更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 ...

亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 法律声明 ...

重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 法律声明 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

Group 1 - The global economic system is undergoing a reconstruction driven by changes in the trust foundation, primarily influenced by shifts in international relations, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" process [1] - The long-term bull market for gold should be viewed from a historical perspective, as the trend of declining trust among countries is unlikely to change, indicating a historical shift in the gold market [1] - In the long run, as long as the U.S. economy maintains its correction capabilities, the dollar will not collapse; however, in the medium to short term, there are concerns about a potential decline in dollar credit [1] Group 2 - Domestic macroeconomic policies are expected to continue marginally increasing, particularly after July, with hopes for further fiscal policy support and potential comprehensive interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [2] - The short-term economic demand in China needs to be boosted to achieve a growth target of around 5% by 2025, necessitating active policy measures [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic impacts and risks associated with the recently passed OBBB Act, which extends tax cuts and modifies tax policies in the U.S. economy, highlighting three main risks: financing risk, economic risk, and trust risk [1][5]. Summary by Sections OBBB Act Overview - The OBBB Act, passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on May 22, extends tax cuts from the 2017 TCJA Act, stabilizing tax policy expectations for individuals and businesses [2]. - The act is projected to increase the deficit by $2.3 trillion over the next 10 years, which is $900 billion less than earlier budget proposals, primarily due to significant cuts in welfare programs [2]. Deficit and Debt Implications - The act does not significantly alter the long-term trajectory of U.S. government debt, with a temporary increase in the deficit rate expected to exceed 7% before stabilizing around 6.5% [2]. - The arrangement of tax cuts preceding spending cuts may lead to uncertainties in actual deficit outcomes, as political motivations could affect the execution of spending cuts [3]. Risks Associated with the OBBB Act - **Financing Risk**: The act creates "untimely" pressure on U.S. debt supply, particularly before 2028, in a high inflation and high interest rate environment, potentially leading to mismatches in supply and demand for government bonds [5]. - **Economic Risk**: Certain tax reform provisions may exacerbate income inequality, as many tax cuts are extensions rather than new measures, which could lower expectations for economic stimulation [5]. - **Trust Risk**: New taxes on capital and labor entering the U.S. could undermine trust in the dollar system, potentially leading to a negative feedback loop affecting U.S. credit and economic recovery [5][4].

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The global economy is undergoing a restructuring of the monetary system, driven by changes in trust due to shifts in international relations, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" process [3] - The long-term bull market for gold is expected to continue, as the decline in trust among countries is unlikely to change, indicating a historical shift [3] - In the short to medium term, the U.S. dollar may face further credit decline risks, with potential upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations [3] Group 2: U.S. Tax Policy Risks - The new U.S. tax reduction plan presents three main risks: financing risk due to inappropriate U.S. debt supply pressure, economic risk from unfair income distribution effects, and trust risk related to unfriendly international tax policies [6] Group 3: Trade Relations and Asset Prices - Historical analysis shows that asset prices are significantly influenced by trade relations, with market sensitivity to negative signals being higher than to positive ones [7] - The performance of different asset classes varies, with stocks and currencies being more sensitive to trade signals compared to the bond market [7] Group 4: Convertible Bonds Market - The convertible bond market is expected to enter a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with low interest rates driving demand for attractive assets [9] - The risk of credit shocks in the convertible bond market is considered manageable, with strong support for the current convertible bond pricing [10] Group 5: IPO Market Strategy - The IPO market is set for high-quality development, with regulatory support for technology-driven companies and a steady increase in the number of IPOs expected in 2025 [16][17] - The anticipated issuance of 80 to 140 new stocks in 2025 is expected to raise approximately 94 billion yuan, with a projected average first-day increase of 150% for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [17] Group 6: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery industry is facing intensified price competition, but healthy competition is expected to prevail, with market share likely concentrating among leading companies [18] - The resilience of leading e-commerce delivery companies is noted, with their performance remaining stable amid competitive pressures [18] Group 7: 3D DRAM Technology - The transition from 2D to 3D DRAM architecture is highlighted as a long-term trend, with significant implications for AI applications and hardware development [20] Group 8: Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is expected to benefit from high-end segments and e-commerce trends, with a focus on brands that adapt to new market dynamics [22][23] Group 9: Yellow Wine Industry - The yellow wine industry is undergoing structural upgrades, with leading companies focusing on high-end product development and targeting younger consumer demographics [25]

