Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand has decreased, with apparent consumption of five major steel products at 7.5143 million tons, down 1.5339 million tons week-on-week; total inventory rose to 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 84.27%, a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a marginal decline in demand due to the National Day holiday [2]. - Despite the recent decline, the steel demand is expected to gradually recover as the industry is still in the traditional peak season [2]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 167.1 CNY, up 24.3 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 112.1 CNY, an increase of 29.3 CNY [3]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 56.28%, down 0.43% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in overall profitability [3]. - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 140.25 million tons, an increase of 242,200 tons, suggesting a potential easing in iron ore prices and improvement in cost factors for the steel industry [3]. Future Outlook - The demand for steel is expected to stabilize, with a reduced negative impact from the real estate sector and steady growth anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing [4]. - The steel industry is experiencing a market-driven supply adjustment, with over 40% of steel companies currently operating at a loss [4]. - Recent policy proposals aim to continue production cuts and promote the exit of inefficient capacities, supporting a balanced supply-demand dynamic [4]. - Long-term trends indicate that industry concentration will increase, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages, especially under stricter environmental regulations [4].

报告导读： 双 11 周期再度延长，多平台简化活动规则，缩短购买决策流程，关注板块催 化旺季强产品势能、强品牌心智企业表现。 投资建议： 双十一大促通常有利于品牌势能放大 。 平台：周期延长、规则简化、补贴力度加大。 从活动周期看， 25 年双十一较 24 年提前开始，其中抖音、京东 10 月 9 日抢跑，小红书紧随其后，天猫 10 月 14 日开始与去年一致。从活动规则看，我们发现各平台宣传时不再突出"绝对低价"，主要通过简化优惠规则 + 直接补贴消费者，优化购物体验、加速购 买决策转化，除京东保留跨店满 300 减 50 外，其余平台多采用官方立减 15% 起，同时通过平台红包及消费券直接补贴消费者。 品牌超头合作上，超高端外资与头部国货增加上播 SKU 。 截至 10 月 12 日所有女生小程序预告，在天猫超头李佳琦双 11 超级美妆节（ 10 月 15 日）期 间，上播产品数量居前的品牌较去年基本一致， TOP3 欧莱雅、珀莱雅、雅诗兰黛分别上播 23 、 16 、 14 个，较去年变动 0 、 +1 、 -2 个，其余国际 品牌如兰蔻、 OLAY 、赫莲娜上播产品数量同比均有下降；超高端品牌如海蓝之 ...

Core Viewpoint - After the holiday, foreign and financing funds have returned to the Chinese market, with a notable increase in trading activity and a preference for technology and cyclical sectors, particularly electronics and non-ferrous metals [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Activity - Market sentiment has significantly improved, with average daily trading volume rising to 2.6 billion and the average number of stocks hitting the daily limit up to 71.6 [3]. - The proportion of stocks that increased in value has risen to 54.1%, with the median weekly return for all A-shares increasing to 0.4% [3]. - Industry trading concentration has continued to rise, with 11 industries having turnover rates in the historical top 10% [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows - After the holiday, foreign capital inflow reached 3.0 billion USD, with northbound trading accounting for 30.5% of total trading volume [4]. - Public funds saw a decrease in new issuance to 870 million, while private fund confidence slightly declined, nearing the highest levels of the year [4]. - The net inflow of ETF funds totaled 37.7 billion over the past four trading days, maintaining a high level of passive trading [4]. Group 3: Sector Preferences - Foreign capital has shown a strong preference for electronics (+3.47 billion) and non-ferrous metals (+2.04 billion), while sectors like household appliances and banks experienced outflows [5]. - Financing activities also favored electronics (+10.85 billion) and non-ferrous metals (+6.58 billion), with a slight outflow in the comprehensive sector [5]. - The top sectors for ETF inflows included non-bank financials (+3.74 billion) and power equipment (+2.89 billion), while communication and computing sectors saw outflows [5]. Group 4: Hong Kong and Global Fund Flows - Southbound capital inflow decreased to 2.65 billion, marking a significant drop since 2022 [6]. - Global capital flows indicate a marginal inflow into developed markets, with the US and China receiving the most inflows [6]. - The overall trend shows a preference for North American funds, particularly in pharmaceuticals and financial sectors, while technology funds experienced outflows [6].

