Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is showing various structural highlights in the 2025 mid-year report, with multinational expansion and high-end demand significantly contributing to profitability. Different sub-industries in the domestic market are reaching a consensus on improving profitability, with the pace of profitability recovery potentially outpacing revenue recovery [1]. Group 1: Cement Sector - The cement sector has demonstrated pricing elasticity, with overseas profitability advantages being strong. In Q2 2025, the profitability of the cement industry showed a pattern of high-to-low within the quarter, with April and May continuing the price advantages and raw material cost reductions from Q1, contributing to a year-on-year increase in profitability [2]. - Starting in June, supply-demand pressures increased, leading to a retraction in profitability, but it is confirmed that 2024 is likely the bottom for profit per ton, with further downward pressure being difficult [2]. - The focus on limiting overproduction remains crucial for improving supply-demand dynamics, and there is an expectation for improved shareholder returns driven by industry equity incentives [2]. Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The profitability recovery in the consumer building materials sector is showing higher elasticity compared to revenue elasticity. In Q2, the revenue growth rate for this sector remained similar to Q1, with expectations that the revenue growth bottomed out in Q3 2024 [3]. - The industry has generally seen some recovery, with price disadvantages year-on-year being a core factor affecting revenue appearance. However, entering Q3, a significant recovery is anticipated due to base effects [3]. - Price recovery and structural upgrades in the coatings and waterproofing sectors are leading the way, while personnel and cost optimizations have significantly improved profitability in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Glass and Fiberglass - In the fiberglass sector, high-end demand from wind power and thermoplastics is supporting continuous improvement in net profit per ton for leading companies. The demand trend for AI in electronic fabrics is expected to drive both volume and price increases [4]. - The structural upgrade and demand expansion in the specialty electronic fabric sector remain a certain trend, with leading companies deepening their participation [4]. - In the glass sector, the float glass market is experiencing price stabilization amid supply-demand stalemate, while photovoltaic glass has seen slight price rebounds following self-regulated production cuts during extreme losses [4].

报告导读： 当前家具龙头企业估值处于历史区间底部，或受益于地产数据及政策，边际转 好。家具企业业绩仍有支撑。同时红利属性愈发突出。 维持增持评级。 当前行业仍有一定外界压力的背景下，龙头企业纷纷发力大家居、扩品类，同时布局家装、社区店、线上引流等多种获客方式，进一步强化 对终端客户的触达。利润端，龙头企业则有望通过更为较强的上游议价能力、突出的柔性制造能力、出色的费用控制力，实现降本增效，获得更为客观的盈利 水平。 地产 & 刺激消费政策频出。 地方房地产政策主要方向为调减限制性措施等。 8 月 8 日，北京市优化房地产政策，具体包括五环以外不再限制购房套数 / 公 积金优化首套房认定标准 / 更好促进产城融合职住平衡等。 8 月 25 日上海发布优化调整本市房地产政策措施，明确放宽外环外套数限制 / 统一单身与家庭 购房标准 / 优化公积金政策 / 调整信贷政策等。另外，苏州自 8 月 26 日起，取消苏州市区范围内新建商品住房取得不动产权登记证书满 2 年方可转让的限 制措施（有特殊限制转让要求的住房除外）； 9 月 1 日，南昌市住房和城乡建设局发布《关于优化新建商品房预售监管资金释放节点的通知》，以保 ...

报告导读： 上周新兴市场表现占优，成交趋弱，板块上医药表现最佳。 8 月非农数据大 幅低于预期，引发 9 月降息预期再度升温，市场预期联储年内降息次数抬升至 2.8 次左右 。 此外， 上周港股盈利预期受可选消费板块拖累下修，美股科技盈利预期续升。 市场表现：上周新兴市场表现占优。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 +0.4% ，其中 MSCI 发达 +0.3% 、 MSCI 新兴 +1.3% 。债市方面，美国 10Y 国债利率大幅 下行。大宗方面，黄金涨幅居前。汇率方面，美元贬，英镑平，日元贬，人民币平。分板块看，上周全球医药板块普涨，港股材料 + 可选消费涨幅居前，欧 美股市通讯表现较优。 交投情绪：上周全球股市成交普降，港股美股波动率下降。 从成交量 / 成交额看，上周全球股市成交普遍下降。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比上 升、处历史高位，美股投资者情绪下降、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股 / 美股波动率下降，欧股 / 日股波动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新 兴市场整体估值均较前周提升。 盈利预期：上周港股盈利预期继续下修。 横向对比来看，上周日股 2025 年盈利预期边际变化表现最优，欧股、美股 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption patterns, technologies, and channels in driving growth in the retail and service sectors [7]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards more digital and experiential purchases, indicating a growing demand for innovative retail solutions [7]. - There is a noted increase in the importance of sustainability and ethical consumption among consumers, influencing purchasing decisions [7]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The integration of advanced technologies such as AI and big data analytics is transforming the retail landscape, enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency [7]. - Companies that leverage technology effectively are expected to gain a competitive edge in the market [7]. Group 3: Emerging Channels - The rise of e-commerce and social commerce is reshaping traditional retail models, with a significant shift towards online platforms for consumer engagement [7]. - The report suggests that businesses must adapt to these new channels to remain relevant and capture market share [7].

