Core Viewpoint - The overseas CXO industry has shown resilience under macroeconomic pressure, with overall sentiment stabilizing as of Q3 2025. The recovery of domestic CXO is recommended as macro indicators such as interest rate cuts and investment financing improve [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Maintain an "overweight" rating, focusing on CXO companies with global competitive advantages and those in the innovative drug supply chain with improving profitability [2]. - Companies primarily generating domestic revenue are expected to gradually recover as innovative drugs expand internationally [2]. Group 2: Clinical CRO Insights - Clinical CROs are benefiting from increased investment in late-stage pipelines by pharmaceutical companies, leading to high visibility in orders and performance [3]. - IQVIA shows strong data with a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.15 and a 20% year-on-year increase in RFP flow, while cancellations have normalized to $2.2 billion from over $3 billion annually [3]. - Medpace is performing exceptionally well with a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.20 and a pre-backlog exceeding $3 billion, indicating high revenue visibility for 2026 [3]. Group 3: CDMO Insights - CDMOs are characterized by high certainty due to long-term contracts, making them less susceptible to short-term financing fluctuations [4]. - Lonza maintains stable performance with strategic long-term contracts and a structure where early-stage business constitutes only 10% of revenue, providing immunity to biotech financing volatility [4]. - Samsung Biologics continues to project revenue growth of 25%-30% for the year, with total contract amounts exceeding $20 billion, showcasing strong order reserves [4].

Core Viewpoint - The trading heat of hot themes has cooled down compared to October, with a differentiation in technology themes and a rebound in consumer blue chips. The focus is on new opportunities in domestic consumption and the new regional economic landscape, recommending sectors such as domestic consumption, Xinjiang infrastructure, AI applications, and robotics [1]. Group 1: Domestic Consumption - The State Council meeting emphasized enhancing supply-demand adaptability to unleash consumption potential, fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats. New demands are leading to new supplies, with emerging scenes in sports events, ice and snow tourism, and cultural performances [2]. - The "Su Super" effect has significantly driven consumption in Jiangsu, exceeding 38 billion yuan. The Northeast Super initiative aims to create a nationally influential football event brand [2]. - The consumption scale of ice and snow sports is projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth. Recommendations include sectors benefiting from consumption promotion and holiday policy optimization, such as tourism, duty-free, and hotels [2]. Group 2: Xinjiang Infrastructure - Xinjiang's development focuses on western openness, strategic positioning, energy resources, agricultural products, and national security. By 2025, Xinjiang plans to implement 500 key projects with a total investment of 3.47 trillion yuan, increasing the number of projects and annual investment compared to 2024 [3]. - Key projects include comprehensive transportation, efficient water resource utilization, and energy infrastructure, with a total investment of 1.21 trillion yuan in 186 projects. Additionally, 257 projects in oil and gas and clean coal utilization have a total investment of 2.22 trillion yuan [3]. - The aim is to establish a golden passage between Asia and Europe and a bridgehead for western openness, recommending investments in oil and gas extraction, power grids, and transportation infrastructure [3]. Group 3: AI Applications - Alibaba launched the "Qwen App," a personal AI assistant based on its Qwen model. The State Council issued guidelines to accelerate the cultivation and large-scale application of AI scenarios [4]. - The goal is to achieve over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals and agents by 2027, and over 90% by 2030. The focus is on model iteration, strong capital expenditure, and domestic production [4]. - Recommendations include investments in internet and financial applications, as well as data center power equipment and domestic computing under increased global computing investment [4]. Group 4: Robotics - Yushu Technology completed its IPO counseling report, and Xiaopeng Motors launched a new humanoid robot, IRON, featuring advanced design elements [5]. - Robotics applications are accelerating in industrial scenarios involving repetitive, heavy, and dangerous tasks, as well as personalized home and companionship settings [5]. - The industry is leveraging manufacturing supply chain advantages to build a technological and scalable foundation, with recommendations for investments in key components like dexterous hands, sensors, and lightweight materials [5].

