Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new performance evaluation regulations in the non-bank financial sector, emphasizing the importance of investor experience and the growth of mixed FOF products [5]. Group 1: Fund Market Overview - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in the market reached 36 trillion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.06% month-on-month [3]. - The total number of public fund shares was 31.36 trillion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.37%. Equity funds accounted for 6.5 trillion shares, up 1.55%, while bond funds totaled 9.15 trillion shares, up 0.21%. Money market fund shares were 14.61 trillion, down 0.44% [3]. - In November 2025, 945.67 billion new fund shares were issued, marking a month-on-month increase of 30.81%, with equity funds contributing 546.69 billion shares (up 42.27%) and bond funds 216.66 billion shares (up 49.2%) [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - There was a slight recovery in individual investors' risk appetite, with ordinary stock, enhanced index, and mixed funds showing month-on-month increases of 0.18%, 3.62%, and 0.41%, respectively. QDII and FOF funds continued to see net inflows, with growth rates of 3.97% and 8.88% [4]. - Institutional investors are seeking to enhance returns amid interest rate fluctuations, with funds primarily flowing into secondary bond funds and REITs, which saw month-on-month increases of 0.50% and 1.10% [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The industry is placing greater emphasis on investor experience, with the issuance of mixed FOF products continuing to grow month-on-month. The new performance evaluation regulations are currently under consultation [5]. - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated upwards, leading to increased volatility in the bond market. This has made capital gains more challenging, prompting new fixed-income products to shift towards more attractive fixed-income plus products [5]. - The "TREE Changying Plan," launched by China Merchants Bank in collaboration with public funds, aims to provide a one-stop asset allocation solution for clients, focusing on risk control and stable returns through optimal FOF selection [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent weakening of 30-year government bonds and the potential for a re-pricing of the 30-year to 10-year government bond yield spread due to changes in institutional participation and expectations, despite a low interest rate environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Environment and Yield Spread - The narrowing of the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds since 2023 is attributed to both declining interest rates and the influence of trading and speculative forces [1]. - Historical data suggests that the core determinants of the 30-year to 10-year yield spread are not solely based on interest rates but also on the economic cycle and policy orientation [1][2]. Future Expectations - The low interest rate environment does not necessarily lead to a downward shift in the yield spread's central tendency or a continuous narrowing of its fluctuation range [2]. - The central tendency of the 30-year to 10-year yield spread may rise to 40 basis points (bp), with an expanded fluctuation range of 30-50 bp, influenced by changes in policy environment, economic expectations, and institutional behavior [2]. Long-term and Short-term Factors - Long-term factors affecting yield spread volatility include the pressure from the stock-bond relationship, price fluctuations in cyclical goods, and potential underperformance of monetary policy [3]. - In the short term, there are signs of recovery in the 10-year government bonds and T contracts, suggesting gradual participation, while the 30-year bonds require further observation [3]. Investment Strategy - If the 30-year to 10-year yield spread continues to widen, there may be entry opportunities, but investors should be aware of the current wide fluctuations, which could exceed 20 bp [3].

报告导读： 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配 A/H 股与工 业金属，战术性标配国债，战术性低配美元。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 利率决议将至，建议均衡配置——战术性资产配置周度点评（20251208）；报告日期： 2025.12.08 报告作者： 王子翌（分析师），登记编号：S0880523050004 方奕（分析师），登记编号：S0880520120005 多重因素支持中国权益表现，我们维持对 A/H 股的战术性超配观点。 经济工作会议临近， 2026 年是十五五开局之年，预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济 政策有望更加积极。若美联储 12 月降息，当下人民币稳定升值也为 2026 年初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。改革提振中国市场风险偏好。中国权益相较于其 他主要大类资产的风险回报比较高。 融资需求与信贷供给仍不平衡，我们维持对国债的战术性标配观点。 在海外货币政策预期的趋松修正的背景下，我国央行货币政策或发力，以呵护银行间资 金流动性充裕稳定。此前债券市场调整较大，但融资需求与信贷供给不平衡仍是客观现实，流动性的边际改善或有利于稳定债市情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downside risks [1] Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Domestic coal prices have transitioned from an upward trend to a rational decline since November, with the focus on whether winter demand can exceed expectations [1] - As of December 5, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 801 RMB/ton, down 27 RMB/ton (-3.3%) from the previous week [2] - The adjustment of long-term coal contracts for 2026 aims to enhance the upper limit while ensuring compliance rates, which is beneficial for sector valuation [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decrease, with total supply expected to maintain a steady decline throughout the year [2] - The demand side shows significant improvement during the off-season, with Q3 profitability expected to rebound [2] - As of December 5, 2025, the inventory of coking coal at three ports totaled 2.9 million tons, with a utilization rate of 79.18% for coking enterprises with over 200,000 tons [3] Group 3: Global Energy Landscape - The short-term position of coal in the global energy landscape remains strong, with attention drawn to issues such as electricity shortages in the U.S. [1] - The cost of domestic Q5500 coal is 35 RMB/ton lower than that of Australian imported coal, indicating competitive pricing [3] - The price of Australian coking coal increased by 7 USD/ton (3.1%) to 222 USD/ton, highlighting fluctuations in global coal pricing [3]

