Core Viewpoint - The military industry is experiencing a long-term positive trend, supported by recent developments in commercial aerospace and government initiatives aimed at modernizing national defense and military capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Military Industry Performance - The military sector has shown strong performance, with the national defense and military index rising by 3.47% from December 1 to December 5, outperforming the overall market by 3.11 percentage points [2]. - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the goal of achieving a high-quality modernization of the military by the centenary of the People's Liberation Army [1]. Group 2: Key Developments in Aerospace - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket on December 3 marks a significant achievement for Blue Arrow Aerospace, showcasing its capabilities in low-cost, high-frequency, and high-capacity launch services [2]. - The Zhuque-3 rocket features a two-stage design with a total length of 66.1 meters and a takeoff thrust of 7542 kN, indicating advanced engineering and reliability in its operations [2]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - The partnership between "Qianfan Constellation" and Airbus, announced on December 4, represents a critical step in integrating satellite internet services into global markets, enhancing in-flight passenger experiences through advanced connectivity solutions [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Guotai Haitong Securities Research Institute achieved significant recognition in the 2025 21st Century Gold Analyst Awards, winning a total of 28 awards, including 3 institutional awards [1] - A total of 23 teams were awarded the "Gold Analyst" title across seven sectors, including Food and Beverage, Wholesale and Retail, Social Services, Computer, Metals and Metal Materials, North Exchange, and Hong Kong and Overseas Market Research [1][2] - Notable individual awards were given to Tang Yuanmao for Fixed Income Research and Qin Heping for Overseas Technology Research, both recognized as "2025 Annual Growth Analysts" [1] Group 2 - The top-ranked research teams included Food and Beverage, Wholesale and Retail, Social Services, Hong Kong and Overseas Market Research, North Exchange, Computer, and Metals and Metal Materials [2] - The second-ranked teams comprised sectors such as Innovative Drugs, Non-Bank Financials, Strategy Research, Robotics, and Communications [2] - The third and fourth ranks included teams in Public Utilities, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery, Real Estate and Construction, Macroeconomics, Financial Engineering and Derivatives, Transportation and Logistics, and Environmental Protection [2][3]

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 国泰海通研究所 基金评价与研究首席分析师 登记编号: S0880525040097 直播看点 现什么发展趋势? 高质量发展时代 公募县令行业回顾与展望 億韵婷 从基金产品来看,权益基金和固收基金会呈 2 道合 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听 内容 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据 《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服 务质量、控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由 此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方 式与我们联系。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证 券") 研究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅号。其他机构或个人在微信平台上以国泰海通研究 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the electricity shortage in the United States is becoming a clear and certain fact, expected to expand before 2030, leading to a clearer investment logic in the industry [1] - A systematic solution for the power supply side is deemed necessary, focusing on natural gas (including CCGT and OCGT small gas turbines), wind and solar storage, with coal power serving as a backup solution [1] - The article discusses the impact of AI on the electricity system, highlighting a trade-off between reliability, decarbonization, and the demands of data center customers [1][2] Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand - The current energy system in the U.S. has shifted to a dominance of natural gas and clean energy, with coal power accounting for less than 15% [2] - The aging electricity grid, exceeding an average lifespan of 40 years, lacks sufficient baseload capacity to meet expected peak demand growth, leading to regional disconnections [2] - A multi-source collaborative approach is necessary to address the future electricity shortage in the U.S. [2] Group 2: 2030 Electricity Supply Balance - The projected electricity supply balance for 2030 indicates that wind and solar storage will contribute approximately 40% of new electricity generation, although economic challenges in large-scale storage remain [3] - Natural gas is identified as the core contributor to grid reliability and electricity generation, but CCGT may face production bottlenecks [3] - Coal power is expected to decline but will act as a stabilizing force in the energy system [3]

