Core Insights - The A-share market has shown a slow bull trend in September, with the effects of anti-involution policies reflected in the August PPI data, leading to continued increases in major broad-based indices [1] Fund Investment Strategy - In September, the manufacturing PMI was at 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the average of the past three years for the same period, indicating seasonal growth [2] - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with market adjustments presenting opportunities; A/H shares are anticipated to reach new highs [2] - Emerging technology remains a key investment theme, with new industries entering a new capital expenditure expansion cycle; financial sector allocations are recommended due to potential dividend returns after adjustments [2] - The shift in economic governance thinking behind anti-involution policies is expected to improve the supply-demand balance for cyclical goods [2] - Hong Kong's technology and pharmaceutical sectors are likely to continue their recovery [2] - For 2024, both value and growth styles are expected to present structural investment opportunities, suggesting a balanced fund allocation with a slight tilt towards growth [2] Bond Fund Strategy - The bond market is likely entering a stabilization phase in October, with recommendations to focus on flexible duration rate bonds and high-grade, high-liquidity credit bonds [2] - As equity markets recover, fixed income plus funds are also seen as having certain allocation value [2] QDII and Commodity Funds - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, improved macro liquidity and lower real interest rates are expected to reduce the cost of holding gold, supporting its price performance [3] - While U.S. economic growth is slowing, it remains resilient, and the Fed's "preventive" monetary policy adjustments are expected to maintain a positive economic trend, supporting stable liquidity in U.S. stocks [3] - From an asset allocation perspective, U.S. stocks are seen as having a favorable risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [3]

报告导读： Figure AI 推出新一代 Figure 03 ，依托于 Helix 系统，侧重家庭场景落地， 并为规模化生产做了设计准备，看好其后续场景落地与量产进度。 投资建议： Figure AI 推出新一代 Figure 03 ，依托于 Helix 系统，侧重家庭场景下多种任务处理，并为规模化生产做了设计准备， Figure AI 的 BotQ 工 厂第一代产线当前年产能 12,000 台，四年内目标实现总计 10 万台机器人产量。 Figure 03 展示家庭应用场景，场景泛化加速落地。 Figure AI 最新视频侧重 Figure 03 家庭场景展示。具体看，家庭场景下工作可分为三种： 1 ）家务情 景中， Figure 03 可做整理沙发桌椅、准备茶歇、浇花、洗衣服、打扫卫生（刷碗、擦桌子）等工作，这依托于其 Helix 系统的长链任务处理能力； 2 ）物 品分类情景下， Figure 03 能够将盘子、杯子归类，归类超市购物后的蔬菜等物品，叠衣服，其物品识别分拣、柔性物品抓取能力成熟； 3 ）交互情景： Figure 03 机器人可与宠物狗玩抛接球游戏，在动态生物识别交互上有进展。除家庭场景 ...

报告导读： 美国众议院的中美战略竞争特别委员会出具报告，详细阐述制裁的现状并提出 新的建议，以遏制我国半导体产业的发展。我们认为优秀的半导体设备公司肩负着突破先 进制程节点技术的重任，虽任重道远，但我们看好相关公司能不断实现突破、不断成长。 投资建议。 美国众议院"中美战略竞争特别委员会"出具一份对中国半导体战略的系统性"围堵"建议书，核心逻辑是中国半导体产业的崛起威胁美国国家安全 与全球技术主导地位，报告建议通过出口管制、技术封锁、产业补贴等手段，确保美国及其盟友在全球半导体产业链中的主导地位，从而遏制半导体崛起。我 们认为半导体产业的全球化仍然是不变的追求，但美国政府不断打压限制我国集成电路产业的发展，本土优秀的半导体装备企业肩负着核心设备突破的重任， 虽然目前在先进制程节点领域仍任重道远，但伴随关键技术的不断攻克以及先进产线对机台的不断验证、迭代，我们看好优秀的半导体前道设备及零部件企业 不断成长。 国产替代空间依然巨大。 特别委员会对 AMAT 、 ASML 、 KLA 、 LAM 、 TEL 5 家半导体设备企业进行调查，这 5 家公司预估占据全球半导体设备 80%-85% 的市场份额，调查指出 2 ...