Core Viewpoint - The AI ASIC industry is experiencing significant growth opportunities due to its advantages over general-purpose chips like GPUs and CPUs in terms of computing power, efficiency, and cost per unit of computing power, which are driving demand growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ASIC market is catalyzed by its ability to adapt to various business scenarios and customer needs, providing flexibility in business layout [1]. - Major overseas CSP companies are launching self-developed chips, with Google releasing its latest TPU chip, Trillium, which has more than doubled its computing power compared to the previous generation [2]. - AWS has introduced the Trainium series, with the latest Trainium2 chip's performance being four times that of its predecessor, showcasing advancements in AI chip technology [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Leading AI ASIC design companies like Broadcom and Marvell are benefiting from the surge in AI demand, with Broadcom projecting a 220% year-on-year increase in AI business revenue to $12.2 billion for fiscal year 2024 [3]. - Broadcom anticipates that its AI business revenue will reach between $60 billion to $90 billion by 2027, indicating strong market confidence [3]. - Marvell expects its AI business revenue to grow from $550 million to $2.5 billion between fiscal years 2024 and 2026, reflecting accelerated growth [3].

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the investment opportunities in Europe amidst the challenges and changes in the global geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for Chinese companies to explore diverse investment avenues in Europe [1]. Group 1: European Economic Situation - The European economy has likely passed its recent low point, with industrial production gradually recovering since Q1 2025, although consumer confidence remains low [2]. - The manufacturing PMI in April showed a rebound, and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone remained at historical lows since 2000 [2]. - Inflation in Europe is expected to be controlled in 2025, with a target return to 2%, providing room for potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Changes and Cooperation - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, presenting new cooperation opportunities between China and Europe, especially with the easing of U.S. tariffs and a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. - The relationship between the U.S. and Europe has changed, with a noticeable shift towards a more balanced relationship between China and Europe, as evidenced by the cancellation of all engagement restrictions in May 2025 [3]. Group 3: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends - The worst period for FDI in Europe may be in the past, as macroeconomic factors that previously suppressed FDI are easing [4]. - FDI inflows have been declining, particularly in Western Europe, while Southern and Northern Europe have seen significant growth [10]. - In 2023, Europe experienced a net outflow of FDI amounting to $341.6 billion, with Western Europe showing the largest decline at -5.9% [10]. Group 4: Chinese Investment in Europe - Chinese FDI in Europe remains high but is shifting from manufacturing to sectors like finance and retail, indicating potential for growth in technology, manufacturing, and consumer services [5][32]. - The distribution of Chinese investments across European countries has become more balanced, with increased focus on Luxembourg and the UK [5][32]. - In 2023, the investment flow from China to Europe reached historical peaks in finance and retail, with manufacturing investment share declining significantly from previous years [34]. Group 5: Investment Environment and Opportunities - Europe offers a favorable investment environment due to its infrastructure, capital markets, and educated workforce, despite recent geopolitical tensions [26][27]. - Countries in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Southern Europe, are emerging as attractive investment destinations due to their market demand and stable business environments [11]. - The EU has been actively promoting policies to attract foreign investment, ensuring that foreign investors receive national treatment and benefits similar to domestic companies [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the return to economic fundamentals and interest rate perspectives, suggesting that the long-term bond market is not excessively priced compared to deposit rates. The recovery of financing and inflation is relatively lagging, and the current downward trend in bond market rates is deemed reasonable based on loan rates as a benchmark [1]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Trends - Since 2022, the broad interest rate trend indicates that the current decline in bond market rates is justified when viewed through the lens of loan rates. The bond market is currently in a plateau phase due to short-term funding friction and external factors that cast doubt on the sustainability of low long-term domestic interest rates [1]. Monetary Policy Impact - The dual interest rate cuts have both short-term and long-term effects, with monetary policy adjustments leading to a return to "normal" funding conditions. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, funding has marginally tightened due to fluctuations caused by changes in monetary policy deployment timing. The impact of deposit rates on funding outflows is not significant until after 2024, with short-term funding friction expected to end by the end of Q2 [1]. Investment Strategy - Following a stair-step approach, the strategy is shifting again, favoring short-term yield strategies. There may be room for extending duration in Q3. Increased awareness of the risks of long-term interest rate rebounds is suppressing a rush into the bond market. In the short term, yield strategies are more cost-effective, and it is advised to maintain duration without chasing long-term bonds, focusing on convexity points in the yield curve [1]. Low-Interest Rate Environment - In a low-interest rate environment, there is a focus on cost reduction and profit enhancement through new strategies and asset classes. Attention is directed towards innovation bonds and REITs, as well as the expansion and rotation of bond fund ETFs. The rise of quantitative strategies in the bond market is also highlighted [1].