Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index experienced an annual increase of 16.65% to 17% by the end of 2025, with significant gains in data storage and semiconductor sectors driven by AI investment trends [1][9]. Group 1: Top Gainers in S&P 500 - SanDisk (SNDK) achieved a remarkable annual increase of 559%, although it was not officially counted in the best stocks due to its late inclusion in the index [1][21]. - Western Digital (WDC) saw a stock price surge of 268%, benefiting from strong demand for high-capacity storage solutions driven by AI data centers [11][15]. - Micron Technology (MU) recorded a 227% increase, capitalizing on the AI data wave and exceeding market expectations in its financial performance [18]. - Seagate Technology (STX) experienced a rise of 219%, with its high-margin hard disk products in demand due to AI's impact on data storage needs [15]. - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) had a gain of 186% to 226%, operating in the financial services and online trading platform sector [5]. Group 2: Top Losers in S&P 500 - The Trade Desk (TTD) faced a significant decline of 67% to 70.1%, becoming the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 due to economic uncertainties and high competition in the digital advertising sector [10][27]. - Fiserv (FISV) dropped by 67%, reflecting challenges in the fintech and payment industry [10][27]. - Deckers Outdoor (DECK) saw a decline of 49% to 56.7%, impacted by weak performance forecasts and analyst downgrades [10][27]. - Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) experienced a drop of 45% to 49%, affected by pressures in the real estate investment trust sector [10][27]. Group 3: Market Observations - The market winners in 2025 were concentrated in data storage and semiconductor sectors, benefiting from the AI-driven demand for data center infrastructure [9][10]. - Conversely, the losers were spread across digital advertising, consumer goods, real estate, and healthcare sectors, facing pressures from high interest rates and slowing consumer spending [9][10]. - The AI investment theme has shifted from technology breakthroughs to infrastructure development, indicating potential future investment opportunities in data storage and related sectors [23].

Core Viewpoint - Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA.US) stock price increased by over 25.46% following the FDA approval of its new drug Nereus, which is intended for the prevention of vomiting induced by motion [1][2]. Group 1: FDA Approval and Drug Details - The FDA approval of Nereus is based on results from three clinical studies that compared the drug group with a placebo group to assess the occurrence of vomiting [2]. - Data from the trials indicated that Nereus achieved a "significant reduction" in vomiting events and demonstrated "good safety characteristics" in short-term, acute use scenarios [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - The approval of Nereus is expected to provide a new commercialization growth point for the company and further enrich its product portfolio in the central nervous system and related indications [2].

Core Viewpoint - Outlook Therapeutics announced that the FDA issued a Complete Response Letter (CRL) regarding its BLA for ONS-5010/LYTENAVA™, indicating that the application for treating wet age-related macular degeneration (wAMD) cannot be approved in its current form [2][3]. Group 1: FDA Response and Company Position - The FDA's CRL stated that the additional data provided in the BLA did not alter the previous review conclusion, despite a well-controlled study demonstrating efficacy. The FDA recommended submitting confirmatory evidence to support the application but did not specify what type of evidence would be acceptable [3][8]. - The CEO of Outlook Therapeutics expressed disappointment with the FDA's decision but reaffirmed the company's commitment to obtaining approval in the U.S. and emphasized the clinical need and commercial potential for a specifically formulated bevacizumab product for intravitreal use [6][11]. Group 2: Clinical Trial Data - The resubmission of the BLA for ONS-5010 was based on the complete dataset from the NORSE clinical trial program, which included successful results from the NORSE TWO pivotal trial and additional safety and efficacy data from other NORSE trials [8]. - The NORSE TWO trial demonstrated significant efficacy, and the company believes that the complete dataset supports the BLA for approval in the U.S. [8]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Product Launch - LYTENAVA™ has received marketing authorization in the EU and the UK for treating wAMD, with plans to launch in Germany and the UK by June 2025 [11][19]. - The product is positioned as a cost-effective, first-line treatment option for healthcare professionals and patients, with potential gross peak sales exceeding $300 million across Germany and the UK, representing over 50% of the total opportunity in Western Europe [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Axsome Therapeutics has received priority review designation from the FDA for its AXS-05 application aimed at treating agitation in Alzheimer's disease, with a target action date set for April 30, 2026, leading to a significant stock price increase of 22.75% and a market capitalization of $9.2 billion [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Axsome Therapeutics (NASDAQ: AXSM) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on treating central nervous system (CNS) diseases, with AXS-05 being a key product under review for Alzheimer's agitation [3][5]. - The company was founded by Herriot Tabuteau, who has a background in both medicine and finance, allowing for a unique perspective on project evaluation [6][8]. - Axsome's growth strategy targets the significant unmet medical needs in CNS disorders, with an estimated 150 million people in the U.S. affected by conditions like depression and Alzheimer's [9]. Group 2: Product Development and Financials - AXS-05 is a novel oral investigational drug combining dextromethorphan and bupropion, currently in development for treating agitation in Alzheimer's disease and smoking cessation [5]. - The company has not yet achieved profitability, reporting a net loss of $247 million for the 12 months ending June 2025, but has generated $495 million in revenue, reflecting a 70% year-over-year increase [10]. - The company aims to push five new drugs to approval by 2028, with peak sales potential for its existing product portfolio estimated at $16.5 billion [10]. Group 3: Key Products and Market Position - Auvelity, Axsome's flagship antidepressant, shows rapid efficacy within one week, contrasting with traditional antidepressants that take 6-8 weeks, leading to a stock surge of 65% post-approval [11]. - The company executed a strategic acquisition of Sunosi for $53 million, later recouping $66 million by transferring rights in Europe and the Middle East, showcasing effective financial maneuvering [11]. - The upcoming AXS-05 approval could fill a significant market gap for treating agitation in Alzheimer's, addressing the limitations of current antipsychotic medications [11].

