每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观 】 全球变局：锚定"确定性"——国泰海通2025年中期宏观展望 全球进入货币体系重构时代： 全球经济体系重构的根源在于信任基础的变化，基于国际关系变化的信任 下降，会导致整个全球货币体系继续分化，重塑资产价格。"去美元化"确实在缓慢进行，主要是非经济因 素主导，尤其是国际关系变化、各国信任度的下降。在这个背景下，黄金的长期牛市需要站在更长历史维 度看待。 各国之间信任度变化的趋势很难改变，这也决定了本轮黄金的牛市是长期的、历史性的变化。 长期来看，只有美国经济纠偏能力还在，美元也不会崩溃。 但 中短期，需要关注美元信用可能进一步下 降。 美债利率实际利率、通胀预期、名义利率存在上行风险， 美元存在继续贬值风险，黄金上涨会加 速，日元、欧元、英镑等国际货币不排除进一步升值。 国内宏观：求诸于内，自胜者强。 中长期来看，我国经济具有较大潜力，不过，短期经济的需求仍然需 要提振。 2025 年要完成 5% 左右的增长目标，仍需积极政策继续发力。 风险提示 ： 稳增长政策落地进度不及预期，国际贸易环境超预期恶化 。 我们认为下半年宏观政策继续边际加码，尤其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is entering a "transformation bull" phase, driven by a clearer understanding of economic conditions among investors and a shift in the main contradictions from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, particularly the reduction in risk-free rates and systemic risk awareness [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The key drivers of the market are the decline in risk-free interest rates and a systemic reduction in risk perception. The past three years saw high opportunity costs hindering investor willingness to enter the market, but recent monetary policies have improved liquidity [2]. - The long-term government bond yield has fallen below 2%, and deposit rates have dropped below 1%, indicating a substantial decrease in risk-free rates in the Chinese stock market [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Emerging technologies are a primary investment theme, while cyclical finance is seen as a dark horse. The focus is on sectors such as finance and high dividends, with recommendations for brokers, banks, and insurance companies, as well as companies with stable dividends and monopolistic advantages [3]. - New technology growth is emphasized, particularly in sectors like internet, media, robotics, pharmaceuticals, and military, driven by competition between China and the U.S. [3]. - The revival of cyclical consumption is anticipated, with a focus on sectors experiencing improved competitive dynamics and tight supply-demand conditions, such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, along with new consumer demands in retail and cosmetics [3]. Group 3: Thematic Recommendations - Recommendations include investments in AI applications, which are expected to accelerate demand for computing power, benefiting internet giants and infrastructure spending [4]. - The diversification of products and applications in embodied intelligence is highlighted, with a focus on core components and lightweight materials that benefit from large-scale production [4]. - The rise of domestic brands in consumer goods is noted, with recommendations for sectors like beauty, IP toys, and pet services that resonate with new consumer demographics [4]. - Regional economic policies, such as the Western Development strategy and the upcoming Hainan free trade zone, present opportunities in infrastructure, specialty raw materials, and tourism [4]. - The restructuring of global technology supply chains suggests a positive outlook for advanced semiconductors, domestic computing, and foundational software [4].

当优选机构多头持仓增加且空头持仓减少时，我们认为多头资金与空头资金对后续判断均偏多，发出做多 信号；当优选机构多头持仓减少且空头持仓增加时，我们认为多头资金与空头资金对后续判断均偏空，发 出做空信号；其余情况则不发出信号。 回测结果表明，蜘蛛网策略在 TS 合约上展现出显著择时优势： 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 4 月 10 日期间，基于前 20 家会员机构多空持仓构建的策略实现年化收益 1.84% （较基准提升 1.45% ），夏 普比率 0.83 （较基准提升 1.46 ），而其余合约表现相对平庸，其背后反映出并非所有合约都适合以前 20 家会员机构作优选机构。 针对这一局限，我们选择利用动态调整"蜘蛛网"节点进行改进：首先根据不 同合约投资者特性预设"蜘蛛网"节点（ 优选会员机构） 的可选择范围，再通过滚动窗口定期筛选出最优 节点。实证显示，动态调整后的策略能够灵活匹配不同合约，显著提升年化收益与夏普比率，成功弥补了 传统蜘蛛网策略超额收益有限的问题。 寻找"聪明资金"：基于单个会员的蜘蛛网策略。 不同会员背后的客户群体不同，所表现出来的行为可能 也会有较大差异，那么其中是否存在着更加 ...