Group 1: Non-Banking Financial Institutions - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has lowered the risk factors for long-term holdings of certain stocks, which is expected to encourage insurance funds to increase their equity asset allocation while maintaining solvency constraints [2] - The policy aims to enhance the capital utilization efficiency of high-quality institutions, allowing leading brokerages to accelerate their development in proprietary trading, derivatives, institutional business, and wealth management [2] - The new regulations on financial leasing companies are expected to improve asset quality and risk pricing transparency, benefiting well-governed and clearly defined business leasing institutions [2] Group 2: Macro Economic Insights - The U.S. economy is showing signs of marginal decline, with industrial output and durable goods orders decreasing, while personal disposable income has slightly increased [6] - The European economy remains resilient, with mixed signals from industrial production and retail sales, while inflation rates show slight increases [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, with a high probability of around 87%, while the European Central Bank is likely to pause rate cuts [8] Group 3: Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is anticipated to enter a "cross-year offensive" phase, with expectations of policy, liquidity, and fundamental support leading to upward movement in indices [11] - The focus is on sectors such as technology, finance, and consumer goods, with recommendations for stocks in internet, media, and manufacturing industries [14] - The demand for asset management is expected to surge as traditional fixed-income products decline, leading to a shift towards diversified investment strategies [12] Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - The U.S. is facing a clear electricity supply shortage, which is projected to expand by 2030, necessitating a systematic approach to energy solutions, particularly in natural gas and renewable sources [17] - The current energy system in the U.S. is transitioning towards a mix dominated by natural gas and clean energy, with coal playing a backup role [18] - By 2030, renewable sources are expected to contribute significantly to new electricity generation, while coal will serve as a stabilizing force in the energy mix [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in capital flows across various markets, indicating a mixed sentiment among foreign investors [1][2][3] Group 2 - Northbound capital saw a slight net inflow of 1.1 billion yuan during the week of December 1 to December 5, 2025, compared to a net inflow of 3.7 billion yuan the previous week [1] - Flexible foreign capital estimated a net inflow of 3.3 billion yuan, down from 6.6 billion yuan the prior week [1] - The top active stocks in the northbound trading included Zhongji Xuchuang with a total transaction amount of 18.6 billion yuan, accounting for 11% of the stock's weekly trading volume [1] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong market, a total of 3.1 billion HKD flowed out, with stable foreign capital withdrawing 17.8 billion HKD and flexible foreign capital inflowing 5.7 billion HKD [2] - The sectors attracting foreign investment included non-ferrous metals, telecommunications services, and semiconductors, while consumer discretionary and durable goods saw significant inflows through the Stock Connect [2] Group 4 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japan experienced a net outflow of 138.8 billion yen from foreign investors during the week ending November 24, 2025, with a cumulative net inflow of 9.7 trillion yen since the beginning of 2023 [2] - India saw a foreign capital outflow of 430 million USD in November, contrasting with an inflow of 1.66 billion USD the previous month [2] Group 5 - In the US and European markets, global mutual funds recorded a net inflow of 3.8 billion USD into the US equity market in October, down from 25.5 billion USD the previous month [3] - European markets saw net outflows, with the UK, Germany, and France experiencing net flows of -3.2 billion USD, 0.14 billion USD, and 1.16 billion USD respectively [3]

风险提示： 宏观经济政策风险，基建投资低于预期等。 报告导读： 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。我们建议关注新型电力系统建设相关机 会。国务院以新型城镇化为主题开展集体学习，再提城市更新和稳楼市等。 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。我们建议关注新型电力系统建设相关机会。 (1)12月5日召开国务院常务会议，研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。节能降碳 是推进碳达峰碳中和、加快发展方式绿色转型的重要抓手。要更高水平更高质量做好节能降碳工作，加大统筹力度，锚定总体目标，因地制宜推进，在经济发 展中促进绿色转型、在绿色转型中实现更好发展。要切实增强节能降碳内生动力，充分发挥政策效应，不断完善市场机制，有效调动全社会的积极性，加快形 成绿色生产生活方式。(2)建筑板块关注新型电力系统建设，如风电、光伏能源施工板块，分布式光伏，抽水蓄能和新型储能，虚拟电厂，氢能产业链建设 等。 国务院以新型城镇化为主题开展集体学习，再提城市更新和稳楼市等。 (1)12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格 局"为主题进行专题学习。新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重要载体。展望"十五五" ...