风险提示： 部分指标为测算值，美联储降息快于预期，特朗普政策不确定性。 报告来源 报告导读： 上周全球市场普遍下挫，发达市场跌幅更大，或受中美关税冲突升级冲击。资 金面上，美联储政策分歧依旧，市场预期美联储年内或再降息 2 次左右。基本面上，上周 主要市场预期普遍回落，全球股市盈利预期多数下修。 市场表现：上周发达市场跌幅更大。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 -1.7% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 -1.9% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 -0.2% 。债市方面，日本 10Y 国债 利率大幅上升。大宗方面，黄金继续上涨，铜价涨幅靠后。汇率方面，美元升，英镑贬，日元贬，人民币贬。分板块看，上周欧美与港股信息技术 & 可选消 费板块大幅回调，日股逆势上涨。 交投情绪：上周全球成交普遍走弱， VIX 指数快速抬升。 从成交看，上周恒指、标普 500 、欧洲 Stoxx50 、韩国 Kospi200 成交下降，日经 225 成交上 升。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比上升、处历史偏高位，美股投资者情绪上升、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、美股、欧股、日股波动率上 升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周下降 ...

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【固收】 避险潮下，海外债资产如何选择 美国政府"停摆"进入第三天叠加总统对华关税威胁，全球债市避险情绪急剧升温，成为过去一周核心驱动。 美联储官员Miran表示当前债市平静支持加速降 息，但政府数据发布受阻增加政策不确定性。国际清算银行与英国央行联合上调主权债务风险预警，特别点名法国与日本财政改革僵局，穆迪强调贸易壁垒与 关税政策对新兴市场的外溢风险。特朗普10月10日威胁大规模加征对华关税瞬间点燃避险情绪，资金快速涌入美债等安全资产，推动10年期美债收益率降至 数周低点。政府"停摆"与地缘风险形成叠加效应，巩固了全球债市的避险交易主线。 全球主要国债收益率全线下行，美债曲线中长端陡峭化最为显著。10年期与30年期美债收益率分别下行6.2与7个基点，2年期与10年期利差维持52.8个基 点，TED利差收窄至-0.048%显示银行间流动性改善。 欧洲主权债同步受益避险情绪，德国10年期国债下行7个基点至2.63%，英国金边债长端因财政担忧 上行至5.49%。日本国债走势分化，10年期JGB微升2.2个基点至1.70%，短端受央行宽松预期压制下行。信用利差 ...

报告导读： 3Q25 ，土地收储新增规划减少，但实际到位资金提速，展望后续资金的进一 步落地。 投资建议：维持"增持"评级。 考虑4Q进入高基数期，我们认为维稳要求及四中背景下，政策逻辑依旧明显。建议关注城市更新和收储等政策落地情况。 3Q25新增土地收储规划减少，规模扩张节奏放缓，累计拟收储金额突破6100亿元。 根据中指数据，截至 3Q25 ，全国各地拟使用专项债收购闲置土地共 4687 宗，对应拟收储面积 2.5 亿平方米，合计拟收储金额约 6145 亿元，其中， 3Q25 新增拟收储金额 1318 亿元，环比下滑 58.4% 。从各省市表现 看，累计收储规模 TOP3 的分别为浙江（ 843 亿元）、广东（ 740 亿元）和重庆（ 505 亿元）。从被收购地块的特征上看，与上半年保持一致，即：一方 面，"新地块"占比依旧维持高位，拿地时间在 2020~2024 年的地块占比为 78.5% ，其中 2021~2023 年的占比为 61.2% ；另一方面，折价率（收储价 / 成交价）均值为 0.8 ，各折价段 0.9~1 、 0.8~0.9 、 0.7~0.8 、 0.5~0.7 、 0.5 以下的占比分 ...