需求侧:十五五期间交通类项目开工对水泥需求有明 显拉动作用的项目，以中吉乌铁路为例，根据我们测 算,吉国段 + 中国段合计水泥总需求约 454-640 万吨, 年化水泥需求 81-114 万吨。供给侧:受益干新疆"三 山夹两盆"和绿洲经济的地域特征,疆内外跨区水泥 流动显著低于其他区域,错峰执行效果领先全国,行 业低谷新疆水泥价格领跑全国。需求提振利好疆内水 泥企业产能利用率提升,推荐布局新疆水泥龙头企业。 每月一图图 2025 / 10/ 9 新疆区域水泥价格 99 66 新疆水泥:供给格局 稳固,铁路需求加速 国泰海通建材:鲍雁辛、杨冬庭、巫恺洋等 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTHT ...

专题1："不同寻常"的黄金牛市（2025/2/9） 本篇是我们《全球货币变局》系列专题的第二篇。在第一篇专题中，我们详细介绍了货币的本质和进化历史，得出结论：一种货币之所以能够成为人们认可的 货币，其本身是否有内在价值并不重要，到底是由中心化的主体发行、还是非中心化的主体形成也不重要，最关键的是这种货币能否成为"社会共识"的"记账 工具"，而社会共识的形成主要是源于人们对货币保持相对稀缺性的信任。所以法定纸币主要依靠政府的信用背书，由政府来保证纸币的相对稀缺性。 但经济面临下行压力的时候，纸币的超发是经常会发生的。所以人们往往会寻求信用更强的货币来对冲本币的贬值压力。而黄金是其中一个非常重要的货币， 所以过去黄金和纸币的基本面之间表现出较强的负相关关系。 但从2022年以来，黄金和纸币超发的对应关系逐步失灵了。那么这种对应关系为何会失灵？黄金的定价框架有何变化？本轮黄金的牛市有何不同？ 本篇专题 我们将延续前面对货币本质的讨论，重点聚焦黄金定价框架的历史性变化。 风险提示： 全球地缘风险；全球经济变化。 专题2：黄金多大空间：一个参考的数量模型（2025/3/28） 我们在 《"不同寻常"的黄金牛市——全球货 ...

Core Insights - The holiday economy shows a steady increase, with a daily average of 154 million people traveling across regions during the first five days of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - There is a notable increase in outbound and overseas travel flights, exceeding 12% [1] - Consumer spending is driven by two main themes: "cost-performance ratio" and "emotional value" [1] Travel and Tourism - Strong demand for homecoming and tourism travel is observed [1] - Different provinces and cities show growth in tourist reception and tourism revenue, although the growth rates vary significantly [1] - Movie consumption remains subdued, influenced by film quality, with ticket prices continuing to decline [1] Consumer Goods - The automotive sector performs well due to the impending expiration of subsidies and the launch of new models [1] - Home appliance consumption is affected by high base disturbances, but smart and green categories show strong performance [1] Real Estate and Land Market - Real estate sales see a holiday decline, with year-on-year variations due to base disturbances [1] - The land market remains relatively cold [1] Economic Indicators - Infrastructure investment is ramping up, with the issuance of special bonds at the fastest pace in recent years [1] - Post-holiday restocking drives accelerated port operations [1] - Production slows down before the holiday, while consumer goods prices show significant increases, particularly in food and beverages [1] - Industrial product prices experience a slight decline [1] - Liquidity remains ample, with the US dollar index returning above 98 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes prioritizing growth while focusing on undervalued traditional consumer leaders with strong long-term growth certainty, highlighting a recovery in consumption during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with both volume and price showing positive trends [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The performance advantages of growth targets in beverages, snacks, and food raw materials continue, while expectations for liquor are being revised upward, with some clearing out of inventory [2]. - The consumer landscape is evolving with demographic changes, channel fragmentation, and category innovation, sustaining new consumption trends, particularly in the beverage, snack, and food raw material sectors, which exhibit structural growth characteristics and comparative performance advantages [2]. - During the holiday period, travel volume exceeded expectations, and retail dining showed promising signs, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in travel volume during the first six days of the holiday, and key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin experiencing a rise in both volume and price [2]. Group 2: Liquor Market Insights - Demand for liquor improved during the peak season, aligning with expectations, with an estimated year-on-year decline of about 20% in liquor sales during the dual holiday period, consistent with pre-holiday forecasts [3]. - High-end liquor benefited from demand driven by gifting scenarios and price reductions, showing significant improvement in sales volume, while mid-range liquor saw better performance due to improved banquet scenarios and price reductions [3]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in industry confidence as external pressures ease and economic activity expectations improve, with potential adjustments in sector reports expected by Q3 2025 [3]. Group 3: Consumer Goods Outlook - Growth remains the main theme, with beverage leaders maintaining structural prosperity driven by major products, while companies in food raw materials and health products are expected to sustain high growth or accelerate sequentially [3]. - The snack sector continues to show growth potential through category and channel innovation, while traditional consumer leaders like China Foods exhibit both long-term growth certainty and low valuations, presenting opportunities for value recovery [3].