Core Viewpoint - Corcept Therapeutics has received a complete response letter from the FDA indicating that its new drug application for Relacorilant has not been approved for treating secondary hypertension caused by hypercortisolism [2][4]. Group 1: FDA Response and Clinical Trials - The FDA confirmed that Corcept's pivotal GRACE clinical trial met its primary endpoint, and the data from the GRADIENT trial is considered confirmatory [4]. - However, the FDA requires additional evidence of efficacy to support a favorable benefit-risk assessment for the therapy [4]. - Corcept has conducted multiple clinical trials related to Cushing's syndrome [12]. Group 2: Patient Outcomes - Improvements in blood sugar control have been observed in patients [6]. - Significant enhancements in patients' quality of life and cognitive assessments have been reported [9]. Group 3: Future Development Plans - Corcept's CEO expressed surprise and disappointment at the FDA's decision and stated that the company will meet with the FDA to discuss the best path forward [16]. - Relacorilant is a selective glucocorticoid receptor antagonist being developed not only for endogenous hypercortisolism but also for ovarian cancer and other diseases [16]. - The PDUFA date for the application concerning platinum-resistant ovarian cancer is set for July 11, 2026, with market approval expected by the end of 2026 [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026, driven by tax cuts and potential government spending increases, despite concerns about tariffs and inflation [3][10]. Economic Growth Predictions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen predicts accelerated economic growth starting in 2026, supported by the tax cut law "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (BBB), which is expected to provide a stimulus equivalent to 0.3% of GDP [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's survey indicates a potential slowdown in economic growth to 1.8% in 2026 due to policy confusion and tariff pressures [3]. - The annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.3%, indicating a healthy economic environment prior to potential disruptions from government shutdowns [3]. Government Spending and Taxation - The Hutchins Center estimates that government spending restoration could provide an additional GDP stimulus of 0.6% alongside the tax refunds [4]. - A significant reduction in IRS budget could lead to increased tax evasion, potentially impacting GDP by 0.25% or more [4]. Tariff Implications - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts tariff revenues to reach $215 billion by 2026, which could indirectly affect consumer purchasing power through higher prices [6]. - The Supreme Court's potential ruling on tariffs could necessitate refunds for companies that paid illegal tariffs, impacting GDP by approximately 0.5% [6][7]. Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, the lowest since 2022, indicating a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy [7]. - Predictions suggest that the S&P 500 index could rise by 9% in 2026, which would enhance household wealth and stimulate consumer spending [9]. Global Economic Context - Analysts predict that 2026 could witness strong international economic growth, driven by fiscal expansions in Germany and consumer stimulus reforms in China [10]. - Current Brent crude oil prices are at $61 per barrel, near a four-year low, which could further support economic growth [10]. Labor Market and Inflation Concerns - Despite a tight labor market, strong wage growth suggests resilience rather than weakness, although low hiring numbers remain a concern [10]. - The article warns that combining fiscal and monetary stimulus could reignite concerns over government debt, potentially undermining the credibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation target [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a series of predictions for 2026, covering various global political, economic, and technological trends, highlighting uncertainties and potential developments in multiple sectors. Trade and Tariffs - Trump's tariff policies are unlikely to raise average tariff levels above current rates due to complexities and market reactions, including stock market declines and consumer price increases [4][5]. Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine is not expected to concede the Donbas region in peace negotiations, as military and political factors make such a concession too risky for President Zelensky [5]. - The U.S. Republican Party is predicted to lose control of the House in the upcoming midterm elections, allowing the Democratic Party to block Trump's agenda [5]. Technology and Investment - The artificial intelligence bubble is expected to burst by 2026, with significant losses anticipated for venture capital and private equity, particularly affecting smaller companies [5]. - Home robots are anticipated to become available, with a startup accepting pre-orders for a humanoid robot priced at $20,000, expected to be delivered by 2026 [11]. Currency and Economic Trends - The Chinese yuan is not expected to appreciate significantly, with a projected exchange rate of 7.01 against the dollar, and a one-year forward rate of 6.89 [7]. - Africa's economic growth is expected to slightly surpass Asia's, driven by structural reforms and favorable fiscal policies, despite ongoing challenges [12]. Financial Markets - Gold prices are projected to rise, potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases and as a hedge against economic uncertainties [12]. - The likelihood of a significant increase in private credit defaults is high, as companies struggle with rising interest rates, leading to potential bankruptcies [10]. Political Landscape - France is not expected to hold early elections, as political focus shifts towards the 2027 presidential elections [6]. - The leadership of the UK Labour Party may face challenges following poor performance in local elections, with potential for internal strife [9].