Macro - The main economic indicators in October showed a decline, influenced by both short-term factors like the holiday schedule and high base effects from last year, as well as long-term pressures such as insufficient internal momentum and rising external uncertainties [3] - High-performing sectors like automotive and transportation equipment benefited from seasonal demand and infrastructure projects, while online consumption continued to grow steadily due to convenience and promotions [3] - Traditional consumption sectors and real estate-related areas showed weak demand, indicating a lack of growth momentum [3] - Continued implementation of existing policies and timely introduction of new measures are necessary to counteract internal and external pressures and promote a gradual economic recovery [3] Computer Industry - Alibaba launched the "Qianwen" app to compete with ChatGPT, marking a significant expansion of its AI strategy into consumer applications [5] - Baidu emphasized the value of AI applications at its annual conference, showcasing a range of self-developed hardware and AI products, including the Kunlun chip series and advanced AI models [9] - The IPO of domestic GPU company Muxi was approved, aiming to raise 3.904 billion yuan for the development of high-performance GPUs, highlighting the advancement of domestic chip technology [10] Metals Industry - Precious metals are experiencing a recovery trend as liquidity issues ease, with gold expected to regain upward momentum following the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown [14] - The aluminum sector is seeing price increases driven by supply-demand dynamics, with domestic production capacity utilization at 98.6% and low inventory levels supporting price growth [15] - The lithium sector is witnessing strong demand, with lithium prices rising significantly, while cobalt prices remain high due to tight raw material supply [16] Report Highlights - Service consumption is showing marginal improvement [18] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts [18] - Increased trading activity is observed, with the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation leading the market [18] - Focus on new domestic opportunities and technology themes is recommended [18] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from CPI catalysts [18]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the robust double-digit growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, highlighting the impressive performance of instant retail and the trend towards integrated service across platforms [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The total GMV for the Double Eleven event in 2025 is projected to reach 1,695 billion, reflecting a 14% growth compared to 2024 [1]. - Major platforms like Tmall and JD.com reported significant growth, with Tmall achieving its best growth in four years, driven by the 88VIP program and new business models [1]. - Instant retail showed remarkable growth, with GMV reaching 670 billion, marking a 138% increase year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Beauty Sector Insights - The beauty category across multiple platforms is expected to grow between 5-15% during the Double Eleven event, with Tmall's top 10 beauty brands remaining stable [2]. - Domestic brands like Proya and Winona are performing well, with Proya maintaining the top position in Tmall's beauty category [2]. - The high-end international brands are also seeing a recovery, with Estee Lauder and SK-II improving their rankings [2]. Group 3: Brand Performance Highlights - Brands such as RuYuchen and Shangmei have shown outstanding performance during the Double Eleven, with RuYuchen's Zhenjia achieving an 80% year-on-year increase in GMV [3]. - The brand management and e-commerce operations of Kangwang and Aveeno also reported significant growth, with GMV increasing by 50% and 242% respectively [3]. - The overall sales for brands like Anmin and Jiyuan have seen substantial increases, with Anmin's total sales up by 208% [3].

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证券期 货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、控制投资 风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚 歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 退市渠道：美股最多元化，港股、A股相对单一 。 美股以主动退市为主，强制转板渠道畅通。1975-2012年间并购退市占比56.3%，其他自愿退市占41.1%，强 制退市仅2.5%；同时设顺畅转板机制和OTC市场，为投资者保留退出通道。港股强制退市近年成主导，但私有化稳步提升。2018年"快速除牌"机制后，19-24 年强制退市占比均值58.5%，明显高于00-18年的19.3%；私有化作为重要自愿退市方式，2025年占比提升至41.8%。A股强制退市占主导，但"应退进退"下主动 退市望增加。12年以来，退市制度多次改革，强制退市占比不断提升，13-24年均值87.9%，高于00-12年的68.9%；主动退市占比低但政策推动下快速增长， 从2023年1 ...