图1曲止存 国泰海通证券2026年度策略会 2025年11月4-6日 | 北京 中国大饭店 . · 2 60 r . e . . . . 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of Shanghai in the global economic landscape, particularly in the context of offshore financial center development and the acceleration of RMB internationalization [2][4]. Group 1: Offshore Financial Center Development - The article discusses the collaborative efforts of various institutions, including regulatory bodies, academia, and industry, to address the challenges of building an offshore financial center in Shanghai [4]. - It highlights the need for theoretical analysis, international benchmarking, policy design discussions, and practical exploration to overcome development bottlenecks and unleash institutional innovation dividends [4]. Group 2: Event Overview - The event includes a series of discussions featuring prominent speakers from regulatory, academic, and practical perspectives, focusing on strategic thoughts, theoretical logic, current status, and international experiences related to offshore financial centers [5]. - Key topics include regulatory perspectives on Shanghai's offshore financial center strategy, theoretical insights into offshore financial centers, policy research on current development and investment opportunities, and practical analysis from banking perspectives [5].

Core Insights - Global equity markets faced overall pressure, with significant performance divergence, particularly in Asia where Japanese and Korean markets excelled [1][2] - Precious metals, especially gold and silver, reached new highs, while oil prices declined [1][4] - The bond market showed a "bull steep" trend in China, while US bonds exhibited a "bull flat" trend, indicating differing yield curve behaviors [3] Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The MSCI global index fell by 1.3%, with developed markets underperforming compared to emerging markets, particularly in Asia [2] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 7.0%, reaching a new high, driven by a weaker yen and optimistic policy expectations [2] - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Wande All A index down by 0.4%, while the KOSPI and KOSDAQ in South Korea rose by 5.4% and 2.1%, respectively [2] Group 2: Commodity and Currency Trends - The COMEX silver and gold prices increased significantly, with silver up over 60% and gold over 50% year-to-date [1][4] - The South China commodity index and CRB commodity index rose by 0.2% and 2.0%, respectively, with most major commodities showing gains except for WTI and Brent crude [4] - The US dollar index increased by 1%, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 2.2% against the dollar [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - In China, the yield curve showed a downward trend overall, with the long end (20-30 years) rising, indicating a "bull steep" characteristic [3] - The US bond market also saw a downward shift in the yield curve, with a narrowing 10Y-2Y spread, reflecting a "bull flat" trend [3] - As of October 12, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October rose to 98.3%, with expectations for two rate cuts within the year [3]

Core Insights - The humanoid robotics industry is experiencing significant advancements, indicating a rapid commercialization of the sector [2] - The release of Figure03 marks a transition from experimental prototypes to deployable and scalable products [3] Group 1: Figure03 Release - Figure has officially launched the third-generation humanoid robot, Figure03, designed for Helix, home, and large-scale applications [2] - Figure03 features a completely redesigned sensory suite and hand system for advanced AI capabilities [2] - The robot includes new functionalities such as soft goods, wireless charging, improved audio systems, and enhanced battery safety for home use [2] - The design aims for mass production, supported by a new supply chain and manufacturing process established at BotQ [2] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Orders - Zhiyuan Robotics has secured a multi-billion yuan order for the Zhiyuan Spirit G2 robot framework, marking one of the largest orders in the domestic industrial embodied intelligence robotics sector [3] - The partnership with a leading global ODM company aims to deploy nearly a thousand robots, addressing industry challenges such as inflexible production lines and capacity fluctuations [3] - This collaboration sets a new benchmark for AI manufacturing with a focus on flexible reuse, rapid reconfiguration, and scalable replication [3]