Group 1: Convertible Bonds Market - The recent decline and stabilization of the convertible bond market occurred ahead of the underlying stocks, with a notable drop starting on August 27, where convertible bonds fell more than the underlying stocks [4] - As of last Friday, the median price of convertible bonds decreased from a historical high of 136 to 128.6, before recovering to 131.9, indicating a compression in the conversion premium rate from 27.6% to 23.1% [4] - The current high prices and valuations in the convertible bond market present opportunities for quality bonds, as the "slow bull" market mindset suggests limited downside adjustment space [5][6] Group 2: Equity Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, driven by positive liquidity factors and a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may boost risk appetite and attract foreign capital back to A-shares [5] - Key sectors such as technology growth (AI, consumer electronics, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals) remain the core focus, supported by multiple favorable drivers including industry trends and policy directions [5] - The market may experience rotation among sectors, with relatively undervalued industries like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and consumer goods potentially benefiting from high-to-low market demand shifts [5] Group 3: Furniture Sector - The furniture sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with leading companies expanding their product categories and enhancing customer engagement through various channels [10] - Recent government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and easing real estate restrictions are expected to support the furniture market, with significant funding allocated to boost consumer spending [11][12] - The leading companies in the furniture sector are projected to achieve better profitability through strong upstream bargaining power and effective cost control, with an average PE valuation of 11.0 times and a dividend yield of 5.2% for 2025 [12] Group 4: Oil and Petrochemical Sector - OPEC+ is considering further production increases, which may lead to an imbalance in oil supply and demand, especially as the peak season ends [17] - The anticipated increase in production by approximately 137,000 barrels per day could exacerbate the downward pressure on oil prices [17] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the polyester filament sector, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and reduced inventory levels [18]

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's export growth showed a slight decline due to a higher base and the tapering off of previous technical rush shipments, with a notable increase in re-export scale and sustained high levels of exports to non-US and non-re-export destinations [1][2]. Export Structure - The export momentum outlook indicates that regulatory measures on re-exports from certain ASEAN countries, such as Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, are a key market concern. These countries have implemented regulations focusing on local value content and substantial processing requirements since 2025 [2]. - The impact of re-export regulations is expected to be minimal. Even under the worst-case scenario, where both narrow and broad definitions of re-exports face a 40% tariff, the effect on China's export growth rate would only be a reduction of 2%. In reality, only 30-50% of the products exported to ASEAN can be classified as re-export demand, leading to a more realistic impact of 0.7-1.2% on export growth [2]. - The company maintains that the short-term export momentum will see a mild decline, but the medium to long-term resilience remains strong due to stable replacement demand from non-US and non-re-export destinations, low impact from re-export regulations, and robust capital goods exports [2]. Trade Data Insights - In August 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 4.4%, down from 7.2% previously, while import growth was 1.3%, down from 4.1% [8]. - Month-on-month, August exports were flat compared to July, slightly below seasonal levels and significantly lower than the same period in 2024, indicating that high base effects are dragging down year-on-year export growth [8]. - The trade surplus has rebounded, with a structural shift observed: exports to the US are slowing while those to ASEAN are increasing, reflecting an expansion in re-export activities. Conversely, exports to Latin America have decreased due to the cooling of technical rush shipments and the impact of new tariffs [8].