Core Insights - OpenAI aims to establish ChatGPT as the "AI operating system" and a foundational infrastructure entry point in the AI era through a strategy of "entry + ecosystem" [1][2] Group 1: Product Developments - OpenAI's annual developer conference, DevDay, showcased significant product updates, including the new AI model GPT-5 Pro and the AgentKit platform for building AI agents [2][3] - ChatGPT has reached 800 million weekly active users, with 4 million developers utilizing OpenAI for their projects, and the API processes over 6 billion tokens per minute [2] Group 2: Apps SDK and AgentKit - The newly launched Apps SDK allows developers to create interactive applications within ChatGPT, enhancing user experience through context-aware interactions [3] - AgentKit is introduced as a user-friendly agent development toolkit, featuring a visual canvas for designing workflows without extensive coding, and includes components for integrating branded chat interfaces [4] Group 3: Competitive Edge - OpenAI emphasizes the importance of context understanding as a core competitive advantage for LLMs, enabling seamless integration of various applications within conversations [3] - The AgentKit's features, such as data set construction and automated prompt optimization, allow developers to fine-tune workflows and improve agent performance [4]

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【金工】大类资产及择时观点月报 大类资产 4季度配置信号： 根据 2025年9月底的最新数据，信用利差和期限利差均发出收窄信号，Q4宏观环境预测结果为Imnflation。 行业复合趋势因子组合表现及信号： 2015年1月至2025年9月，行业复合趋势因子组合的累积收益为122.66%,超额收益为48.42%上月（2025年9月）因子 信号为正向，Wind全A当月收益率为2.80%。根据2025年9月底的最新数据，行业复合趋势因子为-0.30出现下滑，但依旧维持正向信号。 风险提示： 模型失效风险、因于失效风险、海外市场波动风险， 【电子】自强，先进制程设备的突破是核心 投资建议： 美国众议院"中美战略竞争特别委员会"出具一份对中国半导体战略的系统性"围堵"建议书，核心逻辑是中国半导体产业的崛起威胁美国国家安全 与全球技术主导地位，报告建议通过出口管制、技术封锁、产业补贴等手段，确保美国及其盟友在全球半导体产业链中的主导地位，从而遏制半导体崛起。我 们认为半导体产业的全球化仍然是不变的追求，但美国政府不断打压限制我国集成电路产业的发展，本土优秀的半导体装 ...

Core Insights - OpenAI collaborates with Nvidia and AMD to establish a 10 GW and 6 GW computing power partnership, enhancing the AI ecosystem and promoting full-stack development [1][2] - The AI sector is witnessing significant investments, with $10 billion raised by xAI and Nvidia planning to invest $100 billion in AI infrastructure [2] - The financial technology sector is focusing on payment solutions, automotive finance, and digital assets, with companies like Lakala and Yixin enhancing their AI capabilities [3] Group 1: AI Development and Infrastructure - OpenAI's introduction of GPT-5-Codex enables autonomous completion of complex engineering tasks, while Sora2 aims to create a "generate-consume-interact" closed-loop ecosystem [2] - Nvidia and Fujitsu are collaborating to integrate Fujitsu's 2nm "MONAKA" CPU with Nvidia's GPU technology, targeting AI infrastructure across various sectors [2] - The AI investment landscape is expanding, with significant funding aimed at building supercomputing capabilities to support advanced AI applications [2] Group 2: Financial Technology Innovations - Lakala announced an upgrade to its payment solutions in collaboration with WeChat Pay, enhancing support for cross-border payment needs [3] - Yixin's "Yixin Smart Service" solution has improved operational efficiency in automotive finance by 70% through full-chain AI applications [3] - Jiufang Zhitu has acquired shares in EX.IO, leveraging compliance and Web3 technology to enhance overseas digital asset operations [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on the brokerage industry's intelligent investment research and advisory services, particularly companies developing specialized models and related products [1] - There is optimism regarding the rapid implementation of intelligent customer service, marketing, and risk control in the consumer finance sector [1] - The banking and insurance industries are expected to benefit from large models enhancing research and development efficiency across various business scenarios [1] - The application of large models in the payment industry for merchant ordering and marketing is also seen as a promising area for investment [1]