投资建议：结构分化，重视成长。 大众品首选新消费、高成长，白酒周期寻底，配置价值凸显。 白酒：分化加剧，更加理性。 25Q2 产业景气度仍在寻底，头部公司淡季韧性凸显。 与 2012-14 年的 行业调整期相比，本轮周期需求和预期的调整烈度相对较小、但调整周期明显拉长。上一轮白酒行业调整 呈 V 型，行业出清速度快；本轮调整更像 U 型，调整幅度相对较小，目前仍在筑底阶段。 我们认为 短 期股价走势已基本反应市场悲观预期，伴随政策预期回暖白酒板块有望迎来一轮估值修复。 啤酒 & 饮料：啤酒有望修复，饮料结构繁荣。 啤酒旺季将至、经营环比改善； 饮料仍处于单品势能释放 阶段。 | 本文摘自：2025年6月1日发布的 换季消费及成长——食品饮料2025年中期策略 | | --- | | 訾 猛 ，资格证书编号： S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040022 | | 徐 洋 ，资格证书编 号： S0880520120008 | | 姚世佳 ，资格证书编号： S0880520070001 | | 李 耀 ，资格证书编号： S0880520090 001 | | 程碧升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a volatile upward trend led by small and mid-cap stocks after the holiday [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 0.13, lower than the previous week (1.13), indicating current market liquidity is 0.13 standard deviations above the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 1.15, up from 0.94 the previous week, reflecting rising caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.76% and 1.30%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity, positioned at the 50.17% and 63.97% percentile since 2005 [2]. Macro Factors - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates showing weekly declines of -0.08% and -0.48%, respectively [2]. - The US stock market showed a volatile upward trend, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices posting weekly returns of 1.6%, 1.88%, and 2.01% respectively [2]. - The US core PCE price index rose by 2.5% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [2]. Real Estate Sector - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 enterprises from January to May 2025 reached 405.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, with the growth rate expanding by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke below the SAR reversal indicator on May 23, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 160, positioned at the 64.8% percentile since 2021 [2]. - The market has not yet formed a bottom, as the moving average strength index has not shown a significant decline [2]. Performance Overview - For the week of May 26 to May 30, the SSE 50 index fell by 1.22%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.08%, while the CSI 500 index rose by 0.32% and the ChiNext index dropped by 1.4% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 18.9 times, positioned at the 50.5% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor and Industry Observations - Factor crowding remains stable, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.98, low valuation factor crowding at 0.11, high profitability factor crowding at -0.28, and high growth factor crowding at -0.04 [3]. - The industry crowding is relatively high in machinery, comprehensive, retail, environmental protection, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with transportation and non-ferrous metals showing significant increases in crowding [3].

本文摘自：2025年6月2日发布的 2025ASCO揭幕，持续推荐创新药 余文心 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040111 郑 琴 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040108 谈嘉程 ，资格证书编号： S0880523070004 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 报告导读： 2025ASCO 揭幕，中国创新药资产继续在国际舞台上发光发热，持续推荐景 气度向上的创新药。 2025ASCO 揭幕，中国创新药资产继续在国际舞台上发光发热。 2025 年美国临床肿瘤学会（ ASCO ） 年会当地时间 5/30-6/3 在美国芝加哥举行。本次 ASCO 中国创新药资产的口头报告（ oral+rapid oral+LBA ）数量达 73 项，创历史新高 。经过十余年来的发展，中国创新药已走到国际舞台中央，一个 又一个交易额突破新高的海外 BD 反映了 MNC 对中国创新药资产的需求已远大于对地缘风险的担忧。随 着头部创新药企已经开始批量进入扭亏为盈的新发展阶段，中生代 Biotech 旗下优质资产迎来 BD 浪潮 开始密集出海，传统药企走出集采阴影、创新药业务进入兑现期迎来估值重估，中国创新药产业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The update of Deepseek R1 enhances its deep thinking capabilities, positioning it alongside top international models like OpenAI-o3 and Gemini-2.5-Pro-0506, which is expected to accelerate the growth of domestic computing power demand and the implementation of edge models [1][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Improvement - Deepseek R1-0528 has achieved performance iteration through improved training methods, showing significant enhancements in deep thinking capabilities across various benchmarks, closely matching the performance of leading international models [3]. - The distilled model, Deepseek-R1-0528-Qwen3-8B, demonstrates strong performance in mathematical testing, ranking just below Deepseek-R1-0528 and comparable to Qwen3-235B [3]. - The updated model has reduced hallucination rates by approximately 45-50% in tasks such as rewriting and reading comprehension, while also optimizing for different writing styles, enabling the generation of more structured long-form content [3]. Commercialization Potential - The performance improvements in deep thinking and writing, along with reduced hallucination rates, are expected to enhance user experience, potentially increasing user penetration and daily usage frequency, thereby driving growth in the domestic computing power industry [4]. - The outstanding performance of the distilled training model is anticipated to accelerate the deployment of large models on edge devices such as smartphones, PCs, and smart glasses, improving the intelligence level of these devices and enabling AI empowerment [4]. Catalyst - The iterative upgrade of Deepseek's large model performance serves as a catalyst for further advancements in the field [5].

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 ...

重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 ...

更多国泰海通研究和服务 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 ...