以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 真人实地调研，专注楼市研究10余年！大胡子教买房为您带来一手消息，助您预判楼市风向，实现资产稳步增长！ 上个月30号 ，香港《稳定币条例》 在宪报刊登生效，成为全球首个针对法币稳定币的完整监管法例。 这也是国内公布的第一个有关稳定币的法案。 无独有偶，最近京东的币链科技CEO刘鹏就披露： 港元稳定币JD-HKD已进入沙盒第二阶段测试，重点验证跨境支付与供应链金融场景。 这说明 京东也会在香港发行稳定币 。 很明显，香港，正在成为国内的稳定币中心。 稳定币最近之所以在东大这么受关注，是因为老美开始发行稳定币之后， 稳定币已经成为了两国之间货币竞争的重要工具。 大家要知道，稳定币既是一种货币，也是一种数字加密资产。 甚至如果从监管角度来看，上海比香港更适合作为东大的稳定币中心。 毕竟上海的金融监管是上头能够直接干预的，香港因为各种因素反而能约束的空间还更小。 为什么上面要选择把发行和监管稳定币的重任给到一个自由港香港 ，而不是能直接干预的金融中心上海呢？ 选择香港，最关键的一点在于： 香港，更有利于人民币国际化 谁能掌握稳定币这种数字货币的发行主导权， ...

老美是坚决反对伊L自制核武的，所以他们坚决不允许伊L哪怕拥有1%的浓缩铀。 最近 两国还因为伊L是否彻底放弃核能力开始了谈判 ， 美国当然是希望完全把伊L的核能力彻底阉割掉，但是伊L则坚持拥有铀浓缩能力是底线，两家没 有彻底谈拢，谈判进展不顺利。 黑天鹅事件来了！ 今天， 以S列 突然袭 击伊L ，不稳定的国际局势，再添一把柴火。 中东现在是全球最大的火药桶，冲突从未停止，而且随时有加剧的可能。 大家应该都留意到了，中东近几年的冲突，搞事情的一直都是以S列。 而以S列的背后是谁？ 其实大家都很清楚，就是 老美 。 没有老美撑腰，被伊斯兰国家包围的小国以S列根本不可能这么穷兵黩武。 袭击之后伊L那边也说了，以S列是在老美的支持下对伊L发动的袭击。 美国想动伊L，主要有两个方面的考虑： 一方面，是为了核安全。 既然没有谈拢，弱的不行就来硬的。 老美自己不动手，就放开掣肘让以S列干。 毕竟相比老美，其实 以S列更忌惮伊L的核能力 ，因为伊L只要拥有小型核武器，就能打到以S列 的本土，所以他们动手的决心甚至超过老美。 而且别忘了，老美在中东各国至少有64个军事基地，这些基地其实就是以S列出手的底气。 一边谈判一边打， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that in a low interest rate environment, saving money is more beneficial than investing, as banks are unable to find high-yield investment opportunities, indicating a pessimistic economic outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The two key indicators to assess the current economic situation are interest rates and gold prices [2]. - High interest rates lead to losses in savings, while low interest rates make saving more profitable [2]. - The price of gold has risen significantly from over 300 to nearly 800 per gram since 2022, reflecting a lack of stable high-yield investments [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data shows that during economic crises, such as the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices surged while other investments yielded low returns [2]. - The highest historical savings interest rates occurred in 1993, with 1-year and 5-year rates at 10.98% and 13.86%, respectively, driven by high inflation rates of 20%-30% [4]. Group 3: Saving Strategies - The primary purpose of saving money now is to preserve capital rather than to earn interest [5][6]. - Suggested saving methods include: - Keeping money in a bank for a low interest rate, with options like large time deposits offering slightly higher returns [7]. - Investing in bank stocks, which provide stable dividends of 5-8%, aligning with the trend of increased investment in bank stocks due to new regulations on public funds [8]. - Allocating funds to professional institutions for diversified asset management, which can offer lower-risk investments with guaranteed returns [9].