Market Performance - Global indices experienced a slight increase last week, with MSCI Global up by 0.4%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 0.3%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.3% [1] - In the bond market, Japanese bond yields rose while UK bond yields fell [1] - Commodities saw significant fluctuations, with copper and silver showing notable changes, while natural gas experienced a substantial decline [1] - Currency movements included a depreciation of the US dollar, appreciation of the British pound and Japanese yen, and stability in the Chinese yuan [1] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in US and Japanese markets, while trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, German, and French markets weakened [1] - Investor sentiment improved in Hong Kong, although it remains at historically low levels, while US investor sentiment also rose, reaching historically high levels [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, European, and US markets, while Japanese market volatility increased [1] - Overall valuations in both developed and emerging markets rose compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Recent upward revisions in earnings expectations for Japanese stocks were noted, with US stocks showing the best marginal changes for 2025 earnings expectations [2] - Hong Kong's earnings expectations were downgraded, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2105 to 2094 [2] - US earnings expectations remained stable, with the S&P 500 Index's 2025 EPS forecast at 272 [2] - European earnings expectations also remained stable, with the Eurozone STOXX 50 Index's 2025 EPS forecast holding at 330 [2] Economic Expectations - Economic sentiment in Europe and the US showed signs of recovery last week, supported by various factors including Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and improvements in service sector activity [2] - The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index increased, influenced by the Fed's rate cut expectations and developments in the Ukraine-Russia talks [2] - Conversely, the Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index declined, impacted by weaker manufacturing PMI and subdued policy expectations [2] Capital Flows - High expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts were maintained, with indications of a potential 25 basis point reduction in December [3] - Market expectations suggest the Fed may cut rates three times in 2026 [3] - Global liquidity conditions improved, with significant capital inflows into China, the US, Japan, India, and South Korea noted in October [3] - Continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks were observed through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes a macro policy of "more proactive and effective" while focusing on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with a priority on expanding domestic demand and improving people's livelihoods, awaiting further policy details from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [1][6]. Group 1: Key Features of the Meeting - Domestic demand is prioritized, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote an economy driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth [2][6]. - The macro policy maintains a "more proactive and effective" tone, with a focus on enhancing policy effectiveness. Monetary policy continues to express "moderate easing," while fiscal policy aims for precision between proactivity and sustainability, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2026 and new local special bonds expected to be issued at approximately 4.6 trillion [2][7]. - Despite a temporary reduction in external risks, the emphasis on people's livelihoods remains high, with a commitment to resolving issues such as overdue payments to enterprises and wages for migrant workers [3][8]. Group 2: Specific Deployments for Economic Work in 2026 - In addition to expanding domestic demand, there is an emphasis on "optimizing supply" in tandem, with policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply expected to be implemented [4][9]. - The integration of existing and new policies is highlighted, with approximately 700 billion yuan in policy financial tools and local bond limits expected to support project construction in the first quarter of 2026 [9][10]. - Continuous efforts will be made to address debt resolution and overdue payments, with a focus on mitigating risks in key areas, maintaining a strategy of leveraging central initiatives while controlling new debt at the local level [10].

