8, slightly above the previous value of 49.4 but below the consensus expectation of 49.95; the S&P Global China Manufacturing PMI was at 51.2, up from 50.5 [1] Event-Driven Analysis - U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices reporting weekly returns of -2.73%, -2.43%, and -2.53% respectively, influenced by strong statements from former President Trump regarding potential tariff increases on imports [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce announced the implementation of export control measures on certain rare earth items and technologies, adding 14 foreign entities to a list of unreliable entities [2] Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke above the SAR indicator on September 11, indicating a potential upward trend [3] - The market score based on the moving average strength index is currently at 198, placing it in the 71.9% percentile for 2023 [3] - The sentiment model score is at 2 out of 5, indicating weak market sentiment, while the trend model signal is positive and the weighted model signal is negative [3] - The A-share market showed a downward trend last week, with the SSE 50 index down 0.47%, CSI 300 down 0.51%, and the ChiNext index down 3.86% [3] Factor Crowding Observation - The crowding degree for small-cap factors continues to decline, with a score of 0.08; low valuation factors at -0.31; high profitability factors at -0.18; and high growth factors at 0.19 [4] - Industry crowding degrees are relatively high in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, power equipment, comprehensive, communication, and electronics, with non-ferrous metals and steel showing significant increases [4]

Core Insights - The small nucleic acid drug industry is entering a new era with a focus on siRNA drugs for common diseases, driven by technological advancements and expanded indications [1][2] - siRNA drugs have transitioned from rare diseases to common diseases, showcasing strong commercial potential in areas like cardiovascular diseases, chronic hepatitis B, weight loss, anticoagulation, and autoimmune diseases [1][3] Group 1: Industry Trends - The small nucleic acid drugs represent the third wave of therapeutics, following small molecules and antibody drugs, characterized by strong target expansion capabilities, robust research extensibility, long-lasting effects, and low resistance [1][2] - The industry is witnessing a surge in business development (BD) transactions, particularly involving multinational corporations (MNCs) leveraging their understanding of indications to acquire pipelines or collaborate on technology platforms [2][3] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The maturation of the liver delivery system and the proven commercial value of small nucleic acid drugs are driving ongoing licensing transactions, as many pharmaceutical companies face patent cliffs and seek new products to mitigate pipeline risks [2][3] - Chinese companies are expected to play a significant role in this space, capitalizing on their engineering advantages and rapid iteration capabilities in chemical synthesis to differentiate their products [2][3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The current industrialization of siRNA drugs focuses on commercializing common diseases with clear biological mechanisms, where early movers can secure better commercial returns and collaboration opportunities [3] - The efficiency and specificity of the GalNac delivery system present significant opportunities for breakthroughs in new disease areas, particularly those previously challenging to target [3]

Core Insights - The style rotation model accurately predicted trends in Q3 2025, with signals favoring small-cap and growth stocks for Q4 2025 [1] - The industry rotation model showed positive excess returns in September, with a monthly return of 3.33% and an excess return of 2.43% relative to the benchmark [1] Style Rotation Model - For Q4 2025, the dual-driven rotation strategy indicates a comprehensive score of -1, predicting a preference for small-cap stocks [2] - The growth style is favored in Q4 2025, with a comprehensive score of -3 from the dual-driven rotation strategy [3] Industry Rotation Insights - In September, the composite factor strategy achieved an excess return of 2.43%, while the single-factor multi-strategy had an excess return of -1.02% [3] - For October, the recommended long positions in single-factor multi-strategy include the computer, communication, electronic, non-bank financial, and banking sectors [3] - The composite factor strategy recommends long positions in home appliances, non-ferrous metals, electronics, communication, and computers [3]