对一些人来说，家才是新年派对所在的地方。图片来源：Lexey Swall /《纽约时报》 艾莉森·克鲁格（Alyson Krueger） 阿比盖尔·塔夫茨（Abigail Tufts）迫不及待地盼着跨年夜的到来。 这位36岁的纽约市民、公关公司创始人说，过去几年，她都会"穿上亮片礼服、化好妆、穿上舞 会长裙"去参加派对。 但今年——无论在职业还是个人生活上都格外艰难的一年——她决定彻底跳过所有庆祝活动，独 自一人去电影院观看《怪奇物语》第五季的大结局。 When the Best New Year's Plans Are No New Year's Plans 许多人选择避开喧嚣——这要么是他们由来已久的传统，要么是因为今年有了不同的心态。 但今年她的感觉只有一个字："唉。"她进一步解释道："最近的新闻让我有点心力交瘁，而 且……每年的计划从来就没按预期实现过，差得可远了。" 因此，她对2026年的唯一计划就是"顺其自然"——从跨年夜就开始践行：她打算和伴侣一起待 在纽约家中，开一瓶好酒，点个披萨。 她不打算回顾过去一年，也不打算立新年决心。"我简直等不及要关掉手机了，"她说。 一 直 以 来 ， 总 有 一 ...

Group 1 - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.US) plans to reject Paramount's (PSKY.US) revised acquisition offer, as the board has not made a final decision yet [1][3] - Paramount has not increased its offer, which Warner Bros. previously deemed inferior to Netflix's (NFLX.US) proposal [3][4] - Paramount's latest offer includes a cash bid of $30 per share and a personal guarantee of $40.4 billion in equity financing from Oracle founder Larry Ellison [3] Group 2 - Warner Bros. board is waiting for Paramount to improve the financial terms of its offer, with shareholders expecting more funding from Paramount [4] - Concerns exist that a deal with Paramount could restrict Warner Bros. from managing its debt without Ellison's approval, and Paramount has not guaranteed to cover the breakup fee owed to Netflix [4] - Warner Bros. argues that Netflix's offer is superior for various reasons, including Paramount's potential debt burden and plans for further job cuts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of participants believe that if inflation gradually decreases as expected, it may be appropriate to further cut interest rates, with most supporting a rate cut in December [1][4][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Most participants support a rate cut in December, although a few indicated they might have supported holding rates steady after careful consideration [4][7] - Some decision-makers suggest that a pause in rate cuts for some time could allow for assessment of the recent neutral policy stance's impact on the labor market and economic activity [4][6] - The minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to cut rates, with the largest dissent seen in 37 years [5][9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Participants noted that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level, while economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [6][9] - There is an observed slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing as of September, leading to increased downside risks in employment [6][9] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Risks - Most participants believe that cutting rates could help prevent deterioration in the labor market, while some express concerns about entrenched inflation risks [8][9] - There is a notable division among decision-makers regarding which poses a greater threat to the economy: inflation or unemployment, with many believing that a shift to a more neutral policy stance could help prevent severe labor market deterioration [9] Group 4: Reserve Management - The minutes confirm that reserve balances have fallen to adequate levels, prompting the Federal Reserve to begin purchasing short-term government bonds to manage reserves [10]