Group 1: Energy Efficiency and Carbon Reduction - The State Council held a meeting on December 5 to discuss enhancing energy efficiency and carbon reduction efforts, emphasizing the importance of these initiatives in achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [3] - The construction sector is advised to focus on opportunities related to new power systems, including wind and solar energy projects, distributed solar, pumped storage, new energy storage, virtual power plants, and hydrogen industry chain development [3] Group 2: New Urbanization and Real Estate - On December 3, the State Council conducted a collective study on promoting people-centered new urbanization, aiming to create a new pattern of urban-rural integration [4] - The transition of urbanization in China is moving from rapid growth to stable development, necessitating the implementation of urban renewal actions that integrate safety, real estate stability, and high-quality housing development [4] Group 3: REITs and Infrastructure Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission released a list of industry sectors eligible for REITs projects, covering 15 specific areas including transportation, energy, municipal infrastructure, and urban renewal facilities [5] - The expansion of the REITs issuance scope is expected to enhance the role of infrastructure REITs in revitalizing existing assets and promoting a positive investment cycle [5] Group 4: Retail and Consumer Trends - The U.S. retail sales during Black Friday increased by 4.1% year-on-year, indicating resilience in consumer spending despite various challenges [10] - INDITEX reported a 4.9% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with net profit rising by 8.9%, reflecting strong performance and effective cost management [11]

Group 1 - The humanoid robot industry is currently in a critical phase of commercialization, with significant progress in policies, products, and orders both domestically and internationally [1] - Leading domestic humanoid robot companies are achieving breakthroughs in products and orders, indicating a potential resonance between domestic and overseas humanoid robot industries, which may accelerate the global commercialization process [2] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between UBTECH Robotics and ZhiSheng Technology, aiming to deploy 10,000 robots over the next five years, marking a shift from concept validation to commercial implementation [2] Group 2 - ZhongQing Robotics launched the T800 humanoid robot, priced starting at 180,000 yuan, with a product matrix that includes four versions to meet diverse application needs, indicating a transition from "technical feasibility" to "scalable usability" [3] - The U.S. government, under the Trump administration, is shifting focus towards robotics, with plans to accelerate industry development and potentially announce an executive order on robotics [3]

论坛上，国泰海通联合编制的《中国生物医药企业全球化战略与跨境合作白皮 书》项目（简称《白皮书》）正式启动。《白皮书》将系统梳理中国生物医药企 业全球化布局成果，汇总行业跨境合作成功案例，形成可参考、可复制的出海信 息库，并依托国泰海通研究所等权威研究机构对案例的深度拆解，分析标杆企业 经验、国际市场需求特征及合作风险点，突出信息库的研究成果价值，为行业提 供理论与实践结合的参考依据。 近日，由中央广播电视总台和上海市人民政府共同主办的2025科创大会在上海 举行。作为大会重要组成部分，国泰海通参加的"AI赋能医疗健康创新与出海"分 论坛备受行业关注。上海市卫生健康委员会主任闻大翔，上海市徐汇区委常委、 副区长罗华品出席论坛并致辞。国泰海通副总裁、研究与机构业务委员会总裁、 政策和产业研究院院长陈忠义出席论坛。 论 坛 期 间 ， 国 泰 海 通 研 究 所 副 所 长 、 生 物 医 药 首 席 分 析 师 余 文 心 从 " 资 本 视 角"出发，解析《白皮书》的独特价值。她指出，中国生物医药正从"跟跑"迈 向"并跑"乃至"领跑"，全球化已成为行业发展的战略必选项。《白皮书》由七 大权威机构联合打造，希望达 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent adjustments to the National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance drug catalog, highlighting the government's commitment to supporting innovative and differentiated drug development through strategic purchasing [1][2]. Group 1: Drug Catalog Adjustments - On December 7, the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) released the updated drug catalog for 2025, which includes 114 new drugs, of which 50 are classified as Class 1 innovative drugs [2]. - The overall success rate of drug negotiations for the insurance catalog has improved to 88% in 2025, up from 76% in 2024, indicating a more favorable environment for drug inclusion [2]. - The total number of drugs in the catalog has increased to 3,253, with significant enhancements in coverage for critical areas such as oncology, chronic diseases, mental health, rare diseases, and pediatric medications [2]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the cumulative expenditure of the medical insurance fund has exceeded 13 trillion yuan, benefiting nearly 20 billion patient visits [1]. - The NHSA has included 835 new drugs in the insurance payment scope over the past seven years, with 149 of these being innovative drugs, and approximately 80% of innovative drugs are included in the catalog within two years of their market launch [1]. - The NHSA's negotiations have resulted in over 4.6 trillion yuan in expenditures for negotiated drugs, driving sales exceeding 6 trillion yuan [1]. Group 3: Commercial Health Insurance Innovations - The first version of the commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog was introduced, including 19 drugs that are highly innovative and provide significant clinical value, such as CAR-T therapies and treatments for rare diseases [3]. - This new catalog aims to complement the basic medical insurance, clarifying the boundaries of basic insurance coverage and promoting the development of a multi-tiered medical security system [3].