以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 真人实地调研，专注楼市研究10余年！大胡子教买房为您带来一手消息，助您预判楼市风向，实现资产 稳步增长！ 最近黄金的价格相比关S谈判之后稍微往上涨了一点，最新的黄金价格已经反弹到了3345元/盎 司。 但是我要提醒一下大家，现在买黄金的话，要小心B雷。 最近关于黄金投资出了一档子事，那就是 浙江黄金综合服务商 - 永坤黄金的 庞氏骗局事件。 这件事是怎么回事呢？ 简单说，就是投资人发现在永坤黄金购买的黄金产品无法提现了，平台客服电话也不再有人接 听。 一查才发现，这家黄金综合服务商不仅线下的门店没有了，据说连老板都跑路了。 这老板为什么跑路？ 因为资金链断了，同时引发了大规模的挤兑。 而且最气人的是，这老板不是没钱，他是把钱都转出去买了比特币，把钱都洗白了。 等同于这人里面赚一道、外面又赚一道。 但是机构买的不是黄金，压根没有那么多现金流兑付，最后结果就只能是B雷。 那为什么这件事引起了很多人的反响？ 因为涉及到的资金量太大，据说 涉及到了100多亿的RMB，中招的主要都是浙江本地的老板。 这些老板为什么买这个机构的黄金， 他们其实贪的不是黄金能涨 ...

其实绝大多数人对形势的判断都错了。 从加征关税、技术围堵、制裁企业，到不断叫嚣 "脱钩"。 大家都以为是懂王带着美国想要和我们断绝关系。 但最近一件事，揭开了真相。 今年 3 月，东大 大幅抛售了 189 亿美元美国国债，持有规模降至 7654 亿美元。 这是东大自 2000 年跻身美债前两大持有国之后， 25 年来首次退居全球第三，被英国反超。 减持美债，其实是一个很关键的信号，它意味着此刻 —— 不是美国在和东大脱钩，而是东大，正在悄悄与美国脱钩。 曾经，我们一直是老美最坚定的 "债主"。 时间回到2008年，金融危机席卷 全球，华尔街风雨飘摇，但当时我们选择坚定地支持美国国债—— 持仓规模一度突破1.3万亿美元，规模首次超过日本，跃居全球第一，撑起了美元信用。 但风向，从2015年开始变了。 随着两个大国之间冲突的出现，我们的战略判断在悄悄发生转向： 对美元体系的信任，不再是无条件的； 对外汇储备的构成，也不再是一成不变。 于是，美债持有比例从高点回落，中国开始温和但持续地减持美债。 持有比例从2015年震荡下行，2022年4月跌破1万亿，2024年跌破8000亿。 3月份，海外资金买入美国国债的单月净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is increasingly resembling Japan's "lost 30 years," characterized by low interest rates, low inflation, and low growth, leading to potential asset depreciation and wealth loss for the middle class [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Historical Context - Industrialized nations typically experience high growth followed by periods of recession, with wealth redistribution often resulting in middle-class impoverishment [1][2]. - Historical examples include the U.S. post-Great Depression, the U.K. during the 1970s stagflation, and Japan's economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, all of which saw significant middle-class challenges [1][2]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Economic Decline - High growth periods lead to overproduction and overinvestment, fueled by easy money, which eventually results in economic adjustments and industry corrections [2][3]. - The middle class is particularly vulnerable during these transitions, facing stagnant incomes and declining asset values while still carrying debt [3]. Group 3: Wealth Disparity and Investment Strategies - The current low-growth environment exacerbates wealth inequality, as many individuals are either in debt or losing money on risky investments [4]. - However, certain stable industries and high-dividend stocks can provide consistent returns, even in adverse economic conditions, as evidenced by Japan's high-yield stocks during its "lost 30 years" [4][5]. Group 4: Recommendations for the Middle Class - To navigate the impending wealth divide, individuals should focus on preserving wealth rather than engaging in reckless spending or investment [5]. - It is advised to allocate funds into stable, income-generating assets, similar to Japan's high-yield stocks, to ensure financial security in the coming years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that in a low interest rate environment, saving money is more beneficial than investing, as banks are unable to find high-yield investment opportunities, indicating a pessimistic economic outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The two key indicators to assess the current economic situation are interest rates and gold prices [2]. - High interest rates lead to losses in savings, while low interest rates make saving more profitable [2]. - The price of gold has risen significantly from over 300 to nearly 800 per gram since 2022, reflecting a lack of stable high-yield investments [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data shows that during economic crises, gold prices tend to rise while returns on stocks, funds, and bonds are lower than savings [2]. - The highest historical savings rates occurred in 1993, with 1-year and 5-year rates at 10.98% and 13.86%, respectively, driven by high inflation rates of 20%-30% [4]. - The period from 2011 to 2018 saw a decline in gold prices, coinciding with a rapid increase in real estate prices [3]. Group 3: Saving Strategies - The primary purpose of saving money now is to preserve capital rather than to earn interest [5][6]. - Suggested saving methods include: - Keeping money in a bank for a low interest rate, with options like large time deposits offering slightly higher returns [7]. - Investing in bank stocks, which provide stable dividends of 5-8%, aligning with the trend of increased capital flow into bank stocks due to new regulations on public funds [8]. - Allocating funds to professional institutions for diversified asset management, which can offer lower-risk investments with guaranteed returns [9].