报告导读： 国内方面，公募基金费率改革第三阶段开启。国外方面，美国 8 月非农数据 远低于预期，美联储新一轮预防式降息将至。 在通胀担忧与就业放缓并存的背景下，美联储多位票委释放降息信号，最新就业数据进一步确认了劳动力市场降温趋势，预计新一轮预防式降息将要来临。 鲍威尔表示目前表示策调整的时机已经到来，降息时机和节奏将取决于后续数据、前景变化和风险平衡，近日美联储理事沃勒也表示美联储应在本月开始降 息，并在未来数月内进行多次下调。数据上，美国 8 月季调后非农就业人口远低于市场预期，就业增长的超预期放缓显示劳动力市场恶化显著。美联储若开 启降息，我国汇率与货币政策的操作空间将扩大，政策层面或通过央行重启国债交易加大基础货币投放、持续引导国内利率及市场化融资成本下行。 国内经济与产业政策：聚焦要素市场化配置试点、构建城市发展新模式，电子信息制造业部署稳增长方案，"人工智能 + "、卫星通讯产业部署指导意见。 1 ） 9 月 5 日，工信部、市场监督管理总局印发《电子信息制造业 2025-2026 年稳增长行动方案》。 2 ） 8 月 29 日，国务院常务会议召开，研究在全国 部分地区实施要素市场化配置综合改革试 ...

2025 上半年油运景气回升， Q3 盈利将创两年新高。 2024 下半年油运市场受地缘油价与伊朗增产而经历压力测试。 2025 年以来，油运景气已明显回 升， Q2 淡季中东 - 中国航线 VLCC TCE 中枢超 4 万美元 / 天，油运公司 Q2 业绩同比降幅显著收窄。 1 ）油价中枢回落。 油价定价逻辑逐步由地缘主 导回归供需决定， OPEC+ 增产加速油价中枢回落，助力炼厂开工回升与贸易恢复。 2 ）伊朗制裁升级。 美国对伊朗制裁加码，特别对相关影子船队制裁趋 严，助力油轮合规市场供需改善。 2025 上半年油运公司业绩同比高基数仍普遍下降，值得注意的是，其中原油轮盈利已连续两个季度环比上升。根据波交所 指数，我们预计 2025Q3 原油轮盈利有望创过去两年同期新高。 油运的长逻辑：受益全球原油增产，下半年增产利好或逐步体现。 2022 年初俄乌冲突开启全球油运贸易重构，俄欧"舍近求远"驱动油运航距拉长及需求大 增超一成，油运景气上升。过去一年短期因素主导景气波动，我们估算目前油运产能利用率或已恢复至阈值。我们预计未来数年油运供需将继续向好，景气有 望好于预期。 1 ）供给刚性持续。 油轮老龄化最为 ...

报告导读： 煤炭价格见顶，预计 2026H1 上半年压力仍在但同比 25 年同期会趋缓，电 煤需求叠加煤炭价格的弹性大概率从 2026H2 开始，预计 26H2 煤价可以升至 800 元 / 吨以上。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 动力煤：价格见顶回落。 截至 9 月 5 日，北方黄骅港 Q5500 平仓价 691 元 / 吨，较前一周下跌 11 元 / 吨（ -1.6% ）。从供给看，国内稳定，进口继 续缩量：预计全年国内加进口总供给基本维持稳定下滑；需求端，我们预计 6-8 月需求大幅度改善， Q3 盈利有望迎来反弹。 焦煤：期现共反弹，铁水有望淡季不淡。 截至 9 月 5 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价（山西产） 1550 元 / 吨，较前一周下跌 80 元 / 吨（ - ...

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【交运】站在旺季前，再议油运的短逻辑与长逻辑 2025上半年油运景气回升，Q3盈利将创两年新高。 2024下半年油运市场受地缘油价与伊朗增产而经历压力测试。2025年以来，油运景气已明显回升，Q2 淡季中东-中国航线VLCC TCE中枢超4万美元/天，油运公司Q2业绩同比降幅显著收窄。1）油价中枢回落。油价定价逻辑逐步由地缘主导回归供需决定， OPEC+增产加速油价中枢回落，助力炼厂开工回升与贸易恢复。2）伊朗制裁升级。美国对伊朗制裁加码，特别对相关影子船队制裁趋严，助力油轮合规市场 供需改善。2025上半年油运公司业绩同比高基数仍普遍下降，值得注意的是，其中原油轮盈利已连续两个季度环比上升。根据波交所指数，我们预计 2025Q3原油轮盈利有望创过去两年同期新高。 油运的长逻辑：受益全球原油增产，下半年增产利好或逐步体现。 2022年初俄乌冲突开启全球油运贸易重构，俄欧"舍近求远"驱动油运航距拉长及需求大增 超一成，油运景气上升。过去一年短期因素主导景气波动，我们估算目前油运产能利用率或已恢复至阈值。我们预计未来数年油运供需将继续向好，景气有望 好于预期 ...