报告导读： 受益于美国政府停摆的接近结束，美国货币市场流动性压力缓解，黄金的短期 压力解除。中期来看，美联储2025年12月以及2026年的降息支撑黄金价格的强势。 维持贵金属行业"增持"评级。 在去美元化的长期背景下，黄金作为金属货币的地位逐渐上升。美国降息周期带来的美国流动性宽松，或带来弱势美元，同时 各国央行购金行为持续性较强，黄金中长期价格存在支撑。 李鹏飞(分析师)，登记编号：S0880519080003 魏雨迪(分析师)，登记编号：S0880520010002 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证券期 货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、控制投资 风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚 歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 美国流动性危机缓解，黄金短期压制因素解除。 10月以来美国政府关门期间，美国财政支出下行而美债的发行持续，美国财政部账户（TGA）余额大幅增 加。这使得美国货币市场的流动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in market themes, highlighting a cooling in trading activity since October, with a focus on the differentiation within technology themes and a rebound in consumer blue-chip stocks [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Average daily trading volume for hot themes is 800 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.55%, indicating a decline since early November [1] - Technology themes show internal differentiation, with lithium battery materials like electrolyte and diaphragm experiencing significant gains, while sectors like PCB and optical modules have seen pullbacks [1] - Non-technology themes are gaining attention, particularly low-priced blue-chip stocks and sectors like liquor and finance, which have attracted net inflows [1] Group 2: Domestic Consumption - The State Council emphasizes enhancing supply-demand adaptability to unleash consumption potential, fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats [2] - New demand is driving new supply, with emerging consumption scenes in sports events, ice and snow tourism, and cultural performances, leading to over 38 billion yuan in consumption in Jiangsu [2] - The ice and snow sports consumption scale is projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [2] Group 3: Infrastructure in Xinjiang - Xinjiang's development focuses on western openness, strategic positioning, energy resources, and agricultural products, with plans for 500 key projects by 2025, totaling an investment of 3.47 trillion yuan [3] - The annual investment plan is set at 406.9 billion yuan, with a 70-project increase and over 56 billion yuan in additional investment compared to 2024 [3] - Key projects include comprehensive transportation, efficient water resource utilization, and energy systems, with a total investment of 1.21 trillion yuan in transportation and 2.22 trillion yuan in energy projects [3] Group 4: AI Applications - Alibaba has launched a personal AI assistant based on the Qwen model, aligning with government initiatives to accelerate the cultivation of high-value AI application scenarios [4] - The government aims for over 70% penetration of new-generation smart terminals and intelligent agents by 2027, and over 90% by 2030 [4] - Recommendations include investments in internet, finance, and gaming sectors, as well as data center power equipment and domestic computing capabilities [4] Group 5: Robotics - Companies like Yushutech and XPeng Motors are advancing in the robotics sector, with new product launches and IPO preparations [4] - Robotics applications are expanding in industrial settings for tasks like handling and inspection, as well as in personalized home and companionship scenarios [4] - The industry is leveraging manufacturing supply chain advantages to build a foundation for technology and scale, with a focus on key components like sensors and lightweight materials [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in the upcoming week, despite the recent decline in major indices, as the strength index did not show significant downward movement, indicating a divergence in trends [1][2]. Market Overview - The liquidity shock index for the CSI 300 was 0.67, higher than the previous week's 0.40, suggesting current market liquidity is 0.67 standard deviations above the average of the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF decreased to 1.04 from 1.22, indicating reduced caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 1.27% and 1.91%, respectively, reflecting a decline in trading activity, positioned at the 75.55% and 81.44% percentiles since 2005 [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates increased by 0.31% and 0.35% respectively over the past week [2]. - October's CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of -0.3% and the consensus expectation of -0.04%. The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, better than the previous -2.3% and the expected -2.28% [2]. - New RMB loans in October totaled 220 billion, falling short of the expected 459.98 billion and the previous 1.29 trillion. M2 growth was 8.2% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 8.04% but lower than the previous 8.4% [2]. Calendar Effects - Historical data from 2005 indicates that major indices such as the SSE Composite, CSI 300, and others have shown poor performance in the latter half of November, with average declines of -0.61% to -0.9% [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke above the reversal indicator on October 27, indicating a potential upward trend [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 218, placing it at the 79.2% percentile for 2023 [2]. - The sentiment model score is 3 out of 5, with both trend and weighted models signaling a positive outlook [2]. Factor Crowding - The factor crowding levels remain stable, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.37, low valuation factor at -0.25, high profitability factor at -0.18, and high growth factor at 0.08 [3]. Industry Crowding - Industries such as non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, telecommunications, electric equipment, and steel show relatively high crowding levels, while basic chemicals and banking have seen a significant increase in crowding [4].

Core Insights - Recent months have seen weak credit performance from both enterprises and households, with the central bank downplaying the focus on loan quantity targets [1] - The pressure to meet annual economic targets is easing, shifting policy focus towards the implementation and observation of existing tools rather than urgent new stimulus [1] - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to gradually support enterprise loans, while the Ministry of Finance has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments to stabilize social financing in the last two months of the year [1] Group 1 - The central bank has indicated a reduced emphasis on loan quantity targets, suggesting that social financing and monetary indicators will be used to gauge policy effectiveness [1] - Despite low credit growth, social financing and monetary growth rates remain stable, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] - The urgency for new incremental stimulus measures is decreasing, with expectations for further policy deployment in the coming year [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to next year, continued monetary policy easing is necessary to improve demand and price expectations, with room for further adjustments in mortgage rates, deposit rates, and policy rates [2] - As of the end of September, the weighted average interest rate for new personal mortgages has only decreased by 3 basis points to 3.06%, highlighting the need for further reductions in both existing and new mortgage rates due to ongoing pressures in the real estate sector [2]

行业观点及投资建议。 重视 NAND Flash 长远产业趋势， SSD 市值有望快速超越 HDD ，存储进入超级大周期。原厂产能结构性转移至服务器市场， mobile 、 PC 供应已受到影响，消费类 NAND 价差有望快速实现和企业级拉平，消费买方市场更多为存储价格的被动接受者，后续有望贡献高于企业级存 储的价格弹性。此外，近期 NOR Flash 大容量需求增加，开启报价大幅提升。给予行业"增持"评级。 NAND Flash 产业需求攀升并非短暂市场波动，而是 AI 应用下长远产业趋势；原厂资本开支战略保守， 2026E 供不应求确定性高。 AI 推理应用快速推升实 时存取、高速处理海量数据的需求，促使 HDD 与 SSD 供应商积极扩大供给大容量存储产品。 NAND Flash 通过 3D 堆栈技术的演进，产能提升速度远快于 HDD 。由于 HDD 市场正面临巨大供应缺口， NAND Flash 原厂加速技术转进，我们认为下游客户有望新增更多 NAND Flash 对应的 eSSD 订单， SSD 市值有望快速超越 HDD 。此次 NAND Flash 产业需求爆发主要受 AI 对储存容量需求的急速攀 ...