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming trade negotiations between the US and China, focusing on specific trade issues such as China's restrictions on rare earth imports [2][4]. - The previous negotiations did not lead to a complete resolution, and significant uncertainties remain between the two countries [5][6]. - The US is seeking to ease external pressures due to internal turmoil, including issues related to immigration and national debt [8][12][15]. Group 2 - The US national debt is projected to reach $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, surpassing defense spending [17][18]. - There is a conflict between US leadership and figures like Elon Musk regarding the approach to national debt, with Musk advocating for debt reduction [18][22]. - The article highlights the importance of financial stability and the potential risks posed by US financial policies, suggesting that China is taking measures to mitigate these risks [37][41]. Group 3 - The Chinese government is consolidating financial assets through the China Investment Corporation, aiming to stabilize the capital market amid external pressures [31][34]. - The article notes that the Chinese central bank has been increasing its gold reserves, indicating a shift away from US dollar assets [44][46]. - Market sentiment appears optimistic regarding the upcoming negotiations, but the article cautions that significant differences remain, and any market gains may be temporary [48][50].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of "sales-type affordable housing" in Shenzhen marks a significant shift in the real estate market, establishing a dual-track system that separates market housing from affordable housing [1][2]. Group 1: Definition and Differences of Affordable Housing - The new affordable housing categories include public rental housing, guaranteed rental housing, and sales-type affordable housing, with the latter being sold directly to eligible residents [1]. - Sales-type affordable housing will be subject to closed management, prohibiting any conversion to market housing, contrasting with previous types like affordable housing and talent housing that allowed for such conversions after a certain period [2]. Group 2: Impact of Dual-Track System on the Real Estate Market - The dual-track system alters the logic of the current real estate market, redefining housing primarily as a living tool rather than an investment vehicle [3][4]. - This shift will lead to a gradual "de-financialization" of many properties, affecting their monetary attributes and reducing the demand for market housing as the focus shifts to affordable housing for first-time buyers [5]. - The market will see a polarization where core urban areas maintain value due to limited supply and strong demand, while peripheral cities may experience declining prices and reduced liquidity [5][6]. Group 3: Price Stability and Market Conditions - The dual-track system is not expected to significantly impact housing prices in the short term, as macroeconomic factors and liquidity issues are the primary determinants of price movements [7]. - Current market conditions indicate a stabilization phase for housing prices, with limited upward or downward movement anticipated [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy has not led to inflation despite significant increases in the money supply, indicating a disconnect between monetary expansion and consumer price increases [1][3][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, showing a lack of price increases in both consumer and producer levels [1][2]. - The broad money supply has increased from 200 trillion to 300 trillion over the past 4-5 years, indicating a substantial monetary expansion without corresponding inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Global Economic Dynamics - The trade tensions between China and the U.S. have disrupted the traditional economic model where China produces goods and the U.S. consumes them, leading to a structural imbalance in supply and demand [7][9][12]. - The imposition of tariffs has resulted in a surplus of goods in China, causing prices to drop and further weakening consumer spending [13][15]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Current government subsidies and consumption incentives are merely shifting future demand forward rather than creating new demand, as consumers with existing purchasing power are not incentivized to spend more [16][20]. - The wealth distribution issue is significant, as a small number of wealthy individuals hold a disproportionate amount of wealth, limiting overall consumer spending power [22][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies should focus on catering to the affluent consumer market, as there is potential for growth in luxury and high-end products despite overall economic stagnation [27][36]. - Exploring international markets for growth opportunities is essential, as domestic growth becomes increasingly challenging; companies should consider expanding into developing countries [37][41]. - In a deflationary environment, maintaining cash and investing in interest-bearing assets can be a prudent strategy, as money is expected to retain its value [43][44].