以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 国家能源局启动"人工智能"能源试点，中法持续推进和平利用核能领域合作 ；报告日期： 2025.12.06 报告作者： 肖群稀（分析师），登记编号：S0880522120001 黄龙（分析师），登记编号：S0880525070027 报告导读： 上周（2025/12/1-2025/12/5）可控核聚变领域动态：1）国家能源局启 动"人工智能+"能源试点工作，聚变智能控制迎来政策东风；2）中法持续推进和平利用核 能领域合作；3）韩国启动创新聚变偏滤器研发中心，英美联手合作开发中性束技术。 投资建议： 重点关注磁体、电源、偏滤器等在内的可控核聚变关键环节核心厂商：1）磁体；2）电源；3）堆内外结构件及其他分系统。 国家能源局启动"人工智能+"能源试点工作，聚变智能控制迎来政策东风。 近日，国家能源局综合司发布《关于组织开展"人工智能+"能源试点工作的通知》 （国能综通科技〔2025〕168号），标志着我国在"人工智能+"与聚变交叉领域迈出重要步伐。此次试点工作聚焦2025年9月发布的《关于推进"人工智能+"能 源高质量发展的实施意见》中提出的八大类场景与 ...

Market Overview - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation phase in the short term, as indicated by the technical analysis and sentiment model signals [1][2] - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 0.03, lower than the previous week (0.50), suggesting current market liquidity is above the one-year average by 0.03 standard deviations [2] - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF decreased to 0.83 from 1.02, indicating reduced caution among investors regarding the short-term outlook [2] - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 1.01% and 1.62%, respectively, reflecting increased trading activity [2] Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight fluctuations, with weekly increases of 0.12% and 0.03%, respectively [2] - The official manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 49.2, slightly above the previous value (49) but below the consensus expectation (49.3) [2] - The S&P Global China Manufacturing PMI was 49.9, down from the previous value (50.6) [2] Historical Performance - Historical data shows that from 2005 onwards, the SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, and other major indices have had a high probability of rising in the first half of December, with average gains of 1.81%, 2.45%, 1.55%, and -0.02% respectively [2] - The A-share market showed a slight upward trend last week, with the SSE 50 Index up by 0.47%, CSI 300 up by 1.64%, CSI 500 up by 3.14%, and the ChiNext Index up by 4.54% [2] Factor Analysis - The crowding degree for small-cap factors has significantly decreased, with a value of 0.16, while the low valuation factor crowding degree is at -0.65 [3] - High profitability factor crowding degree is at -0.09, and high growth profitability factor crowding degree is at 0.05 [3] - Industry crowding degrees are relatively high in telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, comprehensive sectors, power equipment, and electronics, while machinery and defense industries have seen a notable increase in crowding [3]

Group 1: Bond Fund Holdings and Performance - The leverage level of pure bond funds reached 118.27%, significantly higher than that of mixed bond funds that can invest in equities [1] - The overall duration has shortened to 2.84, aligning with product positioning strategies [1] - Concentration risk in individual bonds is evident, with short-term and long-term bond funds showing much higher concentration than mixed bond funds, possibly due to liquidity needs or strategy focus [1] - Mixed primary bond funds performed steadily with an average return of 0.62% and a maximum drawdown of -0.81%, indicating acceptable risk-adjusted returns [1] - Mixed secondary bond funds led in returns with an average of 2.98%, but also had the highest drawdown at -1.07%, with improved risk-adjusted returns compared to the previous two quarters [1] - Short-term bond funds exhibited the lowest volatility, but current yield attractiveness is limited [1] - Long-duration bond funds performed poorly with an average return of -0.35% and a maximum drawdown of -0.69% [1] Group 2: Amortized Cost Method Bond Funds - As of November 13, 2025, there are 191 amortized cost method bond funds still in operation, with a total net asset value of approximately 1.47 trillion yuan and a total asset value of about 2.03 trillion yuan [2] - The market value of bond investments within these funds is around 1.95 trillion yuan [2] - A significant number of amortized bond funds with a closed period greater than three years are expected to open from the end of 2025 to the entire year of 2026, with 109 funds anticipated to open [2] - The opening of amortized bond funds is expected to drive demand for long-term credit bonds [2] Group 3: Potential Liquidity Pressure in Credit Bond Market - Bond funds that are likely to be affected by new regulations include those with a high proportion of institutional investors (>50%), small scale (<1 billion yuan), and high duration/high elasticity (duration >5 years or leverage >130%) [3] - Over 50% of the sample consists of bond funds with more than 50% institutional investor participation, while over 60% are small bond funds [3] - Approximately 15% of the funds have high duration and high elasticity [3] - Low-yield bond funds may face significant redemption pressure within six months following the implementation of new regulations [3] - As of the end of Q3, affected bond funds (considering only institution-led funds) held credit bonds worth about 2.65 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 9.13% of the total market custody balance [3] - The market value of financial bonds held by affected bond funds is approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, representing 13.03% of the total market [3]